The "what I expect to happen" mock draft v3.0

I'm going to take a cue from Rob, and for this one mock I'll present a scenario which may not be the absolute most likely, but contains picks that I think are more realistic than people might imagine. REMEMBER, THIS IS NOT *MY* MOCK, BUT A GUESS AS TO WHAT THE REAL DRAFT MIGHT ACTUALLY RESEMBLE.

1st round: Tavon Austin, WR, WVU
2nd round: Datone Jones, DE/DT, UCLA
3rd round: Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
4th round: Zaviar Gooden, LB, Missouri
5th round: Jordan Mills, T, Louisiana Tech
5th round: Montori Hughes, DT, UT Martin
6th round: David Amerson, CB NC State
7th round: Chris Gragg, TE, Arkansas
7th round: Earl Wolff, S, NC State
7th round: Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma

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1st round: Tavon Austin, WR, WVU

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For the most part, I've focused on scenarios where Seattle goes DT in round 1. But based on intuition and small bits of information out there, I think Seattle probably considers WR a round 1-3 priority as well, as they did with RB last year. I think Cordarrelle Patterson will easily top their draft board as he has the highest upside in the draft among the WRs. I don't think he'll reach our pick. I'm not sure Keenan Allen would either. That leaves me with Austin, Bailey, and Swope as the three best remaining by what I believe are Seattle's criteria. Stedman Bailey strikes me as a consensus 3rd rounder and Swope maybe a 2nd, and seemingly everyone has Austin as a late 1st, so I'm guessing Austin would be the 3rd guy on their wish list, and the best remaining in this scenario.

I hope I am wrong and DeAndre Hopkins is high up there, but he's a bit at odds with the kinds of WRs Seattle has brought in to this point. Justin Hunter is a fringe option, but I think he's unlikely this early because he has very little YAC ability despite being fast, and I think quick feet matter a lot to our guys.

I think there is a chance Seattle could make this pick because they feel good about their chances of getting a DT they like in round 2. For the record, I think there is about a 70% chance we go DT in round 1. I'm just covering my bases here.

So why Austin? Some have expressed that they do not think Austin is a great fit, or that he's similar to Deon Butler, who failed as an NFL prospect. There is some merit to those thoughts. However, I can see some logic to this pick for several reasons:

#1: Seattle does not need a starter at WR. Seattle wants to upgrade their WR corps, but they don't necessarily need a new starter. Rice, Tate, and Baldwin are more than a solid trio, and that allows them the luxury to take a player that, in a worst case scenario, might only be situational. I think you make this pick hoping that you can find ways to get Austin on the field constantly, but even if Seattle can't, the backfire won't hurt them as much as it would for many other teams.

The last couple years Seattle has rotated their WR fairly often, finding reps for guys like Kearse, Obomanu, Martin, Butler, etc. I think Seattle views their backup WRs as more than backups, but as a resource. Everyone on this roster is expected to contribute. That philosophy could work well for Austin, who might not be appropriate in run heavy packages. If you draft Austin, you have to have a plan to use him, but I think Seattle has shown many times before that they are willing to accommodate for a talent.

#2: Tavon Austin would be one of the deadliest YAC WRs in the NFL. Austin doesn't just run a 4.3 forty, he is a genius with the ball in his hands and can make explosive moves with minimal speed loss. Marquise Goodwin ran a forty that was .07 faster, but even he is no where near as big a pain in the ass to tackle as Austin is. If you overlook size, Austin is a top 10 talent in any draft. To date, both Green Bay and Seattle have strongly emphasized YAC ability in the WRs they have targeted.

#3: Austin is not Deon Butler. Sometimes, you have to look at more than size when determining how durable a player should be. Normally, a 206 pound mobile quarterback would be a massive injury magnet, but Russell Wilson has remained remarkably injury free in nearly 10 years of football from high school to the NFL. Part of it is his intelligence. He protects his body, slides, runs out of bounds, etc. Another part of it is talent, yes, talent, for taking a hit. His body just seems to know how to crumple just right, and he quickly hops up from even the most vicious hits.

I see a lot of that same "talent" in Tavon Austin. He rarely takes a big hit, and he just never gets hurt or even seems close to being hurt. I guess it's harder put a lick on a guy when you are tackling him by the shoelace. That's probably also a factor. Butler may have been fast, but he was never the threat after the catch that Austin is. Austin was the most dynamic player in college football, and players with his movement ability are so rare that I could see him retaining that distinction in the NFL. If Austin was 5'10", I don't think he wouldn't escape the top 10 picks. Those 2" do matter and come at a cost, but how much? Not all that much, if you ask me.

