Hawknballs
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DISCLAIMER:
I'm not an expert nor do I claim to be one. I'm also not posting this to really debate it. the "Cheat Sheet" isn't who I necessarily WANT to win, or THINK will win. It's simply my analysis of which outcomes work out the best for the hawks. It is about 85% based on logic/math and about 15% gut feeling and emotion. This also may at times include some contract information. I am BY NO MEANS an expert on NFL contracts. I have a rudimentary understanding. I think my assumptions are correct but I wouldn't quote me in a debate.
The Colts played well enough to win this game, and we couldn’t make the critical drives or stops when we needed too. Add in some obvious bad calls by the refs that mostly went against us and it was all around a disappointment in the end. Our offense looked like it was finding some rhythm finally. Our O-line wasn’t spectacular (on the final 4th down play of the game Paul Mcquistan basically looks like a child as someone blows right past him and forces Wilson out of the pocket to the opposite side of the field from where the play is going and pretty much is the main reason that play is a total failure but more about that later.) But they weren’t terrible either and actually looked pretty good in the running game.
I liked seeing our receivers finally make some plays. Well. Most of them. The Seahawks cut Stephen Williams over the weekend, so we are down to four guys – Rice, Tate, Baldwin, and Kearse – on the active roster. This move makes me even more confident that Harvin must be on schedule for a week seven or eight return. I realize that’s been the idea for a while now, but this is the first concrete roster evidence you can point to as an indicator that the team feels like a return very soon is likely. I’m optimistic about week eight; week seven is a short week before we go on the road again to pay Arizona on a Thursday night so I’m not sure if they would be ready to throw him in there that soon. Baldwin and Tate both hauled in five catches each, and Kearse made a nice TD grab.
Sidney Rice however continues to be inconsistent, and honestly, disappointing. While he is capable of making some clutch grabs, he just doesn’t feel to me like he’s trying very hard. 10 catches for 146 yards through five games is just not the kind of production acceptable for your number one receiver. He has two touchdowns, one of which was a beautiful snag in double coverage – but those were against the Jaguars who might have a hard time competing in the Pac-12 let alone the SEC. There didn’t look like there was any fight him during that 4th-down toss from Wilson. He stood there, even though he couldn’t have missed the defender going after the ball. He’s got to step up and do something in that moment, with the game in the balance. I can’t lay the whole loss on him but it was a disappointing display.
I didn’t like seeing our defense get lit up, but I also can’t deny that Luck is about as accurate as they come with most of his throws, and so many of those went to Wayne in good coverage and he just made plays. The blown coverage on the long TD was bad. I did like seeing us get pressure. It’s hard for me to look too closely at the defense at this point because it’s been a pretty rough five-game stretch to start the season and we are 4-1; the loss is disappointing but we are arguably through the toughest part of the schedule. No other game on our schedule looks nearly as difficult as going on the road for the second week in a row down five of our starting offensive players for a 10 AM start against an unfamiliar opponent, and still being in the game at the very end despite some horrible calls. I believe we are a better team than anyone else on our remaining schedule save possibly the Saints; luckily we get them at home.
Fun Fact of the week: (Stolen mercilessly from oldhawkfan and his post here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=75962 , this nugget of information was just way too good to pass up)
The Seahawks 2011 Calendar (some of these names are surprising since many of these players weren’t even on the 2011 roster, but the calendar was made less than halfway through the 2010 season)
Jan: Aaron Curry
Feb: David Hawthorne
March: Chris Spencer
April: John Carlson
May: Jordan Babineaux
June: Julius Jones
July: Justin Forsett
Aug: Lofa Tatupu
Sept: Marcus Trufant
Oct. Sean Locklear
Nov. TJ Houshmanznotevenworthspellingthatshitright
Dec. Matt Hasselbeck
Overtime:
The Rice/Miller Contracts – info from http://www.spotrac.com
It’s obvious we need to clear cap space and the two most obvious heavy contracts we have are from players who make great plays but are generally inconsistent: Sidney Rice, and Zach Miller.
