Random Thoughts™ on the 2012 season

Agree with everything you see here Kearly !!!

I don't know if Baldwin is strong at getting into space (thus being open) during those extended plays where RW is on the move. One would think it's easy to do but is it? Does it take a special ability to do that?

Maybe he's just not in a good position as seen by RW in those moments?

Kearly, nice write up, I will say one thing, Baldwin was pressed into use differently his first season as a more polished receiver. I think he was used more as a checkdown guy this year many times and so his routes did not give him many runs after catch situations. To be sure it's something to look at going forward.

The FB wheel route was a staple of USC's offense, particularly when Stanley Havili (now with the Eagles) was there. Teams knew that, yet they still struggled to stop it.

Obviously NFL teams are better at adjusting, but I don't see the Hawks completely abandoning this play.

sc85sis":2xlv3gym said:

The FB wheel route was a staple of USC's offense, particularly when Stanley Havili (now with the Eagles) was there. Teams knew that, yet they still struggled to stop it.

Obviously NFL teams are better at adjusting, but I don't see the Hawks completely abandoning this play.

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And chances are they won't until somebody actually stops it.

Kip, I have been watching the Seahawk games over and over again, and while I don't share your stalker label, Wilson has me excited.

Golden is on the verge of special. He has a contract year now, so I hope he has a good year. As much as Lynch progressed, I hope they scale back his use and make up the difference with a 5% shift to more passing and using Turbin more as well. I want Lynch healthful when the playoffs begin next year.

I know you like Bevell more than me, I want to know what you think of how he did his job in the first halfs of our two playoff games. The slow starts are a concern for me.

Scottemojo":3tx8fqb8 said:

I want to know what you think of how he did his job in the first halfs of our two playoff games. The slow starts are a concern for me.

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I'm not Kip but wanted to question this. Washington came flying out of the traps and our defense did squat. Am I right in saying we went three and out first up but after that, pretty much dominated throughout? And failed to convert more due to bad execution and individual mistakes eg Lynch fumbling on the goal line?

Versus Atlanta... in the first half you've got a Lynch fumble, a clear PC decision to go for it on fourth down that wasn't converted and then the issue with the clock running out because Wilson took a sack to end the half. All we seemed to do in the second half was execute better... and that's down to the players.

Scottemojo":32vmmfdd said:

As much as Lynch progressed, I hope they scale back his use and make up the difference with a 5% shift to more passing and using Turbin more as well.

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I think the 5% shift to passing will happen naturally. Wilson won't have to be held back, plus the team is bound to find another receiver to give Wilson more options. I'd estimate that at least 40 of Wilson's scrambles last year began life as passing attempts, and he just couldn't find anyone.

Its really hard to say. Seattle was a 2nd half team in 2011 too. I think it could be partially because of a rope-a-dope mentality. I noticed that Pete tends to play the defense conservatively in the first half and saving his blitzes for the 2nd half, perhaps as a half-time adjustment advantage. Maybe when Pete spouts off about winning in the 4th quarter, it's more than just a corny Disney movie cliche. Maybe he really believes in saving stuff for the end of games, or maybe he feels better about entering the 4th quarter down by a few points for the psychological advantage it brings. It really does feel like this team is more comfortable coming back than holding leads at times.

As far as why I like Bevell, I am not an X's and O's guy. When I hear technical jargon I check out in 3 or 4 seconds. I'm up front about that. But I know a smart, creative, polished offense when I see it. And sure, Wilson is the real reason why the offense looks great, but there were signs in the 2nd half of the 2011 season when the offense turned a corner with a sub-par QB at the helm. I'm not saying we can't improve on Bevell, but I generally sense a "fit" between Bevell and Wilson's styles, and I do think he's helping us, not hurting us.

As far as the slow starts on offense, I think that is a bit of a myth. Seattle had 9 games where they scored more in the first half than the second half, compared to 7 games where they scored more in the 2nd half (and one of those was by just 1 point- the Dallas game). There were two games where the scoring was even in both halves.