#4: Austin is not a diva. In fact, he has a remarkably sunny, fun loving personality and was a leader on his team despite being #2 in production behind Bobby Engram clone Stedman Bailey. You might not think that's a big deal, but I think Pete thinks it is. This offense is going to spread the ball, and it needs WRs that are okay with getting 5 or less receptions a game.

#5: Austin had over 300 yards rushing in a game against Oklahoma, and for his career averaged nearly 10 yards per carry. Austin could be a major weapon on reverses or read option plays. Seattle loves versatile players.

#6: Austin could be a phenom return man, and Seattle needs to start looking for an heir to Leon Washington.

Austin just seems like the kind of fun and unique type of player Pete would target. I could even see them having a much higher grade on Austin than #25 overall.

2nd round: Datone Jones, DE/DT, UCLA

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I think there is a pretty solid chance that one of Short, Williams, Jones, or Simon will be available at #58. In this scenario, I'm saying it will be Jones, though truthfully I think Jones will probably be a top 40 pick because of his athleticism.

Jones is, in my opinion, quicker and more fluid than Shariff Floyd, although Floyd is stronger and better against the run. Both are very similar prospects, both even have short arms. Jones had a pretty nice game against a very good line vs. Stanford, and did well at the Senior Bowl. I might rank him #1 in this draft class in terms of quickness for DTs, and he's got some lower body strength. Against smaller guards Jones shows that he can push the pocket with quickness and lower body power, but I think against bigger guards he'll have to rely on his upper body to win, and that could be a problem as his arms are a weakness of his, both in terms of length and strength.

I am warming on Jones, mainly because he seemed to be peaking at the end of his college career, and because I have faith in our coaching staff to get results out of good athletes.

3rd round: Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn

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Every time I go back and watch Lemonier (pronounced "lemonwa"), the more I think he's almost a slam dunk 3rd round pick for the Seahawks. He is extremely quick, almost violently explosive when getting up to speed. I think his short area burst is highly comparable if not slightly better than Bruce Irvin or Barkevious Mingo, which is saying a LOT. He's fast of the snap, shows great upper body strength when pass rushing, and has long (34.5") arms. His 10 yard split was 1.57, tied with Dion Jordan and just barely behind Ziggy Ansah (1.56) and Barkevious Mingo (1.55). Bruce Irvin had a 1.57 second 10 yard split in 2012. Lemonier is also 6'4", 255 pounds, and ran a 4.60 forty, which was also among the best this year. He plays his ass off too, and every snap you are seeing 110% effort from him. Tools wise, this guy is a 1st round pick, and I can't really understand by Mingo is a top 15 prospect and Lemonier is a mid rounder when Lemonier is superior to Mingo in several aspects.

I thought Lemonier stood out above all others during the combine in terms of quickness and smoothness. I think he has elite pass rush potential and fits the LEO profile to a tee. It would not even completely shock me if he was Seattle's first pick.

The problem with Lemonier is that he can get his ass kicked against the run, but unlike Irvin he's not clueless with his technique and doesn't have to "sell out" either as a pass rusher or run stopper. Lemonier has the body size and strength to be a better run defender than he showed, and it's worth noting that both Chris Clemons and Von Miller were once very poor run defenders themselves before being coached into being great run defenders. Unlike the diminutive and underpowered Mingo, Lemonier has the tools to be a solid if not more than solid run defender.

Lemonier is an underclassman, a junior who left early despite a statistically disappointing final season. He notched 9.5 sacks in 2011 but only 5.5 in 2012. The strength, quickness, and improvisational skills hint at a potential 10 sack a year player for a LEO role. Now just make sure he keeps his shotgun and six-shooters away from airports and nightclubs, and you're golden.

4th round: Zaviar Gooden, LB, Missouri

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Gooden is the fastest linebacker in the draft, and might not last this long after a really nice combine. Gooden isn't just track fast, he's extremely fast on the field and I expect him to play faster than Bobby Wagner despite a forty that timed .02 slower. Gooden is an attacking, downhill linebacker that can cover ground in a hurry. Haven't fully scouted him yet, but having watched about half a game I was impressed. He sometimes lets plays get by him, but his problems seem fully coachable. Seattle might have a much higher grade on him than this.

5th round: Jordan Mills, T, Louisiana Tech

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I'm just lazily plugging in Mills here since Seattle is rumored to have interest. Mills didn't exactly blow up the combine, so I think he's safe in the early 5th round. Mills is reputed to be a bit of road grader type and plays with a bit of nastiness, so he seems to fit the Tom Cable profile.

