Seahawks Vegas 2022 NFL Win Total - 5 1/2... Over or Under folks?

Welshers

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The line for the Seahawks win this upcoming season, in Vegas, is 5 1/2 wins. Shows what a the consensus is on this football team without a QB. I'm not a gambling man and I don't forsee a great season, but that's a bet I would definitely think about taking... I think this can be a 6 win team.

What would you guys take?
 

pittpnthrs

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Line is about right. Flip of a coin. Could be maybe a game better or a game or two worse.
 

BleuEyedHawk

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As another non-bettor, I won't put money on it, but I'm thinking positve and going with 8 wins.

As long as we win against Denver.
 

onanygivensunday

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Considering that we were last in our division last year, coupled with the fact that we play the AFCW, which is likely the strongest division in the NFL, and that we also play against Tampa Bay and the Saints from the NFCS, I'd take the under if I were placing the bet.

Five wins seems about right and should net us a Top 5 pick next year.
 
OP
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Welshers

Welshers

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Considering that we were last in our division last year, coupled with the fact that we play the AFCW, which is likely the strongest division in the NFL, and that we also play against Tampa Bay and the Saints from the NFCS, I'd take the under if I were placing the bet.

Five wins seems about right and should net us a Top 5 pick next year.
They can find 6
 

Sports Hernia

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I think Vegas nailed this line. This team is a 5 or 6 win team. 2 of those wins will be against Santa Clara though. :cool:(y)
 

Anajimmc

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Odds are as much about outcome as they are about getting the losers to pay the winners. If the betting skews in one direction or the other the number will change. So right now, Vegas thinks setting the O/U at 5 1/2 will get half the money on the over and half on the under.
 

Mase

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I’ll take 8. I believe in coaching. This assumes Lock wins the job and not Smith. I am not saying Smith can’t make big positive plays, but he is just snake bit with the epic fatal play.
With him we win 6, if Lock wins the job, we can get to 8

Mase
 

Rainger

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The line for the Seahawks win this upcoming season, in Vegas, is 5 1/2 wins. Shows what a the consensus is on this football team without a QB. I'm not a gambling man and I don't forsee a great season, but that's a bet I would definitely think about taking... I think this can be a 6 win team.

What would you guys take?
8 and 9 Book it! Or possibly better. Take the over and make some money. The line is ALWAYS negative on the Hawks over the years.
 

AgentDib

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That spread feels low to me but I'll never recommend betting against Vegas. The best way to ensure that the money is split is to pick a fair line and they are statistically extremely good at it. The mean of our distribution of wins is 5-6 at this point in the off-season.

Of course that also doesn't mean that we are going to win 5 or 6 games. There's a lot of uncertainty in the NFL anyway, but even more so for our team playing a tough schedule with a lot of unknowns and new schemes. Our distribution has a fat tail and 10 wins is unlikely but far from impossible.

Reid rolled with Kevin Kolb once upon a time. Belichick rolled with a past-prime Cam.
And Bill Walsh was 2-14 starting DeBerg. Hell, Don Shula was 6-10 starting Dan Marino in his prime for 16 games.
 

Scout

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This team is capable of winning 7-8 games over a 17 game season.
 

flv2

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Odds are as much about outcome as they are about getting the losers to pay the winners. If the betting skews in one direction or the other the number will change. So right now, Vegas thinks setting the O/U at 5 1/2 will get half the money on the over and half on the under.
Yes and no, but when it comes to NFL team win totals it's more no than yes. The basic theory is correct but 75-80% of the money is wagered on Overs with only 20-25% on Unders. Consequently Sportsbooks will set the lines on a 272 game season with the total wins between 276 and 279. They will also generally offer shorter prices on Overs than on the Unders. This market is also set to a higher book price, (expected average profit margin per bet), than would be expected on a normal 2 outcome event. Essentially you'd expect a game spread to be -110 on either side whereas here you'll see -115 on either side. Factor in the shorter Overs price and the average will be nearer -118 on Overs and -112 on Unders.
For general information Sportsbooks aren't concerned with stakes on either side, they're looking at the liabilities.
 

RiverDog

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Odds are as much about outcome as they are about getting the losers to pay the winners. If the betting skews in one direction or the other the number will change. So right now, Vegas thinks setting the O/U at 5 1/2 will get half the money on the over and half on the under.
This is correct. And as the bets start coming in, the bookies will adjust the O/U to reflect actual betting. If there's more bets on our winning more than 5 games, they'll raise the O/U to 6.5 wins to encourage more bets on under.

The bookies object is to even out the bets in order to reduce the risk of their losing money on any given outcome. They make their money by taking 5% of all bets, not on correctly predicting what the outcome will be.

There's also the factor of casual bettors laying down money on their team no matter what the O/U or odds are. They'll simply toss down a $100 bill just for the hell of it, a nice little reward if their team happens to win. Consequently, a team with a large fan base, like the Cowboys, will have inflated odds in order to compensate for this effect. If you were to take the state of Texas out of the equation, their O/U would be at least one game less than actual.
 

jammerhawk

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OK, Vegas says the team will not be good.

They weren’t that good with a ‘Franchise QB’ last season either and have been tailing off for a few seasons as well with that guy under centre.

W/o Wilson it is easy to see the team being worse, but it is possible they will not be. Rebuilding is something that has to be done periodically even with great teams.

The Hawks have had a number of unproductive drafts where they haven’t added quality young blood or those guys have simply been unhealthy and unable to play, doubly hurting the team by getting paid for not playing. All this time the team had a cap anchor with Wilson who was disinterested in playing the way the staff wanted him to play.

The changes will be interesting to watch and could potentially be a whole lot more productive than the ‘experts’ allow.

The patience allowed unhealthy players may be less charitable going forward and few may be simply beaten out by those who can show up and play.

This draft and the significant cap reorganization the team is undergoing this season bodes well for those prepared to show some patience. We need to allow things to play out before annointing the team with suckitude. I predict things will look different and they won’t be as bad as the reliable and consistent ‘Nellies’ around here predict, while continuing their 'Jn’P are horrible' refrain.

I am taking the over, and am looking forward to watching a team that will need to depend upon all of itself to win.
 
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