The NFL median for points per game last year was 23.3. So if Seattle scores 12 first half points, they are on pace to match or slightly exceed a reasonable standard for scoring. They exceeded that threshold 8 times, although they also had a few close misses. That figure is below average, but not by a lot.

In many cases, Seattle played well on offense early but just found ways not to score (among other things there was a pretty high number of punts in enemy territory for us last season). The Atlanta game was an extreme example- Seattle had about 200 yards of offense (on pace for about 400) and zero points. After a 3 and out to start the game, Seattle averaged nearly 50 yards per drive the rest of that half. You do that 100 times, you might have 2 instances where you are held without points. Atlanta players literally said as they walked into the tunnel at halftime that they could not believe it was 20-0.

Also, Washington wasn't really a slow start for the offense, Seattle had more points in the 1st half than they had in the 2nd half that game. They scored on their 2nd drive of the game and pretty much took control from then on.

kearly":3dmvuve8 said:

Its really hard to say. Seattle was a 2nd half team in 2011 too. I think it could be partially because of a rope-a-dope mentality. I noticed that Pete tends to play the defense conservatively in the first half and saving his blitzes for the 2nd half, perhaps as a half-time adjustment advantage. Maybe when Pete spouts off about winning in the 4th quarter, it's more than just a corny Disney movie cliche. Maybe he really believes in saving stuff for the end of games, or maybe he feels better about entering the 4th quarter down by a few points for the psychological advantage it brings. It really does feel like this team is more comfortable coming back than holding leads at times.

As far as why I like Bevell, I am not an X's and O's guy. When I hear technical jargon I check out in 3 or 4 seconds. I'm up front about that. But I know a smart, creative, polished offense when I see it. And sure, Wilson is the real reason why the offense looks great, but there were signs in the 2nd half of the 2011 season when the offense turned a corner with a sub-par QB at the helm. I'm not saying we can't improve on Bevell, but I generally sense a "fit" between Bevell and Wilson's styles, and I do think he's helping us, not hurting us.

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I don't think he is hurting us either. I just don't feel like he is suddenly a genius. When he had Jackson, meh. When he had a healthy Favre (who did whatever he wanted anyway) and with Wilson, Bevell is looking good. Common denominator? Bevell was at his stone cold best when he let the QB take over (see the final two drives of the Bears game). I don't sense a perfect fit, no more than I sense that the OC at Wisconsin had a fit with Wilson. Wilson fits the football field, and whatever OC gets to coach him is going to smell like roses unless he is a total dipshit.

Bevell did a decent job this year, but lets not pretend he is dissecting defenses like a surgeon. Kip looks at Golden's 15.3 per catch and exults, I look at his 688 yards and think we wasted a fantastic weapon that could have produced 50% more.



@ English. How do you give Bevell credit for the success, but blame player execution for the failures? You mention the 4th down play against the Falcons, but what about the terrible play call the previous 3rd down? I guess in the spirit of positivity, what do you think Bevell needs to do better in 2013 than he did in 2012?

I should mention this before I forget:

In fairness to Baldwin, slot WRs have lower yards per target across the board than outside WRs do. IIRC, Baldwin saw a lot of action outside in 2011 and that likely explains a portion of the dropoff. I also think Baldwin played much better later in the year, even though his stats didn't really reflect it. As someone else said, injuries were a factor but we should have expected that given his frame and history.

Overall, Baldwin is hardly a bum, and I think his negative WPA score is more of a reason to hate on WPA than to hate on Baldwin. That said, the indicators are not especially flattering, and neither was the eyeball test for much of the season. I just see it as the biggest area for upgrade in the WR corps. I'd love to bring in a clutch WR with underrated athleticism like Ryan Swope and have him compete with Baldwin at the slot this summer.

kearly":1zs1ysr4 said:

I should mention this before I forget:

In fairness to Baldwin, slot WRs have lower yards per target across the board than outside WRs do. IIRC, Baldwin saw a lot of action outside in 2011 and that likely explains a portion of the dropoff. I also think Baldwin played much better later in the year, even though his stats didn't really reflect it. As someone else said, injuries were a factor but we should have expected that given his frame and history.

