Smelly McUgly wrote:
Good take on this whole thing. I would be inclined to agree with you except that Portis got a two-year deal. I don't know how it's structured, to be sure, but that indicates that the Seahawks have plans for him to at least some degree. If so, there is only one spot left on this team at QB. I would prefer rolling with Manuel or Scott over any of the guys listed in the subject line of this thread. Heck, Washington got Kirk Cousins coached up enough to do fine taking over for RGIII in limited duty.
Of course, this is all conjecture pending the next few weeks, but I am desperate to talk Seahawk football and so this is my theory on the freaking QB2 position.
To the idea of going in to the season (a season as a serious Super Bowl contender) with a rookie as your back-up I'd say, "be careful what you wish for."
Kirk Cousins saw all of 3 regular season games. He went ...
5 for 9 passes ... 111 yards ... 1 TD ... 2 INT's ... against the Falcons (Lost 17-24)
2 for 2 passes ... 26 yards ... 1 TD ... against the Ravens (Redskins Won 31-28 in OT)
26 for 37 passes ... 329 yards ... 2 TD ... 1 INT ... against the Browns (Won 38-21)
but against us (the Hawks) in the playoffs he went ...
3 for 10 passes ... 31 yards ... 0 TD ... 0 INT's (Lost 14-24)
In other words, his team went 1-2 in games he saw any real significant time in ... and really he's the exception to the rule. Rookie QB's (in general) tend to lose far more games than they win.
I was going to say that a Russell Wilson comes along once every 20 years or so ... but that really and truly isn't accurate. In fact, it's more accurate to say that someone like him has never come along and did what he did ...
*Montana started 1 game in 1979, so while he wasn’t technically a rookie, 1980 was his first season as a starter. Same thing goes for Tom Brady, as he started 1 game in 2000. Warren Moon technically was a rookie by NFL standards, but he had played 6 seasons in the CFL and powered the Edmonton Eskimos to 5 Grey Cup victories.
|Best Seasons by a Rookie QB All Time (Sorted by TD’s Thrown) [Final 2012 Stats]|
|1. Russell Wilson||2012||252||393||64.1%||3,118||26||10||100.0|
|1. Peyton Manning||1998||325||575||56.7%||3,739||26||28||71.2|
|2. Cam Newton||2011||310||517||60.0%||4,051||21||17||84.5|
|3. Andrew Luck||2012||339||627||54.1%||4,374||23||18||76.5|
|4. Robert Griffin III ||2012||249||375||66.4%||3,100||20||5||104.1|
|5. Dan Marino||1983||173||296||58.4%||2,210||20||6||96.0|
|6. Andy Dalton||2011||300||516||58.1%||3,398||20||13||80.4|
|7. Tom Brady||2001*||264||413||63.9%||2,843||18 ||12||86.5|
|8. Sam Bradford||2010||354||590||60.0%||3,512||18||15||76.5|
|9. Ben Roethlisberger||2004||196||295||66.4%||2,621||17||11||98.1|
|10. Matt Ryan||2008||265||434||61.1%||3,440||16||11||87.7|
|11. Joe Montana||1980*||176||273||64.5%||1,795||15||9||87.8|
|12. Joe Flacco||2008||257||428||60.0%||2,971||14||12||80.3|
|13. Brandon Weeden ||2012||297||517||57.4%||3,385||14||17||72.6|
|14. Ryan Tannehill||2012||282||484||58.3%||3,294||12||13||76.1|
|15. Warren Moon||1984*||259||450||57.6%||3,338||12||14||76.9|
|16. Rick Mirer||1993||274||486||56.4%||2,833||12||17||67.0|
|17. Charlie Batch||1998||173||303||57.1%||2,178||11||6||83.5|
|18. Troy Aikman||1989||155||293||52.9%||1,749||9||18||55.7|
|19. John Elway||1983||123||259||47.5%||1,663||7||14||54.9|
Technically, the record books will have Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning tied for most TD's. However, check out his interception numbers and the number of attempts it took him to get to 26 TD's. Fairly impressive body of work there by Wilson. That table also highlights just how special of a rookie QB class this truly is ... and just how much of a passing league this has become.
Sure it SOUNDS good the idea of bringing in E.J. Manuel or Matt Scott to be Wilson's back-up ... but the reality of it is that IF (and I know it's a Big IF) Wilson goes down for any length of time a rookie will lose far more of those starts than a veteran would. In general, if given 6 starts, a rookie QB (given this Seahawks offense) probably wins only 2 or 3 of those.
A veteran QB on the other hand (like a Thigpen for example) ... probably wins 4 of those [to say nothing of playoff football games].
No amigo, I'm totally comfortable with the idea of a Manuel or Scott as our 3rd QB (with an eye on them being the back-up in a year or 2). As the back-up though? I'm feeling a lot more queesy about that idea.
BTW what David Seven said regarding Camp Fodder contracts is exactly correct. I know a lot of people are all a-twitter over TE David Fells for example. The reality of that is that he MIGHT make the practice squad this year.