Paul Richardson....

[olyfan63]

...
I like Richardson and am happy he's gaining chemistry with Wilson, but he's not one of our big play receivers.

Big Plays vs targets per player (minimum 15 targets):

Helfert: 20.8%
Lockette: 20%
Willson: 16.7%
Turbin: 15.8%
Baldwin: 14.9%
Lynch 11%
Kearse: 10.4%
Richardson: 5.6%
Harvin: 3.9%

If you make the cutoff 36 targets, the number of targets Richardson has:
Willson: 16.7%
Baldwin: 14.9%
Lynch 11%
Kearse: 10.4%
Richardson: 5.6%

We're a team that has players making big time plays. Richardson isn't in that league just yet, but he's getting there. He still has a long ways to go.

Nice stats! One fascinating thing these show is the importance of the receiving TE in the Seahawks offense in big plays, in the relative absence of "big play WR's". With the 15 targets rule, 2 of the top 3 are TE's!

It would be interesting to see these numbers from last year (and 2012 too), factoring in Golden Tate, and (when healthy) Sidney Rice. Got those numbers anywhere?

This year, it's been stunning to see the plays that TE Cooper Helfet (who??!!) has had (including a nice game-winning TD play) in the passing game, plus TE Luke Wilson having a career-in-one-game against the Cardinals. Add in the performance of Zach Miller in the 2012 playoffs, especially against Atlanta, and Russell clearly loves having receiving TE targets in the passing game.

The flipside is that we need massive help in the WR area to have big-play threats. These numbers show that PRich has a ways to go to have much impact there. In fact, the 36 targets, 2 of the top 3 "big play" threats are non-WR positions, with Lynch sneaking in. This sure points out the need for improving the "threat" of the WR position, through a combination of draft, trade, FA, and further developing current players. (and continuing to improve OL pass protection and Russell's confidence in it for hanging in and making deep throws)

I'd have to think Pete is aware of the issues these numbers point out, and has high hopes, for the PRich part, to improve PRich's big play numbers going forward, as he develops and gains chemistry with Russell. I think the downfield big-play and defense-stretching potential is why PC/JS explicitly chose Richardson over Jordan Mathews (now with Eagles), one of the few receivers taken after PRich who's had an impact as a rookie. That, and feeling like Norwood could be the Jordan Matthews type of receiver for us, at a lower cost. In the meantime, in Pete-speak, PRich has shown us really, really good stuff with his short and intermediate route running and overall WR savvy.

To the point of the thread, Baldwin is still clearly the best WR on the team, and it's not that close--YET. The fact that Baldwin gets in as many big plays as he does is a huge credit to him and his chemistry with Russell. Baldwin's just going to keep doing what he does; If PRich continues to develop and cause more challenges for defenses, it only helps Baldwin's game too.

 

[kjreid]

Great Hands, awesome Speed, raw natural talent (nose for the ball) but..........poor route runner, once he figures out the routes and how to read the DB, watch out he will be good.

 

[akscoundrel]

No, Doug Baldwin is clearly the best WR on the team.

However, Richardson has done an excellent job coming back and bailing out RW when he gets in trouble.

I have a bit of hope for him to be a solid piece, but I still am not convinced he was worth the pick (he's still young, plenty of time).

I admire you sticking to your guns with this argument, despite the weekly growing evidence against it.

Takes a certain amount of courage....... 8)

I like Richardson and am happy he's gaining chemistry with Wilson, but he's not one of our big play receivers.

Big Plays vs targets per player (minimum 15 targets):

Helfert: 20.8%
Lockette: 20%
Willson: 16.7%
Turbin: 15.8%
Baldwin: 14.9%
Lynch 11%
Kearse: 10.4%
Richardson: 5.6%
Harvin: 3.9%

If you make the cutoff 36 targets, the number of targets Richardson has:
Willson: 16.7%
Baldwin: 14.9%
Lynch 11%
Kearse: 10.4%
Richardson: 5.6%

We're a team that has players making big time plays. Richardson isn't in that league just yet, but he's getting there. He still has a long ways to go.

I don't know if his 'ways to go' is as long as you think it is. A month ago, I would have agreed with you. But this last month has been a night and day difference. Him not playing behind Percy and everybody getting used to the mid season offense change probably factored in some. But yeah, he is really starting to showcase what he's got, and him 'breaking out' seems right around the corner.

