Who else was 100% certain

[cdn hawk fan]

When they stack the box expecting the hawks to run, do what other teams do, slip a tight end out and lob the ball and let the tight end go get it. Everyone knows the hawks can’t run the ball on short yardage or in the red zone.

 

[DarkVictory23]

I don’t run an outside run on 4th and short for sure. Play action? QB sneak? I have less of a problem with going for it than the play call itself.

I personally kick the fg, but going for it isn’t so disastrously bad considering you still lose on a touchdown.

I'm fundamentally against the decision to go for it, regardless of the play call, because it puts us in a high leverage situation that increases the pressure on our defense unnecessarily.

I think we keep putting in our team in situations to fail and I don't think any possible momentum we get from succeeding is worth the damage we continually do to ourselves when we fail.

I mean, I'm also fundamentally against the play calls, yeah. Why did we run 2 straight plays if we were going to go for it on 4th? Like, for all the crap people LOVE to say about Geno, pretty much everyone and their mother--whether they admit it or not--knows our offense pretty much relies on him to carry it.

So, at least on third down, why aren't we doing a screen or a play action? Why aren't we giving Geno a chance to get them to jump offsides (which he did a billion times this game)? So, yeah, the play calls were terrible.

But I also just disagree with the decision philosophically.

 

[SonicHawk]

I'm fundamentally against the decision to go for it, regardless of the play call, because it puts us in a high leverage situation that increases the pressure on our defense unnecessarily.

I think we keep putting in our team in situations to fail and I don't think any possible momentum we get from succeeding is worth the damage we continually do to ourselves when we fail.

I mean, I'm also fundamentally against the play calls, yeah. Why did we run 2 straight plays if we were going to go for it on 4th? Like, for all the crap people LOVE to say about Geno, pretty much everyone and their mother--whether they admit it or not--knows our offense pretty much relies on him to carry it.

So, at least on third down, why aren't we doing a screen or a play action? Why aren't we giving Geno a chance to get them to jump offsides (which he did a billion times this game)? So, yeah, the play calls were terrible.

But I also just disagree with the decision philosophically.

So 4th down -- worst case probably is a turnover on downs, they get the ball at the 20 and need to move it 40+ yards to win. You have a chance at putting yourself in position to win the game. If you kick a field goal, they get the ball slightly better position and once again need 40 yards to tie (or win on a TD).

No matter what, Rams need at least 40 yards to kick an either game-winning or game-tying FG and you're 1/2 yard away from giving yourself a chance at ending the game.

Seattle has given up an offensive score in 37% of their drives (coming into the game). You should feel confident in your offense getting .5 yards.

I genuinely think it's nearer a 50/50 to go for it. I did some math.

Odds of gaining 1 yard: 65%
Odds of scoring a TD from the 15: 50%
Odds of scoring from the 15: 88%
Odds of scoring a FG from the 15: 38%

32.5% chance of ending the game immediately
15.5% chance of winning game on next drive stopping the rams after scoring a FG after 4th down conversion
Total of 48% chance of winning going for it on 4th.

Odds of making 4th down FG: 92%
Odds of stopping the Rams from scoring: 63%

57% chance of winning with a FG on 4th down

So yes, statistically speaking, kicking a FG on 4th down is the right move. But it's not such a gap that it's egregious.

 

[NoGain]

I was completely fine with going for it on 4th down. We were trying to put the game away. I was disappointed that we didn't try something different on 3rd down. They were stacking it up front for a run as if the game was on the line that play. We should have tried a short mis-direction type pass there, like Andy Reid would have.

If you can't get a damn yard on two attempts when it counts, you don't deserve to win.

 

[DarkVictory23]

So 4th down -- worst case probably is a turnover on downs, they get the ball at the 20 and need to move it 40+ yards to win. You have a chance at putting yourself in position to win the game. If you kick a field goal, they get the ball slightly better position and once again need 40 yards to tie (or win on a TD).

No matter what, Rams need at least 40 yards to kick an either game-winning or game-tying FG and you're 1/2 yard away from giving yourself a chance at ending the game.