Overall, Baldwin is hardly a bum, and I think his negative WPA score is more of a reason to hate on WPA than to hate on Baldwin. That said, the indicators are not especially flattering, and neither was the eyeball test for much of the season. I just see it as the biggest area for upgrade in the WR corps. I'd love to bring in a clutch WR with underrated athleticism like Ryan Swope and have him compete with Baldwin at the slot this summer.

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After Baldwin got his teeth knocked out in Arizona, and then had a couple of more injuries, he took a while to get right. The tipped ball for an interception by Baldwin in St Louis stood out as a game changer. When he did get healthy, he looked good. The SF game stood out.

Scottemojo":308nl8g6 said:

I don't think he is hurting us either. I just don't feel like he is suddenly a genius. When he had Jackson, meh. When he had a healthy Favre (who did whatever he wanted anyway) and with Wilson, Bevell is looking good. Common denominator? Bevell was at his stone cold best when he let the QB take over (see the final two drives of the Bears game). I don't sense a perfect fit, no more than I sense that the OC at Wisconsin had a fit with Wilson. Wilson fits the football field, and whatever OC gets to coach him is going to smell like roses unless he is a total dipshit.

Bevell did a decent job this year, but lets not pretend he is dissecting defenses like a surgeon. Kip looks at Golden's 15.3 per catch and exults, I look at his 688 yards and think we wasted a fantastic weapon that could have produced 50% more.

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Well, Wilson's production did explode when he went to Wisconsin. Part of that is supporting cast, but to come in during year one and performing like that is I think a massive testament to Wisconsin's coaching staff. Seattle's too.

I do not think Bevell is a genius, but he does have his moments where I think he's brilliant.

Also, I'm not really sure if Tate's targets being low is something I'd consider an awful thing, or for that matter, something that's even within Bevell's control. Bevell may draw up the play, but it's Wilson who chooses which reads to check, and which target to throw at. Like any great point guard at QB, Wilson is adept at keeping his options open and the last thing he'd ever do is lock onto a guy. When he was at Wisconsin he had the hyped Nick Toon, but actually passed to unheralded guys like Jared Abbrederis just as often because Abbrederis just knew how to get open. Tate's lack of targets is really more a function of how many quality options Wilson had at his disposal last season.

I'd love to see Tate's targets go up, but not if it means Wilson starts locking onto him. I'd prefer to see those targets increase on ad-libbed plays where Wilson needs help unloading the football, and that's on Tate's shoulders to develop the ability to improvise and figure out where the QB wants him to be on extended plays.

BTW, Kip, with all my whiny ass comments about Bevell, I forgot to say: Nice writeup. You scary bastard. If you do Halloween dressed as Ashton Meem, your next stop after that will be the Nut Hut. Then you might miss the Super Bowl.

Scottemojo":5ft51qsj said:

@ English. How do you give Bevell credit for the success, but blame player execution for the failures? You mention the 4th down play against the Falcons, but what about the terrible play call the previous 3rd down? I guess in the spirit of positivity, what do you think Bevell needs to do better in 2013 than he did in 2012?

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Wasn't the previous play call a run up the middle on 3rd and 1? We executed those pretty well all season. I don't recall being annoyed with that call. I was disappointed they went for it on fourth though.

And yes you can blame players and not the coach when a running back throws the ball up in midfield like Lynch did vs Atlanta, or fumbles on the one yard line as he did against Washington, or when Sweezy gets hopelessly destroyed in a 1v1 block that gets your QB sacked so time expires vs the Falcons. As Kip says, the slow starts thing is a myth. In that first half against Atlanta, too many players made too many mistakes that as a coach it's difficult to account for. They were extremely uncharacteristic too. And the one big coaching error was by PC in my view, going for it on 4th when we could've been at 13-3 with a bit of momentum instead of 20-0.

