The real reason Matt Flynn's trade value will probably suck

JesterHawk

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kearly":3bxz2b0g said:
The NFL is a copycat league, and if there is one thing that defined the 2012 season, it was the emergence of the mobile QB and the validation of the read option in the NFL. While I think most NFL GMs are probably smart enough to know that QBs like Russell Wilson are very rare, QBs like Colin Kaepernick are not. Finding QBs with tools but not skills isn't hard to do, and SF is proving that such a player can lead a potent NFL offense, even without top shelf WRs.

I see a lot of owners/GMs watching that at home and thinking "why the hell aren't we doing that?" I expect a pretty huge shift in that direction starting immediately this offseason, and though EJ Manuel might have mid round draft grades, will it shock anyone when a team trades up in round 2 to reach for him extra hard? It won't surprise me. This whole situation pretty much sucks the wind out of Matt Flynn's sails. There might be some teams that like Flynn as a backup, which explains the "wait til he's released" logic. Flynn has his fans, just none big enough to pay him starter money or hand him a starting job.

Joe Webb.

I win!
 
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kearly

kearly

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Mtjhoyas":3ardqoff said:
Not to speak for Kearly, but my honest opinion of Kaepernick vs RW is that one has ungodly tools and a HC who knows how to take full advantage of those tools without making him experience the true rigors of playing QB (ie consistent reads/progressions). RW, on the otherhand IMO, along with great tools, is more adept at making reads/progressions.

I will probably get flamed for this, but Harbaugh has made life so ridiculously easy for his QBs, dating back to his San Diego days with Josh Johnson. Think about it, name one Harbaugh QB that hasn't been really efficient? Why is this?

As much as I hate the man, he is brilliant with play design/call. There's a reason he has significant designed movement pre-snap. It basically makes the defense show their entire hand of what they are doing. A simple check optimizes the play call. Furthermore, I have paid very close attention to Kaepernick, and during the ATL game, I can honestly say I never saw him move off of a first read the entire game. Even slow developing plays (like the big V Davis catch), he was simply eyeing him the whole way, and the play design made the crossing routes rub together, allowing Davis unnatural separation on the play.

I really don't want to discredit Kaepernick as he is a fantastic physical talent (and by all means a smart kid), but I've noticed more often than not, if the first read breaks down, he's a totally different player. And like I said earlier, name a Harbaugh QB who has struggled with efficiency?

Good post. Said it better than I could have.

JesterHawk":3ardqoff said:
Joe Webb.

Joe Webb sucks. Probably doesn't help him that he plays on a team that thinks Christian Ponder was worth the 12th overall pick, or driving the MVP of their passing offense out of town.
 
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kearly

kearly

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MontanaHawk05":13b906xt said:
The reason? RG3.

RG3 was a walking injury before he ever played a down in the NFL. That's why I viewed him as only a top 10 pick instead of the once in a generation type that everyone wanted to make him out to be last year.

Kaepernick and Wilson both have a long history of being durable. Cam Newton is durable. EJ Manuel is durable. Even RG3 could up his shelf life if he learns how to protect his body.

I don't think this is a fad. It's not the wildcat, it's not a wrinkle in a playbook. It will become the new normal NFL offense until an even better offense takes it's place down the road. The whole point of the point guard style is that it forces defenses to defend more threats. Plus, it's really hard to defend a QB who is good at running and passing. This has been true for decades. Nothing gimmicky about that.

Even before the read option wave hit the NFL, evaluators were over-rating QB mobility going back forever (it was the main reason Tom Brady reached the 6th round, and a big reason why nearly half the GMs in the NFL preferred Sanchez over Stafford). Teams have always coveted mobile QBs, but finding good ones who could also throw is hard to do. But with this new system, it makes the life of a QB so easy that it's a lot easier to find those mobile QBs who can also be effective passers. Colin Kaepernick just gashed the crap out of the Falcons without running almost at all. It was because that whole time the Falcons had to waste a defender just to spy Kaepernick as a runner.
 

