GilBrandt-Panthers, Seahawks have biggest Super Bowl windows

"The Panthers' exceptionally sizable window for Super Bowl contention got me thinking about the windows of the league's other legitimate contenders -- specifically, which other teams have the biggest? That is, which teams are best set up to compete for a title for the longest time frame from 2016 on?"


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... wl-windows

I find it funny how many other teams fanbases think the Seahawks are in decline because they only won 10 games this year. The core of this team is just entering its prime. Fact is that even after all the games this team has won including a Super Bowl they may have not have even reached their ceiling yet.

The Panthers are a good team with a good young core of talent, but their 15-1 season is arguably the greatest outlier season in NFL history. They were returning a worse team on paper than one that went 7-8-1 the year before, and have come so close to a perfect 19-0 with that flawed team. I can only imagine the mathematical probability of that happening, how many season simulations of a 7-8-1 team missing their best weapon all year had them going 15-1? Maybe 1 in a 1000?

And when you look at Carolina's record in close games and then remember that they were #1 in turnover margin by a mile (both stats that are heavily luck based), it has all the tell tale signs of a fluke season. Which is probably why DVOA has been slow to crown them all year long. They are a good team, but "Super Bowl Window" talk for a team like this is not appropriate. The Panthers are a good but not great NFL franchise coming off one of the most charmed seasons in NFL history.

I think they will be a perennial playoff team due to the fact that the NFC South is so awful, but I think their fortunes will mirror the Lovie Smith Bears teams: alternating between mediocre and dominant every other season.

kearly":dfavfphw said:

The Panthers are a good team with a good young core of talent, but their 15-1 season is arguably the greatest outlier season in NFL history. They were returning a worse team on paper than one that went 7-8-1 the year before, and have come so close to a perfect 19-0 with that flawed team. I can only imagine the mathematical probability of that happening, how many season simulations of a 7-8-1 team missing their best weapon all year had them going 15-1? Maybe 1 in a 1000?

I think they will be a perennial playoff team due to the fact that the NFC South is so awful, but I think their fortunes will mirror the Lovie Smith Bears teams: alternating between mediocre and dominant every other season.

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Well, that's why the games aren't decided on paper.

Cam Newton was injured the entire 7-8-1 season. When he was able to play, he was getting destroyed thanks to one of the worst offensive lines through the first 8 weeks.


The Panthers should actually be better next season as they get Kelvin Benjamin back and actually have more cap room to work with than they have had since 2011.

kearly":6bhb29th said:

And when you look at Carolina's record in close games and then remember that they were #1 in turnover margin by a mile (both stats that are heavily luck based), it has all the tell tale signs of a fluke season. Which is probably why DVOA has been slow to crown them all year long. They are a good team, but "Super Bowl Window" talk for a team like this is not appropriate. The Panthers are a good but not great NFL franchise coming off one of the most charmed seasons in NFL history.
.

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turnovers and winning close games are luck based now?

lol ok

Cary Kollins":3iizrdmh said:

kearly":3iizrdmh said:

And when you look at Carolina's record in close games and then remember that they were #1 in turnover margin by a mile (both stats that are heavily luck based), it has all the tell tale signs of a fluke season. Which is probably why DVOA has been slow to crown them all year long. They are a good team, but "Super Bowl Window" talk for a team like this is not appropriate. The Panthers are a good but not great NFL franchise coming off one of the most charmed seasons in NFL history.
.

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turnovers and winning close games are luck based now?

lol ok

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Most either don't know or choose to forget that Cam and Rivera were 2-14 in one score games at one point. Even if they only win 3 of those 14 they're a .500 team in the first two years right out of the shoot. At the time, Cam haters had a field day with that one, ignoring the realities of the growing pains of a first time head coach. In the end however, those losses lead to not only strengthen Cam and Rivera, but put an underrated team in prime position on the draft board to then draft Kuechly, Lotulelei, and Short.

Super Bowl "windows" are only relative to the team's QB in my opinion...

While a contender like Minnesota, Denver (next year with the new QB) or even TB in a couple years may rise up occasionally for a one off season, the perennial teams with a true shot are the ones with a strong QB...

Carolina is certainly one of those teams, as is Seattle. I'd say Green Bay, Pitt, New England are still in that mix as well.

ctrcat":90gfd2q4 said:

Cary Kollins":90gfd2q4 said:

kearly":90gfd2q4 said:

And when you look at Carolina's record in close games and then remember that they were #1 in turnover margin by a mile (both stats that are heavily luck based), it has all the tell tale signs of a fluke season. Which is probably why DVOA has been slow to crown them all year long. They are a good team, but "Super Bowl Window" talk for a team like this is not appropriate. The Panthers are a good but not great NFL franchise coming off one of the most charmed seasons in NFL history.
.

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turnovers and winning close games are luck based now?

lol ok

Click to expand...