 

[dumbrabbit]

I still have a love for Michael. Pair him with Richardson, along with Wilson, that's a lot of speed on the field right there.

 

[hawkfan68]

...
I like Richardson and am happy he's gaining chemistry with Wilson, but he's not one of our big play receivers.

Big Plays vs targets per player (minimum 15 targets):

Helfert: 20.8%
Lockette: 20%
Willson: 16.7%
Turbin: 15.8%
Baldwin: 14.9%
Lynch 11%
Kearse: 10.4%
Richardson: 5.6%
Harvin: 3.9%

If you make the cutoff 36 targets, the number of targets Richardson has:
Willson: 16.7%
Baldwin: 14.9%
Lynch 11%
Kearse: 10.4%
Richardson: 5.6%

We're a team that has players making big time plays. Richardson isn't in that league just yet, but he's getting there. He still has a long ways to go.

Nice stats! One fascinating thing these show is the importance of the receiving TE in the Seahawks offense in big plays, in the relative absence of "big play WR's". With the 15 targets rule, 2 of the top 3 are TE's!

It would be interesting to see these numbers from last year (and 2012 too), factoring in Golden Tate, and (when healthy) Sidney Rice. Got those numbers anywhere?

This year, it's been stunning to see the plays that TE Cooper Helfet (who??!!) has had (including a nice game-winning TD play) in the passing game, plus TE Luke Wilson having a career-in-one-game against the Cardinals. Add in the performance of Zach Miller in the 2012 playoffs, especially against Atlanta, and Russell clearly loves having receiving TE targets in the passing game.

The flipside is that we need massive help in the WR area to have big-play threats. These numbers show that PRich has a ways to go to have much impact there. In fact, the 36 targets, 2 of the top 3 "big play" threats are non-WR positions, with Lynch sneaking in. This sure points out the need for improving the "threat" of the WR position, through a combination of draft, trade, FA, and further developing current players. (and continuing to improve OL pass protection and Russell's confidence in it for hanging in and making deep throws)

I'd have to think Pete is aware of the issues these numbers point out, and has high hopes, for the PRich part, to improve PRich's big play numbers going forward, as he develops and gains chemistry with Russell. I think the downfield big-play and defense-stretching potential is why PC/JS explicitly chose Richardson over Jordan Mathews (now with Eagles), one of the few receivers taken after PRich who's had an impact as a rookie. That, and feeling like Norwood could be the Jordan Matthews type of receiver for us, at a lower cost. In the meantime, in Pete-speak, PRich has shown us really, really good stuff with his short and intermediate route running and overall WR savvy.

To the point of the thread, Baldwin is still clearly the best WR on the team, and it's not that close--YET. The fact that Baldwin gets in as many big plays as he does is a huge credit to him and his chemistry with Russell. Baldwin's just going to keep doing what he does; If PRich continues to develop and cause more challenges for defenses, it only helps Baldwin's game too.

Good post. Interesting stats....However if you look at the picture as whole, they can be a bit misleading. This is shown as a percentage of big plays vs. targets. Of course guys like Lockette, Helfet, etc are going to be on the top. They have less targets. Prime example is this last game against the Cards - Willson had 3 targets total. Baldwin caught more passes than Willson had targets. If you were to count big plays (total) - Baldwin and Kearse would be the top two. They also get more targets so their percentage becomes lower since every play they make is not considered a big play. These stats don't give an accurate picture in that sense.

2014 Seahawks stats - http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/sea/seattle-seahawks

 

[endzorn]

I feel like a normal rookie going through the rookie learning curve has to be taught the precision of a timing offense, how to read NFL defenses, leverage, get off, etc.. Then you come to Seattle and it's like two different offenses, the one Bevell draws up and the one Wilson improvises. That's why the kid impresses me, he's adapting to something completely foreign to what Colorado did on so many levels and he's starting to make impact plays.

 

[AgentDib]

Agree that quantity is the way to go rather than ratio when counting big plays. We lean on Baldwin for a lot and I've seen him run pretty much every type of route from short stuff out of the slot to post routes when lined up at split end. Baldwin isn't going to turn a 5 yard pass into 50 but he catches a lot more stuff down field than most here think. In a way, the TE ranking so high on that list has accompanying drawbacks; it would be nice to have them showing up more as big reliable targets in thid and short/third and goal situations.

