The "what I expect to happen" mock draft, final version

Discuss your thoughts about anything draft related. Mocks, College and Pro. Knock yourselves out!!! RATING: PG-13
  • 2. Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M
    3. Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State
    4. Luke Marquardt, T, Azusa Pacific
    5. Stefan Charles, DT, Regina
    5. Kyle Juszczyk, FB, Harvard
    6. Duke Williams, S, Nevada
    7. Terrell Sinkfield, WR, Northern Iowa
    7. Cooper Taylor, CB/SS/LB, Richmond
    7. Quinn Sharp, K, Oklahoma State
    7. BJ Daniels, QB, Southern Florida

    Ten to watch for UDFA (Seattle has met with all of these players except Michael Clay):

    Michael Clay, LB/SS, Oregon
    Rufus Johnson, DE, Tarleton State
    Russell Shepard, WR/KR/CB, LSU
    Craig Wilkins, LB, Old Dominion
    Martel Moore, WR, Northern Illinois
    Perez Ashford, WR, Northern Illinois
    Mike Catapano, DE, Princeton
    Brice Butler, CB/WR, San Diego State
    Greg Herd, WR, Eastern Washington
    Justin Glenn, SS, Washington

    Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M



    It's impossible to know who's going to be available at #56. I'm sure there will be a few highly rated surprises that make it. Since I can't guess who those surprise fallers will be, I'm going to mock the player I think will grade the highest while having an excellent chance of reaching our pick. For me, that's Christine Michael, for a couple reasons (both of which have been admitted by John Schneider himself).

    The first reason is that Seattle grades by athleticism first. Christine Michael has one of the absolute highest athleticism grades in the draft. It stands to reason then that he'd have a very high baseline grade for the Seahawks.

    The 2nd reason is that Seattle grades based on roster upgrade. We don't "need" a top shelf running back, but we don't really need a top shelf anything right now.

    Christine Michael's exuberance from his VMAC visit was plain to see. I have to think he wouldn't have felt that way if PC/JS didn't do something to inject him with excitement during his visit. In other words, excitement is contagious, and I think Michael caught a case of it from Schneider and Carroll.

    Michael has been a draft riser and it's starting to look less likely that he'll reach Seattle's 3rd round pick. There are probably 20 different directions I could see Seattle going at #56 (including Kyle Long, despite my protests), but Michael strikes me as the most likely.

    Christine Michael had an offiical visit with the Seahawks.

    Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State



    I think Escobar is clearly the best of the second tier of tight ends, based on his tape. He didn't perform well on a track, but his field speed is above average and he's decent enough as a blocker. There is just something about the way Escobar reaches up and snatches the football that makes me think he's going to be highly productive in the NFL. His catching technique might be the best in this draft among the tight end group.

    Vance McDonald would not surprise me, and Nick Kasa could be an option in the 4th or 5th if they push this priority down the list. Kasa has measurables that are virtually identical to Anthony McCoy the draft prospect. I think Seattle would be fine with any of the top 7 TE prospects, but Escobar strikes me as the best value.

    Luke Marquardt, T, Azusa Pacific



    He's got a lot of Nate Solder in his game, and Solder was very highly rated by Seattle in 2011.

    Stefan Charles, DT, Regina



    Charles has Jason Jones type agility in an Alan Branch type body. Had he played for a major program in the US, I doubt he'd escape the 2nd round.

    Stefan Charles had an offiical visit with the Seahawks.

    Kyle Juszczyk, FB, Harvard



    NFL Draft Scout has Juszczyk down as a late 4th rounder. That's crazy high for a fullback, especially in today's NFL where the fullback is used increasingly less often. You watch Juszczyk's tape though, and you understand the hype. There's a lot of Gronkowski to his game, enough to make you wonder if he should move back to his original position: tight end.

    Seattle initially carried five running backs last season. They wanted to have insurance for Michael Robinson. Robinson is 30 years old this season. Juszczyk is also a versatile athlete, which will help his cause as a backup.

    Kyle Juszczyk had an offiical visit with the Seahawks.

    Duke Williams, S, Nevada



    Williams has the speed of Chris Maragos but the hitting ability of Earl Thomas. Assignment correct and a good tackler, Williams has the the kind of ability against the run you'd like for an in the box safety while having the speed to serve as depth for Earl Thomas. Chris Maragos is due $1.3 million this season. Replacing him with a rookie would save $800k+.

    Duke Williams had an offiical visit with the Seahawks.

