hiring a college OC may have been a mistake...

[toffee]

Let’s say John Schneider has under valued offensive lineman for years. He doesn’t have the players on the line

True, so Hawks offense 2023 suffered the same poor OL under an OC that just got fired by the Bears, but Hawks offense 2023 were at least as good if not better than 2024.

 

[Chukarhawk]

Thanks for posting this.

Its easy to blame the O line entirely for our worst, or say Geno just isnt great. Truth of the matter is our entire offense, depsite how electric it can be, is operating in a one dimensional fashion. And our play calls, our lack or a run game, our scheme across the o-line... those things are the primary reason we are struggling.

Geno is putting up really solid numbers despite being challenges more than helped but Grubbs scheme and Huffs line philosophy.

Either it shifts now coming out of the bye, or we can expect the rest of the season to be more of the same, or worse.

There's only so much we can run in the limited sets we do without a viable run game or strategy to put the o line in a better position to succeed.

Schlereth is exactly right. The o line is being handicapped by Grubbs style. The constant reliance on shotgun places undue pressure on the one position we are most vulnerable - Tackle.

We dont fix it and the tight windows Geno threads will get smaller and the league leading pressure rate we are giving up will continue.

Wonder if Mark would ever consider coaching...

there's in no difference from last year to this year. the O line sucked last year. Do they need to run more play action? Yes. Do they need to get up under center more, probably. Let's see what changes now that Lucas is back.

 

[keasley45]

there's in no difference from last year to this year. the O line sucked last year. Do they need to run more play action? Yes. Do they need to get up under center more, probably. Let's see what changes now that Lucas is back.

That's because between Waldron and Dickerson, we didnt have great coaching or scheming then either.

But i do think Lucas can change things considerably along the line, and not just at his position.

If i were the Hawks and Abe is back and 100% for the rest of the season, i'd stick Williams at RG and put Olu in at Center. Let Williams make the line calls and Olu learn on the job - groom Olu for the future, fixes the RG issue, fixes the errant snap issues, and sets up the right side to be a strength.

 

[FrodosFinger]

It’s a top 10 ranked offense and we still have 8 games left. We have 3 issues holding this team back…
1: Turnovers by G Smith. He has a knack for kicking our momentum in the nutts and handing it to the other team
2: Penalties. Again lead the league in this embarrassing category
3: Run defense. Until they acquire another weak side backer that can contain and stuff run they will struggle due to absence of Nwosu

 

[Spin Doctor]

The biggest thing this season is piss poor interior lineman play. Our offensive line acquisitions in the FA have all been major busts. We lost Lewis, who was our most consistent guard and best runblocker. We had a better line last season, hands down. Now we can't even runblock well.

 

[DarkVictory23]

The lack of play action is a symptom of our real illness; an inability to run the ball effectively. Play action only works if the opponents take the threat of a run seriously, and so far they haven't.

See, this is the thing: It really doesn't. Play action generally works regardless of how well or how often you run the ball. As you pointed out, Geno was actually an elite play action passer last year and we were still one of the 5 most pass happy teams, one of the top 10 teams most likely to get stuffed when we did run, and had only a good-but-not-particularly great success rate on rushing plays in general. And yet, play action still worked for us.

It's an interesting thought, but I don't think that operating out of the shotgun is the real culprit. First of all, the use of shotgun has gone up every year in the NFL. Jared Goff operates one of the most successful offenses in the NFL and he's in the shotgun 75% of the time. As the article points out, there are also advantages to using the shotgun.

It's not about Shotgun vs. not, it's about how predictable our pocket is. Sure, Goff runs a lot of plays from Shotgun but the Lions also use the highest rate of play action in the league.

We pass all the time, from shotgun all the time, with no play action all the time. And as Kayvon Thibodeaux happily explains in the new Microsoft Surface ad, that means defenses know exactly where our QB is going to be all the time. It's a recipe for disaster.

I'm skeptical this has much of anything to do with our offense stuttering at times. Are the 11 picks because of shotgun? Is the run blocking because of shotgun? It doesn't limit you as much as people think when scheming plays and pre-snap looks. I would like to see a little more play action but not convinced this is really a negative in and of itself. Macdonald did say we might do a little more under center work moving forward though.

Are the 11 picks a direct result of running out of shotgun? No, but I'll bet our league worst average time to pressure (2.51 seconds) had a role to play in them. There is literally only one starting QB in the league (Tagovailoa who basically runs a completely rhythm timed offense) who has an average time to throw below that threshold.

This is a completely unsustainable level of pressure we're giving up and part of why we give it up so easily is we do nothing to make the front 7 of the defense give a second thought about what the play is (pass) and where the QB is going to be when it happens (in shotgun, no play action).

Our offensive line was bad last year, too. Our Pass Block Win Rate was atrocious. And yet, we didn't give up pressure nearly as fast last year as this. I don't buy that this is all talent related.

 

[KinesProf]

I hope it isn't the case; but there is a non-zero chance the Grubb and Huff just aren't NFL calibre coaches. I hope not though.

