"Clayton claims he's "baffled" by Wilson contract talks"

[Popeyejones]

And so Rodgers is the first NFL agent ever to act this way since Free Agency and he can do some mojo that no other agent is willing to do?

Not buying it.

Five years ago he was the first agent to act this way in MLB. What's not to buy?

It's pretty straightforward what he's doing:

Unllike the real estate market where people are entering and exiting the market all the time, in professional sports leagues there's MUCH less information asymmetry as unlike home buyers and sellers, it's a much, much, much smaller group that like hangs out together all the time and is actively on the market multiple times over ten years. What that means is that there's utility to what Rodgers is doing in THIS SETTING that doesn't exist in the real estate setting.

Put more simply, if you're selling your house you don't pick an agent who is known for holding out for the best deals because how the hell would you know which agents hold out for the best deals? In the NFL, if you're negotiating your contract you have a lot more information, and everyone knows who holds out for the best deals, meaning more clients go to that person and in the long run it's in their financial best interest TO hold out for longer deals.

This is the EXACT same thing he did in MLB. Nobody repeatedly did this in MLB until he came along. Now he's in the NFL where nobody does this, and to the surprise of nobody, seems to still be acting like himself. I don't really get what's so hard to understand about it. Doing what he's doing is how he has made his name in the first place, dude.

(and just to say, I doubt Wilson is a dummy either, and Rodgers is doing precisely what he was hired to do; why else when your contract is coming up would you fire your football agent and bring in Rodgers?)

 

[Polaris]

And so Rodgers is the first NFL agent ever to act this way since Free Agency and he can do some mojo that no other agent is willing to do?

Not buying it.

Five years ago he was the first agent to act this way in MLB. What's not to buy?

Unless like the real estate market where people are entering and exiting all the time, in professional sports leagues there's MUCH less information asymmetry (unlike home buyers and sellers, it's a much, much, much smaller group that like hangs out together all the time and is actively on the market multiple times over ten years). What that means is that there's utility to what Rodgers is doing in THIS SETTING that doesn't exist in the real estate setting.

Put more simply, if you're selling your house you don't pick an agent who is known for holding out for the best deals because how the hell would you know which agents hold out for the best deals? In the NFL, if you're negotiating your contract you have a lot more information, and everyone knows who holds out for the best deals, meaning more clients go to that person and in the long run it's in their financial best interest TO hold out for longer deals.

This is the EXACT same thing he did in MLB. I don't really get what's so hard to understand about it. This is how he has made his name...

I am not buying it because you are making it sound too easy. Remember that a number of NFL agents actually have a closer relationship with their clients than a mere agent-client relationship, and as you just said he's been doing this in the MLB for five years.

You're telling me that NO other NFL agent has done this in the history of free agency ever? You're telling me that Rogers is so much smarter than anyone else in the room?

I won't say it's impossible, but until you show me a lot more than you have, I am NOT buying it.

 

[Popeyejones]

I am not buying it because you are making it sound too easy. Remember that a number of NFL agents actually have a closer relationship with their clients than a mere agent-client relationship, and as you just said he's been doing this in the MLB for five years.

You're telling me that NO other NFL agent has done this in the history of free agency ever? You're telling me that Rogers is so much smarter than anyone else in the room?

I won't say it's impossible, but until you show me a lot more than you have, I am NOT buying it.

Um, no, I said this awhile back but I don't think it's "too easy" to do it. It's why I said he's a weird offshoot of the analytics movement and is the first agent (in MLB at least) to think like an economist rather than thinking like an agent or a baseball guy. That's not easy to do, as evidenced by the fact that in MLB nobody had done it before.

How can you not buy that nobody would have done this before when in MLB we already KNOW that he made his name doing this when nobody had done it before?

 

[Polaris]

I am not buying it because you are making it sound too easy. Remember that a number of NFL agents actually have a closer relationship with their clients than a mere agent-client relationship, and as you just said he's been doing this in the MLB for five years.

