The Return of the Cheat Sheet: Week 14

[Hawknballs]

The Cheat Sheet returns. I apologize for the missed week 12 version, and then we had the bye. I’ve been busy with a lot going on so I just didn’t find the time, and with no game on the horizon and a pretty resounding butt-whooping against the Vikings there wasn’t much to talk about.

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I’m not going to get too deep into this game, because we all saw it. Butt kicking. But why?

The Saints rely too much on personnel groupings and Brees’ ability to diagnose a defense at the line. The 12th man took the first part away because there just wasn’t ever time for them to get the packages in that they wanted to line up and also get everyone on the same page due to an inability to communicate. The Seattle defense shifted around a lot. At first I thought they were confused; in reality they were trying to keep Brees guessing so that it would take him that much longer to decide to check the ball down. It worked. Their big ‘picture cards’ were ridiculous.

I mean, what the hell?
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Anyways.

Without Browner and Thurmond the second secondary looked – just fine. Maxwell might be playing himself into a starting role if the clock has expired on Thurmond. Seattle’s been very patient with his injury issues only to have him return the favor by being suspended for substance abuse. I’m a huge fan of Jeremy Lane. I mentioned this last season when he had to step in but that guy has a passion for the game and competitiveness that was tangible in the 2012 training camp practices I saw. All week I kept telling people I wasn’t concerned about it. Love it when I’m right! It doesn’t happen often.

Offensively it wasn’t a great rushing day, but that didn’t matter because everything else worked to perfection. The Saints were hell bent on stopping the run, and from what I saw, dared Russell Wilson to beat them. Sadly I think this is the last time we’ll see that happen. I wouldn’t dare Russell Wilson to become an astronaut because 31 days later he’d be doing a press conference from orbit while on a space walk. Sooner or later defensive coordinators will realize it’s incredibly stupid to dare him to do the one thing he’s best at – making anyone who underestimates him look remarkably dumb. The Saints did a great job of diagnosing runs and being there to stop the play. The Seahawks O-line actually did a decent job of blocking. It just happened to be the one area where the Saints executed well.

I feel incredibly lucky to have been at this game. Over the past two seasons I’ve been at the Clink for some great ones. Blowouts against great times like the Saints and 49ers are awesome to see in person. Knowing how important this one was to home field advantage made a shutout second half that really wasn’t super exciting after the Coleman miracle touchdown since the game was obviously out of reach but it was a great way to hang with the other fans and just enjoy it.

Fun Fact of the week:

Seattle has the highest total point differential of any team in the league (+154, followed by Denver at +147)

Playoff Scenarios:

• Seattle has clinched a playoff birth
• Seattle can win the NFC West and guarantee themselves no worse than the #2 seed by winning on Sunday vs. the 49ers
• Seattle can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs by virtue of the #1 seed with two more wins in any of their remaining four games

There are some other scenarios but it’s not really worth the headache to go over it all until things sort themselves out this week.




Few games really matter to us anymore. We’re already in the playoffs. Let’s focus on the possible competition and seeding. I’ve removed the “Good” or the “Bad” at this point because it’s either obvious, deserves special conversation, or comes down to a personal opinion on who you’d rather see in the playoffs.

Lions (7-5) over Packers (6-6)

I’m torn a bit on this one. Neither team is a threat to our seeding unless the Lions were to win out and we lose out, a scenario so unlikely that it’s not worth considering. Even then tie-breakers come into play, that also aren’t worth considering. It really comes down to who you’d rather see in the playoffs. I think we match up well with either team, but I will take the Lions over the Packers very slightly, and only because they are a dome team who will have to come to Seattle in January. However the porous Packer’s defense looks good to me too. PUSH.

Cowboys (7-5) over Raiders

Again it’s a win out/lose out unlikely scenario for the Cowboys to matter to us. Personally I would love to play the Cowboys here in the Playoffs. Yesplease.

