Top 10 players I most want to avoid at #25

Discuss your thoughts about anything draft related. Mocks, College and Pro. Knock yourselves out!!! RATING: PG-13
  • This list consists of players that have been mocked to the Seahawks in the past or have been mocked in the first round in the past. So no Cornelius Washington's, obviously, but also no Alex Okafor's or Brandon Williams, who I feel are solid round 2-4 guys. It will also focus only on players who fit Seattle's areas of need (since Seattle drafts for need early): 3-tech DT, DE, TE, WR, LB. I don't think Seattle would go offensive line in round one, and if they did I'd probably like the pick anyway (epic first round on the OL). It also excludes obvious pure 1-techs (Jesse Williams, etc) because again I don't think those picks have any chance of happening in the first round for us, if at all.

    I am also leaving off players that I don't think are scheme fits- like Manti Te'o or Kevin Minter (not fast enough).

    Last rule, I am leaving off players that I think have less than a 1% chance of reaching the pick. So I won't bother including Floyd even though I think he's over-rated. There are some top 15 options that I think could reach #25 though, and a couple even made my list.

    Also, please don't buy into the hype that I produce. I'm just giving my opinions. Feel free to youtube players and form your own.

    Finally, just because I have someone on this list doesn't mean I wouldn't like them at #58. There will be a player or two on this list that I like but who I think is a reach, some players I don't like that make some sense, and then there's the Aaron Curry's of this draft: the prospects that are obvious landmines you can see coming a mile away (I warned about Aaron Curry for months before that pick happened. So did Rob and Snohomie).

    Dishonorable mention: DT Sylvester Williams. I like Alan Branch. One of the things I like about him is how he didn't cost a lot of money or any kind of draft pick. He's been a solid, all-around DT for us. I see Sly Williams as being Alan Branch with a more explosive first step. He's not a pass rusher, but he is a nice all-around DT. He's a safe but unremarkable pick for a team that needs to shoot for the stars instead. Letting Branch walk despite being low cost and then spending a 1st rounder on a similar player seems foolhardy to me. Williams is a good hand fighter but has yet to turn that into consistent production. Maybe Quinn could change that. I don't see the kind of short area speed to be a great pass rusher though. Not a high motor player as a pass rusher either. He wouldn't be a horrible pick, but I'd feel underwhelmed given some of the excellent alternatives. More of a "waste" than a disaster.

    NUMBER TEN: LB Khaseem Greene

    I am slowly growing to respect Greene's game. He does not play fast, but he is a solid, dependable player, the kind that screams Pete Carroll type. The kind that would rather prevent a big play than make a big play of his own. Not that he lacked for impact plays. The reason I have him on this list is for two reasons (and before you crucify me, remember that I have him at just #10 on this list. I am not trying to flame him):

    The first is that Greene isn't really a fast linebacker. His forty time was an underwhelming 4.71 officially, compared to 4.65 for Leroy Hill when he came out. I think Seattle badly wants to upgrade the speed at that position. Drafting Greene wouldn't give us a very fast linebacker corps, which based on the drafting of Korey Toomer and the acquisition of speedster Alan Bradford makes me think that's the direction he wants to go for linebacker #3.

    The second reason is that Greene is in my view far inferior as a prospect to numerous 2nd round linebackers last year, including Bobby Wagner. If Greene was in last year's draft, I think it's pretty likely he would have been a 3rd round pick. If Seattle passes on Greene at #25, they have a solid chance to get him at #58. Even if he didn't make it that far, it's likely that another attractive option at linebacker might. Even in a worst case scenario, reaching for someone like Zaviar Gooden in round 3 wouldn't be any worse than reaching for Greene at #25, IMO.

    Greene seems like a good leader and a player with a heart for the game. I just wish he played faster.

    I'm okay with Greene, but I'd like an option that's faster and that costs less if possible. I would consider Greene to be a decent, but underwhelming first round selection. Similar to Sly Williams, I'd see him as a wasted chance more than a disaster.

    NUMBER NINE: LB Arthur Brown

    Maybe Brown runs a 4.39 at his pro day or something insane like that. If he does, I might reconsider this nomination. But based on tape, I think he'll probably run around 4.50 and be a little bit like this year's Zach Brown. Like Zach Brown, Arthur Brown is fast and athletically gifted, but more of an athlete than a true linebacker. Despite playing middle linebacker last season he didn't show signs of being a leader, and would often jog in pursuit of plays.

    Brown also looks clueless in zone coverage and isn't the man coverage savant that Bobby Wagner is. He can also miss tackles, and has a slight frame that looks more like a safety than a linebacker. He doesn't look like someone you'd want to see dishing out a ton of hits. Also, his blitzing skills, especially from the interior, need a ton of work.

    On the plus side, he can cover ground with some of the best in this draft class. He's not afraid to jump into the scrum to make a tackle. He tends to read the play well, he's probably more of a natural linebacker than Alec Ogletree is, if only by a little.

