The Denver pick can easily move down to 5

[rjdriver]

Just heard the Bears are starting Nathan Peterman. I wonder what "injury" they came up with the Justin Fields?

Injury report has it as a sore JC joint.

The Jalen Carter joint is very pesky and tends to flair up late in the season.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Pow

 

[seabowl]

It’s official. NFL just announced that the Ravens Bengals game will be on at 1 PM eastern time. This is not good for the Seahawks, as if the Bengals win the game, the Chargers are playing for absolutely nothing at the 4 PM eastern time slot giving way to them sitting their players and a much better chance at the Broncos winning the game that would move Seattle down in the draft order.

One thing I missed though is that the likelihood would be that Seattle would get the fourth pick and not the fifth as Indianapolis is playing Houston and they will likely beat Houston because Houston’s owner will do anything to ensure they get the first pick.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Unless they still end up making up the Monday game, and they bump the playoffs out. If Buffalo and Cincy can still impact the playoff seeding, it will be interesting to see what the NFL does.

 

[seabowl]

Unless they still end up making up the Monday game, and they bump the playoffs out. If Buffalo and Cincy can still impact the playoff seeding, it will be interesting to see what the NFL does.

Unfortunately that game will have no bearing on the Charger Bronco game.

 

[Jville]

Well, there is also the quiet unspoken view that the team now has a surplus of draft capital. Consideration for parleying some 2023 draft capital into future draft capital might very well come into play.

The difference of a couple of spots in the draft order doesn't matter to me.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I have to remind myself to step back and appreciate. This team is going to have a top 5 pick, from Denver. And another in the 2nd round.
In a season that many figured Denver would be pretty good, and the Hawks would suck. Very cool to be in this position.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Seattle isn't a young team, they are one of the oldest teams in the league but yeah I do think playoff experience is good for the younger guys on the team.

The #3 vs #5 I think is potentially huge for the Seahawks with lasting effects. I think there is a fairly big drop off after 4 in this draft for what Seattle needs ie a premier lineman or Quarterback.

The youngest team in the NFL was 25.0 years old with the oldest being 27.1 years old. The Seahawks were 26.1.

 

[Ozzy]

The youngest team in the NFL was 25.0 years old with the oldest being 27.1 years old. The Seahawks were 26.1.

Damn that’s narrower than I expected. Thanks for sharing. I think it’s fair to say we are young in some key areas at the least especially the tackle spots and the defensive backfield.

 

[seabowl]

Well, there is also the quiet unspoken view that the team now has a surplus of draft capital. Consideration for parleying some 2023 draft capital into future draft capital might very well come into play.

The difference of a couple of spots in the draft order doesn't matter to me.

Bledsoe Mirer, Trevor Lawrence Zach Wilson etc..

It does make a difference

 

[Lagartixa]

The youngest team in the NFL was 25.0 years old with the oldest being 27.1 years old. The Seahawks were 26.1.

I think that the roster age is less important than the snap-weighted age.

Both ages together could tell us even more.

 

[Hawkinaz]

Bledsoe Mirer, Trevor Lawrence Zach Wilson etc..

It does make a difference

Don’t forget Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf. Leaf was considered to have more upside and there was a rumor Indy went with Manning due to Leaf’s distain for the Colts. I always take those reports with a grain of salt

 

[ZornLargentPatera]

Who cares, I can't stand obsessing over draft positioning. Third, Fifth, who cares. I hope the pick is simply used to trade down for more picks anyway.

Remember when the Seahawks drafted Aaron Curry at Number Four? How'd that work out? Three seasons, 5.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Big whup.

 

[themunn]

Who cares, I can't stand obsessing over draft positioning. Third, Fifth, who cares. I hope the pick is simply used to trade down for more picks anyway.

Remember when the Seahawks drafted Aaron Curry at Number Four? How'd that work out? Three seasons, 5.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Big whup.

Kenny Easley - 4th overall
Cortez Kennedy - 3rd overall
Walter Jones - 6th overall

I'd say it matters, because with all of the rest of our draft picks in our entire history we've only managed 1 HoF selection outside those 3, and that was Steve Hutchison (17th overall). Sure Wagner will definitely make the HoF and maybe Sherman, ET, Wilson, Chancellor too some day, but til now our highest success rate has come with those picks at the top of the round (of which we haven't had many - Curt Warner, Jeff Bryant, Shawn Springs, Russell Okung all were top 6 selections, and only Mirer, Curry and Niehaus were busts, with the latter an injury bust more than anything).

 

[NoChops]

I wouldn't get hung up on it. Guys like LT, Deion, AJ Hawk, Ricky Williams, Junior Seau, all picked at #5.

