Flynn to Jax?

Hawkscanner

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Jared Stanger over at Field Gulls also has a good article up on the idea of trading Flynn. He brings up some excellent points -- namely ...

1) Trading Flynn would create between $8-13 Million in value that could be used elsewhere in adding needed Free Agents.

2) Flynn's contract is actually a fairly reasonable one -- especially if you're talking about a starting QB.

3) Overall, this is a very weak draft class for quarterbacks -- there many be no better time to cash in on and maximize Flynn's value to another team than now.

4) Though we've heard commentators like John Clayton talk many times about how Flynn would fetch nothing more than a 7th Round pick ... history says that teams tend to overpay for quarterbacks. Just a few names from recent history ...

(2006) Baltimore traded a 4th Round Pick to the Titans for Steve McNair (who was 33 at the time)

(2008) Kansas City traded a high 2nd Round Pick (#34) to the Patriots to get Matt Cassell and LB Matt Vrabel.

(2010) we traded a 3rd Round Pick to San Diego for Charlie Whitehurst

(2011) Oakland traded a 1st AND 2nd Round Pick to the Bengals for Carson Palmer (who was also 33 at the time)

Whether we're talking about deals for guys like these ... or draft choices like Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, Christian Ponder, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and tons of others throughout the years ... teams have a propensity for overpaying for quarterbacks.

Therefore, I have to agree with the overall sentiment that some team out there will be willing to overpay for Flynn as well. Personally, I'm thinking that a 3rd Round Choice for Flynn sounds about right.
 

Hawkstorian

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Why do we think anyone would trade for him when nobody else even wanted to sign him last year? We think losing his starting job and sitting on the bench all year somehow makes him more valuable? I don't get it.
 

Rainger

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SacHawk2.0":2z565nxq said:
Gus knows what he can do, and he's pretty clearly ahead of anyone else in Jax. Draft crop for QBs isn't stellar and we're in a win now league?

Do you thing Gus will make a trade for Flynn?
I think he will relie on his OC team to advise him. Flynn may not be what the want to do with their offense. Gus is a D guy. Like Carroll he will be going on O input to help him.

Also he does not have the situation like Pete does with his GM. If the GM doesnt want Flynn it wont matter what Gus wants.
 

pehawk

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Any chance the hiring of Bradley will AT LEAST prevent the Jags road games from being blacked out? No way it *affects* their home games.
 

CANHawk

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HawkFan72":1y171yls said:
CANHawk":1y171yls said:
CodeWarrior":1y171yls said:
Of course Gus would have to go to a franchise entirely bereft of pass rushing talent. That's right, Jax finished DEAD LAST in the NFL in sacks during the regular season at a pathetic 20. Alualu was their sack leader, recording a whopping 3.5 sacks...

Still, I'll take that from a DT.

I don't profess to watch a ton of Jags games (just like most people in Jacksonville <rimshot>) but Alualu looks like he brings a TON of pressure up the middle. We need that (desperately) and at 295 he's big enough to play 3 downs and stuff the run.

I'd be thrilled to hear we worked out some kind of trade involving Flynn for Alualu.

I'm pretty sure that Gus, being a defensive guy, wouldn't go for it. He knows who the best players on the D are there and he's not going to trade one of them away.

Maybe so, but Gus isn't calling the shots. He didn't get "Pete Carroll level" control down there. JAX is having a huge attendance problem down there and what's one of the easiest ways to instil false hope in the fanbase and get some tickets sold? Wheel in a saviour QB. Flynn has all those highlights from those two games in GB they could show on TV to try and sell some tickets.

This is the same franchise with the owner who says he'd love to have Tebow and the GM that says he has no intention of trading for him. That has future discunction written ALL OVER it. I wonder what the behind the scenes conversations sound like down there? Trading for a totally different quarterback might be a way for the GM to get the owner off his back on the Tebow front.

I'm not saying it's a slam dunk, but never say never...
 

volsunghawk

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entropyrulesall":z63pe6tw said:
Hawkfan77":z63pe6tw said:
SeahawksFanForever":z63pe6tw said:
Matt Flynn to Jax and I would like us to draft Matt Barkley with the 25th overall pick of this draft.
Did you forget the :sarcasm_off: at the end of your statement?


No he must have been reading Hawk Blogger. It's an interesting idea but not for our Superbowl caliber team. http://www.hawkblogger.com/2013/01/early-thoughts-on-trading-matt-flynn.html?m=1

I think Hawkblogger is VASTLY overrating and overvaluing Flynn.