You're telling me that NO other NFL agent has done this in the history of free agency ever? You're telling me that Rogers is so much smarter than anyone else in the room?

I won't say it's impossible, but until you show me a lot more than you have, I am NOT buying it.

Um, no, I said this awhile back but I don't think it's "too easy" to do it. It's why I said he's a weird offshoot of the analytics movement and is the first agent (in MLB at least) to think like an economist rather than thinking like an agent or a baseball guy. That's not easy to do, as evidenced by the fact that in MLB nobody had done it before.

How can you not buy that nobody would have done this before when in MLB we already KNOW that he made his name doing this when nobody had done it before?!??!

I heard Rodgers interview. He is explicitly assuming the 'hawks will use the exclusive tag, but as I and others have pointed out, the 'hawks by no means need to do this and such a thing is NOT STUPID from their PoV. Not only that, but Rodgers was extremely cagey and tried not to admit (but eventually was forced to) that he pushes his clients to test free agency. The problem is you can do this in the MLB. You can't in the NFL.

Finally, given that he HAS done this in the MLB and given that the math required is simple arithemetic, I find it incredible indeed that somehow Rodgers and only Rodgers has somehow unlocked the Rosetta stone of the NFL.

Not. Buying. It. No matter how much you claim otherwise.

 

[Popeyejones]

You're also assuming they'd use the unrestricted tag, which doesn't make any sense from the Hawks' side unless they're 1) after the draft picks or 2) sincerely believe they've already offered Wilson more than anyone else would. If they're after the draft picks so be it, but if they sincerely believe #2, they're dumb for offering him that much to begin with (and as I've said repeatedly, I don't think John Schneider is dumb).

It DOES make sense for Seattle to use the non-exclusive tag on Wilson (if it comes to that).

Using your numbering system,

1) they are not after the draft picks... no way, no how. The plan is to retain Wilson any way possible. He's their nugget and he's going nowhere else.

2) your premise here is they offered Wilson more than anybody else would, which may not be the case. Let's assume that Clayton is spot-on with his assigned value of a reasonable contract for Wilson at 4 years/$87M... and let's say after Seattle puts the non-exclusive tag on Wilson another team (or more) steps up to the plate and puts together an offer sheet for 4 years/$91M (or somewhere in between... or for slightly more).

What would Seattle do???... they'd match the offer and lock up Wilson.

There's nothing dumb with that strategy.

Seattle believes it knows what Wilson's fair market value is. I am assuming that is what they are currently offering him. To date, Wilson does not agree... so why not put the non-exclusive tag on him in 2016 (if it comes to that) and let his fair market value be determined by the actual market?

There's a lot of assumptions in your post which I don't think hold water.

1) Seattle thinking they know Wilson's fair market value is immaterial, what matters for them is how much he is worth TO THEM. If they thought he was worth less on the open market than he was to them, they wouldn't enter negotiations with him this offseason. They'd just let him hit the open market and then sign him for the depressed value that he'd face on the open market. They're not doing this though because the whole premise is flawed.

2) Another team signing him for 4/91 only works if you assume that his open market value over the life if the contract is worth the one year 2-3 million dollar savings that you'd get from using the transition tag over the franchise tag. Anything more than that and unless you're just after the draft picks, you've made a HUGE mistake in letting someone else negotiate your contract for you. As for him only getting 4/91 on the open market, I think you're fooling yourself, because that would mean that the Seahawks are dumb to offer 4/87 in a non-competitive market, and Rodgers is dumb for not taking it. Again, I think Rodgers sincerely doesn't care if the Hawks use the franchise or transition tag, if he acts as he has in baseball the only thing he won't do is sign an extension or new deal before Wilson's contract is up.

(and hey, sincerely, maybe this is all for naught and he does, we really don't know).

