Hawkblogger Patriots Run Defense Ranks Dead Last Versus Powe

Patriots Run Defense Ranks Dead Last Versus Power Runs

You may have heard that Marshawn Lynch has a tendency to run with a little power. P

Football Outsiders also tracks a stat called "Stuffed" that is the percentage of runs where a running back is tackled at, or behind the line of scrimmage. Getting stuffed is not good. Stuffing opponents is great.

New England ranks 28th in the NFL in stuffing opposing running backs while the Seahawks offense ranks 6th in fewest stuffed runs

The Seahawks rank #1 in the NFL in converting 3rd and 2 or less. The Patriots rank 30th in the NFL in stopping opponents in those situations.

http://www.hawkblogger.com/2015/01/patr ... .html#more

I really want this game to start. The anxiety of reading all these articles is slowly driving me crazy.

Hawk_Nation":la6jnf97 said:

I really want this game to start. The anxiety of reading all these articles is slowly driving me crazy.

Click to expand...

Yes, Lawd!!

new england will stack the box to stop the run. in my opinion the key to the game will be if we can quit with the presnap penalties and if bevell can find ways to make the patriots pay for stacking the box.

sedrohawk":1nie9gl9 said:

new england will stack the box to stop the run. in my opinion the key to the game will be if we can quit with the presnap penalties and if bevell can find ways to make the patriots pay for stacking the box.

Click to expand...

It would be so painful to lose the SB on pre-snap penalties.

falcongoggles":ref387vb said:

sedrohawk":ref387vb said:

new england will stack the box to stop the run. in my opinion the key to the game will be if we can quit with the presnap penalties and if bevell can find ways to make the patriots pay for stacking the box.

Click to expand...

It would be so painful to lose the SB on pre-snap penalties.

Click to expand...

Every team stacks the box...they have since 2010.

The key to this will be Mr Bevell, IMO. I sure as hell hope he doesn't need, absolutely, his scripted 15 to figure things out. As injuries increase the Seahawks margin for error decreases, cant afford to go empty-set, 4 wide on 2nd and 2...then 3rd and 2 in the SB.

Goes for Russ too...keep the RO.

Serve them up a heavy dose of Tuk followed by Beast.

Pats fan here. I have to say that stat is a bit deceiving for the Patriots. They are not a really strong run D but they aren't as bad as that stat indicates. The reason that stat is the way it is likely has more to do with the way the Pats play D (which is in Nickle or Dime the vast majority of the time as opposed to a 4-3 base).

A lot of those are converted between the 20s particularly when the Pats play against very strong passing Os. I expect the Pats to play with bigger personnel and more base than usual this game. I think your team will still have some success cause Lynch is Lynch and your OL solid particularly in run blocking but this is not the Achilles heel that stat makes it look like.

bobdigital":q8nwoz3m said:

Pats fan here. I have to say that stat is a bit deceiving for the Patriots. They are not a really strong run D but they aren't as bad as that stat indicates. The reason that stat is the way it is likely has more to do with the way the Pats play D (which is in Nickle or Dime the vast majority of the time as opposed to a 4-3 base).

A lot of those are converted between the 20s particularly when the Pats play against very strong passing Os. I expect the Pats to play with bigger personnel and more base than usual this game. I think your team will still have some success cause Lynch is Lynch and your OL solid particularly in run blocking but this is not the Achilles heel that stat makes it look like.

Click to expand...

That's probably fair.

I have a hard time imagining Wilfork, Siliga, Hightower etc being bad against the run when they are in run personnel. Though the Hawks do like to run out of 3 wide formation, so it'll be interesting to see what personnel the Pats put out against personnel groupings that most teams would pass out of.

kobebryant":8q1uctxr said:

bobdigital":8q1uctxr said:

Pats fan here. I have to say that stat is a bit deceiving for the Patriots. They are not a really strong run D but they aren't as bad as that stat indicates. The reason that stat is the way it is likely has more to do with the way the Pats play D (which is in Nickle or Dime the vast majority of the time as opposed to a 4-3 base).