And I don't like the idea of drafting and developing Barkley just to try and trade him away for a "higher pick." Considering that we'd probably have to spend our 1st rounder on him, that makes it difficult to fetch a more valuable package for him down the road. I can get behind drafting a QB for development in the middle rounds, but not in the 1st, no matter how big Carroll's "mancrush" on Barkley is.
 

entropyrulesall

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Hawkstorian":1ns3kpi0 said:
Why do we think anyone would trade for him when nobody else even wanted to sign him last year? We think losing his starting job and sitting on the bench all year somehow makes him more valuable? I don't get it.

Because few teams needed him the year that an elite QB class was available in the draft. Flynn is one of the few candidates available whose stock has remained the same this year, at the very worst, or even slightly improved since he handled the year and frustration of not starting with class.
 

Hawkscanner

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Hawkstorian":1v7hxnfc said:
Why do we think anyone would trade for him when nobody else even wanted to sign him last year? We think losing his starting job and sitting on the bench all year somehow makes him more valuable? I don't get it.

It's basic Supply and Demand here. Let's take a brief whizz around the NFL and just list off how many teams are really in the need for a quarterback ...

Kansas City
Jacksonville
Philadelphia (it's highly unlikely that Vick is back in 2013. Foles might be the guy, but maybe not)
Arizona
NY Jets
Minnesota (I'm not sold on Ponder at all and Webb as a backup -- oof!)

Those are just 6 that I listed off the top of my head who could legitimately be looking for help for starting QB help. Now, the issue here (which could really favor Seattle) is that Supply-wise, there's really aren't a ton of guys out there who you could look at as potential starters.

In terms of the draft, you're basically talking about Geno Smith and Matt Barkley (whom I would sit ideally, but he could handle starting IMO.) Looking up and down the draft board, I'm really not seeing anyone else who could really step in right away (I don't know that I see a Russell Wilson in this class).

On the Free Agent side of things, I'm going to first of all assume that Joe Flacco isn't going anywhere. So, take him off the list. That leaves the following guys out there in the market:

Jason Campbell
Tavaris Jackson
Matt Moore
Drew Stanton
Seneca Wallace

If I'm one of those teams, I'm looking at the available list of Free Agents ... and looking at what's available through the draft and I'm asking myself, "Would a 3rd or 4th Round Choice make sense for a Matt Flynn?" Given what's available out there and the fact that his contract isn't overwhelming by any means, my answer probably would be -- Yes. Therefore, I'd be looking for some team to seriously come kicking the tires on him this offseason.
 

pehawk

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To pile on scanner's post, KC makes immediate sense. I could throw for 2,500 and 18 TD's under Reid, pretty sure Flynn would thrive there. That's a talented team, in a poor division, with a great running game. Add Flynn, and you're at 8 wins, MINIMUM.
 

volsunghawk

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pehawk":2nv52b4i said:
To pile on scanner's post, KC makes immediate sense. I could throw for 2,500 and 18 TD's under Reid, pretty sure Flynn would thrive there. That's a talented team, in a poor division, with a great running game. Add Flynn, and you're at 8 wins, MINIMUM.

That was my thinking earlier, and if you're talking compensation in whatever round, KC's going to trump everyone else each time (though Jax would be close).

I wonder, though, how reticent the Jags would be about spending a mid-round pick (3rd or so) on Flynn only 2 years after spending a top 10 pick on Gabbert?
 

pehawk

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If I was the Jags, I wouldn't. I'm in the minority here, but Henne has a stronger arm and is equal to, or better than Flynn, anyways. What's the point? Caldwell aint doing it.

I'm having all sorts of fantasies about the Chiefs (only one involves Reid's stache). If the Hawks REALLY want Richardson, a swap of 1st, Flynn and a 2nd maybe enough.

KC doesn't need to get younger, they're already ALL under 30 with talent galore.
 

ivotuk

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I can't believe how people tend to devalue Flynn.
1. There is a high demand for QB this year with very little help in the draft.
2. Flynn is a known quantity
3. Swapping places in the 1st or 2nd round is a plausible trade value
4. At minimum, Matt Flynn, a starting caliber QB is worth a 3rd rounder, especially with his reasonable contract.
5. There are teams whose window does not allow for them to bring a QB up to speed and none of the QBs except for Barkley are ready to come in and start right away.
6. As mentioned above, history shows that teams are willing to give up good draft picks for QBs. Hell, they will give up 4th and 5th rounders for Tim Tebow and Josh Wilson!
7. Teams that could use a new QB
Buffalo
Jets
Browns
Jaguars
KC
Raiders
Eagles
Cardinals

