In-Depth 3-Segment 2013 Draft Prognosis

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In-Depth 3-Segment 2013 Draft Prognosis
Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:29 pm
  • I. ROSTER GRADING SYSTEM
    II. 5-TIER DRAFT NEED ANAYLSIS (AND SPECULATIVE)
    III. FULL MOCK DRAFT
    Roster Grading System: Grading system is based on Healthy, Active Players. Obviously there are certain GRAY areas that can also determine roster stock but I tried to rank/grade logically but simplistic as possible. The main, organizational goal I would assume is to get every player on the roster at a C grade or above. As well as, improve or develop every Starter grade level player (C+, B-, B) to B+ or above.
    A+ (Best of the Best Elite Starter w/All-Pro Level Ability);
    A (Sub-Elite to Elite Starter w/Pro Bowl Level Ability);
    A-(Great to Sub-Elite Starter w/ Pro Bowl Level Ability)
    B+ (Quality to Great Starter w/ some X-Factors), B (Serviceable to Quality level Starter),
    B- (Rotational to Serviceable Starter/ Key High Quality Backup)
    C+ (Quality Backup/Shows Starting Potential); C (Serviceable to Solid Backup w/ Upside)
    C- (Replaceable to Serviceable Backup)
    D+ (Highly Regarded Developing Players w/ Upside); D (Recently Drafted Prospects/ UDFAs w/ Promise)
    D- (Project Players/Practice Squad/ Fringe Roster Players)

    CURRENT ROSTER/ PRE-DRAFT
    QB (2/3): Wilson (A) /J. Portis (D+) / Open Spot
    RB (3): Lynch (A+)/ R. Turbin (B-)/ D. Coleman (D-)
    FB (1): Robinson (A-)
    WR (5/6): Harvin (A-)/ Rice (B+)/ Tate (B)/ Baldwin (B-)/ Butler (C-)
    WR: Williams (D+) / Kearse (D) Martin (D-) /Bates (D-)
    TE (3): Miller (A-) / McCoy (C+)/ Morrah (C-)/ McGrath (D)/ Fells (D-), Heflett (D-)
    OT (4): Okung (A) / Giacomini (B)/ McQuistan (B)/ M. Person (D-)
    OG (3/4): Carpenter (B-)/ Moffitt (C+)/ Sweezy (C)/ R. Johnson (D)
    OC (2): Unger (A+)/ Jeanpierre (C)
    Offensive Players will mostly take up 25 to 24 Roster spots.

    DL (under 290 lbs) (5): Clemons (A-)/ Avril (B+)/ Bennett (B) / Irvin (B-) / Scruggs (C)
    DL (over 290 lbs) (5): Mebane (A-)/ Bryant (B+)/ McDaniel (C+)/ McDonald (C-)/ Howard (D+)
    LB(6):Wagner (A-)/Wright (B+)/ Morgan (C)/ Smith (C)/ Farwell (C-)/ Toomer (D)/ Bradford (D-)/Knox (D-)
    CB (5/6): Sherman (A+)/ Browner (B+)/ Thurmond (B-)/ Lane (C)/ Maxwell (C)/ Blackmon(C-)/ Snead (D)/
    S (3/4): Thomas (A+)/ Chanchellor (A-)/ Johnson (C)/ Margagos (C-)/ Guy (D+)
    Defensive Players will most likely take up to 25 to 26 Rosters spots.

    ST (3): P, Ryan (A-)/ LS, Gresham (B)/K, Longwell (B-)/ K, Wiggs (D+)
    Will keep 3 Special Team players, unless Schnieder pulls a Ruskell and cuts Michael Bennett in favor of a 2nd Kicker.
    TURN DOWN FOR WHAT? -The 12th Man
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  • SEAHAWKS DRAFT NEED ANALYSIS PLUS SPECULATIVE
    (Separated into 5 Tiers: LVL A, B, C, D, F)
    LVL(A)bsolute Needs: OT, DT, WLB
    OT: McQuistan, Giacomini are in contract seasons w/ McQuistan probably starting at RG makes the need of a quality backup OT essential for now and the future.

    DT: With Branch going to Buffalo, and the Seahawks signing a lesser known McDaniel who was a solid rotational tackle behind a pair of stellar DTs (both of whom have been franchised) in Starks and Solai… look for the organization to get an early prospect with the agenda of not only bolstering depth but to crank up the competition between added and holdover players behind Mebane. Its also intriguing to see if Quinn has plans to incorporate Bryant at tackle more often now that Red has experience, viable skills, plus a big contract under his belt and is not just a player relying purely on his raw, athletic talent. As well as, see what D.Q. does to develop his former Gator DT in Jaye Howard into the mix, and what the further progression of Greg Scruggs brings to the table who is reported to have been bulking up. In conclusion, Quinn’s possible direction to move away from Branch, the speculation that Desmond Bryant was high on the free agent target list, and the Bennett/McDaniel additions all point that Quinn could want a quick-twitch-gap-penetrating-pocket-disrupting 3 Tech rather than a giant-gap-controlling-run-stuffing behemoth in this draft.

