Poll: Can Hawks Reach&Win Super Bowl w/o effective run game?

[Hawkscanner]

Mission Impossible? -- Finding the Running Game ...

Can this Seahawks team both reach and win the Super Bowl without an effective running game?

Can this Seahawks team once again find its running game in the time remaining this season? Those are key questions and ones that I believe will ultimately decide the fate of this Seahawks team in the postseason.

From the coaching staff to all of us 12’s, I don’t think that anyone would argue that a HUGE Priority for this team in this upcoming game (arguably Priority #1) NEEDS to be establishing the run. This team has simply has GOT to find its running game heading into the playoffs ... and Saturday’s contest against the Cardinals is the last opportunity – the last true test of the regular season to be able to do that. AND there is good reason to believe that the Seahawks running game could have some success against the Cardinals this Saturday.

I've been taking a look at the Cardinals Rush Defense numbers ... and though (heading into yesterday) they were the 7th Best in terms of Rush DVOA, there is an interesting disparity in the Cardinals Defensive numbers -- home vs. road. I’ve highlighted those for you below …

Week	Opponent	Result	Opp. Rush Offense DVOA Rank	Carries Against	Rushing Yards Allowed	[Rushing TD’s Allowed
1	vs. Patriots	23-21 Loss	16	31	106	1
2	vs. Bucs	40-7 Win	31	21	85	0
3	at Bills	33-18 Loss	1	32	208	3
4	vs. Rams	17-13 Loss	30	21	41	0
5	at 49ers	33-21 Win	3	36	151	2
6	vs. Jets	28-3 Win	9	14	33	0
7	vs. Seahawks	6-6 Tie	18	16	52	0
8	at Panthers	30-20 Loss	21	36	141	2
10	vs. 49ers	23-20 Win	3	28	83	1
11	at Vikings	30-24 Loss	29	24	72	1
12	at Falcons	38-19 Loss	6	30	116	3
13	vs. Redskins	31-23 Win	4	18	87	1
14	at Dolphins	26-23 Loss	13	31	83	0
15	vs. Saints	48-41 Loss	12	32	132	2

[th] [tdo=4]2016 Cardinals Rush Defense (Home vs. Road) …[/tdo] [/th] [/color][/b]

Place	Carries Against	Rushing Yds Allowed	Avg. Yds/Carry Allowed	Rushing TD’s Allowed	Avg. Points Allowed
Home	184	619	3.36	5	18.38
Away	189	771	4.1	11	29.66

[tdo=4]2016 Cardinals Defense (Home vs. Road) …[/tdo]

Now, obviously a lot of those numbers are heavily influenced by the strength of opponent and player health (obviously) ... but that said, the differences are pretty apparent. I think that most of us can readily admit that the Seahawks have been a vastly different team at home ... vs. on the road. Well ... the same thing can be said for this Arizona Cardinal team as well. On the road, they are allowing nearly a yard more per rush on average and have yielded 6 more rushing TD’s in 2 less games. Their traditionally stout defense is also giving up an average of 11 more points a game on the road vs. at home. If this Seahawks team has any aspirations of advancing deep into the playoffs … then finding and establishing an effective running attack is a necessity. Doing so requires as much practice as they can get against quality competition (and the Cardinals represent the last decent defense they’ll face in the regular season). The first step in the journey to the Super Bowl could very well begin this Saturday … and it all starts with a commitment to #3 handing the ball off.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

What 3 defenses do you think could hamper our play in the playoffs? Just curious. I think Green Bay was decent but not overwhelming.

Thanks for the input.

 

[capncrunch]

What 3 defenses do you think could hamper our play in the playoffs? Just curious. I think Green Bay was decent but not overwhelming.

Thanks for the input.

NY, Tampa and GB in that order.

 

[mistaowen]

What 3 defenses do you think could hamper our play in the playoffs? Just curious. I think Green Bay was decent but not overwhelming.