 

[Popeyejones]

I heard Rodgers interview. He is explicitly assuming the 'hawks will use the exclusive tag, but as I and others have pointed out, the 'hawks by no means need to do this and such a thing is NOT STUPID from their PoV. Not only that, but Rodgers was extremely cagey and tried not to admit (but eventually was forced to) that he pushes his clients to test free agency. The problem is you can do this in the MLB. You can't in the NFL.

Finally, given that he HAS done this in the MLB and given that the math required is simple arithemetic, I find it incredible indeed that somehow Rodgers and only Rodgers has somehow unlocked the Rosetta stone of the NFL.

Not. Buying. It. No matter how much you claim otherwise.

Um, okay, so you claim the the arithmetic is even more simple in MLB.

So, sincerely, answer me this:

with that even simpler arithmateic how do you explain that in the last five years he's been the only agent in MLB to "unlock" this "Rosetta stone"? Real question.

Baseball has had FA since 1976. According to you it would be even simpler to do in baseball but nobody did it until he came along.

Why? That's a real question.

If you can't answer it, you're going to need a better argument than simple doubting to explain why nobody has done it since 1993 in the NFL until he came along (assuming of course he's still acting like himself and doing it in the NFL, which you say he has even owned up to).

Remember, as I've explained upthread, because of the way the franchise tag is calculated, for the game he's seemingly playing, that difference between MLB and the NFL actually works in his favor.

 

[Polaris]

We'll see. I think that Rodgers is making a serious mistake and I am unconvinced that Rodgers is an exceptional baseball agent let alone football agent. I also dispute that the structure of the franchise tag works in his favor whatsoever.

However, again, we'll see.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Now I don't think for a moment Russell will leave Seattle, but they better not get too cute with this non exclusive tender thing because I recall a certain GM that got a little cute with the best guard in football and a certain team from Minnesota royally screwed us over in that.

 

[Polaris]

Now I don't think for a moment Russell will leave Seattle, but they better not get too cute with this non exclusive tender thing because I recall a certain GM that got a little cute with the best guard in football and a certain team from Minnesota royally screwed us over in that.

True, but it's also true that poison pilling a contract like Minny did to us is illegal now (with the new CBA). The biggest risk would be another suiter willing to shell out more Cap space than Seattle would be willing to match and given how things are now, I'd say that risk is miniscule.

 

[hawk45]

The Redskins traded 3 first round picks and a second for just the chance to draft a mobile qb with an arm without knowing how rgIII would work out at an NFL level.

 

[Polaris]

The Redskins traded 3 first round picks and a second for just the chance to draft a mobile qb with an arm without knowing how rgIII would work out at an NFL level.

Sure for a cheap rookie deal (under the new CBA). What you didn't (and won't) see is the confluence of willing (and able) to spend two first round picks, AND be willing (or able) to outspend the 'hawks on cap space, and be able to get Russel to sign (and satisfy his wants).

Even then, how well did that work out for the Redskins? I assure you the rest of the NFL noticed and noticed how badly it has crippled that franchise.

 

[onanygivensunday]

2) Another team signing him for 4/91 only works if you assume that his open market value over the life if the contract is worth the one year 2-3 million dollar savings that you'd get from using the transition tag over the franchise tag. Anything more than that and unless you're just after the draft picks, you've made a HUGE mistake in letting someone else negotiate your contract for you. As for him only getting 4/91 on the open market, I think you're fooling yourself, because that would mean that the Seahawks are dumb to offer 4/87 in a non-competitive market, and Rodgers is dumb for not taking it. Again, I think Rodgers sincerely doesn't care if the Hawks use the franchise or transition tag, if he acts as he has in baseball the only thing he won't do is sign an extension or new deal before Wilson's contract is up.

I believe that you're referring to the non-exclusive franchise tag... and the exclusive franchise tag.

The transition tag is not even in the conversation.

And who cares what others consider "dumb"... that aspect doesn't determine the outcome of this situation.

That's not the issue.

The issue is what is Wilson's fair market value?

