Wilson's 2012 Pro Football Focus stats

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Wilson's 2012 Pro Football Focus stats
Wed Mar 27, 2013 3:16 pm
  • We already know Wilson had a great season in his rookie year. Not just great for a rookie, but great, period. Here are the final Pro Football Focus QB ratings for 2012, for the top 16 QBs. (I.E., the half that matters.)

    Image

    Wilson's tied for 5th with Matt Ryan. His 39.4 is a very impressive number. When you consider that he's a rookie, it's mind-blowingly good. As you can see, there's also a very steep drop-off once you get past #9, RG3. Wilson had a historically great rookie campaign. This, we all know. It's not news.

    What I really want to discuss is how he handles pressure. We all know he's a great scrambler, but there's more to a QB than scrambling when there's pressure. Passing under pressure is a huge part of every QB's game. The graph for this is even more impressive. Here are the Pro Football Focus QB ratings specifically for plays where the QB was under pressure. Not just blitzes, but any pressure regardless of whether it was the O-line's fault or not. I went with the top 18 here so as to include Brady and Hasselbeck. (I had to compile it myself in Excel.)

    Image

    Wow. Just...Wow. He ranked 3rd, and 4th on the list is a steep drop-off. I thought initially that his rushing stats were bumping it up; but nope, because Roethlisberger topped the list and when I looked up his 2012 rushing stats, I lol'd. The ranking looks to be pure passer stuff. Now, some very elite passing quarterbacks have negative ratings on here. Remember, this is only the PFF total passer rating for plays where they were under pressure; which means that throwing the ball away is an important part of this number. I don't know if PFF gives this a flat (0) number, or if throwing the ball away is a positive or negative one, since I can see arguments for and against it.

    Throwing the ball away could be positive, since it's not a sack or turnover; but if it was, I imagine Peyton's number would be quite a bit higher. It could be neutral, since it's really neither a positive or a negative. Much better chance that it's neutral. It could be a negative grade, though, since no positive play happened; you lost a down with nothing to show for it. I think this is by far the most likely way they calculate it, but it's probably not a big penalty. It makes sense; while throwing the ball away isn't really a bad thing, (million times better than a sack, or a bad-throw-turned-interception, or a forced fumble) it doesn't get you anywhere, either. Good QBs throw the ball away before any of the aforementioned bad things can happen, but guys like Peyton and Brady have a tendency to sometimes throw the ball away too early. PFF might even penalize them if they throw it away when a receiver was clearly open; I don't know, that's just speculation.

    The PFF under pressure ratings are definitely not ratings you should just use as your one big piece of ammo about how good a QB is, but they're very important. I was surprised Rapistberger topped this list. Apparently he really stepped up this year when under pressure, because his average under pressure rating for the past 5 years is a negative value, including his great 2012 year with this particular stat. Peyton had positive numbers (though never a double-digit one) for this stat every one of the prior 5 years that he played in, so I'm chalking his negative value up to being on a new team, still recovering from injury a bit, etc. Brady, on the other hand, had a negative value for each of the past 4 years. (5 years back is season he missed from the ACL tear.) Brees was negative 4 of the past 5 years, but had a good positive rating last year.

    So, will Wilson's great PFF under pressure rating be a fluke, like Rapistberger's was this year; or will he have a positive rating every year? I'm leaning towards the latter. Remember, running is irrelevant for this stat.

    I can't wait to find out. The 2013 NFL season cannot come quickly enough.

    Also, lol @ Kaepernuts. 14th overall, 9th under pressure. Not bad, don't get me wrong, but not like Wilson. You lurking 49ers fans can point to the NFL passer rating and ESPN QBR stats all you want, but they are both stats with a whole host of problems. (I do believe QBR will get better over time, though; but until that is demonstrably proven, it remains a "meh" stat.) We also need more data on both Wilson and Kaepernick to have a better long-term picture, which is also why I eagerly await this next season. Once 2013's over, we'll be able to evaluate them a lot more accurately. Also, everyone should keep in mind that no stat covers everything, though recent advances in "deep" stats, particularly Football Outsiders's DVOA stat, are making some of these key stats way more accurate and valuable than traditional stats have ever been before.

