A mind-blowing stat about Aaron Rodgers

RolandDeschain

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Take a moment to guess at this, then I'll post the answer. The question is, how many 4th quarter comebacks has Aaron Rodgers led against teams above .500 in his career? (That is, teams that finished the regular season with a winning record.)

Think about it for a moment. I would say a good number for an elite quarterback would be 50%, or something around that number. You can't expect to win 'em all; and they aren't responsible for defensive breakdowns or a great special teams play by the opponent, and stuff like that. Regardless, think about what percentage you consider would be the minimum for any QB to meet if they were elite. 35% of 4th quarter comeback attempts against winning teams needed to be elite? 53%? Whatever that number is, think about it compared to what that number is for Aaron Rodgers, posted below.











***NO PEEKING*** :)













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Here's the pic linked in that Tweet, the proof:

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Kearly, Scotte, Absolut, and other NFL minds of the forum; are you guys as blown away by this as I am? I'm flabbergasted. It makes me smile, considering how much of an "NFL Golden Boy" Rodgers is, too; not going to lie. Russell Wilson already has four 4th-quarter comebacks including the playoffs, and all four were against winning teams! http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... r=WilsRu00

What does this say about Aaron Rodgers when the pressure is really on?
 

volsunghawk

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RolandDeschain":2nf2x0ca said:
What does this say about Aaron Rodgers when the pressure is really on?

I'm wondering how "4th quarter comeback" is defined here. Is it just a situation where Rodgers entered the 4th quarter with the Packers down on the scoreboard, or is it a scenario where Rodgers had the ball in his hand down by one score, with his team having the final significant possession?

I'm going to take a look at the game logs and see what I can find out.
 

-The Glove-

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I guessed it would be a low number, but ZERO? Really? That's crazy!
 

pehawk

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Yeah, I dont know what to make of this. The Packers are just good and can score in bunches. There could also be fewer chances...?
 
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RolandDeschain

RolandDeschain

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volsunghawk":2tghhefk said:
RolandDeschain":2tghhefk said:
What does this say about Aaron Rodgers when the pressure is really on?

I'm wondering how "4th quarter comeback" is defined here. Is it just a situation where Rodgers entered the 4th quarter with the Packers down on the scoreboard, or is it a scenario where Rodgers had the ball in his hand down by one score, with his team having the final significant possession?
From http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=3392

Pro Football Reference":2tghhefk said:
For it to be a 4th quarter comeback win, you must:

Win the game (no ties or losses)
Take the field with a 1--8 pt deficit (1--7 prior to 1994) and score as an offense (no fumble return TD to win the game)
It does not have to be the final winning score (hence, that applies to the number of game-winning drives)

-The Glove-":2tghhefk said:
I guessed it would be a low number, but ZERO? Really? That's crazy!
Yeah, I was blown away. It seems almost impossible; but anyone can verify it themselves. Russell Wilson gets 4 in his rookie year, and Rodgers still has 0. Absolutely crazy.

pehawk":2tghhefk said:
Yeah, I dont know what to make of this. The Packers are just good and can score in bunches. There could also be fewer chances...?
He had 18 chances against winning teams. Now, I'm sure that number is among the lowest in the NFL during this stretch of time because the Packers have been a good team and have typically led entering the 4th quarter; but still, 0 for 18?! Just...Wow.
 

Sarlacc83

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I imagine if this is something that can be proved, it's connected with the zero run game approach of Green Bay. When you don't even have to cover a running back in crunch time, you can devote all your resources to the nickel or the dime.
 

pehawk

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I didn't catch that part. 0-18. Wow.

I remember the Cards game. It sticks with me because I think the Hawks learn from last year, as the Packers did that year.
 

Sac

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Damn, DangeRuss has 4 already and should have had 1 more last year against teams over .500

GB
NE
CHI
WASH

ATL

Should have had 2 more against sub .500

DET
MIA
 
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RolandDeschain

RolandDeschain

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30 minutes later, and I'm still floored by this. Like Sac said, Wilson should have had 5; but our defense just had to give up the big play again.
 

volsunghawk

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'07 Dallas: Rodgers didn't even start that game. Favre played 1.5 quarters. Can't fault the guy for failing against a 10-1 team as a backup.

'08 Tampa: The Packer D gained the lead at the beginning of the 4th with a pick-six, 21-20. The Bucs got a FG to go up 23-21. Rodgers injured his shoulder in the 4th quarter and sat out 2 series, but when he returned, he threw a pick. The Packers D broke down immediately after, allowing Earnest Graham a 47 yard run, followed by a 1 yard TD to put the game out of reach. Flynn played at least 2 series in the 4th quarter of this game. The pick is bad, but injury can explain that to a degree.
'08 Atlanta: This one is a mix of excellent Rodgers and bad Rodgers. Packers entered the 4th down a TD, and Rodgers led 2 TD drives, throwing for both scores. But he also threw a pick in GB territory that led to a short Falcons TD.
'08 Tennessee: Packers were down 3 going into the 4th, and Rodgers managed to tie the game. It went to OT, and the Packers never got to touch the ball, as the Titans marched down the field and kicked a FG.
'08 Minnesota: You could put this one on the kicker, maybe. Long 52 yd FG, but in a dome.
'08 Carolina: Rodgers got the Packers down to the 1 with 3:45 to play in a tied game, and the GB running game couldn't punch it in. Still, they took the lead with a FG at the 2 minute warning. Carolina got a big return, a big play to Steve Smith, and the ball punched in by DeAngelo Williams, and 27 seconds later, the Panthers led. Rodgers threw a pick to end the game.