5th round: Montori Hughes, DE/DT, UT Martin

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By this point in the draft, most of Seattle's urgent needs will be met, and they might start shopping for value in what should be one of the most talent rich 5th rounds ever. I don't know if Hughes specifically makes it this far, but I think prospects roughly of his caliber will be around when this pick is on the clock.

Hughes is not a DE, but I'm listing him as one because I think he'll take over for Alan Branch in the big DT / Red Bryant backup role. Hughes has zero explosiveness but has a lot of raw strength and looked surprisingly fluid in combine drills. He'd make a quality 1-tech as he handles double teams against the run very well, but I think his real future could be in a Red Bryant type role down the road. Hughes has as much anchor as any DT in this draft.

I am actually not a fan of this idea, because I want to get away from the Red Bryant concept, and I think Hughes would continue the same zero pass rush skillset. Hughes is 329 pounds and like Brandon Williams there is shockingly little fat on his body given his enormous weight. He's a unique player and unique athlete, I think Seattle will have interest if he's still around this late, especially if Alan Branch departs in free agency.

6th round: David Amerson, CB NC State

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In the past, I'd mocked players like Darius Slay here, but after running a 4.3 I think it's safe to assume that Slay is no longer going to be a late round pick.

When Seattle selected Jeremy Lane in the 6th round of last year's draft, they did something that caught my attention. They used up all 5 minutes of their allotted time before making the pick. Most late round picks are made within a minute or so- teams know who they want and are often anxious to begin the UDFA blitzkrieg. But Seattle took their time. My theory is that Seattle had a tough choice to make- they wanted to pick a big, fast corner but they couldn't easily choose which one. Strange as it sounds, there are many athletic big corners that make the late rounds every year, although that might begin to change with other NFL teams catching on to Seattle's tactics.

Anyway, I can't really predict who Seattle will pick, but here's a name to highlight if he's still around this late: David Amerson. While many people think the prototypical PC/JS CB is a 6'3"/6'4" monster, many of their picks have been closer to or even under six foot. Extreme physicality is not an absolute requirement either as Lane and Thurmond have a more finesse skillset.

Amerson is tall and he's fast. He's 6'1" 205 and ran a 4.44 official forty. You might remember his name because he's the same guy that had 13 interceptions in 2011, setting an ACC record. So how is he mid to late rounder?

Well, basically Amerson fell back to earth in a big way during the 2012 season, when his ballhawking habits began to start backfiring and he ended up blowing coverages and allowing big plays as a result. There is no question that Amerson needs a great coach to set him straight. Thankfully, we have a guy who might be able to do just that.

I'm sure aawolf could probably tell us more, but what I like about Amerson is his short area quickness- his ability to explode either on the ball or in reaction to a play. His 1.60 10 yard split was among the best in the CB group, and it shows in his game compilations. His sudden explosiveness reminds me a lot of Walter Thurmond.

I'm not going to lie, Amerson has some issues in his play, but he also has really exciting upside. He seems like exactly the kind of player Pete Carroll would target and polish up.

7th round: Chris Gragg, TE, Arkansas

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Gragg ran a 4.50 in a 6'3", 244 pound body. A classic tweener, Gragg is stuck between being a giant fast WR and a diminutive but very fast TE. I think Seattle will fall in love with that versatility and take a shot with him in the late rounds if he's still around. Seattle needs a 3rd TE- but they also need a fast, tall WR. Gragg could do both, and is a better blocker than you might think for being 244 pounds. He's also pretty hard to tackle with those strong legs. I didn't expect that.

I don't know if Gragg lasts this long, but I do think Seattle will probably wait until round 5-7 before selecting a TE. It hasn't even been mentioned by the team as a need this offseason, though obviously they will likely add a 3rd TE at some point.

7th round: Earl Wolff, S, NC State

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Much like his teammate Amerson, Wolff is a physically talented and extremely quick defensive back in need of being coached up. He often takes poor angles or is overly aggressive, but you can see the raw talent. Wolff ran a 4.44 and when you watch him you can see he can cover a ton of ground. For comparison's sake, Earl Thomas clocked a 4.43 at the 2010 combine and Chris Maragos posted a 4.47. Wolff is 5'11" 209 pounds, and had an impressive 39" vertical. He also posted a broad jump of 11'2", which was tied for the best among all safeties.

Like Amerson, I expect a few fast options this late at this position. If Seattle just doesn't like Wolff for whatever reason, they can always go for another fast safety. I think Wolfe is the best athlete of the available options though.