Vikings over Bears (6-6)

The Bears still have a chance at their division and the wild card but are of no importance directly to our seeding. I’m sketchy on them as a playoff matchup. They have two great receivers and a defense that can make some plays, as well as being accustomed to cold-weather games. However they did lose to the Vikings who may as well have a giant pez dispenser at QB popping open it’s head and drooling the football into Peterson’s hands.

Eagles (7-5) over Cardinals (7-5)

Two more “Win out/lose out” teams. I put them on equal footing as far as a playoff matchup, with a slight edge going to the Cardinals for the fact that they are a division rival. Both have explosive capabilities. The Eagles have a more efficient less turnover prone offense. Arizona has a better defense. On the road you better have the defense to compete. I’d rather face the Eagles in the playoffs. Caveat here is that the Eagles for whatever reason play better on the road than they do at home.

Panthers (9-3) over Buccaneers

The Panthers are probably our biggest concern in the playoffs as they have the running game and defense that could travel well and be a threat. I’d prefer it at this point if the Panthers were to get the wild card and have to play the extra game. I’m not writing off the Saints as competition based on Monday’s performance – they are a better team than that ad with a second shot it would be a much more competitive game. One advantage to facing the Panthers is that it would be their first time up here against the 12th man and that could work in our favor.

49ers (8-4) over Rams

This win coupled with the success of the Panthers and Saints pretty much takes the Rams out of playoff contention. They have a really slim outside chance but that’s it. If things hold up as they should, SF will be on the road for wild card weekend.

Giants (5-7) over Redskins

We’ll know a little more about how we match up with the Giants in a couple weeks, but they are one loss away from basically being eliminated from playoff contention. I’m going to write them off at this point. If they win out and somehow every other wild card team loses out and they sneak in I will send them a nice harry and david gift basket of delicious pears.



Note: this is not list of picks based on teams I believe will win, or necessarily want to win. Picks in Green are simply the teams for which a win helps the Seahawks a.) Make the playoffs and b.) attain a high playoff seed.

The Walter Jones Division (important games):


Lions @ Eagles

Nearly a push game for me, but I’m going with the eagles based on the simple fact that they have one of the worst defenses in the league, and Nick Foles is bound to start throwing picks at some point.

Panthers @ Saints

I could be convinced one way or another here, but for the time being I’m picking the Saints as the easier playoff matchup for us. Again, not because we’ve already beat them once (we beat the Panthers as well) but because the Panthers play a more portable game. An argument could be made that the Saints might be a tougher matchup based on having recent film to study against us at home.

Cowboys @ Bears

I want to beat the Cowboys in the playoffs; and the Bears strike me as an overlooked team that could pull off some upsets if they make it into the playoffs. McCown has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Romo has the weight of his career on his shoulders.


The Ben Obomanu Division (games of moderate significance):


Falcons @ Packers

Green Bay’s defense isn’t great either but they are used to cold weather. Rodgers could come back with a vengeance. I would like to beat them again though. . hmm.

Rams @ Cardinals

Picking the Cardinals here only because I’d rather face them in the playoffs than the 49ers. And lets face It, it would just be funny if the 49ers miss the playoffs.


The Kelly Jennings Division (games that, like Jennings himself, don’t really matter.)


Giants @ Chargers

No better way to clinch our one-seed by beating the Niners this weekend and then going to face a team that’s just fought back from 0-6 to come up short of playoff hopes.



Seahawks @ 49ers

Seahawks:

Pass Offense: 22
Rush Offense: 3
Total Offense: 11
Scoring: 2

Pass Defense: 1
Rush Defense: 13
Total Defense: 1
Scoring: 2

Turnover Differential: +12


49ers:

Pass Offense: 31
Rush Offense: 7
Total Offense: 28
Scoring: 10

Pass Defense: 3
Rush Defense: 11
Total Defense: 5
Scoring: 3

Turnover Differential: +6


Vegas Opening Spread:
49ers -1.5

Right off the bat I’m picking the Seahawks to pull off the “upset” and win this game.