    Terrell Sinkfield, WR, Northern Iowa



    I think Seattle will probably load up on receivers in the late stretches of the draft a bit like they did last year. Given that there are as many as 25 draftable receivers this year, you can expect some shocking quality to remain in the late rounds. I almost had us taking Cobi Hamilton here, but after researching further I ended up going with Sinkfield.

    Sinkfield ran an unofficial 4.19 (officially 4.33) at Minnesota's pro-day event, and did so in a 6'0¼", 198 pound body. Sinkfield isn't just a pure speed guy either- he's tough. Watch how fearless he is going over the middle and into contact. He has strong hands and good balance, and after the catch he's got good moves to go with his speed.

    Seattle is among the teams rumored to be interested in Sinkfield, according to Tony Pauline.

    Cooper Taylor, CB/SS/LB, Richmond



    I don't think I've mocked any player more than Cooper Taylor. Ever. You guys know the drill by now.

    Cooper Taylor had an offiical visit with the Seahawks.

    Quinn Sharp, K, Oklahoma State



    If Seattle is going to draft a kicker, they need to make sure he has a stronger leg than Steven Hauschka. Because accuracy hasn't been a problem for him. Sharp made a 60 yard attempt at his pro-day.

    Quinn Sharp had an official visit with the Seahawks.

    BJ Daniels, QB, Southern Florida



    One of my favorite late round prospects. I wrote about BJ Daniels as a QB to watch for last month, before it was revealed that he received an official visit with Seattle.

    Notes on UDFA:

    You can read my take on the UDFA list by reading through my visit series on Seahawks draft blog: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V.

    The only name not included is Michael Clay. Clay did not receive a visit offer from the Seahawks, which probably doesn't bode well if you want him to be a Seahawk, since local visits do not count against the limit. Still, I included Clay on my watch list because I feel he is superior in every possible way to Luke Batton, who actually did get a visit.
    Last edited by kearly on Thu Apr 25, 2013 1:34 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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  • I won't cheer for a dude named Christine. I just won't.
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  • Man, you went off the grid here! The only two I really have any knowledge of are the first two. I'd be pretty excited if we drafted Michael just because he seemed to be so pumped up about the Seahawks after his visit.

    I hope we pass on that Harvard fullback just for the fact that his name will cause spelling nightmares all over .net.

    Good work, i'll be watching for these names in the next couple days.
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  • Wow, no true LB or DT? I don't even care, if this was the draft I'd litteraly do a backflip. The top 2 picks alone are amazing. I hope you are right Kearly
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  • Seattle met with 7/10 of their draft picks last year before the draft. There's a pretty good chance that the majority of Seattle's draft picks this weekend will be mentioned in my draft visits writeup series. I'd recommend checking it out, at least to glance over so you'll know some of the names when they get called.

    Wow, no true LB or DT? I don't even care, if this was the draft I'd litteraly do a backflip. The top 2 picks alone are amazing. I hope you are right Kearly


    Stefan Charles is a DT (and is a steal in the top of the 5th, IMO). I don't have us drafting a LB, but I think Cooper Taylor could convert to LB if he wanted. In UDFA, I have us targeting Michael Clay (who's a LB with excellent tape but iffy measurables) and Craig Wilkins, who I initially had going to us in the 7th round before I changed my mind. Wilkins is a draftable prospect that's comparable to current Seahawk Allen Bradford.

    Edit: My bad. I had Stefan Charles listed as a "T" for some reason. Now I get the confusion. Fixed.
    Last edited by kearly on Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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  • This is another excellent mock. Well thought out, and filled with deft flexibility of available possible options.
    Insightful and built around team needs, talent level of individual players, and pick value.
    Nicely done.
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  • I wouldn't hate this draft other than I'm not sure I get the RB selection at 56. Escobar is the guy I want on our roster and I agree he has the best hands of the class. When you watch his 2011 tape, when Lindley was throwing it to him accurately and on time, he looks as good and plays as fast as anyone in this draft. I'm guessing Quinn Sharp has the leg to hammer it through the end zone on the kick offs? That is an upgrade we desperately need not the mention being able to attempt long FG's.
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  • Thank you, Kip, for all the work you put in again.

    I don't watch too much College football (WSU causes ulcers) but reading all your blogs, posts, etc. has made even this dolt feel like I have a good handle on the draft.