Seattle has given up an offensive score in 37% of their drives (coming into the game). You should feel confident in your offense getting .5 yards.

I genuinely think it's nearer a 50/50 to go for it. I did some math.

Odds of gaining 1 yard: 65%
Odds of scoring a TD from the 15: 50%
Odds of scoring from the 15: 88%
Odds of scoring a FG from the 15: 38%

32.5% chance of ending the game immediately
15.5% chance of winning game on next drive stopping the rams after scoring a FG after 4th down conversion
Total of 48% chance of winning going for it on 4th.

Odds of making 4th down FG: 92%
Odds of stopping the Rams from scoring: 63%

57% chance of winning with a FG on 4th down

So yes, statistically speaking, kicking a FG on 4th down is the right move. But it's not such a gap that it's egregious.

Like I said, my issue is philosophical, not analytical. (Though, as your own analytics show, that was probably the wrong move even from that perspective.)

The key here is that we should not be confident in our offense gaining 1/2 yard. Our average yards gained on 4th and short is -1.63. In these do-or-die situations, our offensive line struggles mightily in general.

But beyond that, our offense was having a rough game. Our defense was having one of their best of the year. So why are we choosing to put the game into the hands of the offense in that moment instead of trusting our defense?

If I was making this decision, just looking at our season as a whole? I'm kicking the FG.
If I'm making the decision considering this game and who's hands I think has been more reliable this game? I'm also still kicking the FG.

 

[BGHawk]

Boring, predictable, uninspiring, embarrassing, maddening, deflating..just a few words to describe the Seattle Seahawks this year.

 

[hedgehawk]

Boring, predictable, uninspiring, embarrassing, maddening, deflating..just a few words to describe the Seattle Seahawks this year.

We weren’t expecting to be good though. I thought MM would bring something though, even if I didn’t like getting rid of PC. It’s just the same shit we’ve seen for years. My dagger is towards JS. I think he’s a fraud.

 

[knownone]

I still can't understand the decision. A) Why are we running out of shotgun on 3rd down? B) We're one of the worst short-yardage teams in the NFL, lining up on 4th in a formation that we almost only run the ball out of. So the Rams knew precisely what we were doing.

I understand what MM was saying: good teams can get a yard. But let's be honest. Good coaching is putting your guys in a position to succeed. Run a naked boot. Play action. Kick the FG. Don't rely on your greatest weakness when the game is on the line.

 

[keasley45]

So 4th down -- worst case probably is a turnover on downs, they get the ball at the 20 and need to move it 40+ yards to win. You have a chance at putting yourself in position to win the game. If you kick a field goal, they get the ball slightly better position and once again need 40 yards to tie (or win on a TD).

No matter what, Rams need at least 40 yards to kick an either game-winning or game-tying FG and you're 1/2 yard away from giving yourself a chance at ending the game.

Seattle has given up an offensive score in 37% of their drives (coming into the game). You should feel confident in your offense getting .5 yards.

I genuinely think it's nearer a 50/50 to go for it. I did some math.

Odds of gaining 1 yard: 65%
Odds of scoring a TD from the 15: 50%
Odds of scoring from the 15: 88%
Odds of scoring a FG from the 15: 38%

32.5% chance of ending the game immediately
15.5% chance of winning game on next drive stopping the rams after scoring a FG after 4th down conversion
Total of 48% chance of winning going for it on 4th.

Odds of making 4th down FG: 92%
Odds of stopping the Rams from scoring: 63%

57% chance of winning with a FG on 4th down

So yes, statistically speaking, kicking a FG on 4th down is the right move. But it's not such a gap that it's egregious.

I agree with your bottom line, but how do you get 65% odds of picking up a yard when we havent shown evidence we can do it all season?? You give 65% odds to a running game thats near last in the league, and in the hands of a play caller that has shown he has little creativity in the run game. Its been talked about week in and week out. - we dont have a realiable running game or running scheme. But in that game, in that situation, you are going to bet on that aspect of the offense?