    Brown is not an impact player on tape, and is a classic example of why 4-3 outside linebackers are being devalued by the league. At #58, he could make sense, but at #25 I'd feel like Seattle was grossly overpaying for a player that probably wouldn't make a huge impact on the quality of the team.

    NUMBER EIGHT: LB Alec Ogletree

    At first glance I really liked Ogletree, but I kept going back to rewatch him over the next several weeks and the cracks started showing up. Then the combine came, and we saw that he wasn't the ace athlete we thought he'd be, either.

    Ogletree is a great blitzer, but otherwise is undeveloped. What I initially liked about him was his physicality, but as I've watched him more I've seen that his physicality seems to have an on/off switch.

    Like Brown, I am not sure that Ogletree has a love for the game. His effort is all over the place. He just strikes me as some kid that plays football because he has some talent for it. Linebacker is one of those positions where I want gamers and diehards. I don't think someone like John Simon or Russell Wilson would have a DUI during the draft run-up. Maybe they would never have one ever, but that's beside the point. A prospect that gets in trouble during this part of the process sends a message that he doesn't care as much about his NFL dream as he should.

    On the positive side, I do think that Ogletree is faster on tape than his combine numbers suggest. I definitely don't view him as an average athlete. But I do worry that in a worst case scenario, he could be a bit like the Aaron Curry of this draft.

    NUMBER SEVEN: DE/DT Ziggy Ansah

    Nobody mentions this, but Ansah is one of the highest motor players in this draft. He is giving top effort every play. He's also a great athlete with well above average quickness. He has active arms. He has some core strength. He is versatile. I can see why the hype is there.

    Ansah measured 35.16" arms. That's outstanding. But quite frankly, I have a hard time believing it, because Ansah plays like he has short arms on tape. Like Sly Williams, Ansah has active arms but only rarely has that effort translated into results.

    He doesn't have a ton of upper body power, and seems completely unable to penetrate a gap despite his speed. He is turned away and shoved around by mediocre small school guards and tackles. Competent lineman bully Ansah. He looks like a 3-4 OLB being forced into a Jason Jones type role and is appropriately struggling because of it. He needs to be a 3-4 OLB at the next level. If Seattle drafted him, I think he'd bust unless he could improve his power enough to anchor as a 5-tech or his pass rush skills enough to be a LEO. He looks hopeless when placed inside.

    People think Ansah is a top 10 pick, but I wonder if reality could be different. His tape is nowhere near deserving of that distinction, and his combine only looks special when compared a fairly unathletic DL class.

    NUMBER SIX: DE Damontre Moore

    Moore had his moments at Texas A&M, but I always thought he was over-rated and now the draftnik community is starting to figure it out as well. He is a power rusher and those types usually don't translate to the NFL very well. He ran poorly in Indy. He has had off the field issues.

    I could see Moore as a solid 5-tech option, but would Seattle spend a 1st round pick to replace Red Bryant? I guess I'd actually like that pick, but I'm guessing they wouldn't do that.

    NUMBER FIVE: DT Benny Logan

    Logan has a lot of core strength and has 34" arms. That's about where the compliments end from me. He has absolutely no idea how to use his arms and almost never sheds a block. He doesn't have the quickness to be a 3-tech, but played as one, is listed as one, and might be drafted as one. I think he could be a solid 1-tech, and I guess if you taught him how to use those arms he could be okay. Reminds me of Brandon Williams minus the extra weight and excellent arm use. Why he's rated ahead of Brandon Williams, I have no idea.

    NUMBER FOUR: DE Barkevious Mingo

    Mingo is undersized and isn't much stronger against the run than Bruce Irvin. Mingo has "wow" inducing short area speed but lacks a pass rush repertoire and was essentially a total non-factor for LSU's defense. Unlike most unproductive and struggling 1st round DEs, Mingo doesn't have an abundance of physical tools and I don't see a mountain of untapped potential in a 4-3 defense. Maybe he thrives in a 3-4 though. In any event, just say "no" Pete.

    NUMBER THREE: DE Sam Montgomery

    Now we're getting to the really awful picks.

    I've long detested Montgomery as a prospect. He's not fast, not terribly athletic, not productive, and doesn't display anything close to a complete pass rush repertoire. Like Moore, he's a bullrush guy to his core and that won't translate- as if it was even working at the NCAA level, which it wasn't. He's recently run into some problems since the end of last season, and even his own coaching staff at LSU hates him and will bad mouth him to anyone who asks. I should really put him #1, but there are some players on here that I just hate even more.

    NUMBER TWO: DE/DT Datone Jones

    Jones is a good athlete. Good but not great. Jones was a stonewall machine at UCLA. He can be explosive off the snap, and like Ansah he's a high effort guy with some short area quickness, but the results aren't there and again it's from a total lack of pass rush repertoire. And before I compliment his motor too much, his pursuit effort has an on/off switch. He definitely has his lazy moments too.

    Even if you coached him up, his potential could be capped by his arms which are just 32.75" long, which isn't great. Brandon Williams' arms are actually a hair shorter, but Williams makes up for it with good technique and absurd arm strength. Jones has neither of those things.