Why? A few quick reasons. As the Seahawks have gotten better over the past three seasons, the 49er’s success against them has diminished every time. 49er’s point total against us over the past three seasons: 33, 19, 13, 13, 3. The Seahawks have figured out how to win on the road, and the trip to SF is a 45 minute flight even for we broke serfs who have to do it via priceline riding coach. The Seahawks get to do it in a private jet. And maybe it’s because I only have the chaotic confines of the clink to compare it too, but any ‘home field advantage’ the 49ers might have is due to the post-apocalyptic vibe their decaying stadium exudes in its final year of existence than it does because of any fan participation (it seems half the 49ers fans expend their energy yelling when their team is on offense).

There are a few other factors here; and by few I mean three. And by three I mean number three. And by..okay well where I’m going with this is that Russell Wilson is a really good quarterback, and not just when he’s at home. Away from Seattle he sports a 103.5 passer rating and has thrown for 10 TDs and only 2 INTs.

Now, you might be saying, “But San Francisco’s defense is really good!”. True. They are pretty good; but Seattle has already played six of the top ten defenses in the NFL (Houston, SF, Carolina, Arizona, New Orleans, Tennessee). His combined stat line in those games: 63.2% 8 TD 2 INT 90.7 rating, 8.2 yards per completion, 258 rushing yards. Not astronomical numbers, but you’ll take them against the best defenses in the league. (Oddly enough his ‘worst’ statistical game was against Houston, which really brought those numbers down – even though it was his clutch plays late in the game and OT that really provided the spark for the comeback)

On the 49ers side of the ball offensively, they are dealing with the possibility of being without two of their starting offensive linemen, would could really swing things in the Seahawks favor should they not both play. RG Mike Iupati and LT Joe Staley are both dealing with Sprained MCL’s. Iupati’s injury came in week 11 againast the Saints and he has yet to play. Speculation is that he could be back this Sunday, although I did read a rumor that he told a sideline reporter that he might still be a couple weeks away during Sunday’s game with the Rams. There is yet to be any news on the MRI for Joe Staley, whom injured his knee in the first quarter last Sunday against the Rams, but early speculation assumes he will miss at least this Sunday’s matchup with the Seahawks.

If both players end up being out, this could be huge for a Seattle pass rush that has been keeping QB’s under constant pressure this season. The sacks haven’t been coming up in droves, but the pressure is obvious. Part of the reason for this could be due to the way that the Seattle cornerbacks are playing their coverages. I’m sure everyone heard Richard Sherman’s comments a few weeks back, "I don't want to be an island," Sherman said. "I want to be more of a tourist attraction. You stop here, I take your money and you go." The idea is that they try to make opposing QB’s think they have room to throw the ball when they really do not. This showed up a couple times vs. the Saints. Brees would toss the ball to a receiver in one-on-one coverage, and suddenly the CB (or LB in some cases) would turn on the jets and swat the ball away.

Another factor here is that a strong suit of the 49ers is their running game, but there has been some speculation that Frank Gore, whom is an ‘elder’ by NFL running back standards, is wearing out a bit as the season’s gone along. A banged up offensive line isn’t going to help that situation, as we know first hand here in Seattle.

Overall though, I simply believe that Seattle is the better team, with the better defense, the better QB, and the better running back. The 49ers are still a great team, and if they played a good game and came out on top, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised. However I also think that this past win over the Saints has to have done some amazing things for the confidence of the Seahawks. They’ve had a great season but there was always a lingering speculation about how they would do against a top-tier team. We got our answer on Monday, and I don’t see the cranked-up guys on this team letting up on their biggest rival now that they think they have arrived.

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[Spokanefan]

As far as rooting for the Saints, wouldn't you much rather have Cam Newton at the Clink for the first time rather than Brees for a second time? I mean, if one of the best QB's in the league can't handle the noise & what our D brings at home, there just isn't any way that Newton will be able to. At our house and with limited offensive weapons, I think we would force Newton into multiple turnovers - but I don't see us shutting Bree's down twice in a row.

Frankly, Cam just doesn't strike me as having the character to stand up to the pressure that comes with playing at Century Link field, and I'd guess that he'd fold really quickly once he started to get frustrated, which would be starting with their first first down! I say we should all root for the Panther's to go undefeated from now until the NFC championship game; I can't think of an NFC offense that I'd rather face at home than Carolina....

