dogorama
New member
I mentioned in another thread today how sacks are drive-killers and it got me to wondering what the statistic would be for 1st downs after sacks. I don't really like stats because they often leave out significant amounts of criteria, but there are also some stats that are fairly straightforward, 1st down probability being one of those. At the risk of stating the obvious, sacks significantly decrease your odds of getting a 1st down but by how much? Of course it depends on how far you have to go and what down it is but here is a graph (attached) that displays 1st down probability by yds needed.
As you can see for yourself, after 1st down sack w/18 yds to go your chance of achieving a 1st down is about 35%, and a 2nd down sack w/12 yds to go your chances are 30%. Then for 3rd down the only stat that would apply is the percentage that is successful and of course there are too many variables to list here. The point is: what would you like to see the Seahawks do, blitz more or less? http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2014/03 ... ility.html
As you can see for yourself, after 1st down sack w/18 yds to go your chance of achieving a 1st down is about 35%, and a 2nd down sack w/12 yds to go your chances are 30%. Then for 3rd down the only stat that would apply is the percentage that is successful and of course there are too many variables to list here. The point is: what would you like to see the Seahawks do, blitz more or less? http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2014/03 ... ility.html