The Hawks playing down to the competion under Carroll myth

[niveky]

From 2012-2018(from when Carroll/Schnieder got his roster set how he'd been working to build it)
Total Record 75-36-1

Here is the breakdown of losses and wins and within 7 points and by over 7 points.

2012
All losses(5) by 7 or less
4 wins by 7 or less.
7 wins by 10 or more

2013
All losses(3) by 7 or less
5 wins by 7 or less
8 wins by 10 or more

2014
3 losses under 7
1 loss over 7
3 wins 7 or less
9 wins 10 or more

2015
5 losses by 7 or less
1 loss by 10
2 wins by 7 or less
8 wins by 9 or more

2016
4 losses by 7 or less
1 loss by over 10
5 wins by 7 or less
5 wins by 7 or more
1 tie

2017
5 losses by 7 or less
2 losses by over 7
5 wins by 7 or less
4 wins by over 7

2018
5 losses by 7 or less
1 loss by over 7
5 wins by 7 or less
5 wins by 7 or more

Full Breakdown
Losses by 7 or less 30
Losses by over 7 6
Wins by 7 or less 29
Wins by by over 7 46
ties 1


Looking at all of this data, what we see is just a confirmation of the results from the style of play that Carroll typically wants to employ. Carroll wants to lean on the run game, limit mistakes(I know penalties have been a thing but really emphasizes staying on assignments, technique, limiting turnovers) He also wants to create opportunities for explosive plays and/or coach up taking advantage of situations that could lead to explosive plays.

There are other factors posters like to look to, like Wilson being held back, not utilizing proper adjustments during games at times, bad coaching decisions, etc. Despite all of the issues I see posted about the Seahawks have been consistently among the most competitive and successful teams of the last 7 years.

Typically these Carroll coached teams are going to be in most games and usually have a chance to win lost games all the way until the very end. The ball doesn't always bounce their way in those situations but under his run it falls their way more often than not. Some might consider that luck, but I would chalk it up more to coaching and execution(although having a magician under center certainly helps lol).

We have to remember that this IS the NFL and any given week any team can win. These are the best players in the world all across the board, even on the 'crappy' teams. Coaching, motivation, and any other number of factors I will not get in to at this time can affect any given game. This is why there are a decent amount of upsets every season.

With a ball control offense and a defense that is more basic than others in the league with an emphasis on execution and living with those yards between the 20's, there will be hand wringing at times. This team is merely functioning, and has functioned as Pete has wanted it to since he had the roster largely how he has wanted it.

 

[LTH]

From 2012-2018(from when Carroll/Schnieder got his roster set how he'd been working to build it)
Total Record 75-36-1

Here is the breakdown of losses and wins and within 7 points and by over 7 points.

2012
All losses(5) by 7 or less
4 wins by 7 or less.
7 wins by 10 or more

2013
All losses(3) by 7 or less
5 wins by 7 or less
8 wins by 10 or more

2014
3 losses under 7
1 loss over 7
3 wins 7 or less
9 wins 10 or more

2015
5 losses by 7 or less
1 loss by 10
2 wins by 7 or less
8 wins by 9 or more

2016
4 losses by 7 or less
1 loss by over 10
5 wins by 7 or less
5 wins by 7 or more
1 tie

2017
5 losses by 7 or less
2 losses by over 7
5 wins by 7 or less
4 wins by over 7

2018
5 losses by 7 or less
1 loss by over 7
5 wins by 7 or less
5 wins by 7 or more

Full Breakdown
Losses by 7 or less 30
Losses by over 7 6
Wins by 7 or less 29
Wins by by over 7 46
ties 1


Looking at all of this data, what we see is just a confirmation of the results from the style of play that Carroll typically wants to employ. Carroll wants to lean on the run game, limit mistakes(I know penalties have been a thing but really emphasizes staying on assignments, technique, limiting turnovers) He also wants to create opportunities for explosive plays and/or coach up taking advantage of situations that could lead to explosive plays.

