Yeah what we thought

[cymatica]

I agree. But nine full seasons since that game is a lot of time. That's roughly 150 games that Russell has played since then. What is a well-known fact now wasn't nearly as obvious back then. It's an advantage we have today that Bevell didn't have in SB 49.

I remember reading posts the next week from fans calling out the play and the fact that Wilson was not great at quick timing routes, which doesn't get any better when throwing to a #5 receiver. People were all over that play and dissecting why it was a bad call with the knowledge they had at the time, and that was just fans and analysts. Bevell had the benefit of seeing him in practice every day.

 

[chris98251]

Spiking the ball when we still had a timeout doesn't make a lot of sense. Call the timeout and keep it at 2nd down and 3 shots from the 2. But I agree, Russell has to accept a big part of that blame. He's the one who pulled the trigger and threw off target.

I say spike due to the amount of time left and it would kill the clock, it would keep the players focused, time out tend to disrupt that, they get back to the huddle and get a new play as well as a second option called depending on alignment of defense.

They showed that pass play, if you use that same alignment Browner still keys off Kearse, you change the primary or audible to a roll out with Kearse releasing to the outside for an easy pass, Browner is going to try and jam him, he just steps to the left and is open and Browner has to choose Kearse or Wilson, if he goes Kearse Wilson has a walk in basically if you stay with a pass play.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Mael, curious about your opinion on something. No right or wrong answer and no debate. Do you think Ricardo scores if he catches the ball? I've watched that play 100 times too and I think he still comes up short. Butler was right there and I think he stuffs him short of the goalline. Just my opinion.

It's hard to tell. I think if Ricardo's route flattens out a bit and goes more toward the vacated middle of the field rather than drifting toward the endzone, he'd be further from the pick action that Kearse is dealing with and Butler's path to the ball would be a few steps longer.

Is it enough to get in? ....Maybe. Should at least be enough to not be intercepted, but this is a play that would've been timing based and thrown to the same spot over and over in practice to develop rapport, so who knows if that was even an option.

Even still, if Kearse just worked a foot further to the left to impede Malcolm's path rather than trying to push Browner north-south for his first two steps, it's an easy money touchdown and we have a dynasty.

This is why this play specifically has engaged my curiosity more than any before. Now that the raw sting has gone away, it's truly a spectacle. It took so many things going exactly wrong at exactly the same time for it to end up just not scoring, and even more going wrong for it to end up crushing a dynasty in it's relative infancy.

I don't know what truly determined personnel at that moment, but for my money, I would've wanted ADB or Kearse catching and Chris Matthews blocking. I'm sure most of them feel the same, so I'm sure there was an extenuating circumstance that I'm not aware of or not remembering right now. Maybe Lockette just did better than them on that play in practice.

 

[SeaWolv]

We lost a game that season vs. the Rams when Beast got stuffed on a 4th and one. In any event, if we run and don't score, we are forced to call our last timeout.

That makes it 3rd and goal with no way to stop the clock. If we run on 3rd down and don't get in, the game is over, so essentially it forces us into a passing situation if we want to insure ourselves of two shots at the end zone.

As I said, I'm not saying what Bevell did was the ideal course of action. I would have preferred @morgulon1 idea of getting right to the LOS and run a play before the Pats could get their heavy package in.

The Rams had Aaron Donald the Pats did not. Just because the Rams stuffed Beast on 4th and 1 doesn't mean NE would on 2nd and goal at the 5.

Why wouldn't RW be able to throw the ball away on 3rd down to stop the clock, thus allowing for a 4th down play?

Yes Bevell should have run tempo with ML before NE got heavy.

 

[Ozzy]

In your opinion.

I think they're all at fault. You have chosen to blame the receivers .

That's fine .

I choose to blame the coach who selected the play, then I put it on the supposed franchise QB to use discretion and make the right choice, to have a feel for the game , the players , the opponent. Like a Drew Brees , Tom Brady etc..

They were letting Russ cook and he blew it.

