Wasn't there a Packers or Saints fan that came on here earlier in the season who proclaimed that the Broncos and Giants would either outright beat the Seahawks or cover the spread based on last year's blowout losses -- the idea being that there was a trend in the league that teams rarely ever follow up those big wins with similar performances regardless of the quality of team play. And he was contending this with the games a season apart.
I remember two years ago against the Giants, the 49ers were coming off two huge blowout wins over the Jets and Bills -- combined score of 79-3. And there was a stat that said that teams that won two combined games in a row by a huge margin (around 50+ points or something) were set up for a let down at an alarmingly high percentage rate -- very low winning percentage historically, maybe between 10-20%.
And sure enough the Giants beat the 49ers 26-3. On paper the 49ers had improved from the previous season while the Giants dropped slightly. There should have been motivation and focus to play them given the result of the prior year's NFC Championship game. At worst that game should have been a lot closer.
I also tend to look at ESPN's pigskin pick 'em for clues too. They keep track of every team's performance straight up and against the spread and often find weird stats that are eerie going against the heavily favored team. When the 49ers went in to play Minnesota two years ago there was a stat that said the Niners hadn't covered the spread in the Metrodome since 1992 or so, nor won straight up in quite a long time. They went into that game and played pretty poorly and more or less lost the game by halftime.
That game also followed two authoritative (although not huge point spread) wins over Green Bay and Detroit to open the season.
Trends are worth paying attention to because they play into the Any Given Sunday aspect. Although I only look into the trends after analyzing everything else.
If you consider the Giants loss to Colts a blowout, then that typically bodes well for the Giants coming into this game regardless of opponent. You saw how well the Jets played Denver after the shellacking against San Diego? Stuff like that.
I believe the Giants lose this game because they're not that good of a team right now, but I don't foresee a blowout loss or shutout. And quite frankly, the last two Seahawk games at CenturyLink have not been stellar performances by the home team.