    Thanks for the education.
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  • RB? Really?
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  • :3: I absolutely love this mock draft except for the tight end. Regina, the receiver as well as that mammoth tackle i like the most.
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  • I actually like your "expected" draft better than your dream draft.
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  • Love Christine Michael.......nice balance of power, acceleration, vision/agility
    Reminds me a little of a faster Emmit Smith
    Im on board!!!
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  • I could seriously dig this draft. Definitely looking for a lot of risky high upside type guys because if Seattle hits on 2 of them, they'll have nabbed 3 long term starters in this draft (counting Harvin in there, of course.)
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  • Need an OLB badly IMO. Need inexpensive, young, interior pass rush. When would another RB get any reps in the current line up?
    The o line still needs improvement and depth.
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  • I like Christine Michael, but I really don't want to see the Seahawks take a RB in the second.
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  • hidn wrote:I like Christine Michael, but I really don't want to see the Seahawks take a RB in the second.


    We know from PC that in the USC days he often had a stable of star running backs, and unfortunately Marshawn isn't going to be able to run over everyone forever. From everything I've heard, Michael is absolutely elite in terms of athleticism for a big back. And if you saw those tweets when he visited, he would LOVE to be a seahawk. I can understand not wanting to take a RB that high, but personally I would be very happy if we got Michael.
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  • Missing_Clink wrote:
    hidn wrote:I like Christine Michael, but I really don't want to see the Seahawks take a RB in the second.


    We know from PC that in the USC days he often had a stable of star running backs, and unfortunately Marshawn isn't going to be able to run over everyone forever. From everything I've heard, Michael is absolutely elite in terms of athleticism for a big back. And if you saw those tweets when he visited, he would LOVE to be a seahawk. I can understand not wanting to take a RB that high, but personally I would be very happy if we got Michael.


    Don't worry, the guy who said he would never cheer for a guy named Christine and other .net guys who pre draft said they didn't like him would become his biggest fan the second we drafted him. :th2thumbs:
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  • What I see in this particular draft is a lot of guys with high upside who'll have to come in and compete. If a few of them pan out, then our team is improved and in a position to deal with salary cap issues a year or two from now. I love it.

    I'm really digging the CB/S/LB guy.
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  • I don't know Kip. It's a little bit of a let down for me. I really expected a DT or WLB in the second round. I just don't see the need for a RB that early.
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  • I am in love with Michael's highlight vids but i just don't see it. Not in the 2nd. Maybe the 3rd if he lasted that long. I like Escobar, but don't love him. He looks so light in the pants without the explosiveness one would expect. He is not Aaron Hernandez 2.0. I do like his hands though.

    I just see us going big this year early. I would bet that 2 of our first 3 picks will be DT and/or Oline. We really need a big body on our Dline more than any other position. I like the guy from Canada, but if he is as good as we think, how in the heck does he last till the 5th?
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  • JSeahawks wrote:I hope we pass on that Harvard fullback just for the fact that his name will cause spelling nightmares all over .net

    That's what nicknames are for. Nobody in the fan base has time to type Juszczyk, by the next morning he would be Ju, Jus, KJ, Juice, etc.
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  • Hoping you're spot on with the Sinkfield prediction. He's got the kind of speed that could really be the final piece to the WR corps, a piece that's needed IMO.
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  • I like how you put Cooper Taylor's position as CB, first.

    Brandon Browner better watch his back!
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  • Most of you probably don't know about Quinn sharp, but the guy is a fantastic athlete and player. he can punt as well as kick, has a cannon for a leg and his directional punts are very good. I like him for his versatility. And because he's a Cowboy.
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  • For those saying RB wouldn't happen in the 2nd:

    -We only have two RBs right now, three if you count Robinson. Most teams carry 4 or 5. Seattle is adding a RB, and in this mock I actually have us adding two since the team will want depth for Robinson.

    -Seattle is very picky with running backs. They want big backs with speed, athleticism and power with good tape. Seattle was very fortunate to get a back with those criteria in the 4th round last year. I had us taking Michael in the 4th last week because I thought he was under the radar. I was very wrong. He's looking like a near-lock in round 2 now. And for good reason. He has monster upside. If Seattle passes on Michael, there aren't a ton of mid round options that fit our criteria, and the ones that do wouldn't have a fraction of Michael's upside.

    -If we draft a TE in round 2, he's replacing the 3rd TE. If we draft an OT he'd be the 3rd OT in 2013. If we draft a LB in round 2, he'd barely see the field as Seattle is going very, very nickle heavy in 2013. RB is no more/less of a need than TE, OT, or LB is. DT is the only spot where I think there's much of a case of it being a true need- but what if the Seahawks view McDaniel as an Alan Branch type? If they do, DT isn't much of a need at all.

    -Is Turbin really the future bell-cow back for us? I think Turbin is great, but when I watch him closely I get Maurice Morris vibes. Lynch probably isn't going to fall off the cliff tomorrow but it needs to be said, he has a lot of miles on those tires and his decline, when it does occur, will probably be swift and unexpected. Shaun fell off his career cliff immediately after his MVP season, and it wasn't just because of Hutch leaving. I think RB could be a sneaky need in this draft.