7th round: Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma

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Stills reminds me a lot of Golden Tate: he's fast (4.38 forty), quick (1.53 split), has good running ability after the catch and is a threat to beat you deep on a post route on any snap. And like Tate, Stills has some issues to iron out in his game, though they are a different set of issues. Stills can frustrate with his effort going for the ball at times, and seems foreign to the concept of playing the DB on poor throws. He also drops more than his share. Regardless, Stills has 1st round physical talent in a 6'0.5" body, and he's expected to be a late pick thanks to a loaded WR class. Stills isn't the only strong option at WR in the later rounds, but I think if the Seahawks grab another WR super late, Stills has a solid chance of remaining available this long.

Explosive.

Those picks = very happy

I actually like this better than your dream draft. Tavon is so explosive just imagine with Wilson extending plays he (Tavon) would have no problem getting open. I would like to see what they do in free agency first before i take any mock drafts serious.

Like the picks for the most part but I doubt most, if any, will be available where you have them slotted here.

I gotta ask what it is you see in Gooden that makes you think he's what the Seahawks are looking for other than his speed? The more I watch of him the less he looks like a football player and the more he looks like just a great athlete.

We need a PKer that can make a 50 yard kick.

I dunno. I'm probably in the minority here, but I wouldn't be all that excited if Tavon Austin is the Hawks 1st Round Pick. Watching his highlights there, I just feel like the Seahawks have been there, done that. Jump in the time machine and go back to 1995 -- that was Joey Galloway. Galloway had 4.18 speed (I kid you not) and would do stuff exactly like you see on that highlight film there. He returned punts ... kickoffs ... and was featured prominently in the Hawks offense. But the Seahawks never truly won with him -- he wasn't nearly as much of a difference maker (in terms of Wins/Losses) as people thought he would be. In fact, Holmgren's first move was trading away Galloway to the Cowboys for a pair of 1st Rounders (who became Shaun Alexander and Koren Robinson).

Galloway had something though that this guy doesn't have -- size. Going up against some of the corners in the NFL who have the size, strength, and speed that they do ... I don't know that I see Austin having the same kind of impact in the NFL that he did in college. The NFL History books are replete with guys who had lights out speed and seeming game changing ability in college ... who did nada in the NFL: Raghib "Rocket" Ismail, Desmond Howard, Darrius Heyward-Bey, etc.

Personally, I'd be much more excited with Kawann Short if he's there.

This would be a great draft, unfortunately anyone of those guys have a chance to go before our pick. Lemonier is a guy i wouldn't mind taking in the 2nd, there a very few LEO options this year and he's a guy that fits that mold.

Kearly, who do you like more Simon or Lemonier?

I can't sell myself on believing that PC & JS want Austin. They have been so interested in bringing in big WR's that a shrimp like Austin despite his unique skill set just doesn't have the size this team looks for. We have gone undersized a few times (Thomas, Tate, Irvin, and Wilson) but when WR's like Durham, BMW TO, Braylon, and others have been brought in and the fastest guy we had in Lockett was cut I think they value Size over speed at the WR position.

Wenhawk":juvj81lk said:

I can't sell myself on believing that PC & JS want Austin. They have been so interested in bringing in big WR's that a shrimp like Austin despite his unique skill set just doesn't have the size this team looks for. We have gone undersized a few times (Thomas, Tate, Irvin, and Wilson) but when WR's like Durham, BMW TO, Braylon, and others have been brought in and the fastest guy we had in Lockett was cut I think they value Size over speed at the WR position.

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I'm not convinced of that either -- not in the least. Size (especially at the WR and CB Positions) is a bedrock principle of the Bill Walsh WCO. As I mentioned above, one of Holmgren's first moves was to trade away Joey Galloway (just not ideal size in his opinion). And what was the first thing that John Schneider and Pete Carroll did? They expunged all those undersized players who didn't fit that mold. Josh Wilson -- you're a hard working, aggressive, ballhawking CB -- but I'm sorry, you're just too short. Thanks for your time in Seattle. Ideally, I'd say the Sidney Rices of the world are what they're looking for in a WR. A Swope ... you can make a case for how he fits. I'm just not sure I can really say that with Tavon Austin.

I agree with Austin 25, and have felt so for a while.

1) JS/PC like Speed. You can't get a whole lot faster than Austin.
2) Leon may only have 1 or 2 good seasons left. The explosive return game and special teams are very important to PC. Also, I think Leon makes around 3.5 per.
3) Explosive plays was the buzzword last off-season. Russell Wilson helped with that dramatically, but I think they are always after a player who can shift the field in our favor, and has a chance to take it to the house every time he touches the ball.
4) Can you honestly imagine the re-option with Austin in the backfield? 4.3 at RB, and 4.5 at QB...something's got to give.