 

[JGfromtheNW]

Great write-up and breakdown. I hadn't realized that we have played six out the top ten defenses in the league this season. What's even more impressive is the fact that RW's passer rating is still at 90.7 against those teams.

I wish flights to SF were only 45 minutes :/ they're closer to two hours.

 

[Hawknballs]

As far as rooting for the Saints, wouldn't you much rather have Cam Newton at the Clink for the first time rather than Brees for a second time? I mean, if one of the best QB's in the league can't handle the noise & what our D brings at home, there just isn't any way that Newton will be able to. At our house and with limited offensive weapons, I think we would force Newton into multiple turnovers - but I don't see us shutting Bree's down twice in a row.

Frankly, Cam just doesn't strike me as having the character to stand up to the pressure that comes with playing at Century Link field, and I'd guess that he'd fold really quickly once he started to get frustrated, which would be starting with their first first down! I say we should all root for the Panther's to go undefeated from now until the NFC championship game; I can't think of an NFC offense that I'd rather face at home than Carolina....

My reasoning is that Carolina is a more difficult matchup based on the portability of a strong running game and a strong defense. Our pass defense is better than our run defense has been; our strong suit is lining up in man and based on the offense, selecting from cover 1, 2, 3 or 4 - we have the personnel to do it all. Especially at home, it's difficult to throw on us.

Carolina is one of the rare teams which, like ours, runs the ball more than they throw it, but basically a 1-for-1 split. New Orleans runs it 3 times for every 5 times they throw it. If we're playing at home, the 12th man advantage is much more prevalent in the passing game than the running game. Especially when you're talking about a freak athlete like Cam Newton, whom in a championship game situation is going to go all out and leave little on the field.

That's not even talking about defense. Carolina is a bad matchup for our run game. I realize we didn't run very successfully against the saints but we also didn't need too. Carolina has the best front 7 in football and that game is portable on the road. I'm just not sold on that Saints defense. They haven't played many prolific offenses this year. They are definitely improved from last year though.

So basically I see it like this:

Carolina - comes up here and we have a game that looks a lot like game 1 of the regular season. A low-scoring physical game, and honestly not the type of tough opponent I want us to get clobbered on right before the superbowl if that ends up being in the cards for us. Yes i will still give us the edge at home, but I think everyone is a bit biased and underestimating the panthers based on the fact that we've beaten them the last two regular seasons. Really, you should be looking at the Panthers the way that other teams should have been looking at the Seahawks at the end of last year - a team good enough to beat any team if a few things go their way with a good defense and a physical style of play that isn't going to just hand you any easy wins.

Saints - come up here and play a game much like monday night, only they have more success moving the ball and scoring. Ultimately though I think our pass D is too good and Wilson is too good at home against a defense i'm not totally sold on. Nothing about the Saints game plan worked on monday so they are basically going to have to start from scratch, and our coaching is good enough to not just go in with the same exact plan and let them dissect it.


What it boils down to for me is that the Saints could come in here and with Drew Brees, an excellent QB, completely light us up on a good day and blow us out of the water, but that's not as likely as the Panthers coming in here and playing a 3-hour slug fest with us and having the game come down to a field goal for whichever team has the ball last to win the game 13-10. I simply like our matchup and our odds against the Saints better, plus they are less likely to batter our O-line and running backs before we're going to need them in new york. Or jersey or wherever.

 

[Spokanefan]

As far as rooting for the Saints, wouldn't you much rather have Cam Newton at the Clink for the first time rather than Brees for a second time? I mean, if one of the best QB's in the league can't handle the noise & what our D brings at home, there just isn't any way that Newton will be able to. At our house and with limited offensive weapons, I think we would force Newton into multiple turnovers - but I don't see us shutting Bree's down twice in a row.

Frankly, Cam just doesn't strike me as having the character to stand up to the pressure that comes with playing at Century Link field, and I'd guess that he'd fold really quickly once he started to get frustrated, which would be starting with their first first down! I say we should all root for the Panther's to go undefeated from now until the NFC championship game; I can't think of an NFC offense that I'd rather face at home than Carolina....