Thanks for the input.

Giants defense is good. Packers defense would realistically have to play in Seattle if it came to that and I think Russ doesn't miss 2-3 easy TDs.

Biggest worry for me is the Giants, this seems to be one of their 3-4 years out of hibernation seasons.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

Thanks guys.

 

[Hawkscanner]

What 3 defenses do you think could hamper our play in the playoffs? Just curious. I think Green Bay was decent but not overwhelming.

Thanks for the input.

I think that your key focus question and mine are slightly different. Looking strictly at the NFC Teams that have either made (or are projected to make) the playoffs, I would tend to agree with you. Looking at those teams, you don’t see a truly dominant defense. That said, Green Bay’s defense did give Russell Wilson fits … and Atlanta played us very tough. My key question is slightly different however, which is:

Can this Seahawks team both reach and win the Super Bowl without an effective running game?

I’m not so certain that it can. Given the absence of Earl Thomas, if this team is to both make and win the Super Bowl, the offense is probably going to have to pick up some of the slack. I think many of us would agree with that. Aaron Rodgers showed us pretty definitively just what an elite QB can do against a now compromised Legion of Boom. I could also envision Matthew Stafford and that explosive Lion Offense having similar success – if you give that offense enough opportunities. Eli Manning is capable of making big plays as well. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliot, and that Dallas Offense – same exact thing IF you give them enough opportunities as well (particularly given the NFC Championship Game would be on the road in Dallas). That especially becomes true if the Seahawks actually make the Super Bowl and have to face Tom Brady and New England again. An effective running game would go a long way towards minimizing the opportunities opposing offenses (and especially elite caliber QB’s) are going to have against our secondary.

What we’ve consistently seen out of this Seahawks Offense … is inconsistency. This team has shown it is capable of occasionally striking for big explosive plays … but it has also shown a propensity for complete ineptitude as well. To make and win the Super Bowl, IMO a team has got to at least have a legitimate threat of the run. Prior to this year, the Seahawks Running Game has been a well-oiled and smooth running machine that has been the very heartbeat of what makes this offense go. This year, the lack of an effective running game has really sputtered this offense. Play action and overall success in the passing game is predicated upon this team being able to effectively run the ball. If this Seahawks Offense continues to be mostly one dimensional, then I believe it’s highly unlikely they’ll end up playing in Houston this February.

 

[Hawks46]

Good stuff Hawkscanner.

OL success has a lot to do with cohesiveness, and with that said...I wouldn't look to us running the ball well against decent defensive fronts, or defensive fronts with 1-2 dominant players. Here's my breakdown:

Ifedi and Fant are both young and raw. They both miss assignments and don't have the greatest technique, although both are very athletic.

Glowsinki is decent, but he's not good at combo blocking. He consistently misses or doesn't finish his combo block before moving on to find the LBer. This causes the DLman to usually win the battle with the other OL. It's a problem all season and I don't see it changing soon.

RT is a mess and neither Sowell or Gilliam are showing much.

The OL is consistently pass blocking better. I think our pass protections are simpler than our run blocking assignments and our guys are doing ok here. Unless we face an average to weak DL, we're not going to run the ball really well. Sorry.

We're going to have to rely on Wilson playing better and completing more passes and making the most of his opportunities. Coupled with better pass protection than run blocking, this is where we're going to have to make our hay in the playoffs. We have the skill players to get to and win the Superbowl. Baldwin, Lockett and Graham are really good together and when you throw in Willson and Rawls we might have the deepest skill position corps in the playoffs.

I also think we're going to have to make a NY Giants type of run, in the face of the NY Giants making their run. What I mean is that our DL is going to have to dominate and harass QB's with Thomas being out.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Good stuff Hawkscanner.