CaptainSkybeard

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The real reason we don't like Kaepernick?

He looks (and carries himself) like a gang banger!!! Sorry it's true.

Wilson looks like a "fine young man" and carries himself like a robot. I'll take that any day.

I might catch heat for that, but that stuff really makes a difference, not because it actually does, but because that's a reflection of character - and character does make a big difference.
 

BlueTalon

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mretrade":2gjivqyj said:
Flynn has some trade value but its capped because his contract is too expensive to be a backup and he is still an unknown commodity as a starter. I think teams are now more willing to go to young quarterbacks due to the success of Wilson, Kaepernick, Tannehill, RG3, & Luck. Not only that but the rookie wage scale makes it much more cost effective.

Oh and since when does 6 feet 4 230 pound quarterbacks who can also run a 4.5 with a strong arm grow on trees?
Good point about the rookie wage scale, but your last sentence belies your main point. Teams may be more willing to go with a rookie QB if they think they have a rookie QB that can handle the job or if they are desperate. But as you noted, they don't grow on trees -- and this upcoming draft seems to have rather poor offerings for any team hoping for a rookie starter.

Supply and demand. Or one team's stupidity. That's all it takes for Flynn to be a valuable commodity this offseason.
 

volsunghawk

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CaptainSkybeard":5hg2nc4t said:
The real reason we don't like Kaepernick?

He looks (and carries himself) like a gang banger!!! Sorry it's true.

Wilson looks like a "fine young man" and carries himself like a robot. I'll take that any day.

I might catch heat for that, but that stuff really makes a difference, not because it actually does, but because that's a reflection of character - and character does make a big difference.

The real reason I don't like Kaepernick is because he wears red and gold and has a big SF on his helmet. I don't care about the tats.

That said, I find it kind of funny that he'll run for a 50-yard TD and then mock kissing his ARM. Dude, it was your legs that got you there.
 
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volsunghawk":261ogcbd said:
That said, I find it kind of funny that he'll run for a 50-yard TD and then mock kissing his ARM. Dude, it was your legs that got you there.

He's kissing his tattoos praising the biblical verses on them. He started doing it after the sports writer bashed him for being a "gang banger" and having tattoos.
 

LawlessHawk

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QuickLightning":23o2cak2 said:
He's kissing his tattoos praising the biblical verses on them. He started doing it after the sports writer bashed him for being a "gang banger" and having tattoos.

...or maybe because he's just really in to himself... which, from what I've seen of him, interviews, photos, etc... seems more likely.
 

Zowert

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I think the influx in mobile quarterbacks comes down to the physical talent we're seeing come into the NFL. Back in the day, a quarterback didn't train the way QB's of today train. They didn't do wind sprints, agility drills and practice throwing on the run as much as they did standing in the pocket.

Once a few mobile quarterbacks came along and showed they could be just as successful as the traditional, stand-in-the-pocket and throw QB's. They had become pioneers for the athletically gifted and extremely mobile QB's of today. Guys like Steve Young are to thank for it. Especially since Young came in and played for a team that enjoyed major success from one of the greatest pocket passing quarterbacks of all-time; Joe Montana, and he was able to play a completely different style while keeping the 49ers on the map. Considering the size of shoes Young had to fill, he was the first amazingly successful mobile quarterback (I know there were some mobile guys before him, but none that were like Steve Young. None that I can think of at least.)