    -I would argue that Seattle doesn't have any clear needs this year that stand out above the others- they can just draft the best player at a variety of positions that makes the most long term sense. Christine Michael has top 10 overall pick type athleticism. You can't say that about any other prospect at #56, period. The closest being maybe Menelik Watson, and Watson is extremely risky. Seattle drafts based on atleticism first, and they aren't pigeonholed into drafting certain areas early. I think they will probably just draft the best athlete at #56 (even Denard Robinson wouldn't shock me).

    Christine Michael is the best athlete that's likely to be available, and it's not even that close, so he's the pick I went with. I also think Menelik Watson, Brandon Williams, John Jenkins and even Stefan Charles could draw serious consideration as well as they are uncommon athletes.
    Last edited by kearly on Thu Apr 25, 2013 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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  • Kearly, do you think Christine Michael gets past GB at #55?

    GB has shown very strong interest in two of the players on the Hawks draft board - Michaels and Quessenberry.
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  • SDHawk wrote:Kearly, do you think Christine Michael gets past GB at #55?

    GB has shown very strong interest in two of the players on the Hawks draft board - Michaels and Quessenberry.


    Good point. Green Bay needs a running back pretty badly and they have favored power backs in the past.
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  • I expect the Hawks to take a RB at some point. Michael, Jonathan Franklin or Latavius Murray would be great pickups. IMO, Murray may end up being one of the steals of the draft and perhaps the only one of the 3 that will be available to the Hawks 3rd round and beyond. Michael ran a 4.54. Franklin 4.49. Murray 4.38. Murray is a BIG, FAST, STRONG back. 6-3 / 223. He excels catching the ball out of the backfield as well. I wouldn't be opposed to the Hawks drafting Marcus Lattimore if he's there at 56. I think the Hawks might be a team that could afford to give him more time to rehab and even stash him on IR for a year. I know there are still needs... but, depends on what value is left when it's time to select.

    I'm interested to see where LB Jayson DiManche ends up. I can't remember who originally posted about that player (Scottemojo?) Another intriguing LB prospect is Ty Powell.
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  • Nice call Kearly.
    I enjoy ruining threads by making them about personal attacks and then commenting about how personal attacks make the other person's argument invalid.

    :les:
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  • Blam...spot on!
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  • Damn man, nailed it. Impressive
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  • :)
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  • peachesenregalia wrote:I won't cheer for a dude named Christine. I just won't.

    Oh really?
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  • T-Sizzle wrote:
    Missing_Clink wrote:
    hidn wrote:I like Christine Michael, but I really don't want to see the Seahawks take a RB in the second.


    We know from PC that in the USC days he often had a stable of star running backs, and unfortunately Marshawn isn't going to be able to run over everyone forever. From everything I've heard, Michael is absolutely elite in terms of athleticism for a big back. And if you saw those tweets when he visited, he would LOVE to be a seahawk. I can understand not wanting to take a RB that high, but personally I would be very happy if we got Michael.


    Don't worry, the guy who said he would never cheer for a guy named Christine and other .net guys who pre draft said they didn't like him would become his biggest fan the second we drafted him. :th2thumbs:

    :13:
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  • I expected better, kearly.
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  • Impressive Kip.

    Did you enter the real rob report jersey give away for guessing the first rounder?
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  • HawkGA wrote:RB? Really?


    Yes, really.

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  • You nailed it kearly. Excellent work.
    When we traded down I wasn't sure he'd get past GB, but sure enough... they went for Lacy instead.
    Right on man! What a steal to get Christine Michael at 62! :D
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  • kearly wrote:For those saying RB wouldn't happen in the 2nd:

    -We only have two RBs right now, three if you count Robinson. Most teams carry 4 or 5. Seattle is adding a RB, and in this mock I actually have us adding two since the team will want depth for Robinson.

    -Seattle is very picky with running backs. They want big backs with speed, athleticism and power with good tape. Seattle was very fortunate to get a back with those criteria in the 4th round last year. I had us taking Michael in the 4th last week because I thought he was under the radar. I was very wrong. He's looking like a near-lock in round 2 now. And for good reason. He has monster upside. If Seattle passes on Michael, there aren't a ton of mid round options that fit our criteria, and the ones that do wouldn't have a fraction of Michael's upside.