    Sadly I could see this pick happening. Pete likes to draft players that need coaching up. Though this pick could actually turn out decent, I'd really prefer to avoid it at #25 when options like Kawann Short and John Simon will be available. I may not love the idea of Sly Williams at #25, but that would be a home run pick compared to Datone Jones.

    Edit: I have changed course on Datone Jones. He's better than I thought after looking into his game more, and fast defensive tackles are actually really good bets on draft day.

    NUMBER ONE: DT Johnathan Hankins

    I've watched him a few times now, and every time I've done it I've been left in awe over how bad his tape was for a supposed 1st round prospect. He was VERY slow off the snap. He's not athletic, even by big man standards, and isn't explosive. He can't disengage. Can't swim. He has feet like he's wearing concrete shoes. And despite being fairly large, he's not as strong as I thought he'd be and almost never pushes the pocket.

    I've seen him get pushed backwards on single blocks from guards... in pass pro.

    He also has problems against the run, which is pretty unforgivable at 320 pounds. He has a problem with dropping his head and losing track of the ball. He can also be driven back on single blocks. It doesn't take a double team to beat him.

    It shouldn't be surprising then that Hankins finished with just 1 sack and only 4 TFL's last season. Those are abysmal numbers, but then again Hankins had an abysmal season. His numbers from prior years were not as horrible, but they were nothing to brag about either.

    There is literally not a single nice thing I can say about him. I think if Seattle took Hankins at #25, I wouldn't hate it as much as the Aaron Curry pick, but I'd probably have to think it over for a day before I was sure.
    Last edited by kearly on Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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  • kearly wrote:NUMBER EIGHT: LB Alec Ogletree

    At first glance I really liked Ogletree, but I kept going back to rewatch him over the next several weeks and the cracks started showing up. Then the combine came, and we saw that he wasn't the ace athlete we thought he'd be, either.

    Ogletree is a great blitzer, but otherwise is undeveloped. What I initially liked about him was his physicality, but as I've watched him more I've seen that his physicality seems to have an on/off switch.

    Like Brown, I am not sure that Ogletree has a love for the game. His effort is all over the place. He just strikes me as some kid that plays football because he has some talent for it. Linebacker is one of those positions where I want gamers and diehards. I don't think someone like John Simon or Russell Wilson would have a DUI during the draft run-up. Maybe they would never have one ever, but that's beside the point. A prospect that gets in trouble during this part of the process sends a message that he doesn't care as much about his NFL dream as he should.

    On the positive side, I do think that Ogletree is faster on tape than his combine numbers suggest. I definitely don't view him as an average athlete. But I do worry that in a worst case scenario, he could be a bit like the Aaron Curry of this draft.



    I was really disappointed in Ogletree. I had high hopes for him after watching the tape on him and to see him half ass some of the drills at the combine boggled my mind. I don't think he is the kind of player Pete and John like.
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    bigtrain21
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  • We could do far worse than Kahseem Greene--I think he's a first round talent and I'd love for the Hawks to take him here or in Round #2. I hope GMs have evlaluated him and put them off their first round wish lists as well, so he falls to us in the second. I don't take much stock in the 40. Having watched it many times, its usually about how you get off the blocks. If your not a sprinter and have little experience in a sprinter stance, you won't do as well in the 40 yard dash. I think a 4.71 40 time is fine if the guy plays fast on game tape--and he does. That being said, I won't be too disappointed if we pass on Greene in the first round, so long as we fill a need, but if he's there in the second, I think it would be a sin to not take him.
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    aawolf
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  • Sam Montgomery would probably be my number 1 guy to avoid. Does he do anything well? Why is he highly regarded at all? I cannot think of a guy who I would be more disappointed to see as our first round pick.
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  • Montgomery = Lawrence Jackson 2.0.
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  • I know we need to add some upgrades to the front 7 of our defense but I agree with you about Branch, he has shown himself to be a pretty good reliable player and is strong at the point of attack, has length, and can handle 2 gap and one gap. He may not be the Rolls-Royce of pass-rushers but he is a solid DT that can fill in for Bryant or Mebane if needed. For a modest contract retaining him makes a lot of sense.

    I'm not certain Sylvester Williams couldn't be a good 3 Tech but I agree that he could flame out there and him and Jordan Hill are pretty similar and one will be a lot less expensive as far as draft capital. Not the worst 1st round pick in my opinion.

    I would love it if Pete and John just added some serious offensive talent for Wilson though like a Tavon Austin, an Ertz, Maybe a Justin Hunter(Pending a knee evaluation), and also a playmaker without a defined posistion yet (Denard Robinson). Two or three of those and maybe we start outscoring people to death instead of grinding out wins.
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  • JMO, but I think the "shock" at 25 will either be a trade down for him, or simply picking Justin Hunter outright. He's got the speed, the length, and the collegiate production that makes me think he's firmly on the radar for Seattle.
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