 

[pehawk]

I feel like a normal rookie going through the rookie learning curve has to be taught the precision of a timing offense, how to read NFL defenses, leverage, get off, etc.. Then you come to Seattle and it's like two different offenses, the one Bevell draws up and the one Wilson improvises. That's why the kid impresses me, he's adapting to something completely foreign to what Colorado did on so many levels and he's starting to make impact plays.

That's a good damn point. Coming to Seattle to play WR is a unique animal, huh?

 

[Scottemojo]

I feel like a normal rookie going through the rookie learning curve has to be taught the precision of a timing offense, how to read NFL defenses, leverage, get off, etc.. Then you come to Seattle and it's like two different offenses, the one Bevell draws up and the one Wilson improvises. That's why the kid impresses me, he's adapting to something completely foreign to what Colorado did on so many levels and he's starting to make impact plays.

That's a good damn point. Coming to Seattle to play WR is a unique animal, huh?

Same reason you wanted Wallace. He can sandlot, he had to with Ben.

 

[pehawk]

Wallace is such a bad fit for that Fins offense. He's a random and scramble drill guy at his core.

 

[Hawks46]

I feel like a normal rookie going through the rookie learning curve has to be taught the precision of a timing offense, how to read NFL defenses, leverage, get off, etc.. Then you come to Seattle and it's like two different offenses, the one Bevell draws up and the one Wilson improvises. That's why the kid impresses me, he's adapting to something completely foreign to what Colorado did on so many levels and he's starting to make impact plays.

Totally agree. You said what I was thinking, and probably used a lot less words to do it. I mentioned in a different thread that Richardson's QB in college wasn't a scrambler. Also, what we're seeing for Richarson is the "normal rookie learning curve" at what would be game 5 or 6 of the year. I wonder how many games he was inactive while Harvin was on the roster ?

Sonic, I get what you are saying: Richardson doesn't deserve all this fawning over since he has merely 212 yards, and you aren't discounting his potential. I do disagree with you on your Tate point: Tate was known as a great playmaker with elite YAC skills out of college, but he was also acknowledged as a raw route runner. Richardson is miles ahead of Tate at this point inTate's rookie year. Tate was also inactive off an on a lot his first year or so. He couldn't even get on the field.

Comparing the two isn't going to work as they're vastly different players. Tate has elite acceleration and agility, but he doesn't have elite top end speed. Richardson has both, but he's not going to break the tackles Tate did, and he doesn't have Tate's wiggle. Tate was great at jump balls, and from the tape I watched of Richardson in college (granted it's only highlites but still), PRich never needed to do that; he got great separation from collegiate DB's.

 

[SonicHawk]

I feel like a normal rookie going through the rookie learning curve has to be taught the precision of a timing offense, how to read NFL defenses, leverage, get off, etc.. Then you come to Seattle and it's like two different offenses, the one Bevell draws up and the one Wilson improvises. That's why the kid impresses me, he's adapting to something completely foreign to what Colorado did on so many levels and he's starting to make impact plays.

That's a good damn point. Coming to Seattle to play WR is a unique animal, huh?

What I liked most about the Cardinals game was they didn't let Russ be forced out of the pocket as much. Quick passes always help with calming the rush that he usually sees. Russ had more quick reads, get the ball out and get somebody in space.

It didn't account for a lot of yards, but once the AZ pass rush had been beaten it gave more opportunities for a more open playbook.

I give a ton of props to Bevell finally figuring this out.

But, in addition to better pass-play calling to be a Hawks WR you have to never give up on a play and you need to come back towards Russ and find a lane for him to throw and Richardson has done that several times. It's good to see him help DB out with those 3rd down and scramble plays -- plays that Golden Tate made last year.

 

[DavidSeven]

I re-watched the game yesterday, and the catch he makes coming back to Wilson on the scramble drill is incredible. In fact, this is the play that infamously left Arians's mouth agape. The dude is running full speed back to Wilson and catches a bullet pass that beelines above his head. His own momentum should've made that catch impossible.

