Poll:: More Blitz, Or Less?

I mentioned in another thread today how sacks are drive-killers and it got me to wondering what the statistic would be for 1st downs after sacks. I don't really like stats because they often leave out significant amounts of criteria, but there are also some stats that are fairly straightforward, 1st down probability being one of those. At the risk of stating the obvious, sacks significantly decrease your odds of getting a 1st down but by how much? Of course it depends on how far you have to go and what down it is but here is a graph (attached) that displays 1st down probability by yds needed.

As you can see for yourself, after 1st down sack w/18 yds to go your chance of achieving a 1st down is about 35%, and a 2nd down sack w/12 yds to go your chances are 30%. Then for 3rd down the only stat that would apply is the percentage that is successful and of course there are too many variables to list here. The point is: what would you like to see the Seahawks do, blitz more or less? http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2014/03 ... ility.html

More please, but you have to pick your spots. If you do that effectively "the fear of a blitz" can be just as effective as a real blitz.

Very cool chart - thank you

Sports Hernia":1xm2jq83 said:

More please, but you have to pick your spots. If you do that effectively "the fear of a blitz" can be just as effective as a real blitz.

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We are surprisingly effective sending guys like Kam, Bobby Wagner and ET at times especially on run blitz. I'd like to see if Kam could time his run/jump over the line again this year. 8)

Speaking of sacks I'm sure many of you remember the Seahawk's first sackmaster, Jacob Green. We talk about M Bennett being productive last year w/10 sacks but Jacob had 16 sacks way back in '83 and that was in a time when they didn't throw the ball as much as they do now. Green went on to post sacks of 13, 13.5, and 12 for four straight years of double-digit sacks. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... eeJa01.htm

Significantly More.I really wish Richard would toughen up his base scheme. Cover 2/3 is just such too soft. I loved Quinn's press man scheme. Less vanilla, more blitzes and more press coverage.

I love the corner and safety blitzes. Teams don't expect us to do that because we are so stubbornly set in our defensive ways.

I think we need to add some wrinkles.

We "should" have won the fist game against the Rams last season on Cary Williams' blitz/strip sack/fumble return TD. We have also seen it a few times this pre-season.

Thepeelsessions":3jdmduio said:

Significantly More.I really wish Richard would toughen up his base scheme. Cover 2/3 is just such too soft. I loved Quinn's press man scheme. Less vanilla, more blitzes and more press coverage.

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IIRC Richard blitzes more than Quinn. Quinn was blessed with an elite 6 man deep line and didn't blitz much at all. Richard sends more people from more places more often.

At least, that's what I understood to be the case.

Thepeelsessions":3o0bb2k1 said:

Significantly More.I really wish Richard would toughen up his base scheme. Cover 2/3 is just such too soft. I loved Quinn's press man scheme. Less vanilla, more blitzes and more press coverage.

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This^ I hate when our Cbs play off the receiver. I want to see more of them jamming them off the line, and making the receiver beat them.

McGruff":25qinpti said:

Thepeelsessions":25qinpti said:

Significantly More.I really wish Richard would toughen up his base scheme. Cover 2/3 is just such too soft. I loved Quinn's press man scheme. Less vanilla, more blitzes and more press coverage.

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IIRC Richard blitzes more than Quinn. Quinn was blessed with an elite 6 man deep line and didn't blitz much at all. Richard sends more people from more places more often.

At least, that's what I understood to be the case.

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True. Quinn used a base press man scheme. Richard uses a cover 2/3 with more blitzing, but it's still not enough.

I like when we show a certain blitz, they audible and adjust to counter, then we back out of it.

Bliss.

HoustonHawk82":1x44mnj5 said:

I like when we show a certain blitz, they audible and adjust to counter, then we back out of it.

Bliss.

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Good thing there's a play clock, could turn into a real Mexican standoff.

Hopefully much less. That means our front four is getting home. If we are blitzing much more often, that probably isn't a good sign.

Tical21":372zop7s said:

Hopefully much less. That means our front four is getting home. If we are blitzing much more often, that probably isn't a good sign.

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My thoughts exactly.

McGruff":2ud51qsu said:

Tical21":2ud51qsu said:

Hopefully much less. That means our front four is getting home. If we are blitzing much more often, that probably isn't a good sign.

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My thoughts exactly.

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Ideally, I think you two are spot-on, but I think the overwhelming response for more blitz is in response to there being periods last year where it didn't seem that we getting good pressure on the QB. Granted, Bennett had a great year and Avril is obviously very serviceable but there still were significant periods where the opposing QB was able to pick us apart at will.

Give me an Avril, Bennett, Jefferson, Clark line, with a little Marsh throw in at OLB, and let's see what they can do before we sell out blitz. I like our guys this year better than last.

I don't want us to turn into the 2015 Cardinals where we have to blitz on 60% of our snaps to get pressure on the QB.

McGruff":2rpi60x6 said:

Give me an Avril, Bennett, Jefferson, Clark line, with a little Marsh throw in at OLB, and let's see what they can do before we sell out blitz. I like our guys this year better than last.

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I voted slightly less blitzes because I feel we will get better pressure with 4 this year than last.


One stat that stood out to me on that chart

It is more likely to convert on 3rd and 9 or less by running the ball not passing.

Wenhawk":3lhngp7p said:

McGruff":3lhngp7p said:

Give me an Avril, Bennett, Jefferson, Clark line, with a little Marsh throw in at OLB, and let's see what they can do before we sell out blitz. I like our guys this year better than last.

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I voted slightly less blitzes because I feel we will get better pressure with 4 this year than last.


One stat that stood out to me on that chart

It is more likely to convert on 3rd and 9 or less by running the ball not passing.

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Yes, slightly, but remember your chances of converting are only about 35% either way. The author talks about some surprising findings in the article in the link. I don't think that stat would suggest that it is preferable to run or even that they are equal. It may mean that given the odds are against converting and a run could catch a defense off guard. It also may not account for a much larger pass v run sampling. I think it is a statistical anomaly.