But there is something to be said for the baseline floor of pure NFL-level mediocrity offered up my coaches like Bevell, Schotty, and Solari.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Behind one of the worst O Lines in team history, kind of hard to be all you can be as a coordinator, imo.

 

[Ozzy]

See, this is the thing: It really doesn't. Play action generally works regardless of how well or how often you run the ball. As you pointed out, Geno was actually an elite play action passer last year and we were still one of the 5 most pass happy teams, one of the top 10 teams most likely to get stuffed when we did run, and had only a good-but-not-particularly great success rate on rushing plays in general. And yet, play action still worked for us.


It's not about Shotgun vs. not, it's about how predictable our pocket is. Sure, Goff runs a lot of plays from Shotgun but the Lions also use the highest rate of play action in the league.

We pass all the time, from shotgun all the time, with no play action all the time. And as Kayvon Thibodeaux happily explains in the new Microsoft Surface ad, that means defenses know exactly where our QB is going to be all the time. It's a recipe for disaster.


Are the 11 picks a direct result of running out of shotgun? No, but I'll bet our league worst average time to pressure (2.51 seconds) had a role to play in them. There is literally only one starting QB in the league (Tagovailoa who basically runs a completely rhythm timed offense) who has an average time to throw below that threshold.

This is a completely unsustainable level of pressure we're giving up and part of why we give it up so easily is we do nothing to make the front 7 of the defense give a second thought about what the play is (pass) and where the QB is going to be when it happens (in shotgun, no play action).

Our offensive line was bad last year, too. Our Pass Block Win Rate was atrocious. And yet, we didn't give up pressure nearly as fast last year as this. I don't buy that this is all talent related.

Geno leads the league by a lot in turnover worthy throws. A lot of teams are dealing with terrible line play including some being worse than ours so it can’t be an excuse every time I’m defense of Geno. I agree with a lot of what you’re saying though I just split when it comes to Geno carrying some of the blame.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Geno leads the league by a lot in turnover worthy throws. A lot of teams are dealing with terrible line play including some being worse than ours so it can’t be an excuse every time I’m defense of Geno. I agree with a lot of what you’re saying though I just split when it comes to Geno carrying some of the blame.

So, you took that entire post, which was about our OC and our scheme--you know, the actual subject of this thread--and the most important point for you was to make sure Geno gets what you think is the right amount of blame? Who even said Geno doesn't deserve any blame that you are 'splitting' with?

I mean, on your point about Geno, if he does lead the league in 'turnover worthy' throws (and I doubt that), it's probably because he leads the league in any kind of throw. Going into week 10, Geno had a better than average turnover worthy throw rate per PFF (and he didn't play this week). Meanwhile, he's actually got the second lowest 'bad throw %' in the league and the third highest on target %. So, if he's actually NOT throwing that many turnover worthy throws, he's not throwing that many bad throws, and he's actually one of the most accurate QBs in the league... why are we having such a problem with our offense?

And yes, indeed there are some teams with worse O-Line play than us... but NONE that give up pressure faster than ours. So how are we giving up pressure faster than anyone else if our O-Line isn't actually the worst? "I'll take 'What is Play Calling' for $600, Alex..."


Look, if the problem really is Geno, then why are you not questioning why our offensive coordinator does nothing but have Geno throw the ball from the exact same spot all game long? If the problem really is our offensive line just isn't talented enough, then again, why are we putting them on an island for long developing plays from shotgun with no variety to help slow down the pass rush?

Again, we had a bad O-Line last year, a poor running game last year, the same QB, most of the same skill players, and an offensive coordinator who just got fired from his new team... and yet we have a much less efficient offense this year. Maybe... just maybe... it's the new OC and his scheme?

 

[AgentDib]

See, this is the thing: It really doesn't. Play action generally works regardless of how well or how often you run the ball. As you pointed out, Geno was actually an elite play action passer last year and we were still one of the 5 most pass happy teams, one of the top 10 teams most likely to get stuffed when we did run, and had only a good-but-not-particularly great success rate on rushing plays in general. And yet, play action still worked for us.

In my view it's not about how much you actually run the ball, but whether opposing defenses have to respect you running the ball. Rushing success rate is probably the right stat to look at vs. YPA which is influenced by breakaway runs or rushing totals which depend on volume. Do you agree with that?

I hope it isn't the case; but there is a non-zero chance the Grubb and Huff just aren't NFL calibre coaches. I hope not though.

But there is something to be said for the baseline floor of pure NFL-level mediocrity offered up my coaches like Bevell, Schotty, and Solari.

This gets into risk tolerance which is fascinating in regards to NFL long-term team strategy. Do we have the talent to win Super Bowls with acceptable coaching, or do we need to keep playing the lottery looking for the next big thing? In my view, even if you find the next big thing it is quickly adopted league wide, and so prioritizing leadership and management qualities is the better choice.