Now we have more and more teams who have used the traditional style of QB, that are willing to draft a kid that not only has a big arm and all the intangibles, but a set of wheels too. Quarterbacks are no longer on the same athletic level as a place kicker. You have big, strong QB's like Kaep and Tebow (although he's not been as successful at QB, he is an example of the physicality we're seeing in quarterbacks). If Tim Tebow could throw as well as some of the NFL quarterbacks his age, he would be pretty damn scary. Considering he is as big and strong as a lot of the linebackers in the NFL. Hell, even Russell Wilson is not only strong for his size, but he's tough too. You'll most likely never see a 5'11" 205 pound QB running ahead of his RB to throw blocks, especially as often as we've seen Wilson do it this last season. Come to think of it, you don't even see a lot of receivers Wilson's size [and even bigger] throw relatively hard blocks.

This is not a 'hard' block, but it shows you the speed and acceleration that RW can exhibit. I've seen him throw blocks that knocked DB's (bigger than him) on their ass. Most in the NCAA but I remember seeing one in the NFL. If someone can find a clip of it, that would be awesome. I think he was blocking for Golden Tate on a swing route, when he knocked a DB over. But i'm not positive.

[youtube]wERblvp133w[/youtube]

It looked like Russ tried to line the guy up and destroy him on the block, but at the last second the defender has his back toward him. So he pulled up, to avoid an illegal block in the back. Smart and quick decision. This is not an excuse to put a RW video up, just an example of the athleticism of today's quarterbacks. I could have put some highlights of Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick or any of the young mobile guys. Then found some videos of older style quarterbacks, from Otto Graham and Johnny Unitas to Montana, Marino and Elway.

Anyway.. I rambled on again.

The fact that Flynn is more of a pocket QB than a mobile one, will not be the reason for his lower than expected/hoped value. The reason is simple: Matt Flynn is 28 years old with two career starts. He doesn't have a big arm [average strength at best] and pretty much every GM and Coach in the NFL damn near requires a QB that can throw bullets. Plus, Flynn's price tag doesn't help his trade value either.
 

HawkAroundTheClock

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Winterfell":1wqwxc3f said:
Mtjhoyas":1wqwxc3f said:
Not to speak for Kearly, but my honest opinion of Kaepernick vs RW is that one has ungodly tools and a HC who knows how to take full advantage of those tools without making him experience the true rigors of playing QB (ie consistent reads/progressions). RW, on the otherhand IMO, along with great tools, is more adept at making reads/progressions.

I will probably get flamed for this, but Harbaugh has made life so ridiculously easy for his QBs, dating back to his San Diego days with Josh Johnson. Think about it, name one Harbaugh QB that hasn't been really efficient? Why is this?

As much as I hate the man, he is brilliant with play design/call. There's a reason he has significant designed movement pre-snap. It basically makes the defense show their entire hand of what they are doing. A simple check optimizes the play call. Furthermore, I have paid very close attention to Kaepernick, and during the ATL game, I can honestly say I never saw him move off of a first read the entire game. Even slow developing plays (like the big V Davis catch), he was simply eyeing him the whole way, and the play design made the crossing routes rub together, allowing Davis unnatural separation on the play.

I really don't want to discredit Kaepernick as he is a fantastic physical talent (and by all means a smart kid), but I've noticed more often than not, if the first read breaks down, he's a totally different player. And like I said earlier, name a Harbaugh QB who has struggled with efficiency?

I think all that makes a lot of sense. That CK's job is made easier with Harbaugh, and his strengths are emphasized and his weaknesses softened.

It's just that saying RW is a rare QB while saying that CK is not rare implies that a QB like CK is easy to find and that RW is heads and shoulders better CK. Which even though I believe RW is going to have the better career, I can't agree that at the moment there is that much of a performance difference between RW and CK. They both are supported by a great defense and physical running back. Both led their teams to wins and the playoffs.

I would say that at the moment, RW and CK are a very similar kind of QB.

I'd say RW has the edge in work ethic, composure, football IQ, reading coverages, agility/elusiveness, passing accuracy, pocket awareness.

But to be fair I would say that CK has a slight edge in arm strength, running speed, and size. Not that RW is a pushover at any of those, but to be fair, that's just what I see.