OL success has a lot to do with cohesiveness, and with that said...I wouldn't look to us running the ball well against decent defensive fronts, or defensive fronts with 1-2 dominant players. Here's my breakdown:

Ifedi and Fant are both young and raw. They both miss assignments and don't have the greatest technique, although both are very athletic.

Glowsinki is decent, but he's not good at combo blocking. He consistently misses or doesn't finish his combo block before moving on to find the LBer. This causes the DLman to usually win the battle with the other OL. It's a problem all season and I don't see it changing soon.

RT is a mess and neither Sowell or Gilliam are showing much.

The OL is consistently pass blocking better. I think our pass protections are simpler than our run blocking assignments and our guys are doing ok here. Unless we face an average to weak DL, we're not going to run the ball really well. Sorry.

Good stuff as well Hawks46. I would tend to agree with your assessment of each of the O-Linemen. That pretty much dovetails with what my eyeballs tell me as well. I watched Ifedi get beaten like a drum again and again and again by Donald, who pretty much threw him aside like a rag doll seemingly on nearly every play. As we've all acknowledged many times -- that Front 4 of the Rams is arguably the best D-Line in the game.

But outside of the Giants (if we end up facing them in the 2nd Round) ... who else in the NFC has a D-Line that is that
dominant and could potentially completely shut down the run game with just their Front 4? I don't see any team in the NFC doing that. In the AFC, the only 2 potential playoff teams I could see doing that would be the Ravens and the Broncos. Outside of those teams, I don't see really good defensive fronts ... which means that teams that want to gear up to stop the run are going to have to stack the box and commit LB's and Safeties to do so. Ideally, you want to have a running game that's at least enough of a threat to warrant teams wanting to do that ... because that opens up things for the passing game. I know it's asking a lot with just 2 regular season games to go, but I'm hoping that this team can at least improve enough to get to the level where teams are going to want to do that rather than simply sit back and play in nickel and dime all the time.

We're going to have to rely on Wilson playing better and completing more passes and making the most of his opportunities. Coupled with better pass protection than run blocking, this is where we're going to have to make our hay in the playoffs. We have the skill players to get to and win the Superbowl. Baldwin, Lockett and Graham are really good together and when you throw in Willson and Rawls we might have the deepest skill position corps in the playoffs.

I also think we're going to have to make a NY Giants type of run, in the face of the NY Giants making their run. What I mean is that our DL is going to have to dominate and harass QB's with Thomas being out.

I agree that simply looking at our skill players (Baldwin, Lockett, Graham, etc.) we have the weapons ... but without even a halfway decent run game, I'm skeptical that the passing game alone (as it stands right now) is going to be enough to power us all the way to Houston. We'll see if it is because I'm afraid that you may be right in your assessment of what we're going to have to hang our hopes upon.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

What 3 defenses do you think could hamper our play in the playoffs? Just curious. I think Green Bay was decent but not overwhelming.

Thanks for the input.

I think that your key focus question and mine are slightly different. Looking strictly at the NFC Teams that have either made (or are projected to make) the playoffs, I would tend to agree with you. Looking at those teams, you don’t see a truly dominant defense. That said, Green Bay’s defense did give Russell Wilson fits … and Atlanta played us very tough. My key question is slightly different however, which is:

Can this Seahawks team both reach and win the Super Bowl without an effective running game?

I’m not so certain that it can. Given the absence of Earl Thomas, if this team is to both make and win the Super Bowl, the offense is probably going to have to pick up some of the slack. I think many of us would agree with that. Aaron Rodgers showed us pretty definitively just what an elite QB can do against a now compromised Legion of Boom. I could also envision Matthew Stafford and that explosive Lion Offense having similar success – if you give that offense enough opportunities. Eli Manning is capable of making big plays as well. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliot, and that Dallas Offense – same exact thing IF you give them enough opportunities as well (particularly given the NFC Championship Game would be on the road in Dallas). That especially becomes true if the Seahawks actually make the Super Bowl and have to face Tom Brady and New England again. An effective running game would go a long way towards minimizing the opportunities opposing offenses (and especially elite caliber QB’s) are going to have against our secondary.