    (p.s., Dom; don't stroke out on me, I know you have a serious hate-on for stats.)
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  • Great post - thank you

    The one non-seahawks piece that I take out is I expect Cam Newton to run much more of a read option all season. Look at his number running - very impressive and doing that will open up his passing numbers. They didn't start winning until end of the season when they ran him more.

    I am also surprised about Brady's number under pressure. Seahawks got quite a bit of pressure on him and he threw the ball away quite a bit and even more surprisingly got flagged for it twice if I recall correctly (I was SHOCKED when he got flagged in the red zone since that never happens like that - correct but didn't expect it).
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  • Awesome post, Thanks
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  • Great stuff Roland. Thanks, G.
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  • That some amazing stuff right there. Really highlights how great Russell's season really was.
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  • You're a man amongst, well, other men. Thanks Roland!
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  • Very nice post.

    There is something that irks me about that list of "pressure" QBs- Matt Stafford isn't on it. He KILLED us in that Detroit game with plays under pressure. It was one of the better games for a QB under pressure that I've seen in many years against us. And wouldn't you know it, he sucked the rest of the time. It was just when he played us that he chose to be awesome.
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  • I will be monitoring this situation almost as much as you Roland. :pimp:
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  • Thanks, good post. Would have been a great one but you couldn't help yourself with the sophomoric and superfluous 'Rapistberger' and 'Kaepernuts.'
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:You lurking 49ers fans can point to the NFL passer rating and ESPN QBR stats all you want, but they are both stats with a whole host of problems.


    I point to passer rating and QBR too. You typically see Kaepernick's half season compared to Wilson's full *rookie* season or you see his half season compared to Wilson's first n starts, neither of which makes sense. Wilson will never be a rookie again nor will is his first n starts relevant to winning future Super Bowls. I believe that during the period from the time Kaep started until at least the end of the regular season, Wilson had a higher QBR and passer rating. Wilson had the 5th best second half of a season, by passer rating, of any QB in NFL history.
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  • "I was surprised Rapistberger topped this list. Apparently he really stepped up this year when under pressure, because his average under pressure rating for the past 5 years is a negative value, including his great 2012 year with this particular stat"

    I'm actually more surpised his number was negative the past 5 years. It's a common conception around the league (I don't know about personnel circles but media circles) that Big Ben is good under pressure: he moves around well, can scramble, and is exceedingly hard to bring down. He does throw the dumbass pass and throws picks when he holds it too long but overall I felt he made more positive than negative plays with guys draped all over him.

    Some of those stats surprised me: I knew Newton was a bad passer but 1.9 is terrible...he was also a better runner than RGIII which the mediots would have you think is impossible. I know Peyton gets rid of the ball quickly, as does Brady, and it's harder to sack them that way. The knock on Ryan around the league is if you pressure him, he doesn't make the positive play a lot. Funny, some of these stats confirm what you though, and others are surprising.
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:We already know Wilson had a great season in his rookie year. Not just great for a rookie, but great, period. Here are the final Pro Football Focus QB ratings for 2012, for the top 16 QBs. (I.E., the half that matters.)

    Image

    Wilson's tied for 5th with Matt Ryan. His 39.4 is a very impressive number. When you consider that he's a rookie, it's mind-blowingly good. As you can see, there's also a very steep drop-off once you get past #9, RG3. Wilson had a historically great rookie campaign. This, we all know. It's not news.

    What I really want to discuss is how he handles pressure. We all know he's a great scrambler, but there's more to a QB than scrambling when there's pressure. Passing under pressure is a huge part of every QB's game. The graph for this is even more impressive. Here are the Pro Football Focus QB ratings specifically for plays where the QB was under pressure. Not just blitzes, but any pressure regardless of whether it was the O-line's fault or not. I went with the top 18 here so as to include Brady and Hasselbeck. (I had to compile it myself in Excel.)

