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 Post subject: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:10 pm 
* Capt'n Dom *
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DVOA be damned. This is very disturbing... As Per Sando.. .

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Seattle has fallen from second in yards per carry allowed through Week 6 to 32nd in that category since Week 7, when San Francisco rolled up 175 yards rushing against the Seahawks


http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/85518/overlooked-area-favors-49ers-vs-seahawks

Our defense HAD a physical identity, it doesnt anymore. I have not seen that physicality, that nastyness, or that presence that they had at the beginging of the season.

We are winning right now. But this fact still bugs me. Maybe the think tank has some ideas as to why teams have been gashing us since the 49ers did?

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:13 pm 
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I don't care about stats. I've seen breakdowns on FG about this, and it is because of our young LB's not being assignment correct. They are fixing this problem, so it is all good. It is certainly not as bad as it was a few weeks ago, or in the Vikes game.


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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:14 pm 
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I got nothing, and you are right. They HAD that identity and now it's gone. I can't imagine why it would drastically change seemingly over night, and not get fixed.


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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:15 pm 
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hawksfan515 wrote:
I don't care about stats. I've seen breakdowns on FG about this, and it is because of our young LB's not being assignment correct. They are fixing this problem, so it is all good. It is certainly not as bad as it was a few weeks ago, or in the Vikes game.


Well the Vikes game was one thing. Adrian Peterson.

That dude is flat out scary.


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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:19 pm 
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Now I aint bitching about this team. I love what I am seeing all over the place. I just want our defense to get that nastyness back that they definately had early in the season. I want Dirtbags!

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:19 pm 
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bellingerga wrote:
hawksfan515 wrote:
I don't care about stats. I've seen breakdowns on FG about this, and it is because of our young LB's not being assignment correct. They are fixing this problem, so it is all good. It is certainly not as bad as it was a few weeks ago, or in the Vikes game.


Well the Vikes game was one thing. Adrian Peterson.

That dude is flat out scary.


Trust me though, I have seen the breakdowns, and we truly were horrible in our gaps. Peterson's longest run? We had massive penetration by our DT's on that play. Leroy Hill took a shallow angle, allowed Peterson to bounce it to the outside, and bam, he's gone! Almost.


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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:27 pm 
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The only stat I have EVER given a real rip about is wins. Dead serious.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:29 pm 
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So does it matter that Minnesota, San Francisco and Buffalo are the top-3 teams in rushing average for the season - and we have played all three during that span? Does it matter that we shut down all three passing games when we did play? Also, does it matter that we have only faced 1 bottom-10 rushing average team over that time?

I would be on board if we played Jacksonville, Dallas etc. (the bottom) and were giving up that kind of yardage/carry - but to AP? I mean dude is super human.

This is the same as when our passing game gave up big yards to Stafford and Brady - it was inevitable. You have an average day against those guys and they will get you.

This thread seems a little bit like an overreaction to a stat that is a little bit out of context. We have played a tough schedule this year and DVOA reflects that.

I maintain the only anomaly to our defense so far has been the 4th quarter of the Miami game. That was the worst quarter I have seen this defense play in a long time.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:32 pm 
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I fully expect this upcoming game to be very physical on both sides of the ball. The Seahawks players know what's up -- and what will happen if they don't bring the wood.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:32 pm 
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TDOTSEAHAWK wrote:
So does it matter that Minnesota, San Francisco and Buffalo are the top-3 teams in rushing average for the season - and we have played all three during that span? Does it matter that we shut down all three passing games when we did play? Also, does it matter that we have only faced 1 bottom-10 rushing average team over that time?

I would be on board if we played Jacksonville, Dallas etc. (the bottom) and were giving up that kind of yardage/carry - but to AP? I mean dude is super human.

This is the same as when our passing game gave up big yards to Stafford and Brady - it was inevitable. You have an average day against those guys and they will get you.

This thread seems a little bit like an overreaction to a stat that is a little bit out of context. We have played a tough schedule this year and DVOA reflects that.

