Normally, I would have started this weeks sooner and with pretty graphs, but honestly my heart wasn't in it. However, now that it's down to week 17, the NFC picture is fairly clear (even through the Seahawk egg) and believe it or now Seattle is not in a horrible position although not in the catbird seat that Dallas and now Atlanta now enjoy.
There are eight NFC teams still fighting for 6 playoff spots in the NFC with week 17 left to play. Detroit losing on Monday night was the first *good* thing that happened for Seattle in week 16. Please note the following symbols:
*==clinched homefield
z==clinched first week bye
y==clinched division
x==clinched playoff spot (sometimes I'll use a x-5 to indicate clinched highest wildcard spot)
The teams in question in order of current seed are:
1, Dallas-*: 13-2, They play the eliminated eagles. Their game is totally irrelevant.
2. Atlanta-y: 10-5, They play New Orleans at home (a division game). The game time has been moved to the late slot. Atlanta has to WIN this game outright to assure the first week bye.
3. Seattle-y: 9-5-1, We play San Fran on the road. Seattle clinches the #3 seed (by virtue of the tie) with a win with a #2 still possible with help (see below). A loss would resign Seattle to the #4 seed automatically (see below).
4. Green Bay: 9-6, plays Detroit at Detroit. Is currently in 4th seed because of head to head tiebreak earlier this season.
5. New York Giants-x(5): 10-5, plays Washington at Washington. New York is locked into the top wildcard spot no matter what.
6. Detroit: 9-6: How the mighty have fallen! Just a couple of weeks ago they were in the #2 seed, but now will likely be playing for their playoff lives (see below). They play Green Bay at home for a winner-take-all NFCN divisional title game.
7. Washington: 8-6-1, Washington is the first team out of the playoffs as things stand now, but because Green Bay and Detroit play each other control their own destiny for the last wildcard spot. They play the NY Giants at home.
8. Tampa Bay: 8-7, Tampa is only alive on the most esoteric and unlikely mathematic combinations that allow them to win a SoV tiebreaker against Green Bay (see below). Tampa plays Carolina at home. Currently Tampa is the second spot out of the playoffs (eighth seed)
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Here are the following scenarios and important games starting from the highest seed and moving down:
Dallas: Dallas has clinched home field. Week 17 game is meaningless. Dallas has no scenarios.
Atlanta: Atlanta currently holds the #2 seed and first week bye but ONLY by the narrowest of margins (a half game over Seattle who has the tiebreak on them).
Scenario 1: Atlanta wins. In that case Atlanta will clinch the #2 seed and first week bye.
Scenario 2: Atlanta ties, In that case Atlanta would clinch the #3 seed. In order for Atlanta to get the #2 seed in this case would be for Seattle to lose or tie. Otherwise Seattle would take the #2 seed by virtue of head to head
Scenario 3: Atlanta loses. If Atlanta loses, things become very fluid in the NFC and the only way Atlanta can retain the #2 seed in that case would be for BOTH Detroit and Seattle to lose. If Seattle wins and Detroit wins, then Atlanta loses the tiebreak with Detroit and falls all the way to the #4 seed. If Seattle wins and Green Bay wins, then Atlanta beats Green Bay in the tiebreak and takes the #3 slot.
Seattle Seattle currently holds the #3 seed by a half game over Green Bay (who they lose the tiebreak to) and below Atlanta (who they have the tiebreak on). It is worth noting that the NFCN champion WILL have 10 wins no matter what. This is important for Seattle that already has 9.5 (including the tie).
Scenario 1: Seattle wins. Let's be honest that this is the most overwhelmingly likely scenario despite what just happened. San Fran is a dumpster fire. A Seattle win clinches the #3 seed. Why? As I mentioned above, the most the NFCN champ will have is 10 wins and a Seattle win gives Seattle 10.5 (ties count as half a win). This result combined with an Atlanta loss or tie would give Seattle back the #2 seed and the first week bye.
Scenario 2: Seattle ties. I doubt this will happen, but if it does, it effectively would give Seattle a 10-6 record tying it with the NFCN Champion, and potentially Atlanta (if it loses). In the case of a three way tie, Atlanta wins it if the NFCN Champ is Green Bay giving it the #2 seed, GB the #3 seed, and Seattle the #4 seed, but if the NFCN Champ is Detroit, then Detroit wins the first three way tie break giving Detroit the #2 seed (one of the very few ways I can get Detroit to the #2 seed now), and Seattle the #3 seed. If Atlanta wins, then Seattle beats Detroit for the #3 seed, but (obviously) loses to Green Bay because of head to head.