    WLB: I’ve actually settled somewhat in the Malcolm Smith camp for starting WLB, Seahawks have several options that can be switched and rotated around to whatever best suits their game-plan. They have Chanchellor who can play NLB at times if we draft or develop another big Safety on top. We have Avril/Irvin/Morgan that can share some reps at SAM moving K.J. Wright to MIKE, and Wagner to WILL, which would make a formidable Nickel Formation. Nonetheless, the Seahawks need to draft a player who they think can make a difference and compete to be a starter in the future.

    LVL(B)urning Desires: TE, 3RB, K

    TE: A Miller injury could be fatal to this Offense, which relies on Great Blocking to create time for Deep Passes, as well creating running lanes into the 2nd level. None of our TEs need to be featured in the game-plan as Great Pass Catching TEs. However, they DO require to be Elite Blockers with Reliable Hands capable of Catching in Traffic as Check Down/Safety options.
    3RB: Seahawks need to replace Leon Washington with a solid RB capable of being an exceptional return man. I doubt Carroll is wholly sincere about using Harvin as the Primary Returner especially if the Seahawks control the lead.

    K: Not the most glaring need but a substantial one. We have reliable options in Hauschka if re-signed, Longwell, and with Wiggs providing competition. But what the Seahawks are looking for is a franchise K that can BOOM them consistently from 50-60 yards if needed to.

    LVL(C)ompetitive Upgrading: NCB, 3S, 2QB

    3CB: Seahawks have added plenty of CBs each season to push the threshold of competition, it’s a passing league, and all our CBs need to be able to come to play. I don’t think this year is different especially with Browner in a contract year (albeit as an RFA) but questions linger like can Thurmond stay healthy? Will Lane and Maxwell continue to seize the opportunity of taking their game to the next level? What is Will Blackmon’s role if he survives?

    3S: We as fans like S, Johnson and Margagos. They’re top notch ST players, and are both serviceable backup safeties but both can be upgraded. Guy is physical and athletic but has yet to show the promise and ability of seizing the Big Safety position that he was drafted and coveted for by Carroll.

    2QB: Recently, resigned Josh Portis has undeniable talent, especially in our system but he’s raw, and not fully capable of being a legitimate starter if needed at this point. I also doubt the Seahawks can strike gold with another QB prospect late in this draft which is why QB is in my 3rd Tier of Need. Yet, healthy competition, great coaching, plus an elite preparer like Russell Wilson as mentor/role model and consummate team-mate could prove to go a long way towards any Offensive Prospect’s Development.

    LVL(D)epth Concerns: FB, MLB,

    FB: Robinson is in a contract year. And the Seahawks have no true back-up lead blocker in the case of injury. It would be smart to find a quality player they like in the later rounds and stash that prospect on the practice squad.
    MLB: Farwell is a capable, veteran Linebacker and our best special teamer but in the case of injury, I don’t think you can rely on his ability to be a productive, functional starter if needed. If the value is right this could be a position to upgrade or add bodies late in the draft to get through the crucible that is training camp and preseason.

    LVL(F)ully Loaded): WR, G/C DE, SLB, P, LS

    Not that any of these players are upgradeable through friendly competition, I just feel like the Seahawks are content with the players they have. At WR, Seahawks now arguably have one of the best and deepest 4 man grouping in the NFL with highly regarded Stephen Williams and holdovers Jermaine Kearse, Deon Butler, Phil Bates, and Charly Martin battling it out for 1 to 2 roster spots. At OG, Seahawks have McQuistan and the potential of James Carpenter to be anchors in the middle. With Moffitt as a decent backup capable of starting, and Sweezy with a mountain of potential to be a strong, impact player in the future plus a nasty competitor in Rishhaw Johnson rounds out the group. If McQuistan, Carp, and Moffitt make it out of TC with great health… Seahawks can save a roster slot by releasing free agent to be LeManuel Jeanpierre and have Moffitt backup C, w/ Sweezy backing up G. Besides WR, DE could be our most pumped and jacked unit on the roster if Clemons can return to health. Also, Irvin is bound to get bigger, faster, stronger while improving his technique and finesse.
    Last edited by Pandion Haliaetus on Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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  • MY MOCK:

    2(56): DT, Jordan Hill, Penn St. (6’1, 303 lbs)
    Some would consider this a reach but with most likely Hill is a gem that falls through the cracks for what could be a battle to get all the big boys at position. To me he’s very similar to what Brandon Mebane was coming out before we developed Mebane into a 1-Tech. Squatty, and thickly based he has ability to hold up blockers with leverage rather than size and power. Plus, a reasonably consistent ability to knife through and wreak havoc in opposing backfields.
    Trade Notes: Its very likely that the Seahawks can trade down 5-10 spots and still be able to land Hill and pick up an early 4th round pick in the process.