My reasoning is that Carolina is a more difficult matchup based on the portability of a strong running game and a strong defense. Our pass defense is better than our run defense has been; our strong suit is lining up in man and based on the offense, selecting from cover 1, 2, 3 or 4 - we have the personnel to do it all. Especially at home, it's difficult to throw on us.

Carolina is one of the rare teams which, like ours, runs the ball more than they throw it, but basically a 1-for-1 split. New Orleans runs it 3 times for every 5 times they throw it. If we're playing at home, the 12th man advantage is much more prevalent in the passing game than the running game. Especially when you're talking about a freak athlete like Cam Newton, whom in a championship game situation is going to go all out and leave little on the field.

That's not even talking about defense. Carolina is a bad matchup for our run game. I realize we didn't run very successfully against the saints but we also didn't need too. Carolina has the best front 7 in football and that game is portable on the road. I'm just not sold on that Saints defense. They haven't played many prolific offenses this year. They are definitely improved from last year though.

So basically I see it like this:

Carolina - comes up here and we have a game that looks a lot like game 1 of the regular season. A low-scoring physical game, and honestly not the type of tough opponent I want us to get clobbered on right before the superbowl if that ends up being in the cards for us. Yes i will still give us the edge at home, but I think everyone is a bit biased and underestimating the panthers based on the fact that we've beaten them the last two regular seasons. Really, you should be looking at the Panthers the way that other teams should have been looking at the Seahawks at the end of last year - a team good enough to beat any team if a few things go their way with a good defense and a physical style of play that isn't going to just hand you any easy wins.

Saints - come up here and play a game much like monday night, only they have more success moving the ball and scoring. Ultimately though I think our pass D is too good and Wilson is too good at home against a defense i'm not totally sold on. Nothing about the Saints game plan worked on monday so they are basically going to have to start from scratch, and our coaching is good enough to not just go in with the same exact plan and let them dissect it.


What it boils down to for me is that the Saints could come in here and with Drew Brees, an excellent QB, completely light us up on a good day and blow us out of the water, but that's not as likely as the Panthers coming in here and playing a 3-hour slug fest with us and having the game come down to a field goal for whichever team has the ball last to win the game 13-10. I simply like our matchup and our odds against the Saints better, plus they are less likely to batter our O-line and running backs before we're going to need them in new york. Or jersey or wherever.

Yes, I get what you are saying, can't really disagree with your reasoning, and it could go down that way. But, if our D gave up only 7 at their house, I'd say that's the absolute max they'd get here, and we're now a lot better now then we were in the season opener Carolina - we were just figuring out what pieces we had (especially on the D-line), and Irvin was out. We've shut down Newton in his place not once but twice, and I think he'd freak out in CLink; Cam just seems like he'd be Kaepernick times two, and I'd bet that he'd force the ball (unlike Brees, who refused to take risks), and we'd get some picks & not just a fumble. I'd rather face that than Brees again with the potential to get picked apart the way Luck did in the second half or the way Schaub did early on....

As far as our offense vs. their D, yes, they are leading the NFL in scoring D, and we scored only 12 points back in September, but again, that was very early and on the road. We killed the Saints with our passing game, yet they are actually slightly better than Carolina is in defending the pass. The Panthers are better against the run than the Saints (#2 vs. #16), but it's hard to believe we could get any fewer rushing yards (other than Russell) than we did against the Saints. If Lynch can get only 40 rushing yards and we score 34, it's hard to see how Carolina is any more of a threat to stop us than was New Orleans.

So, for me, of the NFC possibilities, it's New Orleans I'd least like to see, followed by the Panthers, and then everybody else.

 

[NorCalHawk12]

I wouldn’t dare Russell Wilson to become an astronaut because 31 days later he’d be doing a press conference from orbit while on a space walk.

I laughed and laughed...

Thanks Hawknballs, great info, as usual...can't live without it (in a football sense).