Seattle has proven they will pay fair market value.

Wilson and his agent must believe that it is higher then what Seattle is offering.

That's their prerogative... and Seattle's prerogative is to slap the franchise tag on him next year if they don't come to an agreement this year.

 

[rideaducati]

I will say it again lots of assumptions by everyone, problem is none knows but the FO, Wilson and WIlsons agent and none of them are talking.

Thank you Captain Obvious. .. What ever would we do without you?

 

[DavidSeven]

Seattle traded a 1st/3rd/7th for the honor of paying through the nose for Percy Harvin, a mercurial wide receiver whose value came mostly from kick returns.

No QB-needy team in this league would even blink at the thought of surrendering two first rounders to sign Wilson. This shouldn't even be a debate. If a team has a chance to acquire a proven franchise QB, there is hardly a limit on what teams would give up in terms of draft capital. They're that important. What would Cleveland give up for Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers? Probably an entire draft class and then some if they had the chance. And it would probably be worth it.

 

[Anthony!]

I will say it again lots of assumptions by everyone, problem is none knows but the FO, Wilson and WIlsons agent and none of them are talking.

Thank you Captain Obvious. .. What ever would we do without you?

you would be lost of course

 

[olyfan63]

Who knows if Wilson would be as successful on any other NFL team?
If we have to pay Wilson $20-25M per year, where will we lose depth and quality? Will we then be a team that has a good QB and offense, but just a good, but not GREAT, defense?

Hypothetical:
Would you rather have one more SB win, with a $20M salary cap advantage and then lose Russell...
Or contend for the next 5 years straight but lose in the playoffs each time and not reach the SB?

I'd be just as happy to have Russell play out the year under the current contract, have our best shot ever at another SB win, with our $15-20M advantage at the QB position, and then see what happens after that.
In any case, the 'Hawks need to be developing the best "Plan B" options they can.

I think Russell Wilson's skill set has unique value in the Seattle system, but not necessarily elsewhere. Wilson and the offense struggled and squandered pretty much a full quarter in SBXLIX while New England made a 10-point comeback. Where was our great QB then? It's not like New England had a truly incredible defense. Blame Bevell if you want, but Wilson didn't exactly get it done when it mattered. Wilson is TOO SHORT for that playcall, and it cost us the Lombardi. (Personally, I blame Bevell more for the retarded playcall that had Wilson using a below-NFL-average area of his skills instead of taking advantage of a playcall that DID use Wilson's true gifts, mobility and decision-making)

The despised Niners made it to a Super Bowl with Colin Kaepernick as their QB, and would have won were it not for Jacoby Jones' 108 yard kickoff return. The Ravens of 2000-ish won a Super Bowl with Trent-freaking-Dilfer as their QB, with an all-time elite defense, which is pretty much the setup the Hawks are in position to prove they have.

I'm fine with letting Russell play out the final year of his rookie contract and taking our chances with that.
How do we know that Belichick and the Patriots didn't expose enough fatal flaws in Wilson's game in SB XLIX that other teams will now use this year to stymie and ultimately beat the Hawks?

Do we really know that Wilson can carry the team himself with $20M less of talent on Defense and Offense?
How many times has Wilson carried the team with the +$20M advantage we have now? I'd like to say GB NFCCG, but really, Wilson dug that hole, and the D shut down Rogers just enough, the Special Teams made big plays, so it's hard to credit Wilson fully with carrying the team out of it. I could go with Wilson carrying the team in several games in 2012, including Chicago, and in the Atlanta loss in the playoffs, and in 2013, maybe the NFCCG vs Niners, but again it was Wilson's screwups that helped set up the dire circumstances to begin with, and it was the D that sealed the game.

If Wilson's agent wants to roll the dice, fine, but the sky is NOT falling for the Seahawks. Would Seattle be a better team by tying up $25M/Year in the QB position? I'm not convinced the answer is yes. Could PC/JS strike gold again in the draft at QB, or by a retread who discovers new life when they have an elite defense and a great running game? Let Wilson and his agent do what they will, but the Seattle FO should not cave to team-crippling demands.