What we’ve consistently seen out of this Seahawks Offense … is inconsistency. This team has shown it is capable of occasionally striking for big explosive plays … but it has also shown a propensity for complete ineptitude as well. To make and win the Super Bowl, IMO a team has got to at least have a legitimate threat of the run. Prior to this year, the Seahawks Running Game has been a well-oiled and smooth running machine that has been the very heartbeat of what makes this offense go. This year, the lack of an effective running game has really sputtered this offense. Play action and overall success in the passing game is predicated upon this team being able to effectively run the ball. If this Seahawks Offense continues to be mostly one dimensional, then I believe it’s highly unlikely they’ll end up playing in Houston this February.

I should have replied differently. But we are on the same page of the running game. I should have asked what other teams are there that can stop our run game...and you would have probably said the way our run game is now....All of them. Our front line is not making creases for our running backs to slide thru for any yardage and that is how things changed from last year after Beasty went down. Rawls did admirably, but was not as beastly which is why our team converted to more of a West-Coast-offense. Their identity is still shifty even now in the latter part of this season. Do we have the tools to go all the way? Yes. Will the team use them to their utmost in play.....unknown. Any given Thursday....er uh...Monday...er Uh....Sunday..er uh Saturday....

 

[Largent80]

Week to week it appears that the Seahawks are facing the best defensive front in the league.

We all know that 16 teams are not the best in the league, so at some point, fingers need to be pointed in the O-Lines direction. The mere fact that we are still rotating RT at this point of the season is a harbinger.

It's hard to envision the way this team is playing right now as a SB champion. Up...Down...Up....Down, what?.....are we on a friggin merry-go-round?

We should be able to run on AZ and SF to close out the year but that is hardly confidence building competition, as it will get way tougher going forward.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Thanks for the responses so far guys. Good thoughts overall. I have a slightly different question that I'd love to get some thoughts on, and that's this ...

With the time remaining this season, can Seattle's run game improve to the point of being NFL average?"

That's an interesting question and it all depends on how you look at it. According to Football Outsiders, they have the Seahawks run game ranked #18 in terms of DVOA (admittedly DVOA is far from a perfect measuring rod), so if you accept their opinion, Seattle is virtually there. As it stands right now, Seattle's run game is averaging 3.5 yards/carry. Can they improve to the point where they're consistently giving more like 4.0 yards/carry? Given the inexperience of this O-Line, is that too high of a mountain to scale though in too short an amount of time? Personally, I think if they make it a real intense point of emphasis, I wonder if it might not be possible. And if that happens, I would add this -- if this Seahawks team can get back to generating just average NFL production ... then this team most certainly is a serious Super Bowl title contender. Thoughts?

 

[LeftHandSmoke]

If they can get the run game effective enough that D's start having to respect it, ~and~ the passing game gets more efficient as a result, well then yes this offense could snowball and be good enough to put 30 on anybody.

Without that it is hard to imagine winning many if any playoff games.

 

[cymatica]

Most definetely yes, if they use the quick passing game and be aggressive. They lost the run game when rawls went out last season and beat Minny. They would have beat Carolina if they didn't step on their own feet in that first half. Two games, on the road, both 10am, and no run game. If Rawls stays healthy that's a big plus. Of course, the o-line very well may ruin everything.

 

[chris98251]

Not if they keep playing musical chairs with our tackles.

 

[LeftHandSmoke]

Run stats for left, middle, right

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffRatcliff ... 8273485828

Hawks are better running to the right, by far.

 

[IndyHawk]

If they can get the run game effective enough that D's start having to respect it, ~and~ the passing game gets more efficient as a result, well then yes this offense could snowball and be good enough to put 30 on anybody.

Without that it is hard to imagine winning many if any playoff games.