A lot of those are converted between the 20s particularly when the Pats play against very strong passing Os. I expect the Pats to play with bigger personnel and more base than usual this game. I think your team will still have some success cause Lynch is Lynch and your OL solid particularly in run blocking but this is not the Achilles heel that stat makes it look like.

Click to expand...

That's probably fair.

I have a hard time imagining Wilfork, Siliga, Hightower etc being bad against the run when they are in run personnel. Though the Hawks do like to run out of 3 wide formation, so it'll be interesting to see what personnel the Pats put out against personnel groupings that most teams would pass out of.

Click to expand...

I try to be fair and not a homer : P

I am curious about that too. Personally I feel like the way the Hawks can run it is going to force the Pats into bigger personnel and they will need to hope they can stop the WRs with their CBs and only 1 deep safety. Going to be risky but I don't see a way around it.

bobdigital":1tin6n7e said:

kobebryant":1tin6n7e said:

bobdigital":1tin6n7e said:

Pats fan here. I have to say that stat is a bit deceiving for the Patriots. They are not a really strong run D but they aren't as bad as that stat indicates. The reason that stat is the way it is likely has more to do with the way the Pats play D (which is in Nickle or Dime the vast majority of the time as opposed to a 4-3 base).

A lot of those are converted between the 20s particularly when the Pats play against very strong passing Os. I expect the Pats to play with bigger personnel and more base than usual this game. I think your team will still have some success cause Lynch is Lynch and your OL solid particularly in run blocking but this is not the Achilles heel that stat makes it look like.

Click to expand...

That's probably fair.

I have a hard time imagining Wilfork, Siliga, Hightower etc being bad against the run when they are in run personnel. Though the Hawks do like to run out of 3 wide formation, so it'll be interesting to see what personnel the Pats put out against personnel groupings that most teams would pass out of.

Click to expand...

I try to be fair and not a homer : P

I am curious about that too. Personally I feel like the way the Hawks can run it is going to force the Pats into bigger personnel and they will need to hope they can stop the WRs with their CBs and only 1 deep safety. Going to be risky but I don't see a way around it.

Click to expand...

We want the Patriots in base, so we can use our speed on Ninkovich and Hightower.

Stats like this usually mean a lot of phantom holding penalties to negate Seattle first downs. Officiating is my biggest fear going into this game.

bobdigital":2lst2hl8 said:

Pats fan here. I have to say that stat is a bit deceiving for the Patriots. They are not a really strong run D but they aren't as bad as that stat indicates. The reason that stat is the way it is likely has more to do with the way the Pats play D (which is in Nickle or Dime the vast majority of the time as opposed to a 4-3 base).

A lot of those are converted between the 20s particularly when the Pats play against very strong passing Os. I expect the Pats to play with bigger personnel and more base than usual this game. I think your team will still have some success cause Lynch is Lynch and your OL solid particularly in run blocking but this is not the Achilles heel that stat makes it look like.

Click to expand...

The only flaw to this premise is that if you're playing in nickle and dime to defend against good passing teams, then usually the tendency is for those teams to pass more often than run. Teams that pass more than run would scew your stats towards being a better run team. Let me give you an example:

The 2000 Rams were the #1 RUN defense in the league, but they were in the bottom third of passing defenses. They had a good pass rush and a decent secondary. The reason for this is that most teams were down 14 points by the end of the first quarter, and were scrambling to find a way to keep up. Most teams I watched play them had totally abandoned the run mid way through the second quarter.

Here's the other problem with that theory: your division. You're claiming that you play against good passing teams. Would that be the Jets, the Bills, or the Dolphins ? Specifically, the Jets and Bills focused on the run very hard. Philbin wants the Dolphins to be balanced, but they didn't have great personnel to run the ball. Now, this could be why your run defense looks bad, but then again....when facing teams that are run heavy, you have to stop them. When you don't, your run defense suffers.

To be fair, we haven't played like the #3 run defense in the league after Mebane went down either.

bobdigital":i3okc4yp said:

Pats fan here. I have to say that stat is a bit deceiving for the Patriots. They are not a really strong run D but they aren't as bad as that stat indicates. The reason that stat is the way it is likely has more to do with the way the Pats play D (which is in Nickle or Dime the vast majority of the time as opposed to a 4-3 base).