    Image

    Wow. Just...Wow. He ranked 3rd, and 4th on the list is a steep drop-off. I thought initially that his rushing stats were bumping it up; but nope, because Roethlisberger topped the list and when I looked up his 2012 rushing stats, I lol'd. The ranking looks to be pure passer stuff. Now, some very elite passing quarterbacks have negative ratings on here. Remember, this is only the PFF total passer rating for plays where they were under pressure; which means that throwing the ball away is an important part of this number. I don't know if PFF gives this a flat (0) number, or if throwing the ball away is a positive or negative one, since I can see arguments for and against it.

    Throwing the ball away could be positive, since it's not a sack or turnover; but if it was, I imagine Peyton's number would be quite a bit higher. It could be neutral, since it's really neither a positive or a negative. Much better chance that it's neutral. It could be a negative grade, though, since no positive play happened; you lost a down with nothing to show for it. I think this is by far the most likely way they calculate it, but it's probably not a big penalty. It makes sense; while throwing the ball away isn't really a bad thing, (million times better than a sack, or a bad-throw-turned-interception, or a forced fumble) it doesn't get you anywhere, either. Good QBs throw the ball away before any of the aforementioned bad things can happen, but guys like Peyton and Brady have a tendency to sometimes throw the ball away too early. PFF might even penalize them if they throw it away when a receiver was clearly open; I don't know, that's just speculation.

    The PFF under pressure ratings are definitely not ratings you should just use as your one big piece of ammo about how good a QB is, but they're very important. I was surprised Rapistberger topped this list. Apparently he really stepped up this year when under pressure, because his average under pressure rating for the past 5 years is a negative value, including his great 2012 year with this particular stat. Peyton had positive numbers (though never a double-digit one) for this stat every one of the prior 5 years that he played in, so I'm chalking his negative value up to being on a new team, still recovering from injury a bit, etc. Brady, on the other hand, had a negative value for each of the past 4 years. (5 years back is season he missed from the ACL tear.) Brees was negative 4 of the past 5 years, but had a good positive rating last year.

    So, will Wilson's great PFF under pressure rating be a fluke, like Rapistberger's was this year; or will he have a positive rating every year? I'm leaning towards the latter. Remember, running is irrelevant for this stat.

    I can't wait to find out. The 2013 NFL season cannot come quickly enough.

    Also, lol @ Kaepernuts. 14th overall, 9th under pressure. Not bad, don't get me wrong, but not like Wilson. You lurking 49ers fans can point to the NFL passer rating and ESPN QBR stats all you want, but they are both stats with a whole host of problems. (I do believe QBR will get better over time, though; but until that is demonstrably proven, it remains a "meh" stat.) We also need more data on both Wilson and Kaepernick to have a better long-term picture, which is also why I eagerly await this next season. Once 2013's over, we'll be able to evaluate them a lot more accurately. Also, everyone should keep in mind that no stat covers everything, though recent advances in "deep" stats, particularly Football Outsiders's DVOA stat, are making some of these key stats way more accurate and valuable than traditional stats have ever been before.

    (p.s., Dom; don't stroke out on me, I know you have a serious hate-on for stats.)

    Great find! :th2thumbs:
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Re: Wilson's 2012 Pro Football Focus stats
Wed Mar 27, 2013 10:53 pm
  • mikeak wrote:Great post - thank you

    The one non-seahawks piece that I take out is I expect Cam Newton to run much more of a read option all season.

    Aye, I agree. I suspect he might get them a winning record this year.

    mikeak wrote:I am also surprised about Brady's number under pressure. Seahawks got quite a bit of pressure on him and he threw the ball away quite a bit and even more surprisingly got flagged for it twice if I recall correctly (I was SHOCKED when he got flagged in the red zone since that never happens like that - correct but didn't expect it).