 

[253hawk]

Coming back to a ball like that is the toughest catch to make, IMO. Especially when it's a short rocket like Russ fired at him and THE BEST DB EVAR PP21 is covering. He caught it right in front of Kam and Pete, who were both praising him immediately.

http://gfycat.com/AcidicGlassIcelandicsheepdog

 

[Timmahawk]

If Richardson wasn't a part of statistically the best WR class in the history of the NFL (rookie stats), we wouldn't even be having a debate about him. It's unfortunate for him that OBjr, Evans, Watkins, Benjamin, Cooks, etc have all had great years.

I'm glad someone else brought up Tate's stats, they are nearly identical to PRich. It usually takes Rook WRs time to adjust and we are now seeing him make more and more plays. This is all after he started the year not getting 1st team reps until Harvin was dealt.

I'm excited about PRich and think he will have a breakout game soon.

 

[Hawks46]

Watch him chase down Wilson on the 55 yard run...

I was going to point out this exact same moment, he's fast when he gets going. I'm noticing that they are really easing Richardson in with some play callings. They might not unleash his speed yet until the playoffs. Get him working on the shorter to medium routes and then get him into more of the middle of the field to be able to take some hits and then get him some plays for the longer routes. Maybe using the same approach as they did with Wilson's rookie year to get him to acclimate into their system. Once he gets it, they will give him more advance routes. He is progressing faster than Tate at this point in his career.

Nice point. I've had the same thought a time or two: maybe the coaching staff is rope a doping the NFL, giving teams a steady diet of Richardson underneath, in come backs, slants and out routes. When he first got on the field earlier in the year, he'd done literally nothing, but you could still see defenders giving him a cushion and respecting his speed. Teams know how fast PRich is. They know we like to throw deep. After watching him for half a season not run a lot of deep passes, it would be devastating to run a double move on a guy, have him bite and have Richardson wide open. All he needs is a couple of steps and no one catches him. In the playoffs, all you sometimes need is one big play, and every big play is magnified.

As for that Wilson gif.... the primary thing I saw when I first watched it, was "got dang, Wilson looks freaking explosive". He really blows through that hole and just blows by those LBers.

 

[Hawkpower]

Sonic I can see where you're coming from but the same thing could be said about Tate and he was actually worse to me his first couple of years. You said his speed is the only thing that looks good and that he isn't a great route runner. I completely disagree. He has struggled on long vertical routes but they have also been very limited in volume. He is going to have to learn how to maintain position and not be muscled out of routes. His short and intermediate route running has been fantastic, as good as any rookie in the league IMO. This was a complete shock to me. The vertical stuff should come, the fact that his shorter route running ability is so good makes his ceiling extremely high. He has a chance to be a very good receiver. Probably never a 100 catch guy but within this offense he could be very good we just need to have a little patience with him.

Tate was very much a question mark after his first 2 years, in fact his numbers look similar. Tate had a higher ceiling coming into the league though.

I don't agree that his short routes have been fantastic, he has never been a short route runner and he hasn't excelled. He's done a very good job at keeping himself available when the route breaks down and Wilson is pushed out of the pocket. He's hustled to come back to the ball and made a few solid catches.

As far as blocking, I'm glad he's willing to get in there.

Like I said before, I haven't just thrown Richardson to the side and said he's done, I just don't think he's more than just a guy. Happy to be proven wrong, MORE than happy to be proven wrong.

Tate had a higher ceiling coming in?? Based on what???

 

[hawknation2014]

Sonic I can see where you're coming from but the same thing could be said about Tate and he was actually worse to me his first couple of years. You said his speed is the only thing that looks good and that he isn't a great route runner. I completely disagree. He has struggled on long vertical routes but they have also been very limited in volume. He is going to have to learn how to maintain position and not be muscled out of routes. His short and intermediate route running has been fantastic, as good as any rookie in the league IMO. This was a complete shock to me. The vertical stuff should come, the fact that his shorter route running ability is so good makes his ceiling extremely high. He has a chance to be a very good receiver. Probably never a 100 catch guy but within this offense he could be very good we just need to have a little patience with him.

Tate was very much a question mark after his first 2 years, in fact his numbers look similar. Tate had a higher ceiling coming into the league though.

