The odds of getting a yard are good when we have one of the worst running games in the league???
At what point this year have we been good at getting a yard??
You cant just decide that 'now we are a good team and should be able to get it' in a game like this with so much ob the line.
And in what other game when Meyers had missed an extra point did we NOT give him a chance to kick a gane winner, or game tying kick?
Answer? NEVER.
But NOW all of a sudden, Meyers cant be trusted? That's nonsense and not even the logic Mike cited in explaining his decision.
He just wanted to pull a power move and put the game away on that drive. He pushed his chips in on an 'attitude' play based on emotion rather than playing the smart strategy.
The odds of getting a yard (or more like half a yard) are good EVEN with one of the worst running teams in the league. We have averages 4.1 yds per carry this season compared with a league average 4.5 so the difference isn't huge. Historically 2 pt conversion attempts are about 49% successful and for those the defence only have to cover the end zone, in a 4th and 2 the defence have to be aware the offence might go for a pass with a screen pass option to get the first down and a WR heading downfield for the TD so an average team should comple a 4 and 2 more than 50% of the time.
If the odds of an average team getting 2 yds is over 50% the odds of a team 10% below average getting 1 yard is significantly more than 50%.
If our run offence was average we should have gone for the 2 point conversion at the end of regulation but because it is poor it was the correct decision to kick the PAT, but on 4th and a half even with our run game the correct decision was to go for it.
Regarding the kick not being a guarantee I am not saying Myers shouldn't be trusted just that you can never assume that if we had made the other option it would be guaranteed successful. If it is early in the game and you ar ejust trying to maximise points you might be comparing a 98% chance of a PAT against a 49% chance of making 2.
With the decision on 4th and a half it is more complex, getting two yards doesn't guarantee a TD, you need to consider the risk of a turnover against the chances of a TD. Even getting stopped later (either via turnover or FG) there would be less time on the clock reducing the odds of the Rams getting downfield.