Personally I don't see any reason to be negative about Bevell. I think he's doing a fantastic job. I think we saw an elite offensive unit by the end of the year despite hosting several young players. He used a scheme that mixed together a conservative approach with trick plays, a dominating a run game and a blossoming passing attack. I have to think Bevell has had at least some positive impact on Russell Wilson's superb start in the pro's and perhaps had quite a lot of influence.

Are there things he can do better? Well we can continue to help Wilson deal with the blitz a little better but that's just an experience thing. But I'm struggling to think of much else. I couldn't be happier with our offensive coordinator and sometimes I wonder what people expect. The perfect play caller doesn't exist.

Nice writeup ….. appreciate your thoughts. Here are a few random reflections.

Marshawn Lynch continues to show the way in style and attitude.

Golden Tate cut way down on his negative plays in 2012. He looked more consistent and focused as he progressed thru the season .... as one would expect from an emerging starter.

Fearless Doug Baldwin made great progress toward recovering from the trauma of 2012 …. while Anthony McCoy made real progress in eliminating negative plays.

Darrell Bevel won me over in 2012. Last year, I couldn't think of any other passing coordinator / play caller that was more accommodating to all of those around him. I find Darrell Bevell to be remarkable at keeping his ego in check while building consensus and execution. Although I have no way of knowing for sure, I think his predecessor may have struggled in this area.

Russell Wilson is my all time favorite 2an baseman. Some may have been puzzled by his stated post season determination to work on his footwork. Not me .... it's a preoccupation.

By the way, Wilson and Bevell share a common characteristic in their desire to accommodate and be inclusive of everyone.

Offensive line …. I think the right side complements the left side. The contrast between Carpenter (power) and Sweezy (movement) jumps off the screen. It seems to me that right guard is tasked with covering more lateral range than the left guard. I like what I've seen of Wilson's read option to that side. I thought the right guards along with the right tackle Giacomini became more skilled at avoiding penalties and blocking for an often out of the pocket moving quarterback.

Defensive line …... Scruggs and Irvin were encouraging rookie additions. But, I'm concerned about the loss of veteran speed starter Chris Clemons being compounded with the potential loss of veteran power player Allen Branch. Are defensive power linemen under valued and under appreciate in Seattle? Is this an area of legitimate vulnerability?

Stating the obvious …..... Outside the box players like Red Bryant and Brandon Browner will continue to draw criticism for being too far outside of typical norms .... as many struggle at understanding their roles and style.

Great stuff as usual. Insightful, informative and thought-provoking. Thank you.

Since there are a shrinking number of roster spots available, what do you think
of the idea of trading players/draft picks/future draft picks in order to move up
into range of Richardson or Floyd? What do you think it would take and is it
worth it?

Wilson's success at Wisconsin was attributed to the coaching staff in that gave him a scholarship and a chance to compete for the starting job. Nobody would consider any of the group to be elite coaches.

Shortly into the competition his main rival suffered an elbow injury ending his season. I had a moment of reflection on that last summer.

kearly":vw5ji0ds said:

I'm not saying we can't improve on Bevell, but I generally sense a "fit" between Bevell and Wilson's styles, and I do think he's helping us, not hurting us.

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Kip, do you think that Bevell also having gone to Wisconsin has given him insider info on how to get the most out of Wilson? I know you've seen those Wisconsin highlights over and over again and you just got the feel that the Badgers used him to maximum effectiveness, kinda like the Hawks did towards the end of the season. I wonder if Bevell was getting the scoop on Wilson from Barry Alvarez, Bielema, etc. in 2011. Just an idea.

This was a great read. Thanks.