Where is the math that puts the odds of scoring a TD from the 15 higher than making a fieldgoal from the same spot? Meyers is 7-8 on the season inside 50 yards and 3-5 at 50+ with a long of 59. The dude also has quite a few game winning and game tying kicks on his resume.

And we had held the Rams in check for the vast majority of the game. They had one solid drive to start the 2nd half, one on the first half and were only on par with us because their defense scored a TD. The D put up a good number of 3 and outs and looked like anything but a unit that was going to roll over and surrender. Considering they bucked just about every negative trend they'd put on paper coming into the game, it isnt exactly good science to use play from before the game to justify NOT leaning on them.

 

[Hawkpower]

So 4th down -- worst case probably is a turnover on downs, they get the ball at the 20 and need to move it 40+ yards to win. You have a chance at putting yourself in position to win the game. If you kick a field goal, they get the ball slightly better position and once again need 40 yards to tie (or win on a TD).

No matter what, Rams need at least 40 yards to kick an either game-winning or game-tying FG and you're 1/2 yard away from giving yourself a chance at ending the game.

Seattle has given up an offensive score in 37% of their drives (coming into the game). You should feel confident in your offense getting .5 yards.

I genuinely think it's nearer a 50/50 to go for it. I did some math.

Odds of gaining 1 yard: 65%
Odds of scoring a TD from the 15: 50%
Odds of scoring from the 15: 88%
Odds of scoring a FG from the 15: 38%

32.5% chance of ending the game immediately
15.5% chance of winning game on next drive stopping the rams after scoring a FG after 4th down conversion
Total of 48% chance of winning going for it on 4th.

Odds of making 4th down FG: 92%
Odds of stopping the Rams from scoring: 63%

57% chance of winning with a FG on 4th down

So yes, statistically speaking, kicking a FG on 4th down is the right move. But it's not such a gap that it's egregious.

Odds of hitting a field goal from the 15 is 38%?

I must be misunderstanding this....

 

[pittpnthrs]

One yard? It should always be a QB sneak. Always. Even if its not, i'm not handing it to Walker. ZC everytime.

 

[SonicHawk]

I agree with your bottom line, but how do you get 65% odds of picking up a yard when we havent shown evidence we can do it all season?? You give 65% odds to a running game thats near last in the league, and in the hands of a play caller that has shown he has little creativity in the run game. Its been talked about week in and week out. - we dont have a realiable running game or running scheme. But in that game, in that situation, you are going to bet on that aspect of the offense?

I ran with numbers of the more general NFL -- the Seahawks aren't so inept that average 4th and 1 success rate doesn't apply. The play itself was horrid. I also wouldn't bet on that part of the game, I just think the idea of going for it on 4th and 1 wasn't a horrible move.

Where is the math that puts the odds of scoring a TD from the 15 higher than making a fieldgoal from the same spot? Meyers is 7-8 on the season inside 50 yards and 3-5 at 50+ with a long of 59. The dude also has quite a few game winning and game tying kicks on his resume.

I also went with general NFL numbers of scoring rates from the 15 (td and scoring rates). Meyers is also about 92% from 30-40 yards in his career. It was pretty likely that if we got the first down we would score, but not impossible to have a TO/blocked field goal/shank.

And we had held the Rams in check for the vast majority of the game. They had one solid drive to start the 2nd half, one on the first half and were only on par with us because their defense scored a TD. The D put up a good number of 3 and outs and looked like anything but a unit that was going to roll over and surrender. Considering they bucked just about every negative trend they'd put on paper coming into the game, it isnt exactly good science to use play from before the game to justify NOT leaning on them.

I think the subsequent drive by the Rams shows you why you think of ending the game immediately. Rams without Puka is not as good, but the Seahawks have not been good at preventing teams from scoring no matter how some of the game has gone. But also, you don't get the 4th down, the Rams still have to drive 40 yards to win and you need your defense to pick you up.

The end of this game was littered with failures. Horrible play calling on 3rd and 4th down, Riq not stepping up to the INT, the collapse of the secondary and the inability to get pressure on Stafford.