That's not totally true. I said Bevell deserves the majority of the blame for calling a timing play that required perfect execution against the best corner in football in those situations. Then I blame Kearse for the terrible block. The throw which is a bang bang throw and you're relying on everyone else to do their job was the least critical of the play. It was in a spot where if the receiver ran the right route and/or Kearse held up even a half second longer its a touchdown. I just don't see how you can blame the QB when that's the case. I get it, everyone wants to hate Russ so we will look to blame everything on him but I just think its not objective. Brady, Brees all make that throw in that instance, I have zero doubts about it. My opinion of course.

 

[Ozzy]

Russell threw the ball, the interception was on him, Bevell was not in the game, as soon as he seen Browner over Kearse he could have done two things, audible, they had a lot of time if they would not have screwed up as always and took a long time to get the play in, or Russell spikes the ball and we reset. The so called leader on offense did not lead.

It's a bang bang play though. It wasn't a play were you go through your reads, you get the snap and get it out hoping that everyone did their job and literally no one did. That's a touchdown exactly where he threw it if Lockette runs a better route or Kearse holds up even a half second longer so its wild to me to blame Russ even though I know everyone wants to because they hate him. There is enough stuff to pile on Russ but this play just isn't it for me. No QB spikes that ball because that's not how that play is designed. I don't think any elite QB does anything different there. It all happened way too fast.

 

[Spin Doctor]

That's a very good summation, and I agree with nearly all of it.

However, in defense of Bevell, the weaknesses in Russell's game of which you correctly pointed out may not have been that apparent at that time. He didn't have the benefit of another 7-8 years of history to reference as we do today, kind of a hindsight is 20/20 proposition.

Wilson's weakness was known quantity at the time. If you looked at throwing heat maps from that era, we almost always avoided throwing in the middle of the field. Wilson was known for not being a great timing passer even back then. People at that time blamed Carroll for meddling or Bevell being the devil and stymying Wilson's development. The real reason behind the Seahawks offensive structure was Wilson himself, he just wasn't good at making those short throws over the middle. His short passing game was always all over the place.

The Seahawks knew this, the LOB talked about it after Wilson got traded. He was known for having limitations even back then. You also have to remember that the staff saw him in practice for 3 years at this point. If they didn't know it would have been a huge indictment on the Seahawks coaching staff. Based on how the offense was structured, I'm pretty sure they had a good idea of Wilson's strengths. Pundits on the NFL Network often marveled at how simple the Seahawks offense was, how it was lacking the nuance of modern NFL passing games. As we know now, that was done deliberately to work around Wilson's limitations as a passer.

 

[chris98251]

It's a bang bang play though. It wasn't a play were you go through your reads, you get the snap and get it out hoping that everyone did their job and literally no one did. That's a touchdown exactly where he threw it if Lockette runs a better route or Kearse holds up even a half second longer so its wild to me to blame Russ even though I know everyone wants to because they hate him. There is enough stuff to pile on Russ but this play just isn't it for me. No QB spikes that ball because that's not how that play is designed. I don't think any elite QB does anything different there. It all happened way too fast.

You read pre snap, Browner on Kearse already ready to stuff him is an easy call, it's not after the snap, Wilson responsible for reading the defense, but that is also one of his flaws, recognition of a defense. Why Tjack was so valuable, film room education of Wilson.

 

[MORGULON]

That's not totally true. I said Bevell deserves the majority of the blame for calling a timing play that required perfect execution against the best corner in football in those situations. Then I blame Kearse for the terrible block. The throw which is a bang bang throw and you're relying on everyone else to do their job was the least critical of the play. It was in a spot where if the receiver ran the right route and/or Kearse held up even a half second longer its a touchdown. I just don't see how you can blame the QB when that's the case. I get it, everyone wants to hate Russ so we will look to blame everything on him but I just think its not objective. Brady, Brees all make that throw in that instance, I have zero doubts about it. My opinion of course.

Nice post Ozzy.

You're right , I do have a hard bias against Russ and it slants my attitude towards him and
"The play".
His lack of execution is the most visible part even though the WR and coordinator were equally to blame .