Scottemojo":vw5ji0ds said:

Kip, I have been watching the Seahawk games over and over again, and while I don't share your stalker label, Wilson has me excited.

Golden is on the verge of special. He has a contract year now, so I hope he has a good year. As much as Lynch progressed, I hope they scale back his use and make up the difference with a 5% shift to more passing and using Turbin more as well. I want Lynch healthful when the playoffs begin next year.

I know you like Bevell more than me, I want to know what you think of how he did his job in the first halfs of our two playoff games. The slow starts are a concern for me.

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Agreed about Golden, I think he has that Year 4 Jordy Nelson type breakout season in 2013. Forgot that it was a contract season, so that just adds to the probability that he'll go off. I agree with you on Lynch/Turbin as well. I was kinda hoping that Turbin would be more involved in the offense this season as a matter of fact. I think he'll get more opportunities next season. Pete and Co. know how important Beast Mode is to this offense/team and to the team's identity in general.

I agree with Kip that the slow starts are more Pete's doing. It does seem he loves coming out ahead in the "halftime adjustments" department.

First of all, I start off with an apology. Kearly, you said that if we started Wilson, we would go to the Superbowl, and this was around TC time or preseason. My response was something along the lines of "ludicrous". Well, you were very right, and I apologize for being recalcitrant on the matter.

I thought Wilson had the potential to be good, but I bought into the conventional physical metrics. I thought Wilson would be better than Flynn, but needed to sit behind him for a year to figure out how to mesh his 5'11" frame with the pro game. I loved his appearance on Gruden's QB camp, and I thought "wow, he'd make a really good backup and push for a starting job". I'm glad I was wrong. Wilson is amazing in every aspect. I believe intangibles are more important than physical measurables for a QB (although that's changing with the mobility factor), but I didn't trust myself on this one.

Browner was what I expected this year. He doesnt' change direction well, but he erases a WR's change of speed/direction ability when he gets his hands on them at the LOS. I don't see him as a really good zone CB, as evidenced in that Chicago game (like you said, man would've been better...Cutler is mobile but won't murder you). Do we see him going away as we go more zone centric ?

I liked Scruggs this year too. Guys I see an improvement on this next year: Scruggs, Irvin, Wagner, Lane, and Maxwell. I think Tate hasn't reached his ceiling yet. Miller won't improve; he's probably at the top of his game, but as we release him into routes more, you'll see his production improve (like the end of last year). McCoy probably hasn't hit his ceiling yet either, as well as Turbin.

It's scary, but I think Wilson will get better. He was a top 5 QB last year, and I think he can actually improve, which should scare the hell out of the rest of the division. With Kaepernick's developement, we're going to have some epic battles with the Niners, and with the rivalry our coaches already had, it's going to be one bitter and epic rilvalry; probably the most contentious in the NFL.

It's amazing to see all this young talent and realize they can improve. It's scary to think what our FO can do with the draft after looking at the last two. I have the highest expectations for this team of any Seahawks team I've ever watched.

Great read, Kearly! I share the enthusiasm for Golden. I remember thinking when he was drafted that he could develop into our Steve Smith; maybe not so much in the #1 wideout sense, but as far as pound-for-pound scrappiness, nimbleness, and being a dangerously competitive receiver. Like you, I think he hit his stride in 2012 and can take it to another level with more Russell time.

bellingerga":2rji4177 said:

Also I've been trying to put my finger on something in regards to wilson. There's just been this aspect that I couldn't quite put into words but you said it, absolutely perfectly.

" But with this guy, things are different. It kind of feels like the world is shifting to surround him-"

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That struck me too. It reminded me of Andy Warhol's contention that the key to success is in defining the center of the universe as wherever you are and allowing people to gravitate to what you are doing. Russell is the center of the universe. We're all just in orbit.

(I can't remember when or where I read that Warhol bit, so if I just came up with it in a dream or mis-attributed the idea... oh well. So what.)