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 Post subject: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 6:01 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 6:14 pm 
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Now that right there is respect. Basically, Vegas is just creating a popularity poll. More money will always come in on SF and NE so they don't have to make the odds any more tempting. We are far from the 3rd most popular team in the country, but Vegas understands the heavier bettors are football savvy, so the fact they have us at 3 really suggests we are the team to beat. I love it.

Edit: I misread Denver's line. We are actually at 4. But that changes little and what I said about us can be applied to (Manning) and the Broncs (who we will defeat in NY).


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 6:25 pm 
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I like your thinking hawkwow! So after the draft the chances got a little worse? I thought I seen it at 6/1 or 8/1 before.

I would wait for the 10/1, then everyone has something to lose.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 6:27 pm 
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In fairness NEs path to the playoffs (and thus SB) is a lot easier than sea and sf. Odds seem fair.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 6:39 pm 
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So based off the odds, Vegas is predicting the following standings.

NFC

West
1: San Francisco
2: Seattle (WC)
3: Rams
4: Cardinals

North
1: Green Bay
2: Chicago
3: Detroit
4: Minnesota

South
1: Atlanta
2: New Orleans (WC)
3: Tampa Bay
4: Carolina

East
1: New York
2: Dallas
3: Washington
4: Philadelphia

AFC

West
1: Denver
2: San Diego
3: Kansas City
4: Oakland

North
1: Baltimore
2: Pittsburgh (WC)
3: Cincinnati (WC)
4: Cleveland

South
1: Houston
2: Indianapolis
3: Tennessee
4: Jacksonville

East
1: New England
2: Miami
3: New York
4: Buffalo

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 6:40 pm 
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They seem to agree with me about the Rams, that people are really starting to overrate them here. Of course, part of their low odds is that they have to get thru Seattle and SF to get there.

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 12:57 pm 
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JSeahawks wrote:
They seem to agree with me about the Rams, that people are really starting to overrate them here. Of course, part of their low odds is that they have to get thru Seattle and SF to get there.


Four games against Seattle/SanFran and a fifth against ATL will do a number on your odds.

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:09 pm 
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JSeahawks wrote:
They seem to agree with me about the Rams, that people are really starting to overrate them here. Of course, part of their low odds is that they have to get thru Seattle and SF to get there.


I think people are overrating them a bit because of how tough they played Seattle and San Francisco. Their overall point differential (-49) wasn't too hot. Only the Eagles, Lions and Cardinals were worse in the NFC.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:11 pm 
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I think they have Pittsburgh a little overrated I haven't seen enough to convince they have fixed their impending downfall because of the age on the defense. I easily see Baltimore either winning or coming in second in the AFC North.

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:17 pm 
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The Cincinatti Bengals will win their division.

BOOK IT!

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:24 pm 
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bestfightstory wrote:
The Cincinatti Bengals will win their division.

BOOK IT!

That's my belief but Baltimore will put a fight up. They didn't lose as much as the pundits think. I see that division going Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland.

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:40 pm 
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DavidSeven wrote:
JSeahawks wrote:
They seem to agree with me about the Rams, that people are really starting to overrate them here. Of course, part of their low odds is that they have to get thru Seattle and SF to get there.


I think people are overrating them a bit because of how tough they played Seattle and San Francisco. Their overall point differential (-49) wasn't too hot. Only the Eagles, Lions and Cardinals were worse in the NFC.


This. But if the Rams succeed against the rest of the league as they did against us last year (and SF), they could lock in a WC spot as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:50 pm 
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I don't know what I think about the Bengals. I always hear about them being good but whenever I catch a game of theirs, I just don't see anything that really resembles great football.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:01 pm 
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Hawknballs wrote:
I don't know what I think about the Bengals. I always hear about them being good but whenever I catch a game of theirs, I just don't see anything that really resembles great football.

They perplex me also, it seems like they should perform much better than they do. Is that on the coach or the players? I only think they win their division because of their FA and drafting that TE. The so needed another target for Dalton beyond AJ Greene.

As for the Superbowl odds I think they are pretty fair because on paper Denver should win the AFC and until we beat San Francisco they have the right to be more favored than us.

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:04 pm 
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There's a pretty decent chance SF could start out 0-2 to our 2-0. At least considering week 1 of competition, and home field for us week 2. Better than vice-versa if you had to put odds on it. that could be pretty big the rest of the way.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:11 pm 
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SeatownJay wrote:
So based off the odds, Vegas is predicting the following standings.