    3 (87) OT, David Quessenberry, San Diego St (6’5, 294)
    This is your typical Cable lineman… Tall, lean, athletic, smart, competitive, nasty, and possesses the integrity to possibly play every spot on the line including center. His versatility should instantly make him a valuable practice player throughout the season while being groomed to be the RT of future.

    4 (123) TE, Joseph Fauria, UCLA (6’7, 260)
    I’m hoping poor workout numbers can drop Fauria down a little bit, who was starting to become a rising star in some camps. He’s not a quick, fast, YAC TE that’s all the rage these days or even the highly sought move TE but he’s a huge REDZONE target and capable of being very good in our system with his blocking ability and blossoming skills as a pass catcher. He’s like a poor man’s Zach Miller. A John Carlson type player.
    Trade Notes: If the Seahawks obtain an extra 4th rounder then: QB, Matt Scott, Arizona

    5(140), Kerwynn Williams, Utah St (5’7, 190)
    I don’t want Williams because there is a feel good story being united with Utah St running mate, Robert Turbin. I want him because he’s Justin Forsett with Leon Washington speed and return ability.

    5(160) S, Josh Evans, Florida (6’1, 207, 4.56)
    Matt Elam was probably the player I wanted most out of this draft but without that first round pick it won’t likely happen. Florida had a great defense under Quinn and Evans was a good player with all-around ability. Draft him to challenge the other safeties and see if he can blossom into that Big Safety role.


    6(198) LB, DaVonte Holloman, South Carolina, (6’1 243)
    Seahawks need a weak-side LBer. He isn’t going to be a flashy, production heavy player but he can fit into the mix as a big, athletic LBer with good speed for his size and quality coverage ability as he played a linebacker/safety “Spur” position for the Gamecocks.
    7(208) DT, William Campbell, Michigan
    7 (214) K, Caleb Sturgis, Florida
    7(241) LB, Cameron Lawrence, Mississippi St
    7(242) QB, Nick Florence, Baylor
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  • Amazing string of posts. That was great. I really like that mock, and can't disagree with anything in the roster analysis.

    Again, amazing posts.
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    Maelstrom787
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  • Wouldn't think McQuistan will start at right guard... would've thought it'd be Carpenter at LG (McQuistan backup) with Sweezy and Moffitt battling for RG.
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  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:Wouldn't think McQuistan will start at right guard... would've thought it'd be Carpenter at LG (McQuistan backup) with Sweezy and Moffitt battling for RG.


    Well, considering if Carpenter can stay healthy and lock that spot down I would think Moffitt back up that spot.

    If its a Sweezy/ Moffitt battle for RG, then McQuistan really has no spot on this roster considering he's going to be making $2-$3 million and is entering a contract season.

    And I feel that Tom Cable isn't going to allow them to cut the linemen he says is the "glue" of the offensive line. Which is why I think McQuistan will be RG. I believe when Carpenter was healthy the few games he did play, McQuistan was at RG.

    I think Sweezy started only out of necessity considering that Moffitt was oft-injured and a little underwhelming at times.
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  • Damn. This just about made my morning. Woah. That was a great read from what HAS TO be one of the best names in Seahawks message board history. You really nailed a lot of key points. Thank you. Plus, you're probably driving English crazy by adding fuel to the "draft an OT" fire. :snack:

    As for the picks, I'd consider it a pretty solid haul, but I'm no authority on anything really. I'd love it if the Hawks got either of Quessenberry or Kerwynn Williams, both would be even better.

    Cable loves himself some McQuistan. I think Carp would play LG and McQuistan RG, with Moffitt backup at LG and Sweezy backup at RG until he's ready to take over for McQuistan. As was said earlier, when Carp was healthy this past season it was him at LG and Moffitt backing him up with McQuistan at RG. I think Cable sticks with his boy, even though I think he'd make an awesome sub who could play anywhere on the line.
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  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:Wouldn't think McQuistan will start at right guard... would've thought it'd be Carpenter at LG (McQuistan backup) with Sweezy and Moffitt battling for RG.



    Last year the in game carousel of Sweezy and Moffit was maddening. I think McQuistan is the best guard on the team. I like the idea of him starting on the right side if Carpenter is healthy.
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    CALIHAWK1
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  • I think they like Sweezy enough to try and force this a little. And another year's seasoning could be the making of him.