Sidney Rice signed a 5 year/41m contract in 2011 with a 6m signing bonus and 18.5m guaranteed.
Through the current season, he will have earned a total of 17.5m in salary, and his 6m signing bonus. So essentially, his ‘guaranteed’ money has already been paid. If he were to be cut following the 2013 season, it would result in a dead money hit of 2.4m to the 2014 cap (signing bonuses are divided up over the course of the full contract and charged yearly – 6m divided by 5 years = 1.2m per year)
If Rice is on the team next season, he’s due a salary of 9.7m. In 2015 that number jumps to 10.2m. Huge numbers for a receiver who has made some nice plays but is obviously inconsistent and not as productive as most receivers making that sort of money.
Zach Miller signed a 5 year/34m contract in 2011 with a 5m signing bonus and 17m guaranteed.
Through the current season, he will have earned a total of 14.8m in salary, and his 5m signing bonus. His guaranteed money has also been paid to the tune of 19.8m. His prorated bonus over the next two years is a dead money hit of 2m. (two years @ 1m per year).
Miller’s contract also contains provisions for a roster bonus – a bonus paid so long as he is still on the roster. This is the sort of bonus you hear about when we get towards March 1st and you hear chatter about teams likely releasing players at that point; if the player is on the Roster on March 1st, he is automatically due the roster bonus in his contract. However if he is released, the team is no longer responsible for that bonus,a nd it doesn’t count against the cap.
If Miller is on the team in 2014, he counts as a 7m cap hit; in 2015 – 6m.
Conclusion:
I expect both players to be released if they aren’t willing to renegotiate. The writing for them was on the wall when we signed Percy Harvin to the richest contract in the history of the franchise, while knowing we will eventually need to pay guys like Wilson, Thomas, and Sherman. We’re going to want to give deals to the guys we can next season and front-loading a couple of them to get those guaranteed dollars off the books ASAP. Look for Golden Tate to get paid, and Rice to test free agency. I would say Miller has a better chance of re-negotiating than Rice does, given the respective value of their positions on the open market.
Week 4 Results:
The Good:
• Broncos over Cowboys
• Jets over Falcons
I know long-time Seahawk fans hate to see the Broncos win; I personally wrote that off a while ago and would rather see Tony Romo choke away another game. Raise your hand if you picked the Jets over the Falcons in a weekly pick ‘em? Okay then. Now it also looks like Julio Jones will be lost for the season with a foot injury, killing two of my fantasy teams in the process.
The Neutral:
• Packers over Lions
• Eagles over Giants
The teams I was leaning towards winning won, but now that it’s happened I realize the opposite result coulda been good too. We play the Giants though so I still a stand by wanting them out of the picture and not desparately fighting for a wild card spot when we do.
The Not-So-Good:
• Saint over Bears
• Rams over Jaguars
• Cardinals over Panthers
• 49ers over Texans
It’s never good when you lose and all three of your division opponents win, as does the team you’re mostly competing with for the best record in the NFC.
Week 5 Cheat Sheet:
The Walter Jones Division (important games):
Giants @ Bears
Sending da Bears to .500 is worth a victory to the giants despite my wish to have them crushed by the time we have brunch in their house.
Lions @ Browns
A few short years ago we were using games like this to torture terror suspects.
Packers @ Ravens
Go Ravens! Make Rodgers cry and/or bleed, and go all this guy on Clay “Chunkysoup” Matthews.
Rams @ Texans
Don’t Shaub your pants this time, Houston.
Saints @ Patriots
This week, I embrace you “Tom Terrific”.
Cardinals @ 49ers
A win makes the Cardinals 4-2, but also drops the 49ers to .500.
The Ben Obomanu Division (games of moderate significance):
Eagles @ Buccaneers
Simple pick of a winless toothless team over an unpredictable, exhausted, caged animal with neither likely to top the food chain.