Scenario 3: Seattle loses. If THIS happens (and I really, really don't think it will), I'll take at least a week vacation from here because the meltdown would turn this place radioactive. However, near as I can tell, it's very simple. If Seattle loses, they are automatically stuck with the #4 seed.
Green Bay Green Bay is currently on top of the NFCN by virtue of it's head to head win earlier this season over Detroit. The scenarios for Green Bay are pretty simple:
Scenario 1: Green Bay wins. This will give Green Bay a 10-6 record and the NFCN Crown and either the third or fourth seed (they lose to Atlanta on tie breaks and so can not reach the #2 seed). In fact Green Bay seems to lose all tiebreaks against all division champions except Seattle.
Scenario 2: Green Bay ties: This is just like Scenario one except with a 9-6-1 record and most likely the #4 seed (only gets the #3 seed if Seattle loses as well in this case). That's because Green Bay would beat Detroit on head to head.
Scenario 3: Green Bay loses: In this case Detroit takes the NFCN with a 10-6 record, and at 9-7 Green Bay needs help (and a lot of it) to make the playoffs at all. In particular Washington would have to lose and to be extra save Tampa would need to lose (or tie) as well.
New York Giants: The New York Giants are locked into the #5 seed no matter what. For playoff seeding, the game against Washington means nothing at all. However, it does have a big impact for other teams (see below).
Detroit: Detroit is currently barely hanging in there with the #6 seed losing the NFCN by virtue of losing the head to head with Green Bay. The problem is they have to play Green Bay and so will likely be playing not just for the NFCN title but their playoff lives.
Scenario 1: Detroit wins. In this case Detroit takes the NFC North, and can get as high as the #2 seed (if both Seattle and Atlanta lose), or be stuck as low as the #4 seed
Scenario 2: Detroit ties. In that case Detroit is the #6 seed (beating out Washington even if it were to win with the same record by virtue conference record and Tampa outright 9-6-1 vs 9-7). This result automatically eliminates both Washington and Tampa
Scenario 3: Detroit loses. In this case Detroit falls to 9-7 and is probably out. Although a 9-7 Detroit does win the tiebreak on a 9-7 Tampa team (which means Tampa is eliminated on anything other than a Green Bay loss), it desperately needs Washington to lose or tie (if that happens, Detroit backs in as the #6 seed).
Washington Washington at 8-6-1 is just barely on the outside and looking in, and frankly since both Green Bay and Detroit play each other (with the loser being 9-7), Washington is very much in control of it's own playoff destiny (even though it's out currently). Better yet, the same game means nothing for the NY Giants playing them (see above).
Scenario 1: Washington wins. If Washington wins, then their 9-6-1 record is better than any 9-7 record and so they are in as the #6 seed unless Green Bay and Detroit tie (if that happens then Detroit gets the #6 seed and Washington is eliminated).
Scenario 2: Washington ties. This would in effect give Washington a 9-7 record. Washington would still beat a 9-7 Green Bay team (but NOT a 9-7 Detroit team so Green Bay would have to lose), but might not beat out a 9-7 Tampa because of SoV on a three way tie between Washington, Green Bay, and Tampa. (see below) To insure this is avoided, Tampa would have to lose or tie as well. If all this happens, then Washington gets the #6 seed. Otherwise Washington is eliminated.
Scenario 3: Washington loses. This would eliminate Washington. Period.
Tampa Bay A lot of people out there think with an 8-7 record, Tampa is already eliminated but that's not QUITE true. However, in order for them to have any shot at all, they have to win, and a TON of things have to break their way. Basically, Tampa has a technical chance to get into the playoffs. IMHO about the same chance of winning LOTTO.
Scenario one: Tampa doesn't win outright. In that case Tampa is eliminated.
Scenario two: Tampa wins. This increases Tampa's record to 9-7 potentially putting it into ties with other 9-7 teams. Unfortunately is LOSES all head to head tie breaks with other 9-7 teams (Detroit, Green Bay, Washington). However, there is the smallest chance that it can prevail on a three-way tiebreak between Green Bay (not Detroit) and Washington if it can beat Green Bay's Strength of Victory. The following would have to happen in addition to a Tampa win: 1) Washington TIES 2) Green Bay loses 3) Seattle, Dallas, Houston, and Jacksonville ALL have to lose (to get the strength of victory).
Good luck with that, Tampa.
*whew*
So Seahawk fans, I think it's pretty simple: In addition to rooting for a rousing (and much needed) win over the Niners this Sunday, we also want to be rooting for New Orleans to beat Atlanta (it's possible I think...the Saints have played good ball of late), and I think we want to see Detroit beat Green Bay as well since Green Bay is more likely to not make the dance at all unless they win the NFCN outright (and I don't want to see them in the post-season to be honest with you).