NFC

West
1: San Francisco
2: Seattle (WC)
3: Rams
4: Cardinals

North
1: Green Bay
2: Chicago
3: Detroit
4: Minnesota

South
1: Atlanta
2: New Orleans (WC)
3: Tampa Bay
4: Carolina

East
1: New York
2: Dallas
3: Washington
4: Philadelphia

AFC

West
1: Denver
2: San Diego
3: Kansas City
4: Oakland

North
1: Baltimore
2: Pittsburgh (WC)
3: Cincinnati (WC)
4: Cleveland

South
1: Houston
2: Indianapolis
3: Tennessee
4: Jacksonville

East
1: New England
2: Miami
3: New York
4: Buffalo



Helped remind me how many crappy teams there are in the AFC.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:11 pm 
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True. And if we at least split with Houston/Indianapolis (entirely possible) you're looking at 5-1 with a TNF game which will be close and a MNF where we are money, divisional rival or not. Could conceivably be 7-1 and 3-0 in division with 5 home games on the back end of the schedule. That would create a huge hole for San Francisco to climb out of.

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:34 pm 
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Uhhhhhh..... I was in Vegas 3 weeks ago and there was not a chance of getting odds this good on any of these teams. I went to 8 casinos and checked the sportsbooks in all of them and didn't find SF at better than 4:1 anywhere and couldn't find anywhere better than 11:2 on Seattle. In fact, Planet Hollywood had SF 7:2, Seattle 4:1. I'm not sure where these sites get their lines, but if you go to Vegas and can get 9:1 on the Seahawks, do it!

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:37 pm 
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The vegas odds are adjusted by their own staff based on the amount of money expected to be gained or lost. I i magine the odds above are the base odds, and what you saw were the adjusted odds by the various books based on the amount of money put in favor of each team.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 4:23 pm 
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I think the schedule is a much larger factor for the change in odds. The odds change as the bets come in or don't. Early odds are based on expectation of betting and with ours going down and the Niner going up I suspect the books are not getting the betting on the Niner's they expected. Giving better odds helps to even out the betting. Ultimately the book isn't trying to win or lose on the betting, they are looking to rake in the commission for the bet.

I said in another post I would love to see the books power rankings with no bearing on money but you will never see that because everyone would simply bet the book.

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 4:26 pm 
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I will be landing in Las Vegas very shortly and will report back what odds I am seeing.

(BCN-JFK-LAS is ALOT of flight time!!)

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 4:58 pm 
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HawkWow wrote:
Now that right there is respect. Basically, Vegas is just creating a popularity poll. More money will always come in on SF and NE so they don't have to make the odds any more tempting. We are far from the 3rd most popular team in the country, but Vegas understands the heavier bettors are football savvy, so the fact they have us at 3 really suggests we are the team to beat. I love it.

Edit: I misread Denver's line. We are actually at 4. But that changes little and what I said about us can be applied to (Manning) and the Broncs (who we will defeat in NY).


This is a great post. A lot of people don't understand that sports betting isn't just the odds that the team are going to win, there's a lot more that goes into it than that. That's why good, popular, teams are never smart to bet on because you're never getting your monies worth. This is why you'll find professional (addict :lol: ) gamblers will often bet on games and teams you've never heard of.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 5:13 pm 
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I'll be in Vegas in the 2nd week of June, I'll be estatic if I get the Hawks at 9-1 !!!!!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 6:32 pm 
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DAMMIT why did my Vegas trip have to be the week of free agency/Harvin trade?!?!?!

I already planned to throw $50 on us no matter what, and was welcomed with 5/1 odds.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 6:34 pm 
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mjwhitay wrote:
Uhhhhhh..... I was in Vegas 3 weeks ago and there was not a chance of getting odds this good on any of these teams. I went to 8 casinos and checked the sportsbooks in all of them and didn't find SF at better than 4:1 anywhere and couldn't find anywhere better than 11:2 on Seattle. In fact, Planet Hollywood had SF 7:2, Seattle 4:1. I'm not sure where these sites get their lines, but if you go to Vegas and can get 9:1 on the Seahawks, do it!