    Yeah, I was kind of surprised, too. Granted, his main man Welker, despite doing a LOT for the Patriots over the years, has also had a proclivity for dropping passes on a regular basis. I wonder how much that has played into Brady's negative number? :229031_shrug:

    kearly wrote:Very nice post.

    There is something that irks me about that list of "pressure" QBs- Matt Stafford isn't on it. He KILLED us in that Detroit game with plays under pressure. It was one of the better games for a QB under pressure that I've seen in many years against us. And wouldn't you know it, he sucked the rest of the time. It was just when he played us that he chose to be awesome.

    You probably don't want to know Stafford's under pressure rating, then. It was -11.1 for 2012. He literally must have been mediocre to crap under pressure against every other team last year, pretty much. Disappointing, indeed. Oh, the things that could have been...Picking up a win anywhere else would have given us #2 seed and a 1st-round bye...We'd still have had Clemons because we wouldn't have lost him to that so-called "field" in D.C., and it's nearly a guarantee we'd have beaten the Falcons at their house to make it to the Super Bowl if we had our only good pass rusher of the year. Oh, well...

    NorthDallas40oz wrote:Thanks, good post. Would have been a great one but you couldn't help yourself with the sophomoric and superfluous 'Rapistberger' and 'Kaepernuts.'

    Image

    formido wrote:I point to passer rating and QBR too. You typically see Kaepernick's half season compared to Wilson's full *rookie* season or you see his half season compared to Wilson's first n starts, neither of which makes sense. Wilson will never be a rookie again nor will is his first n starts relevant to winning future Super Bowls. I believe that during the period from the time Kaep started until at least the end of the regular season, Wilson had a higher QBR and passer rating. Wilson had the 5th best second half of a season, by passer rating, of any QB in NFL history.

    The vast majority of 49ers fans think that Kaepernick sitting behind Smith for a year-and-a-half, including getting to experience going to the NFCCG in his rookie year as a backup, is meaningless. They think he started fresh as a rookie in the first game he was a named starter in. :roll:
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Re: Wilson's 2012 Pro Football Focus stats
Wed Mar 27, 2013 10:55 pm
  • Funny that Joe Flacco, the highest paid QB ever, is on neither of these lists.
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Re: Wilson's 2012 Pro Football Focus stats
Thu Mar 28, 2013 12:38 am
  • Well, this list must be bogus. Everyone knows that Luck is the GOAT and he's not even on this list. Let me speak for all the media pundits when I say "Tsk, Tsk." [/sarcasm]
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  • Are people pretending that Roethlisberger didn't almost definitely rape a chick? Because Roethlisberger almost definitely raped that chick. Screw him. Bring it up as often as you can.
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  • formido wrote:Wilson had the 5th best second half of a season, by passer rating, of any QB in NFL history.


    Is that right? There are so many dimensions to how cool that is. So glad he's on our team. Man, did a lot of QB-needy teams blow a golden opportunity in the second/third round last year...
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Re: Wilson's 2012 Pro Football Focus stats
Thu Mar 28, 2013 12:22 pm
  • DavidSeven wrote:Funny that Joe Flacco, the highest paid QB ever, is on neither of these lists.

    It didn't surprise me, because he had a string of poor games and that led to the OC change, then he was en fuego. I expect Flacco will be ranking higher in 2013 than pretty much any year of his career to date prior to it. Time will tell.

    pinksheets wrote:Are people pretending that Roethlisberger didn't almost definitely rape a chick? Because Roethlisberger almost definitely raped that chick. Screw him. Bring it up as often as you can.

    Some people are, for sure. :roll:

    Jac wrote:Man, did a lot of QB-needy teams blow a golden opportunity in the second/third round last year...

    Yep, and it makes me smile every time I think about it. Jacksonville took a punter just before Wilson. A punter. They still don't even have a good QB of any kind. Just...Wow.
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