Oct. 18 Seattle
5:25 p.m. at San Francisco
Favorite SFO SFO SFO
Point spread -7 -7 -7
Total 37½o/u 38o/u 37½o/u
Total money line -110 -110 -110

http://www.vegas.com/gaming/

wow, that seems really really high

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That's just silly right there.

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"WE ALL WE GOT! WE ALL WE NEED!"

Good. Post that spread on the locker room wall.

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Thats what i was thinking... might be a good one to bet huh?

I'm leaning towards the Niners straight up this week, but 7 points? I think that's a bit much. We just don't lose by that much. We are built for close games. Win or lose, most of our games will be within one score. Take the Hawks and the points

Just after I made my previous post, they were talking to Clayton on KIRO and they asked him who he thought would win and he was quick to pick the Niners. By the end of the conversation they mentioned that Vegas had the Niners at 7-1/2 and he said he'd take the Seahawks with the points. I don't think Clayton is a bettors guru, but since it happened just when this thread got kickin' I thought it was worth noting

Perfect. Keep us as the underdogs.

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As much as I love Clayton, he needs to stick to reporting and not analyzing. For whatever reason, ESPN has pushed him over into that realm more and more, and he continues to stick his foot in his mouth.

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7 seems pretty steep to me. Bet it comes down a bunch by thursday.

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Still missing you everyday pal.

It was seven and a half before I posted it and it just went down to seven... the masses must be listening to professor clayton

If I were in Vegas I'd be placing my wager this week. We have a legitimate shot of winning it straight up, but with our defense we will be keeping games VERY close all year long

I love being underdogs

We were underdogs in the:

Patriots game
Cowboys game
Panthers game
Packers game

Favored in:

Cards game
Rams game?

Record as underdog- 4-0

Record when favored- 0-2

I see a trend......

I think that's a very good number. First, there are many more Niner fans than Hawk fans, that along with SF's closer proximity to Vegas influences the line maker. They know more money is likely to come in on the Niners and need to find balance so both teams take the exact (if possible) amount of action.

You have to think homefield in this league is worth no less than 4 pts (I'd give the Clink closer to 6). So basically, the book is only suggesting SF is a FG better than us and that is hard to argue.

A savvy bettor might buy that 7 up to 7.5 and bet the Hawks. If a Niner bettor, I'd buy it down to 6.5. I'm not that savvy and I believe we will win this outright, so I'd jettison the points and place my money on the moneyline. Unsure what it's paying but if the spread is 7...the odds on the moneyline must be attractive.

i thought someone stated 8.5 ? on sunday right before the games started.

Ya I believe vegas gives 3.5 automatically for home field advantage so to say the niners are 3.5 favorites isn't that egregious.

Not the biggest insult out there- but it's not personal with Vegas - it's about where the money goes.

The 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle does. Therefore, the number has to be set where Vegas feels they can get a fairly equal number of bettors on either side - that way they take "the vig" no matter who wins. If you could earn 5% on your money every week, you'd do it to. Just good economics.

As a handicapper, peering into these numbers, I'd say "don't bet on this game" because the emotions are too high. The Seahawks have shown a propensity of turning the ball over on the road, and also the 49ers have shown they can sting us with special teams plays. This blows up the number and makes it almost better to bet with the 49ers due to recent history. However, Seattle has been stingy with D, solid on ST and been in position to win all 6 games in the 4th quarter this year - which says take the 7.

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I agree with the emotional impact on this game (as mentioned above). It's a smart bettor that stays away from these 'only game of the day' games. A generous portion of our society is none to bright and will always bet on a game just because they can see the action unfold on TV.

There was a time I made a lot of money betting on (or against) teams like Brown, Colgate and Yale. Pressed to get their lines out, the books don't spend much time with games like these and that's where the lines are weak and can be exploited. Don't bet (serious money) on a game because it's your team or because it's on TV. Just don't.

It's a pretty fair line. HFA is worth 3 points in the betting market. Being a home team on a Thursday night game is probably worth a couple more points. This line looks like the 49ers would be favored by about 2-3 against the Hawks on a neutral field, which seems fair at this point. If this was a Sunday game, it wouldn't be a 7 point line.


This is wrong. If you could earn 0 half of the weeks, and 20% on your money the other half of the weeks, that is better economics than earning 5% every week. Also, a fairly equal number of betters doesn't mean a fairly equal amount of money being wagered on each side. A hundred $10 bets on one side have the same impact as one $1000 bet on the other side. Sportsbooks can never assume that they will get an even amount of money on both sides of a given event. Say the MGM or whatever casino actually gets a near even amount of money on both sides throughout the week. Then Floyd Mayweather comes in 30 minutes before kickoff and places a $500,000 bet on one side. Now what? The key to sportsbooks making money consistently is setting accurate lines, which they do. If the lines aren't accurate, the sharp bettors will exploit them and win in the long run.

we have won every game we were expected to lose and loss the 2 we were expected to win so this is fine with me