Redskins @ Cowboys
The Kelly Jennings Division (games that, like Jennings himself, don’t really matter.)
Panthers @ Vikings
This one could go either way as neither team is awesome. I will go with the team most likely to finish last in its division at this point in the season.
Jaguars @ Broncos
Inconsequential to us but I’m just tired of hearing about Captain Forehead and the Enumclaw Blind Dates. Sweep the leg, Johnny.
Titans @ Seahawks:
Seahawks:
Pass Offense: 25
Rush Offense: 2
Total Offense: 12
Scoring: 7
Pass Defense: 5
Rush Defense: 18
Total Defense: 6
Scoring: 2
Turnover Differential: +7
Titans:
Pass Offense: 26
Rush Offense: 13
Total Offense: 26
Scoring: 15
Pass Defense: 9
Rush Defense: 14
Total Defense: 9
Scoring: 10
Turnover Differential: +8
Vegas Opening Spread:
Seattle -13.5
Vegas is usually right or they wouldn’t be doing it. I see a pretty easy win for the Seahawks coming home against the Titans. Tennessee has been impressive this season with some good wins but Fitzpatrick isn’t as dynamic as locker was playing before he went down, and their offense wasn’t explosive to begin with. I see us shutting down the run and forcing two or three interceptions in this game ala the last time we faced Fitzpatrick last year in Buffalo (or..Toronto I guess).
Their defense is sound but I think we will have too many short fields to not capitalize. The idea of Clemons and Irvin both being healthy and coming home for their first game makes me want to add another score or two onto my prediction for us but I’ll try not to get too carried away. I think we will get plenty of sacks and turnovers and while we may be forced into some punts I think we just have too many opportunities to not win big. Our defense just came off two sub-par performances and I think the 12th man is going to re-energize them and get them going again.
There is simply too much about the team that says they are 100 times more pissed off about losing their first game than any of us are. They will turn that into a convincing win.
Final Score:
Titans 13
Seahawks 31
I'm not an expert nor do I claim to be one. I'm also not posting this to really debate it. the "Cheat Sheet" isn't who I necessarily WANT to win, or THINK will win. It's simply my analysis of which outcomes work out the best for the hawks. It is about 85% based on logic/math and about 15% gut feeling and emotion. This also may at times include some contract information. I am BY NO MEANS an expert on NFL contracts. I have a rudimentary understanding. I think my assumptions are correct but I wouldn't quote me in a debate.
The Colts played well enough to win this game, and we couldn’t make the critical drives or stops when we needed too. Add in some obvious bad calls by the refs that mostly went against us and it was all around a disappointment in the end. Our offense looked like it was finding some rhythm finally. Our O-line wasn’t spectacular (on the final 4th down play of the game Paul Mcquistan basically looks like a child as someone blows right past him and forces Wilson out of the pocket to the opposite side of the field from where the play is going and pretty much is the main reason that play is a total failure but more about that later.) But they weren’t terrible either and actually looked pretty good in the running game.
I liked seeing our receivers finally make some plays. Well. Most of them. The Seahawks cut Stephen Williams over the weekend, so we are down to four guys – Rice, Tate, Baldwin, and Kearse – on the active roster. This move makes me even more confident that Harvin must be on schedule for a week seven or eight return. I realize that’s been the idea for a while now, but this is the first concrete roster evidence you can point to as an indicator that the team feels like a return very soon is likely. I’m optimistic about week eight; week seven is a short week before we go on the road again to pay Arizona on a Thursday night so I’m not sure if they would be ready to throw him in there that soon. Baldwin and Tate both hauled in five catches each, and Kearse made a nice TD grab.