I don't agree that his short routes have been fantastic, he has never been a short route runner and he hasn't excelled. He's done a very good job at keeping himself available when the route breaks down and Wilson is pushed out of the pocket. He's hustled to come back to the ball and made a few solid catches.

As far as blocking, I'm glad he's willing to get in there.

Like I said before, I haven't just thrown Richardson to the side and said he's done, I just don't think he's more than just a guy. Happy to be proven wrong, MORE than happy to be proven wrong.

Tate had a higher ceiling coming in?? Based on what???

Tackle-breaking ability.

 

[SonicHawk]

Sonic I can see where you're coming from but the same thing could be said about Tate and he was actually worse to me his first couple of years. You said his speed is the only thing that looks good and that he isn't a great route runner. I completely disagree. He has struggled on long vertical routes but they have also been very limited in volume. He is going to have to learn how to maintain position and not be muscled out of routes. His short and intermediate route running has been fantastic, as good as any rookie in the league IMO. This was a complete shock to me. The vertical stuff should come, the fact that his shorter route running ability is so good makes his ceiling extremely high. He has a chance to be a very good receiver. Probably never a 100 catch guy but within this offense he could be very good we just need to have a little patience with him.

Tate was very much a question mark after his first 2 years, in fact his numbers look similar. Tate had a higher ceiling coming into the league though.

I don't agree that his short routes have been fantastic, he has never been a short route runner and he hasn't excelled. He's done a very good job at keeping himself available when the route breaks down and Wilson is pushed out of the pocket. He's hustled to come back to the ball and made a few solid catches.

As far as blocking, I'm glad he's willing to get in there.

Like I said before, I haven't just thrown Richardson to the side and said he's done, I just don't think he's more than just a guy. Happy to be proven wrong, MORE than happy to be proven wrong.

Tate had a higher ceiling coming in?? Based on what???

Tate was a steal in the late 2nd round. NFL route-runner from day one, always got separation without elite speed or quickness, undeniable hands, put up stats at ND.

Richardson was/is a raw talent with elite speed. He was a significant stretch in the 2nd, probably could have gotten him in the 3rd.

But I'm ok with all this as long as he shows up everyday and hustles he'll make a difference on a great team.

 

[Hawkpower]

Sonic I can see where you're coming from but the same thing could be said about Tate and he was actually worse to me his first couple of years. You said his speed is the only thing that looks good and that he isn't a great route runner. I completely disagree. He has struggled on long vertical routes but they have also been very limited in volume. He is going to have to learn how to maintain position and not be muscled out of routes. His short and intermediate route running has been fantastic, as good as any rookie in the league IMO. This was a complete shock to me. The vertical stuff should come, the fact that his shorter route running ability is so good makes his ceiling extremely high. He has a chance to be a very good receiver. Probably never a 100 catch guy but within this offense he could be very good we just need to have a little patience with him.

Tate was very much a question mark after his first 2 years, in fact his numbers look similar. Tate had a higher ceiling coming into the league though.

I don't agree that his short routes have been fantastic, he has never been a short route runner and he hasn't excelled. He's done a very good job at keeping himself available when the route breaks down and Wilson is pushed out of the pocket. He's hustled to come back to the ball and made a few solid catches.

As far as blocking, I'm glad he's willing to get in there.

Like I said before, I haven't just thrown Richardson to the side and said he's done, I just don't think he's more than just a guy. Happy to be proven wrong, MORE than happy to be proven wrong.

Tate had a higher ceiling coming in?? Based on what???

Tate was a steal in the late 2nd round. NFL route-runner from day one, always got separation without elite speed or quickness, undeniable hands, put up stats at ND.

Richardson was/is a raw talent with elite speed. He was a significant stretch in the 2nd, probably could have gotten him in the 3rd.

But I'm ok with all this as long as he shows up everyday and hustles he'll make a difference on a great team.

ahhhh more heel digging I can certainly see why you want to separate Richardson from Tate in this debate. Siiiink goes your argument. By the way, why was this "elite" NFL route runner with undeniable separation so unproductive in his first two years? Nearly cut by year two??? Your answer to that will be so illuminating

Basically, Richardson has great hands, and has elite speed. Both he and Tate put up "stats" in college

Tate may be better at route running (debatable) has equal hands and less speed but has a WAY higher ceiling??

L-O-L. Those heels are a diggin!!!