There are other factors posters like to look to, like Wilson being held back, not utilizing proper adjustments during games at times, bad coaching decisions, etc. Despite all of the issues I see posted about the Seahawks have been consistently among the most competitive and successful teams of the last 7 years.

Typically these Carroll coached teams are going to be in most games and usually have a chance to win lost games all the way until the very end. The ball doesn't always bounce their way in those situations but under his run it falls their way more often than not. Some might consider that luck, but I would chalk it up more to coaching and execution(although having a magician under center certainly helps lol).

We have to remember that this IS the NFL and any given week any team can win. These are the best players in the world all across the board, even on the 'crappy' teams. Coaching, motivation, and any other number of factors I will not get in to at this time can affect any given game. This is why there are a decent amount of upsets every season.

With a ball control offense and a defense that is more basic than others in the league with an emphasis on execution and living with those yards between the 20's, there will be hand wringing at times. This team is merely functioning, and has functioned as Pete has wanted it to since he had the roster largely how he has wanted it.

Nice post!

 

[niveky]

Nice post!

Thanks. I just get so sick of people writing them off as playing down to their competition when it's more a function of what Carroll wants from his team on both sides of the ball and how he wants them to execute those plans.

 

[justafan]

Nice write up. Another factor is every team gets up to play the better teams in the league. We have had a target on our backs for several years IMO.

 

[John63]

Okay great but if we tweaked this philosophy just a little we would not have as many of the nail bitters. You know tweak it and take advantage of the current rules rather than the rules of 20 years ago that may not even exist anymore.

 

[MO Hawk]

The only problem with this method is it leaves us fans stressed out the entire game and totally exhausted when it is over.

Why can't we blow teams out 50% of the team so we can sit back and enjoy it?

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Nice post!

Thanks. I just get so sick of people writing them off as playing down to their competition when it's more a function of what Carroll wants from his team on both sides of the ball and how he wants them to execute those plans.

IMO it's more we haven't been good enough to win big or put opponents away in the 4th quarter like we used to, rather than some sort of scheme deficiency on Pete's part allowing average to bad teams to hang around.

Yeah when you have an all time great defense you're going to win a lot of games by double digits and in the 4th quarter going away. When you've got an average defense, you're going to win a lot of close games hoping Russell pulls it out late, which he's done.

Right now we're in the average defense phase of the development of this team. This defense just isn't good enough to put teams away, or step on their throat for 60 minutes allowing more 21-6 type of games. Now the games are 24-21 and 32-28.

 

[niveky]

The only problem with this method is it leaves us fans stressed out the entire game and totally exhausted when it is over.

Why can't we blow teams out 50% of the team so we can sit back and enjoy it?

61% of the time (46 of those 75 wins) they won by at least 7 and many times by between 10-20 or more points. Then you factor in the little chunk of blow out losses in that and I really don't feel like the formula is bad, just as others have said, nerve wracking.

 

[niveky]

Nice post!

Thanks. I just get so sick of people writing them off as playing down to their competition when it's more a function of what Carroll wants from his team on both sides of the ball and how he wants them to execute those plans.

IMO it's more we haven't been good enough to win big or put opponents away in the 4th quarter like we used to, rather than some sort of scheme deficiency on Pete's part allowing average to bad teams to hang around.

Yeah when you have an all time great defense you're going to win a lot of games by double digits and in the 4th quarter going away. When you've got an average defense, you're going to win a lot of close games hoping Russell pulls it out late, which he's done.

Right now we're in the average defense phase of the development of this team. This defense just isn't good enough to put teams away, or step on their throat for 60 minutes allowing more 21-6 type of games. Now the games are 24-21 and 32-28.

I feel like you make a lot of good points, although I feel if Pete would do more than just live with the penalties and somehow fit a more in depth plan into his program to deal with them and also make better in game decisions(challenges, taking/not taking timeouts, etc) I feel like the team would see a bit more in the runaway win department. I can agree with some of the gripes in those regards, but even with more recent history I haven't felt like the team really has played down to anyone. It's hard to stay at your best all the time and as someone else in this thread was pointing out, when a team is having a lot of success they get a big target on their back and they are going to get the other team's best effort more often than not.