How about #1 vs. #6? Orlando Pace vs. Walter Jones. You don't even have to be a homer to see that Jones was better in the end. More pro bowls, more All pro awards, started every game, etc.

 

[seabowl]

Kenny Easley - 4th overall
Cortez Kennedy - 3rd overall
Walter Jones - 6th overall

I'd say it matters, because with all of the rest of our draft picks in our entire history we've only managed 1 HoF selection outside those 3, and that was Steve Hutchison (17th overall). Sure Wagner will definitely make the HoF and maybe Sherman, ET, Wilson, Chancellor too some day, but til now our highest success rate has come with those picks at the top of the round (of which we haven't had many - Curt Warner, Jeff Bryant, Shawn Springs, Russell Okung all were top 6 selections, and only Mirer, Curry and Niehaus were busts, with the latter an injury bust more than anything).

Well said. Sorry but anyone that thinks it doesn’t matter just doesn’t understand the draft in my opinion. How have our first picks looked the last five years? It is better to have a higher pick, period.

 

[Lagartixa]

Who cares, I can't stand obsessing over draft positioning. Third, Fifth, who cares. I hope the pick is simply used to trade down for more picks anyway.

Remember when the Seahawks drafted Aaron Curry at Number Four? How'd that work out? Three seasons, 5.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Big whup.

I think you're basically right that it's not worth obsessing over #3 vs. #5 in the draft. Here's a long-winded explanation of why.

There are two well-known "draft charts." The first one, known as the Jimmy Johnson chart, for the NFL coach who made it famous, or the McCoy chart, after the man who did the actual work to produce it, was meant to determine roughly how much NFL front offices were valuing the different picks in trades. The second one, known as the Chase Stuart chart, had a different purpose: get a rough idea of how valuable each pick has been historically in terms of how much the players picked at those positions actually ended up producing in the NFL. Stuart used AV, which has its flaws, but is actually pretty well-suited to this kind of thing, because Stuart was looking at averages over a bunch of drafts (and therefore a bunch of players).
For a while, the JJ chart was a better guide to how much NFL front offices valued picks, while the Stuart chart was a better guide to how much a given pick could be expected to yield in terms of on-the-field-in-the-NFL production from the player drafted with that pick.
According to the Stuart chart, the fifth pick should be expected to produce, on average, about 11% less than the third pick. Some things may have changed since Stuart made the chart in 2012, but still, we can see that the difference between pick #3 and pick #5 is not that big on average. Players picked at both spots in the draft can end up great, and players picked at both spots can be busts.
I'd actually like to see the charts with standard deviations added in, something like "pick 3 has been worth 27.6 ± (whatever) AV historically over (whatever year-whataver other year)," with the "plus or minus" being a standard deviation or some other measure of the width of the distribution of value. Plots of the historical distributions could also be really useful, if placed in a column like the distributions of possible outcomes for a given team in the soccer standings on FiveThirtyEight. I'll include an image here. It's the "EVERY POSITION" column, and I've placed a red arrow pointing to it.

But the main point is that even without knowing details of the widths of the distribution now, I'm pretty sure that your assertion is basically right. There is a noticeable difference in expected value between the third and fifth picks, but it's not enormous, and in a single draft, the difference could easily be washed out by differences in how players actually end up producing compared to the respective expectation values.

 

[bigskydoc]

Seattle isn't a young team, they are one of the oldest teams in the league but yeah I do think playoff experience is good for the younger guys on the team.

The #3 vs #5 I think is potentially huge for the Seahawks with lasting effects. I think there is a fairly big drop off after 4 in this draft for what Seattle needs ie a premier lineman or Quarterback.

Only one team has more rookie snaps than the Seahawks. In terms of the players who are getting actual time on the field, the Seahawks are one of the youngest teams in the league.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Who cares, I can't stand obsessing over draft positioning. Third, Fifth, who cares. I hope the pick is simply used to trade down for more picks anyway.

Remember when the Seahawks drafted Aaron Curry at Number Four? How'd that work out? Three seasons, 5.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Big whup.

Well, most of the league would have taken Aaron Curry. He was a phenomenal player in college.

Also, Young Team

 

[seabowl]

I’ll spell it out. As of right now this is a 4 player draft.

Young, Stroud, Anderson, Carter

After that there is a large perceived drop off. I do not care how previous drafts played out as this draft and its actual players is all that matters. Again after some analysis, I revised my original statement to say it’s likely that the worst Seattle does is get the #4 so that’s good. Would still obviously rather have the #3 as it provides options.