Most either don't know or choose to forget that Cam and Rivera were 2-14 in one score games at one point. Even if they only win 3 of those 14 they're a .500 team in the first two years right out of the shoot. At the time, Cam haters had a field day with that one, ignoring the realities of the growing pains of a first time head coach. In the end however, those losses lead to not only strengthen Cam and Rivera, but put an underrated team in prime position on the draft board to then draft Kuechly, Lotulelei, and Short.

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Why are you guys still here lurking on our boards? Your team is in the SB, and you're concerned about what we are saying about your team? Inferiority complex much?

Way to speak the truth on this Kearly. A dominant team team should be able to win 10+ easily every year. Not go from 7-8-1 to 15-1. What this reminds of is the Seattle team led by Holmgrem. Holmgrem was always a great specialist at offense just as Rivera always has been with defense. Everything just came together for them this season. Teams such as Pittsburgh and NE and now even US, we have this system in place that finely tunes our athletes.

Which bring to me this. Will the Panthers be able to handle the adversity we have had? I mean, we've had a shit ton of it after our SuperBowl win.

With the way their guys go about flash so much. Which I don't mind at all, each to his own. If that's their swag, so be it! Enjoy the ride! I won't hate. However, if they end up winning that bowl, they will be celebs at a different level. Just like how our guys went from a bunch of "Undersized, overlooked nobodies" to becoming household names and all the fame and glory. It sure affected our defensive locker room. Even Earl Thomas pointed it out earlier in the season. That when they start telling you what kind of star you are, how entitled everyone starts to feel. Will the Panthers be able to handle that part??

^ No one knows the future, that's a fact.

Kearly is clearly an intelligent person and I do not doubt his ability to be objective or insightful either. But no one knows everything about everyting and if someone has additional facts and/or opinions, I don't see the harm in sharing. That's all it is anyway including Gil Brandt's opinion.

Axing Steve Smith was a big deal. As was losing Jordan Gross. As was losing 10% of the salary cap in Greg Hardy. As was losing the entire WR corps. The list goes on with that 2014 season but it was literally a "let's go one step back to go two forward" season on purpose. You'd find no shortage of "wtf are the Panthers doing?" columns in 2014 if you search.

Cary Kollins":lhnl0x7j said:

kearly":lhnl0x7j said:

The Panthers are a good team with a good young core of talent, but their 15-1 season is arguably the greatest outlier season in NFL history. They were returning a worse team on paper than one that went 7-8-1 the year before, and have come so close to a perfect 19-0 with that flawed team. I can only imagine the mathematical probability of that happening, how many season simulations of a 7-8-1 team missing their best weapon all year had them going 15-1? Maybe 1 in a 1000?

I think they will be a perennial playoff team due to the fact that the NFC South is so awful, but I think their fortunes will mirror the Lovie Smith Bears teams: alternating between mediocre and dominant every other season.

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Well, that's why the games aren't decided on paper.

Cam Newton was injured the entire 7-8-1 season. When he was able to play, he was getting destroyed thanks to one of the worst offensive lines through the first 8 weeks.


The Panthers should actually be better next season as they get Kelvin Benjamin back and actually have more cap room to work with than they have had since 2011.

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I think the Panthers, just from a records standpoint is bound to get worse.

15-1? Hard to top that. And if they end up losing the Bowl, who really cares that you went 15-1?

The one game people will end up remember they lost was the SuperBowl.

I'm thinking prime contenders for the next 5 years are:

Seahawks
Panthers
Steelers
Packers
Vikings
Bengals
Raiders (that's right, I said Raiders)
Kansas City
Colts
Arizona (if they get a new QB)

One thing that will allow them to compete for many years is Cam. Cam is a freaking baller. Super stud.

Ace_Rimmer":pr7qk0a7 said:

ctrcat":pr7qk0a7 said:

Cary Kollins":pr7qk0a7 said:

kearly":pr7qk0a7 said:

And when you look at Carolina's record in close games and then remember that they were #1 in turnover margin by a mile (both stats that are heavily luck based), it has all the tell tale signs of a fluke season. Which is probably why DVOA has been slow to crown them all year long. They are a good team, but "Super Bowl Window" talk for a team like this is not appropriate. The Panthers are a good but not great NFL franchise coming off one of the most charmed seasons in NFL history.
.

Click to expand...

turnovers and winning close games are luck based now?

lol ok

Click to expand...

Most either don't know or choose to forget that Cam and Rivera were 2-14 in one score games at one point. Even if they only win 3 of those 14 they're a .500 team in the first two years right out of the shoot. At the time, Cam haters had a field day with that one, ignoring the realities of the growing pains of a first time head coach. In the end however, those losses lead to not only strengthen Cam and Rivera, but put an underrated team in prime position on the draft board to then draft Kuechly, Lotulelei, and Short.

Click to expand...

Why are you guys still here lurking on our boards? Your team is in the SB, and you're concerned about what we are saying about your team? Inferiority complex much?