 

[cymatica]

It's a bang bang play though. It wasn't a play were you go through your reads, you get the snap and get it out hoping that everyone did their job and literally no one did. That's a touchdown exactly where he threw it if Lockette runs a better route or Kearse holds up even a half second longer so its wild to me to blame Russ even though I know everyone wants to because they hate him. There is enough stuff to pile on Russ but this play just isn't it for me. No QB spikes that ball because that's how that play is designed. I don't think any elite QB does anything different there. It all happened way too fast.

Agreed. I think most people at the time understood this, didn't see Wilson get anywhere near the heat as Bevell and Caroll.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I'm still baffled people blame the throw. If you know play design its a bang bang throw that is dependant on a block holding up which didn't. Every QB makes that same throw in that situation. If Kearse even slows Browner down its a touchdown. If Lockette doesn't round it slightly its a touchdown. The throw was the last thing we should be blaming on that play and people that do I think just have a massive issue with Russ so its an easy target. We should be blaming Bevel for calling that play knowing it was based on Kearse blocking Browner(which wasn't going to happen) and your special teams gunner running a tough precise route. Russ wasn't the problem on that play.

I think there's some nuance here.

I do blame the throw (in conjunction with other things that happened simultaneously) but I don't blame Russ for making the throw.

The throw and the placement of the throw is a part of why that interception happened, but I (as critical of Russ as I have been) can't say that he did anything wrong there. It wasn't his job nor can I realistically say that he should've altered the throw.

It's a timing play in which he needs to throw to a spot and trust the receiver to get there. He didn't realistically have time to alter that throw nor did he have any reason to from what he could see.

He needed to trust that Kearse would be able to impede Butler a bit. That's how that play works.

But, like I said - it took Kearse not impeding Butler, Lockette not flattening the route towards the middle of field, Lockette not being able to best Butler for the ball, the throw being in an optimal location and trajectory for Butler to have the easiest chance at a pick.... it took all of it. All of that. Any component of that missing = a Seahawks repeat.

 

[chris98251]

I think there's some nuance here.

I do blame the throw (in conjunction with other things that happened simultaneously) but I don't blame Russ for making the throw.

The throw and the placement of the throw is a part of why that interception happened, but I (as critical of Russ as I have been) can't say that he did anything wrong there. It wasn't his job nor can I realistically say that he should've altered the throw.

It's a timing play in which he needs to throw to a spot and trust the receiver to get there. He didn't realistically have time to alter that throw nor did he have any reason to from what he could see.

He needed to trust that Kearse would be able to impede Butler a bit. That's how that play works.

But, like I said - it took Kearse not impeding Butler, Lockette not flattening the route towards the middle of field, Lockette not being able to best Butler for the ball, the throw being in an optimal location and trajectory for Butler to have the easiest chance at a pick.... it took all of it. All of that. Any component of that missing = a Seahawks repeat.

Seeing Browner on Kearse before the snap should have cancelled that play before the snap, it was doomed before the snap.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Seeing Browner on Kearse before the snap should have cancelled that play before the snap, it was doomed before the snap.

There's 26 seconds on the clock. The check is to run it into an 8 man box and then need to burn your only timeout when you inevitably lose 2 yards. Audibling to a separate pass play is something they have neither the play clock nor the game clock buffer to do.

All you need Kearse to do is not try to push Browner north-south and instead try to drift left to seal off Butler. Even if Kearse gets stopped, Malcolm Butler would have to be frame perfect to get there in time. Otherwise, you have a super favorable look at the Patriots are bringing 8 and vacating the middle of the field.

It's easy to say "cancel the play!" with the benefit of hindsight, but that just was not feasible nor advisable in a world where they didn't have the benefit of precognition.

Sometimes, you play the odds right and you lose anyway. Their odds were better on that throw than they were wasting a down on a run into the Patriots heavies (that had a hard on for that run and would've snuffed it, if you watch the play back).

 

[NoGain]

Nah...it was a crap call. No question. You prepare for these situations. That's what you do. That play should not have even been close to the top of the chart.

 

[chris98251]

There's 26 seconds on the clock. The check is to run it into an 8 man box and then need to burn your only timeout when you inevitably lose 2 yards. Audibling to a separate pass play is something they have neither the play clock nor the game clock buffer to do.

