At the end of the day the Hawks need players, difference makers not assets. You trade back when you want rotational guys. We need a couple of bad asses on the D line and at linebacker
I don't agree with this conceptually. Historically, teams clearly find difference makers throughout the draft, including in UDFA. The probability gets lower as you move down, but with more picks you also have more total opportunities. The math to calculate which is better depends on your assumptions about how much certainty there is in the draft process. Less uncertainty makes higher picks look better while more uncertainty slants the math towards favoring more chances.
In my view, the fact that you can find star players well into the very bottom of the draft is strong evidence that the draft process is high uncertain.
Time and again we see that the most important metric for a prospect is their mental makeup: ambition, grit, work ethic, football IQ. Guys like Eddie Jackson check all those boxes now with the benefit of hindsight, but in the draft process are mostly indistinguishable from all the rest who are coached by their agents to say exactly the same things. You can talk to their coaches, hire PIs to talk to their ex-teammates and ex-girlfriends, interview them multiple times throughout the process, and it's still imperfect because even the players themselves don't know how they are really going to adapt to the NFL environment and suddenly being rich.
The #5 overall pick will receive a signing bonus of 21 million dollars this year. How many people reading this forum would put in even 50% effort at work if suddenly given $21m? How many would put in 90% effort? 100% effort? Now think about how few would put in 110% effort - from diet to sleep to the weight room to the class room to the practice field. We'll never be able to predict that well, and our current prediction ability is frankly terrible.
Making matters worse, injuries are pervasive and strike even the hardest working players with the best medical grades. Maybe you hit on a promising CB like Tre Brown only for them to suffer a torn patella tendon.
If you look at draft picks like uncertain lottery tickets then quantity isn't a tradeoff for quality but rather the path to quality.