Sidney Rice however continues to be inconsistent, and honestly, disappointing. While he is capable of making some clutch grabs, he just doesn’t feel to me like he’s trying very hard. 10 catches for 146 yards through five games is just not the kind of production acceptable for your number one receiver. He has two touchdowns, one of which was a beautiful snag in double coverage – but those were against the Jaguars who might have a hard time competing in the Pac-12 let alone the SEC. There didn’t look like there was any fight him during that 4th-down toss from Wilson. He stood there, even though he couldn’t have missed the defender going after the ball. He’s got to step up and do something in that moment, with the game in the balance. I can’t lay the whole loss on him but it was a disappointing display.
I didn’t like seeing our defense get lit up, but I also can’t deny that Luck is about as accurate as they come with most of his throws, and so many of those went to Wayne in good coverage and he just made plays. The blown coverage on the long TD was bad. I did like seeing us get pressure. It’s hard for me to look too closely at the defense at this point because it’s been a pretty rough five-game stretch to start the season and we are 4-1; the loss is disappointing but we are arguably through the toughest part of the schedule. No other game on our schedule looks nearly as difficult as going on the road for the second week in a row down five of our starting offensive players for a 10 AM start against an unfamiliar opponent, and still being in the game at the very end despite some horrible calls. I believe we are a better team than anyone else on our remaining schedule save possibly the Saints; luckily we get them at home.
Fun Fact of the week: (Stolen mercilessly from oldhawkfan and his post here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=75962 , this nugget of information was just way too good to pass up)
The Seahawks 2011 Calendar (some of these names are surprising since many of these players weren’t even on the 2011 roster, but the calendar was made less than halfway through the 2010 season)
Jan: Aaron Curry
Feb: David Hawthorne
March: Chris Spencer
April: John Carlson
May: Jordan Babineaux
June: Julius Jones
July: Justin Forsett
Aug: Lofa Tatupu
Sept: Marcus Trufant
Oct. Sean Locklear
Nov. TJ Houshmanznotevenworthspellingthatshitright
Dec. Matt Hasselbeck
Overtime:
The Rice/Miller Contracts – info from http://www.spotrac.com
It’s obvious we need to clear cap space and the two most obvious heavy contracts we have are from players who make great plays but are generally inconsistent: Sidney Rice, and Zach Miller.
Sidney Rice signed a 5 year/41m contract in 2011 with a 6m signing bonus and 18.5m guaranteed.
Through the current season, he will have earned a total of 17.5m in salary, and his 6m signing bonus. So essentially, his ‘guaranteed’ money has already been paid. If he were to be cut following the 2013 season, it would result in a dead money hit of 2.4m to the 2014 cap (signing bonuses are divided up over the course of the full contract and charged yearly – 6m divided by 5 years = 1.2m per year)
If Rice is on the team next season, he’s due a salary of 9.7m. In 2015 that number jumps to 10.2m. Huge numbers for a receiver who has made some nice plays but is obviously inconsistent and not as productive as most receivers making that sort of money.
Zach Miller signed a 5 year/34m contract in 2011 with a 5m signing bonus and 17m guaranteed.
Through the current season, he will have earned a total of 14.8m in salary, and his 5m signing bonus. His guaranteed money has also been paid to the tune of 19.8m. His prorated bonus over the next two years is a dead money hit of 2m. (two years @ 1m per year).
Miller’s contract also contains provisions for a roster bonus – a bonus paid so long as he is still on the roster. This is the sort of bonus you hear about when we get towards March 1st and you hear chatter about teams likely releasing players at that point; if the player is on the Roster on March 1st, he is automatically due the roster bonus in his contract. However if he is released, the team is no longer responsible for that bonus,a nd it doesn’t count against the cap.
If Miller is on the team in 2014, he counts as a 7m cap hit; in 2015 – 6m.
Conclusion:
I expect both players to be released if they aren’t willing to renegotiate. The writing for them was on the wall when we signed Percy Harvin to the richest contract in the history of the franchise, while knowing we will eventually need to pay guys like Wilson, Thomas, and Sherman. We’re going to want to give deals to the guys we can next season and front-loading a couple of them to get those guaranteed dollars off the books ASAP. Look for Golden Tate to get paid, and Rice to test free agency. I would say Miller has a better chance of re-negotiating than Rice does, given the respective value of their positions on the open market.