All you need Kearse to do is not try to push Browner north-south and instead try to drift left to seal off Butler. Even if Kearse gets stopped, Malcolm Butler would have to be frame perfect to get there in time. Otherwise, you have a super favorable look at the Patriots are bringing 8 and vacating the middle of the field.

It's easy to say "cancel the play!" with the benefit of hindsight, but that just was not feasible nor advisable in a world where they didn't have the benefit of precognition.

Sometimes, you play the odds right and you lose anyway. Their odds were better on that throw than they were wasting a down on a run into the Patriots heavies (that had a hard on for that run and would've snuffed it, if you watch the play back).

Spike the effing ball, how hard is that ! Kills clock, negates any play, done deal.

 

[schkoot]

Too bad he had politicians on the show otherwise I might have watched...I still think it was about a Russ mvp. Having Lynch as an mvp would have been a pr disaster for the league. Not hero Russ though. Also moving fwd if Russ wasn't made hero his ego and butt hurt attitude would of made things a lot worse than they became for the team. It was the day this team died no matter what happened on paper in the following seasons.

I'm posting without having read the next few pages, but I'm not sure this take is correct. ML was handed the ball the previous play and damn near scored. I doubt they had the play drawn up for him to be stopped near the goal line. I don't think there would have been any disappointment from anyone on the sideline if he broke that plane.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I'm sorry. If I'm judging this call solely on its situational merit without considering result, this was a decent call against the personnel and defensive look the Patriots had on-field.

If they still have THIS LOOK during that fateful play despite Browner apparently knowing the play... it's actually not a bad call at all. There's a reason it was successful for them, and there's a reason it's still run in the NFL to this day. The concept has merit.

This is not the worst call of all time. It's the worst cataclysm we've ever experienced as a franchise, but the causes are many and some of them are fairly blameless. It took a perfect storm.

We can beat this to death in hindsight. Sure, I'd audible out of the play too if I knew that a supremely unlikely disaster would occur during said play. Who wouldn't? At the time, though - why would anyone audible out of a play that saves your timeout and matches up well against New England's defensive look and personnel package, especially with previous little time remaining and an actively running clock?

Sometimes you have a day where you put together an effort that conceptually had nothing wrong with it, yet it rains shit on you anyway.

Sometimes you have trip aces and someone hits a flush on the river. You don't fold the trip aces because you might lose. You raised the pot because the odds were in your favor, and you were right to do so.

Seattle had that sort of thing happen on a February night in 2015. Humans have a need to blame their pain on a single offending party - it makes our pain feel legitimate. We like to feel wronged because acknowledging that the world is unfair is harder on our outlook. This, however, was a case of us making a decent bet and just... losing.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Spike the effing ball, how hard is that ! Kills clock, negates any play, done deal.

That would be supremely idiotic to do in a scenario when you have 3 shots to get into the endzone to win a friggin championship.

No one in the world would recommend that sort of thing at the time. Only in hindsight would anyone ever recommend spiking the ball with like 5 seconds left on the playclock and wasting 1 of 3 remaining chances you have to score.

 

[NoGain]

It was a TERRIBLE call. No ands ifs or buts about it. You don't call a play that requires the shortest starting QB in the league to throw a timing pass over/through lineman that tower over him to the center of the field (something he's notoriously bad at) to a second tier receiver at the most clutch moment imaginable. OMFG! It was a HORRIBLE call. The play no way whatsoever played into RW's strengths.

 

[Maelstrom787]

It was a TERRIBLE call. No ands ifs or buts about it. You don't call a play that requires the shortest starting QB in the league to throw a timing pass over/through lineman that tower over him to the center of the field (something he's notoriously bad at) to a second tier receiver at the most clutch moment imaginable. OMFG! It was a HORRIBLE call.

The throw got off fine. Russ was in the gun and the throw wasn't really over the middle, it was outside of the hashes. It's not like it was a 3 step drop out of a singleback formation.

All of those things you mentioned didn't really affect what happened. Russ had run that play successfully numerous times and the formation made his height of little concern, especially considering his high release and the fact that it's a spot throw.

The second tier receiver part - fine. That's noted and fair, but it's valid to wonder why Ricardo got the call. He and Russ might've just had the best rapport on that play in practice.