People may call this a "luxury pick", but I don't think that taking the most explosive player in the draft falls into that category. If this is the pick, I fully expect 2 WRs to be taken. Perhaps something like WR, DE/DT, WLB, WR.
I really think we are going to grab Desmond Bryant, John Abraham, ect.. in UFA. I don't think they will head into the draft in need of both an edge rusher and a DT.

I think it would be crazy to pass on Austin if he is there at #25, which I think is doubtful. He's too dynamic of a player

How we operate in free agency may tip the hand. If we go after DT/DEs in free agency, I can't see them also spending yet another 1st round pick on a defensive linemen.

I honestly don't know if I'd rather have Austin or a Hopkins/Hunter, but I'd be happy with any of them. We have got to invest draft capital in the offensive skill positions at some point. Wilson with another dangerous receiver is amazing to imagine.

theENGLISHseahawk":2yqmqh60 said:

Explosive.

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Like a baby's diarrhea.

Austin speed and abilities are very tempting to alot of teams, but I'd rather see us draft a Darrell Jackson type of WR. Just a well balanced of abilities, good size and durability average height over a flashy small guy. This is just my opinion. I favor Wheaton in this role.

Trade Matt Flynn and one of our 5ths for 2nd Rounder to JAX/CLE

1. Matt Elam, SS
2. DeAndre Hopkins, WR or Justin Hunter, WR (via JAX/CLE)
2. Vance McDonald, TE or Justin Reed, TE
3. Corey Lemonier, OLB
4. Montori Hughes, DT
5. Ricky Wagner, OG/OT

Sign Cliff Avril, DE and Desmond Bryant, DT

Love Corey Lemonier as pass-rushing OLB. Chancellor or Elam can play that role, too.

Hawkscanner":3r843ake said:

Wenhawk":3r843ake said:

I can't sell myself on believing that PC & JS want Austin. They have been so interested in bringing in big WR's that a shrimp like Austin despite his unique skill set just doesn't have the size this team looks for. We have gone undersized a few times (Thomas, Tate, Irvin, and Wilson) but when WR's like Durham, BMW TO, Braylon, and others have been brought in and the fastest guy we had in Lockett was cut I think they value Size over speed at the WR position.

Click to expand...

I'm not convinced of that either -- not in the least. Size (especially at the WR and CB Positions) is a bedrock principle of the Bill Walsh WCO. As I mentioned above, one of Holmgren's first moves was to trade away Joey Galloway (just not ideal size in his opinion). And what was the first thing that John Schneider and Pete Carroll did? They expunged all those undersized players who didn't fit that mold. Josh Wilson -- you're a hard working, aggressive, ballhawking CB -- but I'm sorry, you're just too short. Thanks for your time in Seattle. Ideally, I'd say the Sidney Rices of the world are what they're looking for in a WR. A Swope ... you can make a case for how he fits. I'm just not sure I can really say that with Tavon Austin.

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If one has to think this much about whether a player of Tavon Austin's caliber would be the absolute right pick at #25 if he's still available... let me just say this: YOU TAKE HIM. The team who takes him will not regret it. Every other team will.

I think what you see in Austin is already here in Tate in a large part, I would like to see a WR that is more along what Rice is or we want him to be rather. Maybe he will be this year. But big, great hands and good route runner. We have slot guys our downfall is Rice' replacement and back up.

I'd take Hopkins or Hunter over Austin .

Not saying that some of the other WR's in this draft wont have success, but I've seen what the Saints can do with Darren Sproules and Drew Brees. I think the bigger WR could be had in perhaps Mark Harrison, Rodney Smith, or even already on the roster in Stephen Williams. There are knocks on Hopkins and Hunter as well. Even questions about Cordarelle Patterson. I love Tate and Baldwin, but do they have the speed of Tavon Austin? Am I missing something there? That's a fairly large part. What I liked about Tate in college was that he seemed tough and caught everthing thrown his way... seemed to be fearless over the middle. Tate's production was questioned until this last season. Remember that Russell Wilson makes these guys look even better... so, again, think Brees to Sproules (even though he's a back.)
It's anyone's guess as to what the Hawks are thinking. I could even see them targeting Zach Ertz. If you listen to Mike Mayock's assessent of Ertz and what he brings to a team is a big TE that runs excellent routes like a WR, a willing blocker, etc., etc. I really want to give other teams, especially in the NFC West, another dimension to have to worry about.