Enjoy!
There are eight NFC teams still fighting for 6 playoff spots in the NFC with week 17 left to play. Detroit losing on Monday night was the first *good* thing that happened for Seattle in week 16. Please note the following symbols:
*==clinched homefield
z==clinched first week bye
y==clinched division
x==clinched playoff spot (sometimes I'll use a x-5 to indicate clinched highest wildcard spot)
The teams in question in order of current seed are:
1, Dallas-*: 13-2, They play the eliminated eagles. Their game is totally irrelevant.
2. Atlanta-y: 10-5, They play New Orleans at home (a division game). The game time has been moved to the late slot. Atlanta has to WIN this game outright to assure the first week bye.
3. Seattle-y: 9-5-1, We play San Fran on the road. Seattle clinches the #3 seed (by virtue of the tie) with a win with a #2 still possible with help (see below). A loss would resign Seattle to the #4 seed automatically (see below).
4. Green Bay: 9-6, plays Detroit at Detroit. Is currently in 4th seed because of head to head tiebreak earlier this season.
5. New York Giants-x(5): 10-5, plays Washington at Washington. New York is locked into the top wildcard spot no matter what.
6. Detroit: 9-6: How the mighty have fallen! Just a couple of weeks ago they were in the #2 seed, but now will likely be playing for their playoff lives (see below). They play Green Bay at home for a winner-take-all NFCN divisional title game.
7. Washington: 8-6-1, Washington is the first team out of the playoffs as things stand now, but because Green Bay and Detroit play each other control their own destiny for the last wildcard spot. They play the NY Giants at home.
8. Tampa Bay: 8-7, Tampa is only alive on the most esoteric and unlikely mathematic combinations that allow them to win a SoV tiebreaker against Green Bay (see below). Tampa plays Carolina at home. Currently Tampa is the second spot out of the playoffs (eighth seed)
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Here are the following scenarios and important games starting from the highest seed and moving down:
Dallas: Dallas has clinched home field. Week 17 game is meaningless. Dallas has no scenarios.
Atlanta: Atlanta currently holds the #2 seed and first week bye but ONLY by the narrowest of margins (a half game over Seattle who has the tiebreak on them).
Scenario 1: Atlanta wins. In that case Atlanta will clinch the #2 seed and first week bye.
Scenario 2: Atlanta ties, In that case Atlanta would clinch the #3 seed. In order for Atlanta to get the #2 seed in this case would be for Seattle to lose or tie. Otherwise Seattle would take the #2 seed by virtue of head to head
Scenario 3: Atlanta loses. If Atlanta loses, things become very fluid in the NFC and the only way Atlanta can retain the #2 seed in that case would be for BOTH Detroit and Seattle to lose. If Seattle wins and Detroit wins, then Atlanta loses the tiebreak with Detroit and falls all the way to the #4 seed. If Seattle wins and Green Bay wins, then Atlanta beats Green Bay in the tiebreak and takes the #3 slot.
Seattle Seattle currently holds the #3 seed by a half game over Green Bay (who they lose the tiebreak to) and below Atlanta (who they have the tiebreak on). It is worth noting that the NFCN champion WILL have 10 wins no matter what. This is important for Seattle that already has 9.5 (including the tie).
Scenario 1: Seattle wins. Let's be honest that this is the most overwhelmingly likely scenario despite what just happened. San Fran is a dumpster fire. A Seattle win clinches the #3 seed. Why? As I mentioned above, the most the NFCN champ will have is 10 wins and a Seattle win gives Seattle 10.5 (ties count as half a win). This result combined with an Atlanta loss or tie would give Seattle back the #2 seed and the first week bye.
Scenario 2: Seattle ties. I doubt this will happen, but if it does, it effectively would give Seattle a 10-6 record tying it with the NFCN Champion, and potentially Atlanta (if it loses). In the case of a three way tie, Atlanta wins it if the NFCN Champ is Green Bay giving it the #2 seed, GB the #3 seed, and Seattle the #4 seed, but if the NFCN Champ is Detroit, then Detroit wins the first three way tie break giving Detroit the #2 seed (one of the very few ways I can get Detroit to the #2 seed now), and Seattle the #3 seed. If Atlanta wins, then Seattle beats Detroit for the #3 seed, but (obviously) loses to Green Bay because of head to head.
Scenario 3: Seattle loses. If THIS happens (and I really, really don't think it will), I'll take at least a week vacation from here because the meltdown would turn this place radioactive. However, near as I can tell, it's very simple. If Seattle loses, they are automatically stuck with the #4 seed.