Good points on both sides of the conversation. I'll add that one more difference in regards to drafting a "Wilson" vs a "Kaepernick" is readiness. The media make a big deal about the daring decision to switch QBs in mid-season, but Harbaugh and the 9er staff had a season and a half to figure out what to do with CK. Then when forced by injury to Alex Smith, they put the CK experiment into play and stuck with it. Props to them for that, and for taking a guy that could easily have been an ongoing project for many other teams/coaches. It's further testament to Harbaugh's success with QBs that CK hit the ground running (Ha!) and never looked back. (Although he did look very confused at the Clink.)

But juxtapose that with Wilson, who came in and with his approach, leadership, and play, forced Pete and Co. to realize right away that this kid was ready to lead the team. From a GM perspective, a ready-to-go Wilson or RG3 is much more rare than a fast, physically gifted athlete who played QB against relatively week college competition, I'm guessing. To go with the athletic, but unpolished passer, a GM would have to have great confidence and patience in the QB coach and OC to develop the passing skills and reading NFL defenses side of the young talent's game. That, and a QB in place already.
 

Sarlacc83

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bestfightstory":38nibx82 said:
Is there a reason this gem wasn't added to the thread entitled 'Matt Flynn expected to be cut'?



Of course there is!!!!!!


It's a kearly thought!!!!!

Don't open up his threads if you don't want to hear what he has to say.
 

Seahawk Sailor

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Mtjhoyas":hyprw6v5 said:
Not to speak for Kearly, but my honest opinion of Kaepernick vs RW is that one has ungodly tools and a HC who knows how to take full advantage of those tools without making him experience the true rigors of playing QB (ie consistent reads/progressions).

I dunno. We took full advantage of those tools the last time we played 'em.
 

Sgt. Largent

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I agree with the OP somewhat, but Flynn still has value.

Remember he was the #2 free agent QB last year behind Manning. Add in the fact that this is a down year for the QB draft class (as opposed to last year's incredible draft class)...........so I think there will be quite a bit of interest for Flynn.

More should shake out on Flynn after the draft, when teams get desperate if they didn't get their guy.
 

Killa Kam

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CaptainSkybeard":2vq0mrvc said:
The real reason we don't like Kaepernick?

He looks (and carries himself) like a gang banger!!! Sorry it's true.

Wilson looks like a "fine young man" and carries himself like a robot. I'll take that any day.

I might catch heat for that, but that stuff really makes a difference, not because it actually does, but because that's a reflection of character - and character does make a big difference.

This is probably one of the stupidest and most ignorant posts I've ever seen on this site. What has Kaepernick done to look and act like a gangbanger? Has he gotten arrested, thrown up gang signs?
 

hawksfansinceday1

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I am still standing by my prediction that Reid trades for Flynn and starts him next season in KC. He fits Andy's preferred west coast style system nearly to a "T" and since they are obviously rebuilding he can sell the fanbase on 'exploring all our options' and 'best chance to win now while we devlop Joe Blow for the future' and all that (Joe Blow will be their 2nd or 3rd round draft choice based on Reid's QB draft pattern). It's win/win for Reid cuz he'll get a QB that can run his offense and if he is better than a career backup then Andy re-signs him and if he's not it gives him time to find the right guy while not having to play a guy like Brady Quinn.

Now what Seattle gets for Flynn, that's the $64,000 question. I'm predicting their 5th which I believe is the first pick in that round. I think KC leads off rounds 1,3,5,7. And this scenario assumes they still own their 5th rounder btw.
 

GoHawks1212

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QuickLightning":kvszyew1 said:
Doesn't Wilson consistently overthrow his receivers, dating back to his college days? I see those comments in these forums all the time.

No he doesn't, and no you don't.

QuickLightning":kvszyew1 said:
Kaepernick has also fit a lot of passes in extremely tight windows.

Not sure I would say a LOT of passes... he's still got a relatively small sample size. And let's be honest, he's got a bullet for an arm, but his touch throws need some work.