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This!!

I don't get it. They should be enjoying their success; not hanging around a Seahawk board and waiting for anything negative said about their team, then reacting to it like little girls. Chrissake, we're not even in the same division. Panther fans, your team doesn't care what other's say about them...it's called a winning mentality. You should do the same.

Last year after we beat them in the playoffs, I thought Carolina was a team on the cusp of going to the big game. I just did not see 15-1, I figured 11-5 and a challenger to the Saints.

I think they will be the big NFC rival to SEA for 3-4 years. But next year, we will be hungry, and they will either be sated, overconfident, and salary challenged after a SB victory, or distressed and depressed over an upset loss. LI is our game.

Uncle Si":2mzfj6yb said:

Super Bowl "windows" are only relative to the team's QB in my opinion...

While a contender like Minnesota, Denver (next year with the new QB) or even TB in a couple years may rise up occasionally for a one off season, the perennial teams with a true shot are the ones with a strong QB...

Carolina is certainly one of those teams, as is Seattle. I'd say Green Bay, Pitt, New England are still in that mix as well.

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I can't help but agree but Carolina's o-line gives them the edge, Cam with time? Excellent. Cam w/o time? Mediocre. Imagine RW with the same time Cam gets?

I think Carolina's ability to retain Charles Johnson, Kawann Short, Star Lotulelei, and Josh Norman over the next 2 years will be the most telling in how they maintain success. It's gonna be hard, they've got 3 players coming off rookie contracts who are arguably top 5 at their positions. Norman is probably worth around 12 million per year, Kawann Short is in that 10 per year range, Star is in the 7-10 range. Throw in the fact that Luke Keuchly's massive deal and Greg Olson's deal hits in 2017. It'll be interesting to see how they hold up next year and long term.

Cary Kollins":10d89dsw said:

turnovers and winning close games are luck based now?

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You're kidding yourself if you don't think randomness is a big factor for both of these. Hawks fans were in denial about the same thing after '13 when we dominated the league in turnover differential. However, 32 teams in the NFL preach ball security on offense and takeaways on defense and the football is irregularly shaped for a reason. The Hawks had 12-14 "almost" turnovers this season where randomness didn't go our way where it would have in 2013.

Fans will try to come up with other reasons (narration fallacy) but the key difference between the '13 Hawks and the '15 Hawks is fortune favored us one year and not the other. The '14 Panthers and the '15 Panthers are no different in that regard and that isn't an insult.

knownone":10d89dsw said:

I think Carolina's ability to retain Charles Johnson, Kawann Short, Star Lotulelei, and Josh Norman over the next 2 years will be the most telling in how they maintain success.

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People tend to make too big deal of this with every young team. The salary cap keeps rising and you can absolutely pay a dozen or more players big bucks and still manage things. Building through the draft gets you great value at all of your other positions for a low cost. As such managing the modern NFL salary cap is less about figuring out how to pay your big names and more about getting production from your second and third day drafted players.

knownone":1trff4c0 said:

I think Carolina's ability to retain Charles Johnson, Kawann Short, Star Lotulelei, and Josh Norman over the next 2 years will be the most telling in how they maintain success. It's gonna be hard, they've got 3 players coming off rookie contracts who are arguably top 5 at their positions. Norman is probably worth around 12 million per year, Kawann Short is in that 10 per year range, Star is in the 7-10 range. Throw in the fact that Luke Keuchly's massive deal and Greg Olson's deal hits in 2017. It'll be interesting to see how they hold up next year and long term.

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I hate the panthers, but to be fair, you could insert some Seahawks names in that paragraph and it would sound a lot like what people were saying about us last year or 2 years ago.

Thankfully we have the best front office in the league and have weathered it. The big question is if Carolina can.

I remember reading these championship window articles about the 9ers 2 years ago. Nothing is certain. That being said the NFC is a pretty obvious 3-way competition between Rodgers, Wilson, Newton, and then a 4th flavor of the year QB. Last year it was Romo, this year it was Palmer.

Which I think is the more interesting convo. Who will be the 4th QB in the NFC next year? A lot of contenders.

Brees - Can his defense get to a competent level?
Cousins - NFC Least = easy path.
Eli - Can his defense get to a competent level? NFC Least = easy path.
Romo - If he can stay healthy. NFC Least = easy path.
Palmer - If he can stay healthy.
Cutler - Has the talent.
Winston - If he can take a step forward in his development.
Matt Ryan - Has the talent.
Stafford - Has the talent.
Bridgewater - If he can take a step forward in his development.
Kap - Chip Kelly factor.

The NFC is stacked at QB.

Only the Rams & Eagles don't have a QB, and probably the Niners who may draft Jared Goff.

Seahawks and Panthers will continue to be relevant because they are now built very similar and are ran very similar, we have been the model of success being copied by many teams since the Denver Super Bowl and before actually. The other model is the Patriots which do it differently.