8. Teams that need a good backup QB
Miami
Titans
Dallas
Bears!
Vikings
Panthers
Tampa Bay (Freeman could use a good benching)

Personally, I think Flynn is worth someone moving back in the 1st round in order to get him. Or a mid-late 2nd round pick straight up. And if Clayton thinks he is only worth a 7th, then he's losing it.
 

hawksfansinceday1

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pehawk":2476cc5c said:
To pile on scanner's post, KC makes immediate sense. I could throw for 2,500 and 18 TD's under Reid, pretty sure Flynn would thrive there. That's a talented team, in a poor division, with a great running game. Add Flynn, and you're at 8 wins, MINIMUM.
Yeah if he goes anywhere I believe it'll be KC. He's an excellent fit for Reid's nearly pure west coast offense. I'll say now if it comes down, we get their 4th for him which of course is the 2nd pick in that round so almost a late 3rd.

As for Jacksonville, the owner will install Tebow as the starter to sell tix IMO. It'll fail miserably because Tebow is not an NFL QB and Gus will be starting all over again next year. For Bradley's sake I do hope I'm wrong.
 

drdiags

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I think Reid would want to draft and nurture his own QB. After the Casell signing and eventual failure, the new GM and HC would need to be sensitive to the fanbase and ownership's previous experience. If it is something Reid wants, I am sure he won't get much grief but I think he would rather develop his own. Then again he was involved in the Vick signing, so what do I know?

I am not sure Jags GM Caldwell would want to make signing Flynn his first player related move. Henne was going to be in the mix if Mularkey remained, wonder what the owner's feel is on bringing in a 3rd QB. Tough deal with Gabbert having issues getting established with the club.
 

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Also, let's not forget about Alex Smith possibly jacking up the market for Flynn.
 

pehawk

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Hawkstorian":3g1z1wrt said:
Why do we think anyone would trade for him when nobody else even wanted to sign him last year? We think losing his starting job and sitting on the bench all year somehow makes him more valuable? I don't get it.

Damn it Hawkstorian, you're smarter than that. The QB market last year was the oddest EVER. Manning and the class of '83 revisited, w/ the #2 pick on the block. Every team thought they could get a franchise 1st rounder, under the rookie CBA rules, Flynn didn't stand a chance.
 

hawksfansinceday1

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drdiags":3d7xk6v4 said:
I think Reid would want to draft and nurture his own QB. After the Casell signing and eventual failure, the new GM and HC would need to be sensitive to the fanbase and ownership's previous experience. If it is something Reid wants, I am sure he won't get much grief but I think he would rather develop his own. Then again he was involved in the Vick signing, so what do I know?

I am not sure Jags GM Caldwell would want to make signing Flynn his first player related move. Henne was going to be in the mix if Mularkey remained, wonder what the owner's feel is on bringing in a 3rd QB. Tough deal with Gabbert having issues getting established with the club.
You know plenty and your point about Reid is a good one. Still I can see Flynn as a bridge type so Reid can nurture his own guy along since Matt is a good fit for Andy's offense. Plus he actually could develop into something more than stopgap in that system IMO so it's win/win. As for the fans, you sell them on him as the 'right fit here but not in Seattle' and 'we plan on drafting a young guy and bringing him along' and so on and so forth. Maybe not and maybe I'm just wishful thinking but because he's such a good fit in that type of offense it makes a great deal of sense and damn it, I'm stubbornly clinging to this until it does or doesn't happen. :D
 

drdiags

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I like the idea HFSD1 of the Reid selling point for Matt as a bridge until he can get his program established. Sort of like Pederson (I think) before McNabb was ready to take over (if my memory is correct of the early Eagles transition to McNabb).
 

pehawk

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Reid AINT going to draft a high pick QB. Why would he? This is a dude thats made; Vick, Foles, Garcia, Kolb and even KAFKA good QB's. It'd be like investing a high draft pick at OL for Cable.
 

CANHawk

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drdiags":u5kwh9oj said:
I think Reid would want to draft and nurture his own QB. After the Casell signing and eventual failure, the new GM and HC would need to be sensitive to the fanbase and ownership's previous experience. If it is something Reid wants, I am sure he won't get much grief but I think he would rather develop his own. Then again he was involved in the Vick signing, so what do I know?

Very true, but Flynn could be an excellent bridge quarterback in KC while that Andy Reid developmental quarterback of the future erm... develops. Flynn is ready to start right now. He was ready to start last year, but divine intervention delivered Russell Wilson to us. That pure west coast system Andy uses was taylor made for a guy like Matt Flynn. Matt Flynn could be Matt Hasselbeck 2.0 in a system like that.
 
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