NFC Playoff Thoughts

Everyone,

I'll do the 'full monty' analysis of the NFC Playoff picture tomorrow after MNF because surprisingly that game is actually fairly important. To save everyone anticipation and grief let me state who (I think) you should root for up front as a Seattle fan:

Root for the 'fins.

Why? If the Dolphins win, that gives the Giants a 5-8 record and it means that they can not finish better than 8-8. This would insure that no NFCE team can get nine wins WITHOUT winning the NFCE. Why? The Giants play Philly and Washington plays Philly and right now both Washington and Philly control their own destiny for the NFCE Crown. By insuring that no team in the NFCE can have a winning record w/o clinching the division, it makes it a lot easier for the Seahawks to clinch their own spot.

OTOH if the Giants win, then the Giants could win out at 9-7 and still lose the tiebreak to a 9-7 Washington team, and that could put the Giants into some very messy 3+ team tiebreaks for wildcards if multiple teams finish 9-7. So a Giants win wouldn't be a disaster, but root for the 'fins anyway.

On to the good stuff:

Week 15 Clinching Scenarios

1. Carolina has already clinched a first week bye. Carolina can clinch HFA thoughout the playoffs with:

A win + Arizona loss or tie (or a tie and Arizona loss). Why? Arizona would not be able to overtake Carolina in record if that happened and Carolina is already out of reach of everyone else.

2. Arizona has already clinched a playoff spot. Arizona clinches a first week bye (and NFCW crown) with:

A win + Green Bay loss. Again this is due to the fact that Green Bay is the only team that can catch Arizona (and would own the tiebreak if they do) with an Az win. That is why GB needs to lose.

3. Arizona can clinch the NFCW Crown with:

A win or tie

OR

A Seattle loss or tie
I think the rational here is obvious. Moving on

4. Green Bay can clinch a playoff spot with:

A win

OR

A NY Giants loss (either tomorrow or next week)+Tampa Bay loss
The reasoning here is somewhat complex. The first part is easy. If Green Bay wins, then there are only two teams in the NFC that could match that that don't already have playoff spots [Seattle and Minny] and at 10+ wins if GB doesn't win the NFCN, Minny will. That leaves two teams for two wildcards no matter what. The second part is more involved. Green Bay has to stay out of a three way tie with the NYGiants [the Eagles and Washington aren't a problem since if either of those teams gets to nine wins, they win the NFCE and don't compete with GB for the same spot]. A Giants loss either tomorrow or next Sunday does this. The Tampa part should be obvious. [edit: Removed Atlanta condition. Atlanta can't win any tiebreak with GB no matter what.]

5. Seattle can clinch a playoff spot with

A win + A Giants loss (either tomorrow or next week) + Tampa loss
The reasoning here is very similar to the Green Bay picture. A Giants loss would eliminate any interference from the NFCE, and an Atlanta and Tampla loss make them unable to catch Seattle. No other NFC team would be able to match Seattle other than Green Bay or Minny (but see above)[Edit: Removed Atlanta condition. Atlanta can't win tiebreaks with Seattle.]

6. Minnesota can clinch a playoff spot with:

A win + Giants loss (either tomorrow or next week) +Tampa loss
The reasoning is identical to the scenario for Seattle. In fact Green Bay, Minny, and Seattle are natural allies for the next two weeks at least insofar as the wildcard picture is concerned.[Edit: Removed Atlanta condition since Atlanta won't win tiebreaks with Minny.]

Playoff Elimination Scenarios

If you've looked above, it's possible for all the NFC playoff teams to be determined (if not the seed) *except* for the NFCE Champ. This would eliminate most of the NFC. Details follow:

NFCS:

1. The Saints are eliminated with:

A loss OR A Seattle + Minny win. RIght now 8-8 is the absolute floor to be in Wildcard contention in the NFC, and a loss would put the Saints below that. A Seattle + Minny win would raise the wildcard 'floor' to 9-7 which eliminates the Saint

2, Tampa Bay is eliminated with:

A loss AND A Seattle + Minny win. This combination would make the Bucs best possible record an 8-8 and raise the wildcard floor to 9-7. This eliminates the Bucs. Both Seattle and Minny would have to win because the Bucs would have the tiebreak on both.

