Power Rankings
Week 4
1. Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota finally takes the top spot. One of only two unbeaten teams remaining and the one that has looked the best in their games. I'll remind again that while Minny is doing just fine behind Sam Darnold, they are actually ranked higher defensively (#2).
2. New Orleans Saints: Ok, yeah, I had to do a double take to make sure this was right. The Saints, losers of two straight, are still number 2. Despite the fact that they would be on the outside looking in if the playoffs started today, they are still the only team that is rated top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency as their first two games were SO dominant that they still have the exact same point differential as the undefeated Vikings. This game coming up against the Chiefs is going to be a big one for this squad.
3. Buffalo Bills: Buffalo was riding high in the top spot last week, but the Baltimore Ravens brought them back down to earth. Going into that game, the Bills had the #1 ranked offense but dropped 3 spots after that extremely lackluster performance.
4. Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs finally crack back into the top 5... and I still don't know what to make of these guys. That was another game that looked for all the world like they were going to lose and instead, they don't. Mahomes has looked downright pedestrian this year and his most significant play this game was injuring his own #1 WR (quite possibly for the season), and they still win. They have New Orleans coming up and if they beat those guys, then I'll just have to give up trying to understand this team.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh's offense still rates as just 'average' which after last year is something they'll take, but their defense still rates in the top 5, even after getting beat up by both Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco.
6. Seattle Seahawks: That game knocked the Seahawks out of the top 5 (by one spot), but we actually didn't drop our overall defensive ranking by as much as you might think. (#7, down from 4.) Our offensive ranking went up a bit to compensate and we are still leading our division.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay jumps 4 spots into the top 10, thanks in part to their increased standing due to the second consecutive loss by the Saints.
8. Detroit Lions: An interesting swing for the Lions: They came into the week rated #14 on offense, #10 on defense. That high scoring affair against us now has them ranked #10 on offense, #14 on defense. Unfortunately for them, they are in the same division as the #1 rated Vikings, so they would still be a wild card team as of now.
9. New York Jets: So, Aaron Rodgers looked mid in week 1 and 2, really good in week 3, and like complete garbage in week 4. Got all that? As of right now, the Jets still have a very below average offense, but their defense is still performing well. Things don't get easier for NY, as they take on the undefeated Vikings next week, live from London.
10. San Francisco 49ers: While they aren't the far and away #1 offense like they were last year, even with all the injuries, the Niners have still been a top 5 offensive unit. Where they've slipped a bunch has been in defense, but they used their chance to beat up on the Patriots bottom 5 offense to get their defensive ranking back up to 'average'.
11. Baltimore Ravens: Ok, look: I crapped on the Ravens earlier this year. They were 0-2 and their defensive ranking fell off a cliff. Now, 2 games later, they are 2-2 and... their defense still kind of sucks to this point of the year (missing Mike Mac, perhaps?). But with Henry and Jackson starting to click, their offense has jumped to just outside the top 5 and every undersized defensive front in the league is probably scared as hell at the prospect of taking on that tandem.
12. Los Angeles Chargers
13. Washington Commanders
14. Green Bay Packers
15. Houston Texans
16. Indianapolis Colts
17. Chicago Bears
18. Denver Broncos: Despite getting another victory, Denver slipped down the rankings due to their abysmal offensive performance. They have the #3 rated defense right now... but also the third worst offense. Add in the fact that they are in the same division as the undefeated Chiefs and the higher rated Chargers, Denver has to figure out something to help Bo Nix generate any kind of offensive production if they want to stay in the mix this year.
19. Dallas Cowboys
20. Tennessee Titans
21. Cincinnati Bengals
22. Arizona Cardinals: Cardinals just dropped a poop-ton of spots this week. Their offense still rates in the top 10, but defensively they are way towards the bottom of the league. Now that SF has won another game, that just puts Arizona even further behind the 8-ball.
23. Atlanta Falcons
24. Las Vegas Raiders
25. Philadelphia Eagles
26. Cleveland Browns
27. New York Giants: Our next opponent. These guys... suck. While being as undermanned as we were was a recipe for disaster against Detroit, the fact is, New York is not the team you need to rush all your guys back for. This won't be close to the highest rated defense we've faced and where Detroit was one of the best rushing teams in the league (so losing basically your entire front 7 is really, really bad) the Giants are one of the WORST rushing teams in the league. Obviously, I don't want to see Trevis Gipson or Quinton Bohanna getting significant snaps for our team ever again, but this is the perfect 'get right' opponent for us.
28. Los Angeles Rams: Rams are terrible right now. (I know, I'm sad about it, too.) They have the 2nd worst defense in the league, behind only the Commanders. But, unlike the Commanders who have the number one ranked offense in the league, Rams have only a league average offense. They have to be considered heavy underdogs against Green Bay this weekend and if they lose that one, the Rams are going to have some serious questions to ask themselves going into their bye in Week 6.
29. New England Patriots: Patriots are no longer the worst offense in football, but that's not really because they got better, just multiple other teams did worse.
30. Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins, however, ARE the worst offense in football.
31. Carolina Panthers
32. Jacksonville Jaguars: Is it Doug Pederson? Is Trevor Lawrence a bust? Whatever it is, these guys are both the 4th worst offense in the league AND the 4th worst defense in the league (no other team is that bad on both sides of the ball) to go along with also being the only winless team left.
Methodology: Each ranking is based on standing (in particular, the team's position in a 'if the playoffs started today' situation), offensive efficiency (average points scored per drive as well as rate of drives which end in a score), and defensive efficiency (average points surrendered per drive as well as rate of opposing teams scoring). Each metric counts for one third of the score.
Offensive and Defensive efficiency are no longer consider 2023 performance now that we are a quarter into this year, so all these rankings are how teams are doing so far this season.
Obviously, with only 4 games, each game can have an outsize influence on their rankings, so being super dominant in two games like the Saints have been can really swing the score, but as we go forward, each individual game will matter less and less and thus your standing starts to become even more important.