 

[Chukarhawk]

So, you took that entire post, which was about our OC and our scheme--you know, the actual subject of this thread--and the most important point for you was to make sure Geno gets what you think is the right amount of blame? Who even said Geno doesn't deserve any blame that you are 'splitting' with?

I mean, on your point about Geno, if he does lead the league in 'turnover worthy' throws (and I doubt that), it's probably because he leads the league in any kind of throw. Going into week 10, Geno had a better than average turnover worthy throw rate per PFF (and he didn't play this week). Meanwhile, he's actually got the second lowest 'bad throw %' in the league and the third highest on target %. So, if he's actually NOT throwing that many turnover worthy throws, he's not throwing that many bad throws, and he's actually one of the most accurate QBs in the league... why are we having such a problem with our offense?

And yes, indeed there are some teams with worse O-Line play than us... but NONE that give up pressure faster than ours. So how are we giving up pressure faster than anyone else if our O-Line isn't actually the worst? "I'll take 'What is Play Calling' for $600, Alex..."


Look, if the problem really is Geno, then why are you not questioning why our offensive coordinator does nothing but have Geno throw the ball from the exact same spot all game long? If the problem really is our offensive line just isn't talented enough, then again, why are we putting them on an island for long developing plays from shotgun with no variety to help slow down the pass rush?

Again, we had a bad O-Line last year, a poor running game last year, the same QB, most of the same skill players, and an offensive coordinator who just got fired from his new team... and yet we have a much less efficient offense this year. Maybe... just maybe... it's the new OC and his scheme?

we're not less efficient though.

 

[DarkVictory23]

In my view it's not about how much you actually run the ball, but whether opposing defenses have to respect you running the ball. Rushing success rate is probably the right stat to look at vs. YPA which is influenced by breakaway runs or rushing totals which depend on volume. Do you agree with that?

I agree that success rate is a better overall measure for effectiveness of your rushing game than YPA, yes. But it's been found that, in general, rushing attempt rate and rushing success rate basically don't matter for play action's effectiveness. See here.

we're not less efficient though.

We are, though. In 2023, we finished just outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency (#11), right now we are #18. (I define offensive efficiency as a measure of percentage of drives that end with a score and points scored per drive).

In order to be sitting at the #11 spot this year, we'd have to have scored nearly an additional 7 touchdowns over these first 9 games.

 

[toffee]

We are, though. In 2023, we finished just outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency (#11), right now we are #18. (I define offensive efficiency as a measure of percentage of drives that end with a score and points scored per drive).

In order to be sitting at the #11 spot this year, we'd have to have scored nearly an additional 7 touchdowns over these first 9 games.

This agrees with my eyeball, to make the matter worse, our new OC/system is causing a melt down in our QB's effectiveness.

 

[AgentDib]

I agree that success rate is a better overall measure for effectiveness of your rushing game than YPA, yes. But it's been found that, in general, rushing attempt rate and rushing success rate basically don't matter for play action's effectiveness. See here.

I don't think we're disagreeing. From that same article: "However, play-action isn’t a catch all in all situations. The threat of the run has to be present. Running play-action on 3rd and 10 isn’t as impactful as running it on 3rd and short." Perception is what matters, not reality, and NFL coaches should spend way more time talking about how they love to run the ball then actually running it. I'd be interested in any opposing linebacker movement data from this season as I suspect it isn't good.

 

[Appyhawk]

This offense isn't one that can present multiple faces yet.

But isn't presenting multiple faces a feature of Grubb's offensive scheme? It is supposed to be a feature of Mac's defensive scheme but he admits we aren't nearly ready to implement his scheme in its entirely. Could Grubbs be having the same problem?

 

[Maelstrom787]

But isn't presenting multiple faces a feature of Grubb's offensive scheme? It is supposed to be a feature of Mac's defensive scheme but he admits we aren't nearly ready to implement his scheme in its entirely. Could Grubbs be having the same problem?

As I understand, his scheme in college was largely 11 personnel and RPO oriented but skewed heavily toward the passing game even by college standards.

With that said, although he called plays, he was coaching under a head coach with a background in offense. That scheme, by all accounts, was largely DeBoer's scheme that he entrusted Grubb to handle the calling for.

I think the results so far indicate that Grubb probably has some stuff he hasn't been able to get to yet, but we're now over halfway through season 1 with little to no growth at all.

As it stands, I'd absolutely want him fired at the end of the year and to have a more experienced coordinator brought in to run that half of the team.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Fired after one year behind a rebuilding team with a pathetic O Line? Damn. Seems a little harsh and unrealistic. But it's the NFL, anything can happen, I guess. He needs at least 2 years as OC, imo.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Fired after one year behind a rebuilding team with a pathetic O Line? Damn.

I'd be more forgiving if we showed anything that we could build off of, or if the adjustments were clearly there to try to work around some issues with the line.

As it stands, though... Waldron did better installing a new scheme complete with new blocking concepts than Grubb and company have done.

That's not enough for me to think that we'd be better off riding it out than starting fresh. I think this is a Jeremy Bates situation.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

And you have a right to that opinion, as I do mine