3. Atlanta is eliminated with:

A loss OR A Minny + A Seattle win Edit: Atlanta loses all tiebreaks with GB, Seattle, and Minny. For Atlanta to be alive, they have to be able to beat out at least one of these teams outright. This is currently impossible with GB. If both Minny and Seattle win, it's impossible period and Atlanta is eliminated.

NFCE:

1. The Cowboys are eliminated with:

(edit) A Loss (/edit) OR A Washington win AND An Eagles win The Cowboys are already officially eliminated from the wildcard with nine losses. If both the Eagles and Washington win, they will be 7-7 and play each other on week 15 which means one of them will reach 8 wins (or at least 7 and a half with a tie). This would be out of reach of the Cowboys who can have at best a 7-9 record. Edit: Obviously a Cowboys loss would have the same effect since both Washington and Philly already have six wins and play each other.

2. There are no other NFCE elimination scenarios

NFCN:

Detroit has already been eliminated, and Chicago has been eliminated from NFCN title consideration.

1. Chicago is eliminated with:

A loss It really is that simple with Chicago since they are playing Minny. A loss puts Chicago with 9 losses and out of contention. Chicago's sole hope is to win out and beat Minny for the Wildcard tiebreaker.

2. There are no other NFCN elimination scenarios

NFCW:

San Fransisco has already been eliminated. St Louis has been eliminated from NFCW title consideration.

1. St Louis is eliminated with:

A loss OR Seattle + Minny Win Honestly if the Rams win this week, they'll almost certainly be eliminated outright when they play Seattle in Seattle, but a St Louis loss assures them of a losing season and out of playoff contention. Even if the Rams win, if both Seattle and Minny do as well, 8 wins (the most the Rams could get) wouldn't do it.

2. Seattle is eliminated from NFCW title consideration with:

An Arizona win (or tie) OR Seattle loss (or tie) [see above]

*whew* I think that about does it.

All of which outlines why those early division games should have been wins, but dissention took care of that.

Regarding the Division title,

Are you sure that AZ losing and Us winning guarantees we remain in the race? Im trying to count SOS, but wouldnt another win by Cinci and NO, coupled with a loss from minny and Pittsburg, effectively give AZ the title no matter what?

As long as we don't mess up our next two gimme games then we simply make it. A bigger concern is the RB position. I really hope Lynch is at least fully healthy for the divisional round. Otherwise I see us having a really hard time in the play-offs.

Cartire":35ytxfar said:

Regarding the Division title,

Are you sure that AZ losing and Us winning guarantees we remain in the race? Im trying to count SOS, but wouldnt another win by Cinci and NO, coupled with a loss from minny and Pittsburg, effectively give AZ the title no matter what?

Click to expand...

Let's take a look at it. Right now the two critical teams are Cincy/NO for Arizona and Pitt/Dallas for us. Combined wins for Cincy/NO is 15. Combined wins for Pitt/Dallas is 12. The most this can move either way in a single week is +/- 4 and there are three weeks left. Even if Cincy/NO both won and Pitt/Dallas both lost (which could easily happen), the difference would be +7 in favor of Arizona with two weeks remaining.....not quite enough to clinch the tiebreak by SoV alone.

Polaris":2z2gtvb4 said:

Cartire":2z2gtvb4 said:

Regarding the Division title,

Are you sure that AZ losing and Us winning guarantees we remain in the race? Im trying to count SOS, but wouldnt another win by Cinci and NO, coupled with a loss from minny and Pittsburg, effectively give AZ the title no matter what?

Click to expand...

Let's take a look at it. Right now the two critical teams are Cincy/NO for Arizona and Pitt/Dallas for us. Combined wins for Cincy/NO is 15. Combined wins for Pitt/Dallas is 12. The most this can move either way in a single week is +/- 4 and there are three weeks left. Even if Cincy/NO both won and Pitt/Dallas both lost (which could easily happen), the difference would be +7 in favor of Arizona with two weeks remaining.....not quite enough to clinch the tiebreak by SoV alone.