I'm not here to defend anything, just that the idea of going for it on 4th and 1 wasn't a horrible idea.

 

[SonicHawk]

Odds of hitting a field goal from the 15 is 38%?

I must be misunderstanding this....

Yeah, I went back and forth on how to display this -- 38% of outcomes from the 15 are FGs, not 38% of field goals from the 15 are made. A whole lot of TDs are scored from the 15 (88% total scoring).

 

[NY Hawk]

This team showed me who they were when they loss to the Giants. I have to deal with this crap living here in NY.

 

[Appyhawk]

I mean, we were in the red zone: are you going to let Geno throw it? It was kind of an impossible choice.

Bingo. I like Geno, but he has a problem in compressed areas of the field. I call it a 'red zone rash'. He also gets it when backed up inside our own 20. In those areas he just seems not to have the ingredients needed to produce the cookie we're after. His skillset is very much like Russ in that he can definitely throw a beautiful long ball, but lacks the ingredients for a good short game. He is taller that Russ but still tries to throw it through oncoming linemen.
IMO Geno and Howell are cookies from the same batch, they were just baked at different times. Someone threw garlic in that cookie recipe and no amount of sugar can remove it.
The plus that Howell has is his price tag. He can do what Geno does but for a lot less money.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I wanted them to go for it, but the play call itself. I can see the other side that wanted them to take the 3 and play defense etc. Just so f'ing pissed right now, I need a time out. Oh wait, the Bye. Cool.

Do a damn QB sneak on 3rd down or run it up the gut. AND NOT from the f'ing shotgun. Maddening. Between the ridiculous one sided calls helping the Lambs out every damn time, seemingly, that we got a big 3rd down stop.......and then Geno throwing picks right to guys.......another game handed away. They had no business losing yesterday. The Rams are nothing special, period. Hawks gave that game away.

 

[Appyhawk]

Boring, predictable, uninspiring, embarrassing, maddening, deflating..just a few words to describe the Seattle Seahawks this year.

Nope, not boring. If the Seahawks did one thing yesterday they succeeded in making an exciting game out of what looked like a hopeless situation. It just didn't turn out like we wanted it to in the end.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Boring? Nope. That was a good battle all day. We just saw them give the game away, again. Also, it was nice to see the noise back, it got damn loud after we tied it up. While I wanted them to go for it on 4th down, I can see why some wanted them to just take the points. That place was rockin at that point. Would have been interesting to see if we could have kept them out of the end zone.

 

[keasley45]

Boring? Nope. That was a good battle all day. We just saw them give the game away, again. Also, it was nice to see the noise back, it got damn loud after we tied it up. While I wanted them to go for it on 4th down, I can see why some wanted them to just take the points. That place was rockin at that point. Would have been interesting to see if we could have kept them out of the end zone.

Agree. The game comes at a good time. From a mental prep perspective for the rest of the season, they have 8 games to go and despite the loss, have played there best ball in 2 of the last 3 with the loss sunday showing the most promise, despite the mistakes.

After the break, we will have Nwosu, Lucas and DK back and will have had the benefit of letting all thats transpired over the season settle in, time to work on playing solid ball, and developing a good bit of rage over how they've let games get away from them.

This could setup like the 86 Hawks season where we started fast, then slumped, losing 5 of 6, only to finish the last 5 weeks undefeated. The finish was one of the best that year and made us the most feared team in the league, only to have us miss out on the post season by a tie breaker. I remember talk that year being that if we made the postseason, we could run the table.

Not saying this team is a carbon copy, but i would love to see what we can do with a healthy roster, Lucas back, another 2 weeks to gel and some fire and urgency in the belly. As unfortunate as the season has been, the team still has a realistic chance to win the division if they start the 2nd half with a win at the 9ers.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Just show some improvement the final 8 games, that's all I ask. Playoffs? Nah, not even in my thought process now. When we were 3-0, absolutely. But this isn't a playoff caliber team. Yet.