QuickLightning":kvszyew1 said:
There is a reason they both made it to the post season. Both are extremely talented QBs with the potential for bright futures ahead of them.

So Colin Kaepernick not playing, was the reason the 49ers didn't make the playoffs last year! Got it! Err....

QuickLightning":kvszyew1 said:
Also, on the subject of "Wilson is a passer that can run while Kaepernick, Newton and RG3 are run first QBs like Vick", which team had the lowest pass attempts in the NFL?

You really shouldn't use passing attempts if you want to test that statement. You gotta use the eye test. How many designed runs? How often do the QB's run out of an "option" formation? What's all of these QB's most common reaction to pressure? Do they tuck the ball and run? Or do they scramble to try and find an open receiver downfield? The only QB of those 4 who more times than not, scrambles in order to THROW the ball, is Russell Wilson. Not to say the other QB's couldn't develop that trait, it's just that their natural reaction is to tuck the ball and run. Not sure how this is still in question, it's basically been beaten to a pulp on TV broadcasts all year. Again, just use your eyes.
 

Sgt. Largent

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hawksfansinceday1":3i332eqk said:
Now what Seattle gets for Flynn, that's the $64,000 question. I'm predicting their 5th which I believe is the first pick in that round. I think KC leads off rounds 1,3,5,7. And this scenario assumes they still own their 5th rounder btw.

I don't think John and Pete would trade Flynn for only a 5th. I think KC would have to offer something AT LEAST in the 3rd round ballpark.

Look at the free agent QB's this off season;

http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features ... nts/fa.php

It's slim pickin' city. IMO Flynn and Alex Smith are #1 and #2 for QB trades..............and Flynn's contract is much more manageable than Smith, who's set to make 8 million next year, AND get a 1.5 million roster bonus.
 

hawksfansinceday1

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Sgt. Largent":nx9j7mq8 said:
hawksfansinceday1":nx9j7mq8 said:
Now what Seattle gets for Flynn, that's the $64,000 question. I'm predicting their 5th which I believe is the first pick in that round. I think KC leads off rounds 1,3,5,7. And this scenario assumes they still own their 5th rounder btw.

I don't think John and Pete would trade Flynn for only a 5th. I think KC would have to offer something AT LEAST in the 3rd round ballpark.

Look at the free agent QB's this off season;

http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features ... nts/fa.php

It's slim pickin' city. IMO Flynn and Alex Smith are #1 and #2 for QB trades..............and Flynn's contract is much more manageable than Smith, who's set to make 8 million next year, AND get a 1.5 million roster bonus.
Not a chance in hell KC trades the first pick in round 3 for Flynn and I don't see the second pick in round 4 either. Another team may trade a mid to late 4th rounder for him but if he does go to KC as I think, either it's their 5th or they trade up somewhere in the 4th and then trade that pick to Seattle. However, you may be right in that John and Pete just don't trade him if the offer is in that (lower) range. Do keep in mind though that even if all they get is something like KC's 5th, it really frees up some cap space (as has been documented on these boards by several folks) and that alone may be motivation enough to move him for what some people will perceive as below market value.
 

hawker84

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It's not like the mobile QB was just introduced to the NFL in the last few years.. i think Randall Cunningham was pretty darn mobile as was Cordell stewart, just to name a couple...Mobile QB's have been around for years... i think Flynn will go (if traded) to a team that fits his style of play.. i don't think every team is going to try and adapt to the read option/ pistol type offense.. as stated on hear before 3 of the 4 QB's in the championship games were pocket QB's.. While Vick and Newton certainly brought new dynamics to the league, pure pocket QB's have continued to have far more success.. you may see an increase in mobile QB's over the next few years, but the Pocket QB will always be a part of the NFL.. therefore i do not feel flynn will loose much value if any because of the serge of mobile QB's lately.
 

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