Click to expand...

Got it. Was a few off.

Overseasfan":3vh540bz said:

As long as we don't mess up our next two gimme games then we simply make it. A bigger concern is the RB position. I really hope Lynch is at least fully healthy for the divisional round. Otherwise I see us having a really hard time in the play-offs.

Click to expand...

Not sure if I agree.

How many of our most recent playoff games and SB's has Lynch had monster performances where you're like "OMG thank God he's on the team."

If anything has been revealed with Lynch's absence, it's that Russell is more than capable of taking a game over if need be.

Obviously we'd love to have a healthy and productive running attack in the playoffs, but IMO it doesn't spell doom and gloom if we don't. With how in sync Russell and the receivers are right now, just a serviceable run game should be good enough.

Sgt. Largent":2hevcwla said:

Overseasfan":2hevcwla said:

As long as we don't mess up our next two gimme games then we simply make it. A bigger concern is the RB position. I really hope Lynch is at least fully healthy for the divisional round. Otherwise I see us having a really hard time in the play-offs.

Click to expand...

Not sure if I agree.

How many of our most recent playoff games and SB's has Lynch had monster performances where you're like "OMG thank God he's on the team."

If anything has been revealed with Lynch's absence, it's that Russell is more than capable of taking a game over if need be.

Obviously we'd love to have a healthy and productive running attack in the playoffs, but IMO it doesn't spell doom and gloom if we don't. With how in sync Russell and the receivers are right now, just a serviceable run game should be good enough.

Click to expand...

But we could sure use a legitimate running threat since we'll be on the road in the playoffs. Three road games in January...who knows what kind of crazy weather we'll see. Might not be able to rely solely on a passing attack.

marko358":36c6xyuz said:

Sgt. Largent":36c6xyuz said:

Overseasfan":36c6xyuz said:

As long as we don't mess up our next two gimme games then we simply make it. A bigger concern is the RB position. I really hope Lynch is at least fully healthy for the divisional round. Otherwise I see us having a really hard time in the play-offs.

Click to expand...

Not sure if I agree.

How many of our most recent playoff games and SB's has Lynch had monster performances where you're like "OMG thank God he's on the team."

If anything has been revealed with Lynch's absence, it's that Russell is more than capable of taking a game over if need be.

Obviously we'd love to have a healthy and productive running attack in the playoffs, but IMO it doesn't spell doom and gloom if we don't. With how in sync Russell and the receivers are right now, just a serviceable run game should be good enough.

Click to expand...

But we could sure use a legitimate running threat since we'll be on the road in the playoffs. Three road games in January...who knows what kind of crazy weather we'll see. Might not be able to rely solely on a passing attack.

Click to expand...

Agreed, but I strongly suspect that Lynch will be back by the playoffs if not by week 17 (to warm up), and while Lynch is no Rawls ( ), he should be more than good enough given how Wilson is playing.

marko358":bln4v1db said:

Sgt. Largent":bln4v1db said:

Overseasfan":bln4v1db said:

As long as we don't mess up our next two gimme games then we simply make it. A bigger concern is the RB position. I really hope Lynch is at least fully healthy for the divisional round. Otherwise I see us having a really hard time in the play-offs.

Click to expand...

Not sure if I agree.

How many of our most recent playoff games and SB's has Lynch had monster performances where you're like "OMG thank God he's on the team."

If anything has been revealed with Lynch's absence, it's that Russell is more than capable of taking a game over if need be.

Obviously we'd love to have a healthy and productive running attack in the playoffs, but IMO it doesn't spell doom and gloom if we don't. With how in sync Russell and the receivers are right now, just a serviceable run game should be good enough.

Click to expand...

But we could sure use a legitimate running threat since we'll be on the road in the playoffs. Three road games in January...who knows what kind of crazy weather we'll see. Might not be able to rely solely on a passing attack.

Click to expand...

That's why I said serviceable.