I maintain the only anomaly to our defense so far has been the 4th quarter of the Miami game. That was the worst quarter I have seen this defense play in a long time.



I understand we have played good running teams. But to drop to worst in the league? I expected us to give up some yards to teams but not to be the worst. This is not an overreaction. It is a legit concern.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:35 pm 
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Techworlds, I think Seattle's defense has weathered the storm pretty well considering they have gone up against some pretty prolific offenses. They are fast, and IMHO play with an attitude. Just wait until this Sunday.

Godspeed DVOA Godspeed.


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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:37 pm 
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Can somebody please tell me what DVOA is? What is the abbreviation stand for and what the heck is it?!

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:37 pm 
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Last...since week 7 - a small sample size which includes the three teams I mentioned. We are still 10th in the league in yards allowed per game - even if the average dropped.

When we played some of the worst teams in the league for rush average - Dallas, Arizona we were fine. Moreover, During our latest Arizona game - they got 40 yards on the ground.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:40 pm 
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End of the 2nd qt against buffalo was pretty bad as well.


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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:41 pm 
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sturg78 wrote:
End of the 2nd qt against buffalo was pretty bad as well.


Yeah, but then we shut them out in the second half. As well we were up by a ton - I think we needed half time to refocus.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:47 pm 
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oldhawkfan wrote:
Can somebody please tell me what DVOA is? What is the abbreviation stand for and what the heck is it?!


I'd link you to football outsiders where you could read about it and get a better description than anyone here could really give you but their site is down at the moment. Think of it like ESPN's new Total QBR on steroids. It's an in depth value based analysis of every play of every game every week, weighted towards the end of the season, so results from week 1-3 aren't nearly as important as results from weeks 15-17, actually I think DVOA might actually drop the first weeks of the season all together from their analysis by the end of the season, not 100% on that though. Right now Seattle has the 9th best DVOA in the history of DVOA for as far back as the guys at Football Outsiders have had time to chart through this point in the season. We're #2 in the NFL behind only the Patriots for the season right now in DVOA.


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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:48 pm 
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oldhawkfan wrote:
Can somebody please tell me what DVOA is? What is the abbreviation stand for and what the heck is it?!


It's the art of figuring out how good of a performance a player/unit/team has while factoring in their opponent, created by Football Outsiders. Example: QB 1 takes 3 sacks, and QB 2 takes 2 sacks. All other stats are identical. QB 1 could have a better rating despite taking more sacks if he faced a defense that rushes the passer well, and QB 2 faced a defense with bad pass rushing. They factor in like everything under the sun to come up with weighted values.

DVOA explained: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/s ... clnk&gl=us

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:48 pm 
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TDOTSEAHAWK wrote:
Last...since week 7 - a small sample size which includes the three teams I mentioned. We are still 10th in the league in yards allowed per game - even if the average dropped.

When we played some of the worst teams in the league for rush average - Dallas, Arizona we were fine. Moreover, During our latest Arizona game - they got 40 yards on the ground.


So I guess we will get gashed again this Sunday since the Ninners are so good running the ball? So I guess our average will get even worse.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:57 pm 
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For whatever reason the rush defense has gone from excellent to terrible in the 2nd half of the season in each of Carroll's seasons here. At first we thought it was because of Red Bryant's injury in 2010. Then it happened with a healthy Bryant in 2011 and again with a healthy Bryant right now.

There are a lot of theories- maybe our line is getting tired. Maybe our LBs are missing assignments (Wagner never was a stellar run defender in college). And maybe the faster RBs (Peterson, Spiller) are just designed to give our plus sized defense problems. Maybe we faced easy opponents early and tougher opponents late.

It's true that our defense isn't very good right now. For a while it felt like 31 points wouldn't be enough in the Buffalo game.

Something to remember though-a bad game here and there are just a drop in the bucket compared to an entire season. Seattle's defense is allowing around 16 points a game on average. That means they've had a lot more good days than bad ones. Though they've certainly been bad lately.