Green Bay Green Bay is currently on top of the NFCN by virtue of it's head to head win earlier this season over Detroit. The scenarios for Green Bay are pretty simple:
Scenario 1: Green Bay wins. This will give Green Bay a 10-6 record and the NFCN Crown and either the third or fourth seed (they lose to Atlanta on tie breaks and so can not reach the #2 seed). In fact Green Bay seems to lose all tiebreaks against all division champions except Seattle.
Scenario 2: Green Bay ties: This is just like Scenario one except with a 9-6-1 record and most likely the #4 seed (only gets the #3 seed if Seattle loses as well in this case). That's because Green Bay would beat Detroit on head to head.
Scenario 3: Green Bay loses: In this case Detroit takes the NFCN with a 10-6 record, and at 9-7 Green Bay needs help (and a lot of it) to make the playoffs at all. In particular Washington would have to lose and to be extra save Tampa would need to lose (or tie) as well.
New York Giants: The New York Giants are locked into the #5 seed no matter what. For playoff seeding, the game against Washington means nothing at all. However, it does have a big impact for other teams (see below).
Detroit: Detroit is currently barely hanging in there with the #6 seed losing the NFCN by virtue of losing the head to head with Green Bay. The problem is they have to play Green Bay and so will likely be playing not just for the NFCN title but their playoff lives.
Scenario 1: Detroit wins. In this case Detroit takes the NFC North, and can get as high as the #2 seed (if both Seattle and Atlanta lose), or be stuck as low as the #4 seed
Scenario 2: Detroit ties. In that case Detroit is the #6 seed (beating out Washington even if it were to win with the same record by virtue conference record and Tampa outright 9-6-1 vs 9-7). This result automatically eliminates both Washington and Tampa
Scenario 3: Detroit loses. In this case Detroit falls to 9-7 and is probably out. Although a 9-7 Detroit does win the tiebreak on a 9-7 Tampa team (which means Tampa is eliminated on anything other than a Green Bay loss), it desperately needs Washington to lose or tie (if that happens, Detroit backs in as the #6 seed).
Washington Washington at 8-6-1 is just barely on the outside and looking in, and frankly since both Green Bay and Detroit play each other (with the loser being 9-7), Washington is very much in control of it's own playoff destiny (even though it's out currently). Better yet, the same game means nothing for the NY Giants playing them (see above).
Scenario 1: Washington wins. If Washington wins, then their 9-6-1 record is better than any 9-7 record and so they are in as the #6 seed unless Green Bay and Detroit tie (if that happens then Detroit gets the #6 seed and Washington is eliminated).
Scenario 2: Washington ties. This would in effect give Washington a 9-7 record. Washington would still beat a 9-7 Green Bay team (but NOT a 9-7 Detroit team so Green Bay would have to lose), but might not beat out a 9-7 Tampa because of SoV on a three way tie between Washington, Green Bay, and Tampa. (see below) To insure this is avoided, Tampa would have to lose or tie as well. If all this happens, then Washington gets the #6 seed. Otherwise Washington is eliminated.
Scenario 3: Washington loses. This would eliminate Washington. Period.
Tampa Bay A lot of people out there think with an 8-7 record, Tampa is already eliminated but that's not QUITE true. However, in order for them to have any shot at all, they have to win, and a TON of things have to break their way. Basically, Tampa has a technical chance to get into the playoffs. IMHO about the same chance of winning LOTTO.
Scenario one: Tampa doesn't win outright. In that case Tampa is eliminated.
Scenario two: Tampa wins. This increases Tampa's record to 9-7 potentially putting it into ties with other 9-7 teams. Unfortunately is LOSES all head to head tie breaks with other 9-7 teams (Detroit, Green Bay, Washington). However, there is the smallest chance that it can prevail on a three-way tiebreak between Green Bay (not Detroit) and Washington if it can beat Green Bay's Strength of Victory. The following would have to happen in addition to a Tampa win: 1) Washington TIES 2) Green Bay loses 3) Seattle, Dallas, Houston, and Jacksonville ALL have to lose (to get the strength of victory).
Good luck with that, Tampa.
*whew*
So Seahawk fans, I think it's pretty simple: In addition to rooting for a rousing (and much needed) win over the Niners this Sunday, we also want to be rooting for New Orleans to beat Atlanta (it's possible I think...the Saints have played good ball of late), and I think we want to see Detroit beat Green Bay as well since Green Bay is more likely to not make the dance at all unless they win the NFCN outright (and I don't want to see them in the post-season to be honest with you).
Enjoy!