It's how the Patriots have won for the past 15 years. When's the last time they've had an amazing RB? All you need with a passing attack that's clicking is to keep defenses honest with a RB that can get you 50-75 yards and block........and I think we can do that, even with less than awesome RB's.

We don't really have a choice do we? This is Russell's playoff run to lose IMO.

The NFC is clear cut. Only thing it comes down to is who wins the NFC East.

Hawk-Lock":1vd4w9wq said:

The NFC is clear cut. Only thing it comes down to is who wins the NFC East.

Click to expand...

Pretty much. The fine details of the seeding need to be decided (and even that's pretty clear), and someone has to win the NFC Least.

Unless something really strange happens, it looks like the following:

1. Carolina
2. Arizona
3. Green Bay
4. (who cares)
5. Seattle
6. Minnesota

Sgt. Largent":xu5ikxg5 said:

marko358":xu5ikxg5 said:

Sgt. Largent":xu5ikxg5 said:

Overseasfan":xu5ikxg5 said:

As long as we don't mess up our next two gimme games then we simply make it. A bigger concern is the RB position. I really hope Lynch is at least fully healthy for the divisional round. Otherwise I see us having a really hard time in the play-offs.

Click to expand...

Not sure if I agree.

How many of our most recent playoff games and SB's has Lynch had monster performances where you're like "OMG thank God he's on the team."

If anything has been revealed with Lynch's absence, it's that Russell is more than capable of taking a game over if need be.

Obviously we'd love to have a healthy and productive running attack in the playoffs, but IMO it doesn't spell doom and gloom if we don't. With how in sync Russell and the receivers are right now, just a serviceable run game should be good enough.

Click to expand...

But we could sure use a legitimate running threat since we'll be on the road in the playoffs. Three road games in January...who knows what kind of crazy weather we'll see. Might not be able to rely solely on a passing attack.

Click to expand...

That's why I said serviceable.

It's how the Patriots have won for the past 15 years. When's the last time they've had an amazing RB? All you need with a passing attack that's clicking is to keep defenses honest with a RB that can get you 50-75 yards and block........and I think we can do that, even with less than awesome RB's.

We don't really have a choice do we? This is Russell's playoff run to lose IMO.

Click to expand...

:13:

Well said

They should change the playoffs to be like the NBA. Six teams who get in are seeded by record. Screw these below .500 getting a home game.

Sgt. Largent":lhkjvgak said:

marko358":lhkjvgak said:

Sgt. Largent":lhkjvgak said:

Overseasfan":lhkjvgak said:

As long as we don't mess up our next two gimme games then we simply make it. A bigger concern is the RB position. I really hope Lynch is at least fully healthy for the divisional round. Otherwise I see us having a really hard time in the play-offs.

Click to expand...

Not sure if I agree.

How many of our most recent playoff games and SB's has Lynch had monster performances where you're like "OMG thank God he's on the team."

If anything has been revealed with Lynch's absence, it's that Russell is more than capable of taking a game over if need be.

Obviously we'd love to have a healthy and productive running attack in the playoffs, but IMO it doesn't spell doom and gloom if we don't. With how in sync Russell and the receivers are right now, just a serviceable run game should be good enough.

Click to expand...

But we could sure use a legitimate running threat since we'll be on the road in the playoffs. Three road games in January...who knows what kind of crazy weather we'll see. Might not be able to rely solely on a passing attack.

Click to expand...

That's why I said serviceable.

It's how the Patriots have won for the past 15 years. When's the last time they've had an amazing RB? All you need with a passing attack that's clicking is to keep defenses honest with a RB that can get you 50-75 yards and block........and I think we can do that, even with less than awesome RB's.

We don't really have a choice do we? This is Russell's playoff run to lose IMO.

Click to expand...

Exactly. Welcome to the bus. I don't drive well but it doesn't look like you have a choice. Given I've already said 4 years ago what you just realized. :stirthepot: :17: :3-1: :thfight7: :th2thumbs:

marko358":1xbuzsq5 said:

They should change the playoffs to be like the NBA. Six teams who get in are seeded by record. Screw these below .500 getting a home game.

Click to expand...

I see what you did there. 8)