Last year the rookie of the year winners were announced the day *before* the Superbowl. I honestly feel that Wilson's only chance of winning the award will be if he gets his team to the big game (and Luck does not). RG3 just has Wilson beat in almost every statistical category, and has even improved his team by more wins. RG3 is on pace to be the 1st QB of the Superbowl era to lead the NFL in passer rating. Plus he's extremely likable, trendy, high draft pick, and all that.
What's really sad is that Wilson will likely miss the pro-bowl as well, at least if judged by that analyst vote the other day. I know the NFC has a lot of good QBs, but that's really a tough break for Wilson who is currently having the 3rd best season ever by a rookie QB.
If I may get religious on you guys, I think this is the kind of thing I see unfolding and think "God's plan." The way life works, sometimes there are moments where it can be better to lose than to win. People like rooting for an underdog, and that's what Wilson is right now. They sympathize strongly with a valiant effort that comes up just short of doing the unthinkable. I could see Wilson as being one of the most liked NFL players by next season. If he isn't one already. He will be a tremendous ambassador for the Seahawks for decades to come, whether he wins a stupid little award or not.