A lot of those are converted between the 20s particularly when the Pats play against very strong passing Os. I expect the Pats to play with bigger personnel and more base than usual this game. I think your team will still have some success cause Lynch is Lynch and your OL solid particularly in run blocking but this is not the Achilles heel that stat makes it look like.

Click to expand...

I agree that the stat is misleading...One of the great match ups in this game will be Unger vs Wilfork... This is a Key match up IMO.... I think if Unger makes some plays on Wilfork the Pats will not be able to stop Lynch hense the Pats will have a long day!

If I was Carroll Id ram Lynch down there throat early and often and pound those bastards into submission..... yeah they might stack the box but thats going to give our wide outs and TE's a chance to do there thing... Id run Lynch 20-25 times in the first half and play field position, control the clock and let our D force the pats into make mistakes...

LTH

LTH":3p0m1p6c said:

bobdigital":3p0m1p6c said:

Pats fan here. I have to say that stat is a bit deceiving for the Patriots. They are not a really strong run D but they aren't as bad as that stat indicates. The reason that stat is the way it is likely has more to do with the way the Pats play D (which is in Nickle or Dime the vast majority of the time as opposed to a 4-3 base).

A lot of those are converted between the 20s particularly when the Pats play against very strong passing Os. I expect the Pats to play with bigger personnel and more base than usual this game. I think your team will still have some success cause Lynch is Lynch and your OL solid particularly in run blocking but this is not the Achilles heel that stat makes it look like.

Click to expand...

I agree that the stat is misleading...One of the great match ups in this game will be Unger vs Wilfork... This is a Key match up IMO.... I think if Unger makes some plays on Wilfork the Pats will not be able to stop Lynch hense the Pats will have a long day!

LTH

Click to expand...

Max Unger is unbelievably important to the Hawks Offense. He missed a lot of time due to injury this season, including the last 2 games of the regular season. This has been posted before, but his presence in the lineup shows up in the stat department big time ...

In the six games Unger played - the first four and Weeks 10 and 11 - the Seahawks averaged 392.5 yards of offense per game, including 203.8 yards rushing. Seattle also allowed 13 total sacks in those six games and quarterback Russell Wilson had a passer rating of 95 or higher in five of the six.

In the 10 games Unger missed, Seattle averaged nearly 30 yards less of offense, but the big drop off was in the running game. The Seahawks rushed for just 153.9 yards in those 10 games when Unger was out.

Source:
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ungers-return-help-solidify-seahawks-offensive-line-002908966--nfl.html

Unger is finally back and healthy. Should be a very key matchup for sure.

Honestly, so great to see a logical and well informed series of comments debating actual football, not contrived drama or a flame war.

I think the initial stat posted is interesting, but without watching NE this season I'd have to give bobdigital's read credence.

I do not expect this to be easy, but Lynch will be the biggest issue for the Patriots to try and overcome (Gronk might be ours)- even team experienced in stopping run-heavy offenses have not had a good time stopping him. If Lynch is not stopped at the line, he will hurt you (similar to Gronk - stuff him at the line to stop him as well).

Now, Bellicheck does like to take away a team's strength, but too much attention to Lynch can be very costly in who you are NOT covering (just as we need to be careful about every TE not named Gronkowski...)

I was thinking NE might be better off not giving him too much attention - don't over commit defense against Lynch - let him have a 120+ yard game - and just trying to make up the difference in score on the offense. Of course, overly aggressive scoring attempts against our secondary has its own dangers....

How this game is played might be determined by how NE decides to deal with Lynch:

If they go big to stop him (extra men on the line), Wilson will have a big day running and our receivers will grab occasional big chucks of yardage beating single coverage - Luke Wilson may have a big day being past the defenders intended for Lynch and under Browner and Revis.

If NE lets Lynch run, they will have to contend with less time of possession as SEA rushes again and again to eat up the clock.

The inventiveness of Brady and toughness and power mismatch Gronk creates are very similar to the traits displayed by Wilson and Lynch. This will be a great game.

Only two things I DON'T want to see - injuries or the game being decided by the refs.