You could argue to use the passing game to create a better running game.I mean if RW cannot throw like the GB game,Then there is no running game period.They were running ok early and just stopped after a couple of turnovers.I myself love the spread attack we used late last year and think that woulf be best to go back to but PC is one stubborn
coach.He is a winner however and knows more than us but damn I wish he would game plan better against certain D's

 

[LeftHandSmoke]

If they can get the run game effective enough that D's start having to respect it, ~and~ the passing game gets more efficient as a result, well then yes this offense could snowball and be good enough to put 30 on anybody.

Without that it is hard to imagine winning many if any playoff games.

You could argue to use the passing game to create a better running game.I mean if RW cannot throw like the GB game,Then there is no running game period.They were running ok early and just stopped after a couple of turnovers.I myself love the spread attack we used late last year and think that woulf be best to go back to but PC is one stubborn
coach.He is a winner however and knows more than us but damn I wish he would game plan better against certain D's

Yep, you can for sure make a good argument for that.

I keep coming back to what PC says about him aiming to run the ball effectively because 'it closes the circle on physicality.' He wants the running game to punish the defense, put the hurt on them. That is how he sees the rest opening up, it is as a result of beat-down. Rawls is the right guy and despite his terrible YPC numbers in the Rams game he did put the hurt on some of those tacklers, including guys in their secondary, and so it's arguable that the 3 passing TD's were easier because of it.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

Thanks for the responses so far guys. Good thoughts overall. I have a slightly different question that I'd love to get some thoughts on, and that's this ...

With the time remaining this season, can Seattle's run game improve to the point of being NFL average?"

That's an interesting question and it all depends on how you look at it. According to Football Outsiders, they have the Seahawks run game ranked #18 in terms of DVOA (admittedly DVOA is far from a perfect measuring rod), so if you accept their opinion, Seattle is virtually there. As it stands right now, Seattle's run game is averaging 3.5 yards/carry. Can they improve to the point where they're consistently giving more like 4.0 yards/carry? Given the inexperience of this O-Line, is that too high of a mountain to scale though in too short an amount of time? Personally, I think if they make it a real intense point of emphasis, I wonder if it might not be possible. And if that happens, I would add this -- if this Seahawks team can get back to generating just average NFL production ... then this team most certainly is a serious Super Bowl title contender. Thoughts?

With the people that have been injured that are making their way back to operable status, yes.

In the beginning of the season we start off hard on the run. That allows us to maintain possession and keep control of the round thing. Once you go to a pass percentage offense, you lose that possession thing and the control of that round thing is in the air. This is why the mantra of controlling the ball that Pete has issued to the players. In the middle of the season if that run philosophy is not established and running on all cylinders so to speak, then we have to change up the arsenal and use different weapons to maintain that same possession philosophy. SHort throws that maintain possession for most of the game. Once in a while go for the big one and if you win, great, if you lose then make sure they are on their heels in their backyard. That means that our defense had more control of the game. But I digress.

With our stable of running backs and Running Back By committee....we do have a chance of making it League average. With Rawls back, we have a chance of top 1/4 of league average. That is all. Have a great day.

 

[mrblitz]

i think that the zone blocking thing is too complex, and for the past 2 or 3 years, they haven't even assembled the correct personnel to run that.

if memory serves, last year, they briefly went to a 'straight-ahead, power-running game' and that was where rawls got his 200-yard game.

given the raw talent of our o-linemen, they need to dump the zone blocking thing, and just tell everyone to 'put a hat on a hat, and push'. they'll be fine if they do that.

 

[LeftHandSmoke]

With Rawls being out most of the season and CMike let go (doh! he was by far our only rusher) and the merry go round even again yesterday, I have completely lost track of how many RB's that RW has had to try work with in his backfield this season. My guess is somewhere more than eight, and counting.

It has been a disaster but hopefully Rawls solidifies the position starting this week and lasting for as long as they can.