Anyone else see this coming?

Here's my factors for the coming Fall Of China:

-Immense, centralized power. If you don't give any power to the people the people will revolt.
-Controlled, centralized media. An important aspect to a country that can bend/not break is a free press. At least it gives the people an outlet and a means for discussion. Like the US, even if things get bad, we still feel like we have a voice and a semblance of control (real or not). Beat down the Chinese people enough, they will have no outlet but agression.
-Increasing standard of living. This is the kicker. The everyday Chinese people are starting to sniff a better standard of modern living, work hard, come home, consume. Move up, make more money, buy more things. Unfortunately, the biggest driver of their economy is low wage jobs and an unregulated business climate. As the general SoL increases, it will cost more to do business. We know what happens when things cost more to produce.

China has a few options to stop the fall.

#1. Open up the government. Let the people decide their leaders and their laws. Just doing this may prevent the fall.
#2. Spend money. Improve the SoL by providing increasing services free of charge. Add minimal regulations while providing easy [cheap] ways for businesses to comply with regulation.

I don't see either of these happening. The next 30 years will be a very interesting time in China.

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RIP ROAD WOES 12/2/2012

China has recently been exhibiting the all worst characteristics of capitalism and communism, all rolled into one.

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Talent can get you to the playoffs.
It takes character to win when you get there.

The root of the problem is a government that does not represent the people or their interests.

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RIP ROAD WOES 12/2/2012

Communism has always been a system that eventually defeats itself. The only question is how it dies, and how the rest of the world handles their expansive tendencies while they're still peaking.

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Sonic, can you demonstrate that its a definite problem inside China that its government doesnt represent the people or its interests? Can you actually demonstrate that the Chinese government DOESNT represents the peoples interest? If you were an average Chinese alive in 1950..1975..and today, would you actually doubt your government had done quite a good job of representing China's interests in the world?

Would you make any allowance that due to cultural and educational differences the expectations of people might be different? Or that the Chinese government is fairly good at reading its own people and giving them certain concessions that will appease them, and continuing to educate them in a way that emphasizes (wrongly or rightly) that a Western style democracy isnt suitable for China?

Have you ever heard of revolution coming to a country that is enjoying 9 percent economic growth?

China is given, historically, to revolt..but not during prosperous times and not for vague principles like the right to vote or a free press. The Chinese people revolt when the government fails at its most basic level: when people go hungry or foreign interests predominate even inside China.

There can be no doubt at all China has serious challenges coming in the next 50 years... but predicting a Chinese "fall" is somewhat wishful thinking in my opinion.

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“If somebody thinks they're a hedgehog, presumably you just give them a mirror and a few pictures of hedgehogs and tell them to sort it out for themselves.”

While I agree with your overall premise (China's growing and here to stay a while), there are a couple factors which could weigh in heavily.

China's economic growth is directly tied to Western interests, and the growth is beginning to slow as costs rise, plus there is a growing Western resentment towards products manufactured in China. As they are heavily leveraged in US Dollars, any major economic event in the Western world will impact them in a big way, potentially more seriously than it would impact us.

There is also a growing urgency in the Western world, to develop new sources of rare earth elements as China exports more than 90% of the world's supply of neodymium, a metal used in the most powerful permanent magnets known -- magnets which are used to construct compact and powerful electrical motors such as that found in the Segway scooter, a (gag) Toyota Prius, or a Blu-Ray player. With Australia setting the stage to be the world's premier supplier of rare earth minerals, China will not be able to leverage this export for much longer, nor will they be able to use it as a bargaining chip.

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Definitely.. Im not saying the situation isnt fluid or complex. All Im saying is China isnt going away, isnt going to "fall". Its the worlds second largest economy, plays by a different set of rules, and is playing the game better than they have in the past. Dont get me wrong, Im the exact opposite of a fan.. but the reality is we are going to learn to accept them not hope they are going to trip on their own success and revert to a third rate power again. Its better to look at 1800 to 1990 as an aberation, not the norm for China. They are a long term historical power.

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“If somebody thinks they're a hedgehog, presumably you just give them a mirror and a few pictures of hedgehogs and tell them to sort it out for themselves.”

I can see China fall when a world war breaks out in the Middle East, but as far economically, they should be the top dog in a couple years.

The real concern I have with China is...................... I thought America was against Communism!?!?!

We are, as we are also against fascism, or any form of extremist government.

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Hugh Millen = CBJ minus the cool beard

China's GDP is growing at a rapid rate and will eventually beat ours. But GDP per capita, they will be far off for quiet some time.
Chinas economy will stop growing here in a bit once they begin experiencing the effects of the one child policy.

Not when we are making money because of that government.

China is essentially Fascist, not communist. And the US has long made cozy with Fascist regimes when convenient.

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“If somebody thinks they're a hedgehog, presumably you just give them a mirror and a few pictures of hedgehogs and tell them to sort it out for themselves.”

Um..sorry..again..no. People are in such a hurry to dismiss China. 1.3 billion people. many natural resources, a unified government and population, free enterprise. Going against it: tyrannical government and regulated information, perhaps a tendency to cut corners..

China has major challenges ahead but to just dismiss it out of hand is a mistake. Their growth isnt simply going to stop and the 1 Child Policy adds to their troubles in a sense, but its already mitigated. It seems many in the US dont know but in China if both a husband and a wife are "only childs" then they can have 2 children. Also, you can have 2 children anyway but the second child simply doesnt get free education, etc.. but many families can afford a second child. The country isnt a bunch of robots, they arent going to blindly drive off the 1 Child Cliff.. Rather, they adjust.

Im not a China fanboy at all.. there are few countries that frustrate me more..but I genuinely get worried at how it gets treated..as if its present economic success is the anomaly instead of its general condition minus some stagnation now and then.

We will need to learn to deal with China in a mature, nuanced way.

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“If somebody thinks they're a hedgehog, presumably you just give them a mirror and a few pictures of hedgehogs and tell them to sort it out for themselves.”

China has incredible power to avoid any kind of catastrophic fall. They have the resources in money and natural resources to continue to grow and prosper.

My only point was transition periods are difficult. Extremely difficult.

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RIP ROAD WOES 12/2/2012