Five possible destinations for Geno Smith

OneLofaTatupu

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I might be changing my mind on Geno. He IS a Top 5 QB and IS worth 50+ million a year!!! He needs to hold out and get his $$$$!

His agent should hire KEasley to prove that every single loss, every single interception and every single incompletion and sack IS NOT HIS FAULT. If only he had a different OC and a better line and better RBs, TEs and WRs he would have a perfect passer rating, an undefeated record and multiple Super Bowl wins!!,

Hold out Geno! You are THE BEST. Don’t let anyone tell you different. $50 million or bust!
This is GENius
 

IndyHawk

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These are mostly extension values, which are different to real contract values. For example in reality Lawrence is being paid:

2024: $39M
2025: $37.5M
2026: $37.5M
2027: $41.5M
2028: $46.5M
2029: $50.5M
2030: $53.841M

In no real sense is Lawrence being paid $55M per season, (but it makes a nice headline).
You're not counting the bonus upfront that already was paid, correct?
 

Ozzy

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Richard Sherman said it well in a recent podcast: You can fix red zone issues, but you do not just toss aside a 70% completion rate.

And again, that was with 4,000 yards and no help from a run game, O-line, or offensive coordinator.

That doesn't make Geno as good as Mahomes or Allen, but the point stands - Geno has played well enough that Seattle is in a bind.
I just read that completion % is one of the worst correlated stats for a QB to success. Combined with a low ADOT and the league average is higher as well I’m sure it’s as big of a deal as people are making it out to be. EPA has 3x the correlation to wins which Geno ranks in the bottom 3rd.

I was told completion % is more important than touchdown numbers which is ridiculous.
 

MontanaHawk05

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Haha. Would you eat the best smelling turd?
If he got us to 10 wins with better stats than other quarterbacks that DID have run games, yeah, I might.

Sorry, dude. The run game thing just isn't the gotcha you need it to be.
 

MontanaHawk05

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EPA has 3x the correlation to wins which Geno ranks in the bottom 3rd.
A 10-win season would suggest otherwise.

As far as the massive contract he's not gonna deserve - that's got nothing to do with Geno, that's the industry. Both quarterbacks and star defensive linemen are overpaid across the league and teams are just kinda hostage to the situation because you can't succeed without them and the players know it. Geno doesn't deserve a massive contract, but if we're looking at accomplishments, neither do Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson or any of the other guys in the general "second tier" or quarterbacks (i.e. anyone not named Patrick Mahomes). None of those guys are likely to win more than a single Super Bowl, but you know guys at that level get overpaid all the time. That's where Geno falls. His absolute ceiling is one Super Bowl win and that's it. But you'd have to work pretty hard to convince me that it gets any better out there.

In fairness, I'm on record saying that the Seahawks shouldn't give Geno that enormous contract. But I'm not gonna feel bad if the Seahawks are forced by unfriendly drafts to do so.
 
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OneLofaTatupu

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If he got us to 10 wins with better stats than other quarterbacks that DID have run games, yeah, I might.

Sorry, dude. The run game thing just isn't the gotcha you need it to be.
Be different if it was an attempt at gotcha. Weird flex though I guess.
 

Double Tribble

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The only time we won a sb was when we drafted a rookie qb and built the team around his cheap rookie contract. So why are we trying to reinvent the wheel? Instead, we're investing in a 35 yr old qb who rarely runs, doesn't score in the red zone, throws picks like skittles, and has never won a playoff game. Genius strategery.
 

Titus Pullo

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Worst case scenario is that we pick at #15 or above the next two years.
 

Ozzy

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A 10-win season would suggest otherwise.

As far as the massive contract he's not gonna deserve - that's got nothing to do with Geno, that's the industry. Both quarterbacks and star defensive linemen are overpaid across the league and teams are just kinda hostage to the situation because you can't succeed without them and the players know it. Geno doesn't deserve a massive contract, but if we're looking at accomplishments, neither do Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson or any of the other guys in the general "second tier" or quarterbacks (i.e. anyone not named Patrick Mahomes). None of those guys are likely to win more than a single Super Bowl, but you know guys at that level get overpaid all the time. That's where Geno falls. His absolute ceiling is one Super Bowl win and that's it. But you'd have to work pretty hard to convince me that it gets any better out there.

In fairness, I'm on record saying that the Seahawks shouldn't give Geno that enormous contract. But I'm not gonna feel bad if the Seahawks are forced by unfriendly drafts to do so.
A lot of factors went into winning 10 games. I don’t think completion percentage at the expense of almost bottom level touchdowns and high level ints moved the needle that far. I sort of hate the analytics guys at times but I think they have this right.

If those guys are a long shot to win a SB so is a guy who has never one a playoff game at 35 years old. I sort of get what you’re saying but for me that puts me in the camp of trying to find that guy now rather than year after year of missing the playoffs or one and done.
 

Ozzy

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The only time we won a sb was when we drafted a rookie qb and built the team around his cheap rookie contract. So why are we trying to reinvent the wheel? Instead, we're investing in a 35 yr old qb who rarely runs, doesn't score in the red zone, throws picks like skittles, and has never won a playoff game. Genius strategery.
Yeah the idea that “if only” we do this or that we can win one in the next 3 years either a dude who’s 35 when tue season starts is so much more reasonable than other options is wild. I respect people for having that take, but at least he respectful of people thinking another way might work too.
 
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