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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:23 pm 
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We're tied for 1st place in the league @ 15.6 points per game with San Francisco. They've allowed a league-low 218 points on the season, and we've allowed 219. Lol.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:24 pm 
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Good God! That's way too much info on that link to be reading tonight. I guess if I have trouble sleeping I could attempt to brush up on DVOA.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:35 pm 
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It sure feels way different. At the beginning of the season I was 100% convinced that nobody could run on us when Red was in there, period. After the 49's game, it seems like something was exposed. There are flashes of that still but it is not consistent. It seemed the first few games that people tried to run a few times and then just gave up. Then, the only time they would get yardage was on obvious passing downs. I think/hope that PC and Gus know what the long-term solution is for that and what needs to be done in the off season to correct it. Is Mebane's health an issue? He was giving us 2-3 Wow! moments a game early in the season and is hardly noticed these days. It's certainly not doom and gloom or anything but it is an area of concern going forward.


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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:58 pm 
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This thread is...much ado about something not as big as it may first seem. Roland pointed it out, we have given up the second fewest points on the season, by exactly ONE.

We are not giving up long touchdown runs. The points per game we give up remain pretty much unchanged since the opening several weeks.

We do have a weakness in the linebackers run gaps and pass coverage, just like we have a weakness at nickel. Combine that with Red's less effective play while he is hurt, and it looks bad on the ol' run yardage chart. But we are not getting gashed by bad run teams, and we are not, and this is most important, getting scores thrown on us by pass teams. Miami is the outlier, and granted, it looked bad, but the D has been better since.

Yes, San Fran ran on us. to the tune of 14 points.
Yes, Adrian Peterson ran on us. to the tune of 20 points. Losing KJ early on hurt, but look at what he did to the Rams this weekend. Dude is good. having an MVP season if you ask me.
Yes CJ Spiller ran on us. 17 points.
Yes, Chicago ran on us on that shitty field. And scored 17.

Miami is the one game where we played bad D all around against a bad team, and I kinda think it was good for this team. They have been galvanized ever since. And with the offense putting pressure on other teams, only the most committed coaching staffs will stick with the run. The Niners are that, but history suggests that if they don't combine that run with an effective pass attack, it will not result in tons of points.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:00 pm 
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Tech Worlds wrote:
DVOA be damned. This is very disturbing... As Per Sando.. .

Quote:
Seattle has fallen from second in yards per carry allowed through Week 6 to 32nd in that category since Week 7, when San Francisco rolled up 175 yards rushing against the Seahawks


http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/85518/overlooked-area-favors-49ers-vs-seahawks

I don't see how that contradicts DVOA in any way. Seattle is ranked 16th in run defense, and I remember them being ranked in the top 3 midway through the season. For them to have dropped so much their week 7-14 run defense DVOA should be near the bottom of the league, just as your stats indicate.


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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:26 pm 
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I don't know about this we're gonna get gashed thing...The niner rushing game has not looked the same to me this year with the injuries they have sustained. One thing is for sure and that is the Seahawks will be prepared for what's coming this time.

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 Post subject: Re: I dont care about DVOA
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:26 pm 
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I think teams have figured out how to attack that front seven and expose our young linebackers and our below average veteran(Hill). Its all part of the constant chess match that is the NFL. Teams probed around and found a couple plays that worked, like belly plays out of the shotgun and trap plays. Our young linebackers got exposed a little, and I feel now they are starting to adjust.

Depth up front was an issue in the middle part of the year, but I think they are developing a more solid rotation to keep guys fresh.

What we are seeing schematically lately in the running game is the adjustment to the leagues adjustment to the Hawks scheme. Then, there will be adjustments off the adjustment to the adjustment and so on and so on. That's what makes football beautiful.

Also, I mentioned this when the offense was struggling early, we played some great defenses early in the year, and we've played some great running teams towards the second half of the year, including the team that's waltzing in Sunday night. Even the Patriots are deceptively good at running the football. This will lead to the stats skewing one way or the other.

I do agree about the seeming lack of an attitude up front. I think we saw them get it back a little against the Cardinals, and dammit I hope they bring it full force against the Niners.


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