Insane Stat Facts

[James in PA]

Sorry if this has been discussed already but this blew my mind…

Seahawks 2022:

Started the season 6-3, led NFC West

Seahawks 2023:

Started the season 6-3, led NFC West

Seahawks 2022:

Went 2-5 in next 7 games

Seahawks 2023:

Went 2-5 in next 7 games

Seahawks 2022:

Entered week 18 at 8-8 needing a win and a Packers loss

Seahawks 2023:

Entered week 18 at 8-8 needing a win and a Packers loss

I mean WHAT?!?! How is that even remotely possible?!?!?

"It's not how you start, it's how you finish!"

 

[cymatica]

Interesting fact. Last year, before the Tampa game that started the skid, I flew 4020 miles from Baltimore to Germany to watch the game in in person in munich.

This year, before the game that started our skid, I flew 4020 miles from Germany to Baltimore to watch the game in person vs the Ravens.

No games for me next year. 8040 miles, 12 time zones, 8 flights, to watch uninspired play which twice kickstarted a seasons deathspiral.

So this is all your fault

 

[GemCity]

It wouldn't say it's been discussed but several posters have referenced the season being like déjà vu of 2022. From an analytics background it doesn't feel freaky at all. 6-3 is a fairly common record. 2-5 is a fairly common record. Based on coin flips the, (binomial calculator), probability of 6-3 is .164. The probability of 2-5 is also .164. The probability of going 6-3 then 2-5 to reach 8-8 is 2.89% (36.18 to 1) and there are 32 teams in the league. From a league-wide perspective it's pretty common. If you only look at it from a 1 team perspective it's going to feel a bit weird. Mostly the teams you're battling with at mid-tier level are likely to be the teams you're going to be battling with next year. Yeah - déjà vu. Overall it feels like being stuck in time and that's has contributed to increased frustration from this fan base.

Sorry to burst the bubble.

I didn’t do the math. I’m a data scientist and sense you have at least some background in statistics.

But you left out a key variable. The probability of the Seahawks needing Green Bay, not some other team, to lose decreases the probability of this event occurring… by a lot.

 

[xray]

Yogi Berra : " It's Deja Vu All Over Again "

 

[flv2]

I didn’t do the math. I’m a data scientist and sense you have at least some background in statistics.

But you left out a key variable. The probability of the Seahawks needing Green Bay, not some other team, to lose decreases the probability of this event occurring… by a lot.

Not disagreeing at all. I just looked at the probability of going 6-3 and then 2-5. I didn't make alterations for 2-5 being more unlikely after a 6-3 start. My guesstimate was 1 in 10 of 1 in 10 so I wasn't shocked by 2.89%. I can't model the chance of it being Green Bay or Seattle for the last spot. For the Packers it's maybe between 1 in 5 and 1 in 8??? It was going to be someone and there were lots of less likely candidates. It's surprising, but not massively surprising. There are sites with free binomial calculators for anyone who wants to look at the math.

 

[keasley45]

So this is all your fault

basically

 

[morgulon1]

Now THAT is funny.

Those 'script writing commercials' - the 'you can't make this stuff up' with DK - always make me cringe.

Were they on strike?

 

[cymatica]

I feel I need to slap babies here. What in the hell is going on? Y’all are talking casually while I’m trying to impress upon you how FREAKY these stats are!!

Does nobody but me think this is nuts?

What are you talking about? I was just adding another observation in line with the op.