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 Post subject: Seahawks 2013 point differential has a chance to be historic
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:06 am 
* Mr Random Thought *
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During Seattle's final 10 games last season (including playoffs), they averaged 32.4 points a game on offense.

During Seattle's final 10 games last season (including playoffs), they averaged 14.6 points allowed per game on defense.

Who knows how Seattle does next season? It appears they will certainly have more talent, and should be an even better team. But lets just say that things remain the same and they continue that kind of production.

If Seattle posted 32.4 points a game on offense while allowing 14.6 points per game on defense over a 16 game schedule, they'd finish with a +285 point differential. The 2007 Patriots hold the record in this category, at +315. For Seattle to match that record, they'd only need to improve their differential by a little less than two points per game. And remember, this team added Harvin, Avril, Bennett, possibly more, and they still have their draft- and they did this while losing little of significance in free agency. Can Seattle challenge the 2007 Patriots' record in 2013? If they do, that means they are about to win a ridiculous number of games.

There was some burst in Seattle's 10 game sample- the 150 points over 3 weeks was a huge driving force in those numbers. But you look at next year's schedule, and we have more games to put on "blowout watch" than our team had in 2012. And obviously, if Seattle is pushing +300, they wouldn't just be having a great season- they could legitimately contend for a perfect season. It's not likely, but our team has a real shot at something that for most good teams is pure fantasy.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's fun fact.
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:37 am 
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I don't see our defensive dominance holding up like it did last year.

If our offense indeed explodes, and I think it will, our backups will be in the game and allowing some garbage time scores. Moreover, our run first philosophy is likely to decrease with the emergence of Wilson and the Harvin trade, not to mention PC going on record as saying we're going to pass more. For every quick score that gives our defense a lead, it also puts them on the field more often and in this pass happy league, even the stoutest of secondaries can be challenged.

Hopefully we can bend and not break and limit teams to field goals most of the time, and at least be among the league leaders in scoring defense. It would not surprise me if we dropped out the top five (but not the top 10) in yardage allowed.

Fortunately, the read option element allows us to overwhelm opponents, as long as we adjust to what they're showing us. People saying it'll get figured out don't realize what it does to the numbers game on the defense. You can't just assign people to cover Wilson, Lynch, and Harvin without losing coverage either against the run or the pass.

I can see a top 5 offense, top 10 defense, top 5 special teams year. If we catch some breaks with our east coast scheduling, primetime slots at NYG and Atlanta, I predict 14-2. Less then a 12-4 record would somewhat disappoint me, considering our talent level.

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 Post subject: Re: Seahawks 2013 point differential has a chance to be historic
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:41 am 
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I got reasonable odds from the bookies last week when I asked what they'd give me if Seattle scored the most points in the season whilst allowing the fewest. So come on boys, make it happen!


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 Post subject: Re: Seahawks 2013 point differential has a chance to be historic
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:12 am 
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I don't see this as likely.

Our team isn't really built to destroy teams like that. Although it can. But the formula is going to be to get up on teams and suffocate their opportunities. If we are successful, we'll intentionally be more conservative offensively.

Although then again, we do want to 'do it better than it's ever been done before'. And Pete does have a history of getting his guys ready and letting the dogs loose. Further, this is a team that is pretty deep. I can see us sustaining point generation even when games are well in hand. Pete believes in letting his depth play and play like the game is in doubt. He wants his athletes competing and that goes down to the inactives. So when our 2nd string guys come in, they are going to be trying to score.

So in summary, I have no idea. I'm just a dummy.


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 Post subject: Re: Seahawks 2013 point differential has a chance to be historic
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:18 am 
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If it helps us win the SB then I'm all in on breaking the record!

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 Post subject: Re: Seahawks 2013 point differential has a chance to be historic
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:20 am 
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12thMan1 wrote:
If it helps us win the SB then I'm all in on breaking the record!


One thing at a time.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's fun fact.
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:32 pm 
* Mr Random Thought *
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Lady Talon wrote:
I don't see our defensive dominance holding up like it did last year.

If our offense indeed explodes, and I think it will, our backups will be in the game and allowing some garbage time scores. Moreover, our run first philosophy is likely to decrease with the emergence of Wilson and the Harvin trade, not to mention PC going on record as saying we're going to pass more. For every quick score that gives our defense a lead, it also puts them on the field more often and in this pass happy league, even the stoutest of secondaries can be challenged.


Actually, this is exactly what happened in the last 10 games and Seattle's points allowed actually dropped. Even in blowouts our team generally keeps mostly starters in on both sides with just a few exceptions (QB, RB). Forcing defenses to go one dimensional is usually a very good thing. As far as scoring goes, a slim majority of Seattle's scoring last year occurred in the 2nd half of games. Even in their blowout wins over Arizona, SF, and Buffalo, they still scored a lot of points in the second half because their ball control offense is so good, it actually finishes those clock killing drives for points much more than most teams would.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's fun fact.
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:11 pm 
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kearly wrote:
Lady Talon wrote:
I don't see our defensive dominance holding up like it did last year.

If our offense indeed explodes, and I think it will, our backups will be in the game and allowing some garbage time scores. Moreover, our run first philosophy is likely to decrease with the emergence of Wilson and the Harvin trade, not to mention PC going on record as saying we're going to pass more. For every quick score that gives our defense a lead, it also puts them on the field more often and in this pass happy league, even the stoutest of secondaries can be challenged.


Actually, this is exactly what happened in the last 10 games and Seattle's points allowed actually dropped. Even in blowouts our team generally keeps mostly starters in on both sides with just a few exceptions (QB, RB). Forcing defenses to go one dimensional is usually a very good thing. As far as scoring goes, a slim majority of Seattle's scoring last year occurred in the 2nd half of games. Even in their blowout wins over Arizona, SF, and Buffalo, they still scored a lot of points in the second half because their ball control offense is so good, it actually finishes those clock killing drives for points much more than most teams would.


Yeah being able to make the opposition pass happy would help our sack total and turnovers. You don't need to have the premier D in the league yardage wise to win the division or championship just tough, opportunistic, and augmented with a potent offense to give them leads. Thousand ways to skin a cat.

Thankfully we still have Lynch and the Turbine to run an efficient standard ball control offense. Definately gives us an edge at slowing down the tempo late in the game. I just hope PC makes an effort to keep the Beast well under 300 carries this year, he's approaching the dreaded 30 for a power runner after all.


Figured I'd add this in, I don't exactly count the Buff and Ari wins as a sign of lasting dominance. Buffalo had a penchant for being blown out to the likes of SF, NE and even NYJ if I remember right. Arizona was clearly struggling with any team they faced at that point in the season featuring bad QBs and an OL that was believe it or not even worse.

The SF win is the only quality win in that 150 point stretch. And it's a win that I believe was time specific. We caught them at home, with an easily rattled QB with exploitable tendencies that our defense was primed to take advantage of, they're a division rival meaning we know them well, the emotion of the game, and we were in a fight for the division/playoffs.

I doubt that that lopsided of a score will be reproduced again next year against SF, although I think we will sweep.

I understand the thinking, but two bottom feeders and a high emotion game at the right time, isn't something we can count on to enlighten us on next season. I think we'll be good, I think our DVOA stats will be #1 for the year, but I think 150-30 3 game stretches are the exception rather then the norm. I see regularly winning by 2 or 3 scores if everything falls together.

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