Comparing SEA & DEN Offenses and Defenses to Opponents

[onanygivensunday]

We all know how good Seattle's D is after watching them play every game this year... but I just completed an analysis that will quantitatively prove how dominant it is... and by comparison, how mediocre Denver's defense is.

For both the regular season and the playoffs combined (18 games), I calculated how many points (+/-) both Seattle and Denver held their opponents to their scoring average. Once I had the difference figured for each opponent, I then added the + and - points together to form a total differential for each team. The higher the negative number the better the defense.

Denver's defense has allowed a total of +14 points to their opponents scoring average... meaning on average, Denver's defense allows their opponents to out-perform their scoring average by one point per game. (14/18 = 0.8 points)

Seattle's number... -136... meaning on average, Seattle's defense has held its opponents to 8 points BELOW their scoring average. (136/18 = 8 )

Other notables:

1. Only twice has Denver's D held its opponents to minus double digits. Seattle has done it 8 times.

2. When Seattle and Denver both played top-12 scoring offenses (includes NE, Philly, Dallas, KC, NO, SF and SD), Seattle's total was -66. Denver's was -13. Interestingly, Denver played in 9 such games and Seattle played in only 5 such games yet Seattle's differential is 53 points better.

3. Both defenses allowed only one game wherein their opponent scored double digits over their scoring average (Seattle, Indy (+10)... and Denver, Indy (+15) as well).

Denver won't know what hit them until they wake up.

 

[themunn]

Did you do the same analysis for offense though?

 

[4horsemen]

What you've shown is that the Seahawks had an elite defense and the Broncos were league average at best. I don't think anyone would dispute that. I'm sure you could perform a similar analysis for the offenses and come up with staggering numbers involving the Broncos offense where you could conclude "the Seahawks defense won't know what hit them until they wake up". Either analysis is a very incomplete picture of how these teams match up.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

We all know how good Seattle's D is after watching them play every game this year... but I just completed an analysis that will quantitatively prove how dominant it is... and by comparison, how mediocre Denver's defense is.

Not sure what you're trying to prove because Denver's D is mediocre, but so is Seattle's offense. Both are ranked #17.

No one's comparing Denver's D to Seattle's D, because they're not playing each other.

 

[onanygivensunday]

We all know how good Seattle's D is after watching them play every game this year... but I just completed an analysis that will quantitatively prove how dominant it is... and by comparison, how mediocre Denver's defense is.

Not sure what you're trying to prove because Denver's D is mediocre, but so is Seattle's offense. Both are ranked #17.

No one's comparing Denver's D to Seattle's D, because they're not playing each other.

It's just a comparison... nothing more, nothing less.

 

[hawker84]

Not sure what you're trying to prove because Denver's D is mediocre, but so is Seattle's offense. Both are ranked #17.

No one's comparing Denver's D to Seattle's D, because they're not playing each other.

Yes but an argue can be made, we're more equipped to stop Denver more than their mediocre defense is equipped to stop our offense. That's the key matchup, can Denver stop our offense? Besides statswise you could call our offense mediocre, but anyone following this team for the last couple years know's what it's capable of doing, especially when playing weaker defenses.

 

[dradee]

What you've shown is that the Seahawks had an elite defense and the Broncos were league average at best. I don't think anyone would dispute that. I'm sure you could perform a similar analysis for the offenses and come up with staggering numbers involving the Broncos offense where you could conclude "the Seahawks defense won't know what hit them until they wake up". Either analysis is a very incomplete picture of how these teams match up.

Yup you are right, the Broncs do not matchup well at all with Seattle. Denver's D is gonna get worked over .

Denver's last 2 games did not impress at all against teams with not many special athletes, you will see the difference in intensity and pure physical athletes. Seattle out athletes the BHoes by along shot.

 

[onanygivensunday]

Did you do the same analysis for offense though?

In work.

 

[4horsemen]

What you've shown is that the Seahawks had an elite defense and the Broncos were league average at best. I don't think anyone would dispute that. I'm sure you could perform a similar analysis for the offenses and come up with staggering numbers involving the Broncos offense where you could conclude "the Seahawks defense won't know what hit them until they wake up". Either analysis is a very incomplete picture of how these teams match up.

Yup you are right, the Broncs do not matchup well at all with Seattle. Denver's D is gonna get worked over .

Denver's last 2 games did not impress at all against teams with not many special athletes, you will see the difference in intensity and pure physical athletes. Seattle out athletes the BHoes by along shot.

I believe we match up well in spots, not so well in others. I'm confident we can contain your running game as we've done consistently all year against downhill RBs and running QBs. We generally play decent man-to-man defense but are susceptible up the middle of the field. My biggest worry is Wilson moving around and hitting receivers for long gains because our guys broke off their man. I know Wilson is the best at passes that travel 20+ yds in the air so the Broncos dbacks are gonna have to stay super disciplined in staying on their guy until the whistle blows. This has to be done even if it allows Wilson to scramble for more first downs.

Our defense has had its biggest meltdowns in games where key players got injured halfway through (vs Dallas, vs NE, vs SD in playoffs at the end) but ever since the Thursday Night SD game, they've allowed 13, 14, 17, and 16 points so they are definitely playing a lot better as of late. Your offense certainly could "work over" our defense but the emergence of that side of the ball for Denver is a very underrated aspect of our team.

 

[onanygivensunday]

Comparing offenses:

Seattle's differential total is +67. Denver's is +201.

On a per game basis, Seattle scores +4 points/game more than their opponent's average... and Denver scores +11 points/game more than their opponent's average.

Interestingly, the differential per game on offense is 7 points favoring Denver... and the differential on defense favoring Seattle is also 7 points.

On a point/game basis, Denver's offensive scoring prowess is completely offset by Seattle's prowess on defense.

 

[Uncle Si]

here's a nice analysis of the #1 Offense versus #1 defense. Puts both groups in perpective.

http://grantland.com/features/a-tale-of-two-cities/

 

[themunn]

Comparing offenses:

Seattle's differential total is +67. Denver's is +201.

On a per game basis, Seattle scores +4 points/game more than their opponent's average... and Denver scores +11 points/game more than their opponent's average.

Interestingly, the differential per game on offense is 7 points favoring Denver... and the differential on defense favoring Seattle is also 7 points.

On a point/game basis, Denver's offensive scoring prowess is completely offset by Seattle's prowess on defense.

That's what I wanted to know, very interesting.

So if Seattle have a +67 differential in scoring for, and -136 differential in scoring allowed, that totals a difference of +203 overall compared to opponents, while Denver has a +201 differential in scoring for, and +14 in scoring allowed, meaning a total differential of +187.

All compared to opponents averages of course.

Therefore SEATTLE WINS

 

[onanygivensunday]

I revised the subject to better reflect the content of the thread.