 

[olyfan63]

Seattle traded a 1st/3rd/7th for the honor of paying through the nose for Percy Harvin, a mercurial wide receiver whose value came mostly from kick returns.

No QB-needy team in this league would even blink at the thought of surrendering two first rounders to sign Wilson. This shouldn't even be a debate. If a team has a chance to acquire a proven franchise QB, there is hardly a limit on what teams would give up in terms of draft capital. They're that important. What would Cleveland give up for Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers? Probably an entire draft class and then some if they had the chance. And it would probably be worth it.

Other teams looking at Wilson would evaluate his fit for their system and philosophy. Andrew Luck and Aaron Rogers are closer plug-in replacements for most NFL offenses than Russell Wilson would be. Both Luck and Rogers need weapons to be successful. We saw how Wilson struggled last year with less-than-stellar weapons to throw to. But Wilson somewhat makes up for that with his running. The question is, will Wilson's body continue to hold up?

The lowest-price QB, current salaries, who I think Seattle would stand a good chance of winning a Super Bowl with would be Philip Rivers, and he's making $15M per year. I think the top 7, Rogers, Rapistburger, Newton, Ryan, Flacco, Brees, Tannehill, all would have a really good shot to win a Super Bowl playing QB with this Seattle team around them. Interestingly, Tom Brady makes $11M average per year. Without a doubt that savings helped them afford other talent last year around Brady that got them a title, including renting Revis and Browner for the year, two players that made a huge difference in the big game. (If Browner doesn't stuff Kearse's pick effort, Seattle has two Lombardi's in the case.)

Two first rounders and a $20M salary cap edge over the other top NFL contenders? PC/JS have worked miracles with less.

 

[rideaducati]

Seattle traded a 1st/3rd/7th for the honor of paying through the nose for Percy Harvin, a mercurial wide receiver whose value came mostly from kick returns.

No QB-needy team in this league would even blink at the thought of surrendering two first rounders to sign Wilson. This shouldn't even be a debate. If a team has a chance to acquire a proven franchise QB, there dly a limit on what teams would give up in terms of draft capital. They're that important. What would Cleveland give up for Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers? Probably an entire draft class and then some if they had the chance. And it would probably be worth it.

You're right, every team would give two first round picks for a franchise QB, but would they also pay many millions more than the Seahawks are willing to pay? The new team would have to blow up the QB market and pay Russell three or four million more per year than the current highest paid QB before the Seahawks would let Russell go.

Top salaries in the NFL don't jump by millions, they typically jump the previous best by a hundred thousand per year or less. Thinking that a team will destroy the QB market for Russell seems silly to me. No GM is going to do that because he would then have the fifth best player at his position demanding to be paid millions more than the best player at his position. I don't see a GM doing something that dumb. I may be wrong, but I'd be willing to gamble on being right.

 

[BadgerVid]

I have NEVER seen a team in the NFL be willing to burn two first round picks for anyone (no not even the Browns). I see no reason why the Hawks (especially if they keep a sizeable cap room...which they will) have any reason to be uncomfortable or nervous about using the non-restricted tag....and I wouldn't be either.

You are ASSUMING (as is Rodgers) that the 'hawks will use the exclusive tag and use it both years. Maybe they do, but maybe they don't and I think you are assuming far too much as is Wilson's agent.

What did the Redskins spend for the ability to draft RG3? A guy who had never played a down in the NFL and turned out to be possibly the 3rd or 4th best QB in that draft.

Now compare that to a guy who has shown in every way possible that he is a successful NFL QB with records and a Superbowl ring in his first 3 years.

 

[WindCityHawk]

Here's this, fwiw.

http://sidelinebuzz.com/russell-wilson- ... ag-part-1/