I think it's interesting that Seattle drafted Harper with Patton still on the board. Not only do I wonder if that was a sound decision, but they also gave Patton a small amount of bulletin board material. I realize they do different things, but that could be a pick that haunts John Schneider.
I don't know if the Dolphins had the most over-rated draft, but they definitely had the most over-rated offseason. Miami's offseason was Dan Snyder-esque.
Minor correction regarding Idzik: the Jets had a different front office in 2012, and the info about Irvin was leaked post draft by Rex Ryan. Maybe Seattle knew anyway. In all seriousness John Schneider appears to have an intelligence network of some kind and it's working very well.
Anyway, my turn:Biggest Steal:
John Simon, Baltimore Ravens. He ran essentially the same pro-day time as Khaseem Greene, and you already know he's a badass pass rusher. I think it was the worst kept secret in the NFL that Simon would be a Raven or a Steeler. He's probably not as fast as his forty but he's at least as fast as the player he's replacing, and speed isn't considered a big deal for Baltimore's 3-4 OLB spot. Getting a player of his caliber and intangibles in the 4th round amazes me. I'd nominate Ryan Swope but let's see if he's another Jahvid Best first. I loved Best, too.Most guaranteed bust:
(Assuming 1st round? Because the easiest answer is Zac Dysert.)
Ezekiel Ansah, Detroit Lions. Solid athlete with no ability to disrupt. Like Margus Hunt, he's a bit like Jordan Kent the DE- he's very new to football and it shows in every way. He has some core strength and as a Michael Bennett styled 5-tech I think he could be okay, but I'm guessing he gets used as a pure pass rusher and I think he'll struggle. Ansah measured with long arms, but he plays like he has short arms. His tape reminded me a little of Melvin Ingram, who I hated as a prospect and who was held to just one sack in his rookie season. Ingram at least looked interesting as an interior rusher, and Ansah struggles inside even more than outside.Most over rated draft:
Wait for it...
Seattle's. Bet you weren't expecting that one.
Okay, maybe it's not the
most over-rated, but I think it's on the short list. I really liked some of the picks Seattle made, but let's be honest, there is a very real chance that Seattle's 2013 draft could produce zero rookie starts next season, and get the same kind of backhanded dismissal that the 49ers 2012 draft received. This draft was all about drafting depth and role players, with Michael and Simon being the only picks I'm confident we'll (eventually) see great things from, and both carry big risk (injuries; character). It's a lot like the 2011 draft in that it's completely banking on one of their high risk picks to be a grand slam, or else it's going to look pretty bad in retrospect. Richard Sherman saved that draft, and Sherman almost never got his chance.
The upside of this draft is pretty good, but the downside looks an awful lot like the Steelers draft of 2008
. Both drafts led off with an "upside" running back and selected an "upside" receiver soon after. Both the 2008 Steelers and the 2013 Seahawks were applauded as being among the best drafts the day of, not because the drafts themselves were all that great, but because of the sterling reputation of the respective front offices who ran them.
Today, the Steelers 2008 draft class is consider by many Steelers fans to be the worst in recent memory. I don't think it's going to that bleak for Seattle most likely, but at the same time I feel like all the good grades we've gotten in the media are not because of the picks themselves, but because of the man who made them. As the 2008 Steelers showed, that can prove to be a mistake. Right now everyone is afraid to bash a Seahawks draft, no matter how puzzling it looks, and some have even listed the Seahawks draft as being one of the best in the league. That strikes me as overhyping things.
Timeout. I hope you don't think my negative tone here means I think Seattle had a lousy draft. I can already see the posts saying that I'm hating on the draft because they didn't draft players I wanted, which is wrong on both fronts. Seattle did a solid job. I loved several of their picks (particularly Michael) and it's a draft with excellent upside. It's also as murky a draft class as you'll find. I loved when Hawkblogger called Russell Wilson Seattle's "powerball" pick last year. The 2013 draft is loaded with powerball picks. We'll see how that works out, as powerball isn't something you expect to win.
So why over-rated? Considering that everyone is mindlessly praising our picks while being afraid to criticize, I think it makes Seattle fair game for the "most over-rated" label this year. I don't think Seattle's draft was better than any of our division rivals this year (I think all four are pretty close). I think if we are lucky, this draft is another 2011 with one of our picks being a Sherman type success, but the national sports writers have basically been shocked into submission to the point where every Seahawks draft might as well be the 2012 group.
It all sets up for a fairly obvious 2014 backlash when almost none of our draft picks play significant snaps next season. It's all so obvious, but it will catch 99% of people off guard. You just watch.
The 2008 Steelers draft reminded us that even smart picks can bust, and even good front offices can still have bad drafts. Luck is a major factor. That draft didn't do much to help the team, but guess what? The Steelers still won the Superbowl the very next season.