    McQuistan still has value even as a backup. He probably isn't re-signed, but he's superb depth even if Carpenter and Sweezy start.
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  • Gosh, I loved the write up and then hated the mock. I know we need depth but dang, where are the high risk/high reward players? Williams, quessenberry, maybe. The rest are just joes.
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  • Great mock overall, and I loved the position analysis.

    This is nitpicky since it's a bottom of the 7th round pick, but Nick Florence has said that he isn't going to play in the NFL. He's going to stay at Baylor and get his Masters instead.
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  • Great work, thank you. I really like the David Quessenberry pick. CBS sports lists him at 6'5",
    305 lbs., 5.06 forty and gives him a third round grade. So they agree with you. I thought he
    looked excellent during Senior Bowl practices.

    I like your 4th round too, particularly with the trade down and selecting Matt Scott who is one
    of the players I would like to see the Seahawks come away with.

    The only thing I would change is somewhere I would like to work in a CB capable of playing the
    slot. Darius Slay maybe or even Tyrann Mathieu. Most are saying Mathieu is a 3rd rounder.
    I certainly wouldn't trade the Quessenberry pick for him.
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  • Rat wrote:Great mock overall, and I loved the position analysis.

    This is nitpicky since it's a bottom of the 7th round pick, but Nick Florence has said that he isn't going to play in the NFL. He's going to stay at Baylor and get his Masters instead.


    That's cool. I couldn't really figure out what happened to Nick Florence... he was on some draft boards and then disappeared but you've explained why... so thanks.

    So maybe just replace, Nick Florence with...

    Alex Carder, Western Michigan, 6'2, 224, 4.62 speed.

    Had a down season injury plagued season with a poor supporting cast but he still was very good when healthy and also had quality 2011 and 2010 seasons.
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  • Coug_Hawk08 wrote:Gosh, I loved the write up and then hated the mock. I know we need depth but dang, where are the high risk/high reward players? Williams, quessenberry, maybe. The rest are just joes.


    I would like high risk/ high reward players more than anybody but this was something you could afford in a draft year in 2012, the 3rd year in "4 yr plan" with virtually no top tier free agents coming off our blocks in 2013. We could take those risks like with Irvin, like with Wilson, we could go on a whim with guys like Howard, Guy, and Lane plus draft a project like Sweezy and take all those risks as well.

    But after a super amazing 2012 season and securing that franchise QB, trading away picks for acquiring Harvin to throw that Superbowl window wide open for 2013 and becoming the team to beat on paper... plus the eventuality that a lot of players are going to be free agents in 2014 and a lot of players are going to be looking to be paid... I don't think the Seahawks are going to be looking for boom or bust prospects... They most likely are going to be want players that they know can help them right away and be productive... that already have quality NFL skills and won't care as much whether or not they have a high ceiling to be extraordinary.
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  • Also, another reason why I'm so high on DT, Jordan Hill as a Seahawks.

    1. He might not be the most physically imposing DT in this draft at 6'2, 303 (Rounded Up, played at 294 in college)
    2. He might not be the strongest DT in this draft with 28 reps but that's about where you'd want a DT to lift 28+ reps.
    3. He might not be the fastest DT in this draft with a combine 40 time of 5.23.

    He doesn't flash "greatness" in any sense of the world. But put him under a microscope and he simple just amazes you.

    1. His college production, again he's not the biggest specimen on the field, but he's a smart player who knows how to play football with intelligence using leverage to be stout against the run, and technique to disrupt the backfield totaling 123 tackles, 16.5 TFL, and 8.0 sacks in 2011 and 2012.

    2. Looking past his triangle numbers, he was very impressive posting 4.51 20 yard shuttle, 7.49 3-cone drill, and 1.78 10 yd dash at the combine.

    3. All that while recovering from knee surgery he had late in November. While putting on 10 more pounds more than his collegiate playing weight.

    Hill actually improved his 40 time of 5.23 to 5.02 at his Pro Day. 10 yd Dash (1.78) to 1.76. Broad Jump of 8 feet 7 inches at the Combine to 9 feet, 3 inches. And a vertical of 22.5 inches to 30 inches at his Pro Day. Which put him on par with most of the top DTs in this draft.

    Meaning this kid has a great work ethic and in my opinion will always be the type of player who won’t be discouraged by failure, wont give up when it gets hard, he will work to improve every day and not just for himself but to be the best he can be for the team. He’s the type of selfless player I want playing for the Seahawks. He might not be a monster DT in comparison to the other DTs in this draft but when you put everything together he’s has the tools and the heart to be a big time player for us and perhaps the future replacement for Brandon Mebane. Both players are built the same way. That’s why I like Jordan Hill.
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