Week 4 Results:
The Good:
• Broncos over Cowboys
• Jets over Falcons
I know long-time Seahawk fans hate to see the Broncos win; I personally wrote that off a while ago and would rather see Tony Romo choke away another game. Raise your hand if you picked the Jets over the Falcons in a weekly pick ‘em? Okay then. Now it also looks like Julio Jones will be lost for the season with a foot injury, killing two of my fantasy teams in the process.
The Neutral:
• Packers over Lions
• Eagles over Giants
The teams I was leaning towards winning won, but now that it’s happened I realize the opposite result coulda been good too. We play the Giants though so I still a stand by wanting them out of the picture and not desparately fighting for a wild card spot when we do.
The Not-So-Good:
• Saint over Bears
• Rams over Jaguars
• Cardinals over Panthers
• 49ers over Texans
It’s never good when you lose and all three of your division opponents win, as does the team you’re mostly competing with for the best record in the NFC.
Week 5 Cheat Sheet:
The Walter Jones Division (important games):
Giants @ Bears
Sending da Bears to .500 is worth a victory to the giants despite my wish to have them crushed by the time we have brunch in their house.
Lions @ Browns
A few short years ago we were using games like this to torture terror suspects.
Packers @ Ravens
Go Ravens! Make Rodgers cry and/or bleed, and go all this guy on Clay “Chunkysoup” Matthews.
Rams @ Texans
Don’t Shaub your pants this time, Houston.
Saints @ Patriots
This week, I embrace you “Tom Terrific”.
Cardinals @ 49ers
A win makes the Cardinals 4-2, but also drops the 49ers to .500.
The Ben Obomanu Division (games of moderate significance):
Eagles @ Buccaneers
Simple pick of a winless toothless team over an unpredictable, exhausted, caged animal with neither likely to top the food chain.
Redskins @ Cowboys
The Kelly Jennings Division (games that, like Jennings himself, don’t really matter.)
Panthers @ Vikings
This one could go either way as neither team is awesome. I will go with the team most likely to finish last in its division at this point in the season.
Jaguars @ Broncos
Inconsequential to us but I’m just tired of hearing about Captain Forehead and the Enumclaw Blind Dates. Sweep the leg, Johnny.
Titans @ Seahawks:
Seahawks:
Pass Offense: 25
Rush Offense: 2
Total Offense: 12
Scoring: 7
Pass Defense: 5
Rush Defense: 18
Total Defense: 6
Scoring: 2
Turnover Differential: +7
Titans:
Pass Offense: 26
Rush Offense: 13
Total Offense: 26
Scoring: 15
Pass Defense: 9
Rush Defense: 14
Total Defense: 9
Scoring: 10
Turnover Differential: +8
Vegas Opening Spread:
Seattle -13.5
Vegas is usually right or they wouldn’t be doing it. I see a pretty easy win for the Seahawks coming home against the Titans. Tennessee has been impressive this season with some good wins but Fitzpatrick isn’t as dynamic as locker was playing before he went down, and their offense wasn’t explosive to begin with. I see us shutting down the run and forcing two or three interceptions in this game ala the last time we faced Fitzpatrick last year in Buffalo (or..Toronto I guess).
Their defense is sound but I think we will have too many short fields to not capitalize. The idea of Clemons and Irvin both being healthy and coming home for their first game makes me want to add another score or two onto my prediction for us but I’ll try not to get too carried away. I think we will get plenty of sacks and turnovers and while we may be forced into some punts I think we just have too many opportunities to not win big. Our defense just came off two sub-par performances and I think the 12th man is going to re-energize them and get them going again.
There is simply too much about the team that says they are 100 times more pissed off about losing their first game than any of us are. They will turn that into a convincing win.
Final Score:
Titans 13
Seahawks 31