Interjecting a second to point out that 6 of these games are from the '08 season, when the Packers were a 6-10 team. It was Rodgers' first season where he was actually the starter. Yeah, Wilson still did what he did, but he had a much better team around him (and a much, MUCH better O-line). Just sayin'.

'08 Houston: Lame. Packers came into the 4th quarter down 6 and immediately scored to take a 1 point lead. Texans scored right back with a 2 pt conversion to make it a 7 pt game. Rodgers tied it again. The teams traded 3-and-outs, and then the Texans marched down the field and kicked a 40 yarder with time expiring.

'09 Cincy: Yeah, not a good quarter for Rodgers. His accuracy was garbage, and he was sacked by Antwan Odom 3 times in this quarter alone (5 for the whole game). Without rewatching, hard to say whether that was Rodgers holding the ball too long or the O-line sucking. But definitely a bad quarter.
'09 Minnesota: This one was pretty bad, yeah. Favre homecoming, too.
'09 Pittsburgh: Harsh to criticize Rodgers on this one. Packers came into the 4th down by 10. By 2:12 left, they were up by 6. Rodgers drove the Packers for 3 TDs (including throwing for a 2 pt conversion), scoring 22 points to the Steelers' 2 FGs. The Steelers drove the field on the Packers and threw a TD on the last timed play to tie it. The extra point won the game. There's not anything else Rodgers could have done on this. He drove his team for TDs on every single possession of the 4th quarter.
'09 Arizona (playoffs): Another game where Rodgers drove his team for a TD on every possession of the 4th quarter except the very last, when he kneeled down with 9 seconds left in a tied game to send it to OT. 21 points in one quarter. So that's the caveat... but OT is where he gets dinged for fumbling when sacked, allowing the Cards D to pick up the ball and run it in for a game-ending TD.

'10 Chicago: The Packers entered the 4th leading by 3 and with the ball. They punted... to Devin Hester, who returned for a TD. Rodgers led a TD drive to regain the lead. Bears kicked a FG to tie it. Packers started driving again; Rodgers completed a pass to Jones, who then fumbled it away. Bears drove to the 1 and kicked a gamewinner. Hard to put that on Rodgers.
'10 Atlanta: Falcons and Packers traded drives in this one, but Rodgers tied it with 1:06 to play. The kickoff was returned 40 yards with a 15 yard facemask added, and it was short work for Matt Ryan to drive from the GB 49 to FG range. Rodgers got to run one play with 2 seconds left (not a TD, obvs.)

'11 New York (playoffs): Pretty much awful 4th quarter by GB on both sides of the ball, yeah.

'12 San Francisco: Another good Rodgers, bad Rodgers mix. Definitely count this one.
'12 Seattle: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
'12 Indy: Rodgers was sacked a lot in this 4th quarter, and was ineffective for much of it as a result. Story of this one at the end was that GB was up 27-22 with 4:30 left to play, and the Colts ate up all but 35 seconds of that on a long scoring drive. In 27 seconds, Rodgers drove the Packers from their 20 to the Colts 33 and used their last timeout. 51 yd FG to tie no good.
'12 Minnesota: Packers had 2 possessions in this 4th quarter, got 10 points. But they last touched the ball at 2:57 to go. Rodgers went 28/40 for 365 yards and 4 TDs, 0 INTs. His one real miscue of this game was fumbling when sacked in the 3rd quarter (subsequent Vikings drive was a TD that put GB down 10). More notable, Adrian Peterson ran for 199 yards and scored twice, and Christian Ponder threw for 3 TDs and drove the Vikings on their 3-minute FG gamewinning drive that prevented the Packers from touching the ball ever again.
 

pehawk

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Vols, THANK YOU. Man among boys, sweetie.

Go Auburn!
 
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RolandDeschain

RolandDeschain

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Good info. Still a shocking stat, though. Any QB is going to have a number of "not his fault" 4th quarter comeback failures over time though, I imagine.
 

hawksfansinceday1

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SacHawk2.0":1c5dv1vx said:
Damn, DangeRuss has 4 already and should have had 1 more last year against teams over .500

GB
NE
CHI
WASH

ATL

Should have had 2 more against sub .500

DET
MIA
And if Braylon Edwards could catch an admittedly bullet speed pass you could add the first game of the year vs. AZ to that sub .500 list.
 

Stephen SeaHawking

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hawksfansinceday1":3kpc9xk8 said:
SacHawk2.0":3kpc9xk8 said:
Damn, DangeRuss has 4 already and should have had 1 more last year against teams over .500

GB
NE
CHI
WASH

ATL

Should have had 2 more against sub .500

DET
MIA
And if Braylon Edwards could catch an admittedly bullet speed pass you could add the first game of the year vs. AZ to that sub .500 list.
He made up for it with a difficult catch in the end zone against the Pats.
 

volsunghawk

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pehawk":mbwq6fb8 said:
Vols, THANK YOU. Man among boys, sweetie.

Go Auburn!

No problem.

But there was something about this reply that made me want to read it in Helena Bonham Carter's voice. I think that's how I'm going to read all of your posts from here on out. I will report back on the entertainment value of this.
 

12th_Bob

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Interesting stat, I wonder wonder how many Tony Romo has had even though he is probably mostly known for the field goal slick ball and choking vs. the Giants on the 13-3 season, he has had at least one win in the fourth quarter against San Fran a few seasons ago.
 
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RolandDeschain

RolandDeschain

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drastik":3lujxp01 said:
Shows how worthless the 4th quarter comeback stat is..

Yeah, because since Aaron Rodgers is elite, it means he has no weaknesses or areas in which he can improve.

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
 
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