I, personally, think that the risk of drafting a QB at 5 is much higher than drafting a DT or Edge and the payoff (odds) isn't measurably better....higher risk, equal reward. There just aren't many perennial pro-bowl QBs drafted in the top 5. In other words, you're just as likely to get an immediate game changer at Edge compared to QB, or miss altogether. However, missing on a QB at #5 will change the organization. You have to rebuild the Offensive system for the QB so a bust takes years to come back from. A DL miss is LJCollier-esque and you just move on with life. A swing on a QB later in the draft has huge upside and very little risk.
Think you‘re operating from a serious misconception on top 10 QBs.
Yes they bust at about 50% as top ten picks, however, those that don’t bust make up the vast majority of tier 1 & 2 QBs. You’ll see figures at 60% or higher, but those reflect the totality of the first round. Every round after that takes an exponential plunge in producing stars.
As for top ten DL picks, they actually underperform the pick at a higher rate, but provide marginal value recovery due to multiple roster spots and rotations getting them some play time.
Rookie contracts are a great value so if your QB is a Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, or Zach Wilson you can move on pretty quickly at less than the current 1 year cost of a tier 2 vet QB.
Three of the top 4 QBs this year will fit perfectly in the existing offense (Levis even played in it his junior year). AR is another story, but even with him you’re hoping a redshirt gets him ready for a slightly modified system as opposed to going full Greg Roman.
If pressed for a name, I think that kid from TCU, Duggan, seems like someone PC would want and might be available where PC/JS would have him slotted. I'm uncomfortable predicting a name because I have a bad track record, but that's my guess. ...and lots of draft day trades... let's say 4 over the three days.
Duggan looked horrible during drills, struggling with even the short slants. Are you thinking Bennett from Georgia? He looked more athletic than expected.
Given the extra picks this year I’d support the QB double dip for a Hall, Bennett, Haener, Tune, DTR, etc