    -If we draft a TE in round 2, he's replacing the 3rd TE. If we draft an OT he'd be the 3rd OT in 2013. If we draft a LB in round 2, he'd barely see the field as Seattle is going very, very nickle heavy in 2013. RB is no more/less of a need than TE, OT, or LB is. DT is the only spot where I think there's much of a case of it being a true need- but what if the Seahawks view McDaniel as an Alan Branch type? If they do, DT isn't much of a need at all.

    -Is Turbin really the future bell-cow back for us? I think Turbin is great, but when I watch him closely I get Maurice Morris vibes. Lynch probably isn't going to fall off the cliff tomorrow but it needs to be said, he has a lot of miles on those tires and his decline, when it does occur, will probably be swift and unexpected. Shaun fell off his career cliff immediately after his MVP season, and it wasn't just because of Hutch leaving. I think RB could be a sneaky need in this draft.

    -I would argue that Seattle doesn't have any clear needs this year that stand out above the others- they can just draft the best player at a variety of positions that makes the most long term sense. Christine Michael has top 10 overall pick type athleticism. You can't say that about any other prospect at #56, period. The closest being maybe Menelik Watson, and Watson is extremely risky. Seattle drafts based on atleticism first, and they aren't pigeonholed into drafting certain areas early. I think they will probably just draft the best athlete at #56 (even Denard Robinson wouldn't shock me).

    Christine Michael is the best athlete that's likely to be available, and it's not even that close, so he's the pick I went with. I also think Menelik Watson, Brandon Williams, John Jenkins and even Stefan Charles could draw serious consideration as well as they are uncommon athletes.


    Damn! Awesome stuff man. Way to stand behind your pick.
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  • lukerguy wrote:Impressive Kip.

    Did you enter the real rob report jersey give away for guessing the first rounder?


    You mean the first pick? No I didn't. I hadn't heard about that.

    bigtrain21 wrote:Damn! Awesome stuff man. Way to stand behind your pick.


    8) :thirishdrinkers:
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  • I don't know Kearly, you had us taking him with the 56 pick, seems the trade really messed you up. Great insight, I learned more about him today reading your comments prior to the draft. Good job.
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  • Damn Kip, I think you ought to apply for a draft analyst job with ESPN or NFLN. You rock!!
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  • You got the first one right... :th2thumbs:

    Batted .100 overall.
    P-Rich fo life
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    ImTheScientist
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  • I batted .300 last year and mentioned 60% of the players taken on the blog.

    This year I batted just .100 and only mentioned 45% of the players taken on the blog, though I knew of Luke Willson and stupidly didn't mention him. Seattle went waaaay off the radar this year. Reminds me a lot of what they did in 2011.
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    kearly
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  • Kearly its not important to me if you predict them all right or all wrong. I appreciate all the research you do and share it with us all here.This year i had almost no time to watch or read much about the prospects so it made me appreciate the effort you,Rob and other posters made to share knowledge and opinions.hats off to all the posters who put in the hours and shared ideas.Who is right or wrong is irrelevant to me.
    justafan
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  • justafan wrote:Kearly its not important to me if you predict them all right or all wrong. I appreciate all the research you do and share it with us all here.This year i had almost no time to watch or read much about the prospects so it made me appreciate the effort you,Rob and other posters made to share knowledge and opinions.hats off to all the posters who put in the hours and shared ideas.Who is right or wrong is irrelevant to me.


    Yep. Cheers fellas!
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    Hawkspur
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  • ASJ is probably my favorite NCAA player. If healthy (and on the field), I think this year will be the year he puts the final touches on his game. If I'm correct, and Price is protected(!) and gives us what he's capable of, I think ASJ will go between 10-15. It would cost us a fortune to move up that high. As much as I'd love to keep him in Seattle, I don't know that with the weapons we currently have, that it would make sense to move up. I do think we will have to address the position in this draft, though.

    As an aside; Everyone wants to hate on Jerramy Stevens (and do so with good reason). But I personally think Stevens was better (at UDub) than the great ASJ. Anyone agree or am I totally off base?

    On Clowney: Like USC, I used to hate the Raiders. Like USC, I now almost feel sorry for the Raiders. It's no longer fun, or sporting, rooting against them. I am hopeful they have found their QB in Wilson or Flynn so they can grab Clowney. I know Davis would have wanted him. I can't recall a more dominant, disruptive (Raider) since the great John Matuszak.

    Thanks for these threads, Kearly. I especially appreciate the film clips (and insight) on players I'm often unfamilar with. Great stuff.

    EDIT: I previously posted this in the wrong thread but it belongs in this one. I really am interested in learning whether I am alone in thinking Stevens was the better TE at UDub (and to offer props for Kearly's hard work).

    I apologise for my error.
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    HawkWow
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