Exactly! These odds don't make any sense.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 6:45 pm 
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RussellMania wrote:
HawkWow wrote:
Now that right there is respect. Basically, Vegas is just creating a popularity poll. More money will always come in on SF and NE so they don't have to make the odds any more tempting. We are far from the 3rd most popular team in the country, but Vegas understands the heavier bettors are football savvy, so the fact they have us at 3 really suggests we are the team to beat. I love it.

Edit: I misread Denver's line. We are actually at 4. But that changes little and what I said about us can be applied to (Manning) and the Broncs (who we will defeat in NY).


This is a great post. A lot of people don't understand that sports betting isn't just the odds that the team are going to win, there's a lot more that goes into it than that. That's why good, popular, teams are never smart to bet on because you're never getting your monies worth. This is why you'll find professional (addict :lol: ) gamblers will often bet on games and teams you've never heard of.



Thanks for the kind words and you're so right: (most) savvy bettors stay away from the "big names" in big games. Especially prime time games. The books want to get the odds out, for the following week, by Sunday night before the crowds go home. Lefty Rosenthal was the God of this...but even he couldn't get accurate lines out that fast. 15-16 pro games and maybe close to 100 college games. Look and you will find weakness.

There was a time that I had a very real (ugly) gambling addiction. I flew to LV twice a month from Hawaii. Every gambler will tell you he's wins....I think I actually did. I started winning as soon as I realised where the weakness' were. The book has to get those lines out and he knows which games will be most bet on. He concentrates on those (and prime time games).

I studied 40-50 hrs per week on teams like Brown, Yale and Columbia. I created my own lines before I'd look at Vegas'. It's not hard, but it's hard work. There were times that I would place my (large) bet on a team like Lehigh. The book (Caesars) would look at me and say..."you're the only one that has bet this game...what do you know"?. Sometimes my single bet would move the line 7 pts. I didn't always win...but I always felt good about my bet.

Another thing you bettors need to understand is that America loves winners. It's hard for the avg Joe to take the points, so typically, the line is inflated. If you are a big enough bettor, the book will work with you....don't hesitate to ask.


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 7:36 pm 
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HawkWow wrote:
RussellMania wrote:
HawkWow wrote:
Now that right there is respect. Basically, Vegas is just creating a popularity poll. More money will always come in on SF and NE so they don't have to make the odds any more tempting. We are far from the 3rd most popular team in the country, but Vegas understands the heavier bettors are football savvy, so the fact they have us at 3 really suggests we are the team to beat. I love it.

Edit: I misread Denver's line. We are actually at 4. But that changes little and what I said about us can be applied to (Manning) and the Broncs (who we will defeat in NY).


This is a great post. A lot of people don't understand that sports betting isn't just the odds that the team are going to win, there's a lot more that goes into it than that. That's why good, popular, teams are never smart to bet on because you're never getting your monies worth. This is why you'll find professional (addict :lol: ) gamblers will often bet on games and teams you've never heard of.



Thanks for the kind words and you're so right: (most) savvy bettors stay away from the "big names" in big games. Especially prime time games. The books want to get the odds out, for the following week, by Sunday night before the crowds go home. Lefty Rosenthal was the God of this...but even he couldn't get accurate lines out that fast. 15-16 pro games and maybe close to 100 college games. Look and you will find weakness.

There was a time that I had a very real (ugly) gambling addiction. I flew to LV twice a month from Hawaii. Every gambler will tell you he's wins....I think I actually did. I started winning as soon as I realised where the weakness' were. The book has to get those lines out and he knows which games will be most bet on. He concentrates on those (and prime time games).

I studied 40-50 hrs per week on teams like Brown, Yale and Columbia. I created my own lines before I'd look at Vegas'. It's not hard, but it's hard work. There were times that I would place my (large) bet on a team like Lehigh. The book (Caesars) would look at me and say..."you're the only one that has bet this game...what do you know"?. Sometimes my single bet would move the line 7 pts. I didn't always win...but I always felt good about my bet.

Another thing you bettors need to understand is that America loves winners. It's hard for the avg Joe to take the points, so typically, the line is inflated. If you are a big enough bettor, the book will work with you....don't hesitate to ask.


Awesome info! Which sportsbooks did you like to bet at?


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 Post subject: Re: Post draft Super Bowl odds.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 8:12 pm 
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Doesn't look to me like they figured in manning and welker's inability to do anything but choke in the playoffs



lol


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