Need Help... I looked at it and I'm worried.

This is how I look at it. Matt Ryan has never been able to win big games. He and his team are 0 for 2 in playoff games.

Wilson has allready won more playoff games than Matt Ryan.

I'm sensing this game is going to go to OT... tied at either 23-23 or 24-24.

And it'll be a coin flip as to who will prevail in OT.

I can see it going either way.

Perhaps a slight lean in the Hawks direction based off how we have been performing in the red zone.

Do whatever the Giants did last season to hold them to 2 points. They had the same weapons.

It's all about maintaining offensive rhythm on our end and disrupting theirs. I know that sounds simplistic, but as has been mentioned, if you come out run heavy, the Falcons are not going to do as well. Physicality is going to be a big key. Wear out their defense and you can sustain 8 minute drives. Then the Atlanta offense comes in cold.

Furthermore, when you go pass happy, as the Falcons are prone to do, you're going to count on time. Ryan is going to hold onto the ball a couple of times for the long developing play with Julio Jones or Roddy White and Irvin absolutely has to take advantage, as does a Seattle blitzer. If he's pressured, maybe that long pass hangs up in the air long enough for Thomas to get underneath it.

Ultimately, if you can get the Falcons to start pressing - particularly with the stigma of the choker label - they're going to be more liable to make mistakes. Seattle has to get that thought into their heads in the first quarter.

Benn thinking lately (assuming Sherman matches up with R. White 1 on 1), what about starting Lane outside on J. Jones to match his speed - with Thomas helping - and thus making Browner the Slot CB and have him cover Gonzalez? Tony is great but cant see him being faster than Jones or White so would Browner and his tough physical style match up with Gonzalez pretty good?

Also screen passes to Jacquizz Rogers out of the backfield scare the daylights outta me.

Every week a bunch of folks say we have to get pressure this game or we're toast. Every week you say we have to blitz, it's our only chance. And every week we don't get pressure and we don't blitz until the end and we hold our opponents to under our nfl leading defensive scoring average. You'd do well to analyze why our defense is so successful without a good pass rush and why we don't blitz.

If Atlanta is so scary why did they beat a bunch of crappy teams on last second scores? If they're such a juggernaut why the dearth of blow outs?

We aren't going to get a good pass rush this week. We also aren't going to blitz, so you'd better learn to like the other stuff we do well.

Everyone thinks we're better than Atlanta because we are. That doesn't mean we'll win because chance happens. A couple more pieces of bad luck last week and we're out. But if we play this game 10 times we win 6.5 of them.

OrFan":2u1kaua5 said:

This is how I look at it. Matt Ryan has never been able to win big games. He and his team are 0 for 2 in playoff games.

Wilson has already won more playoff games than Matt Ryan.

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Hawks also didn't play an eventual SB contender/winner the first game and who cares about the past? Falcons have shown they can win in prime time this year, and that's all that matters

HansGruber":2okvf1lp said:

Heard the same thing about Green Bay and New England. That turned out okay.

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At home. Can the Hawks get that same kind of pressure on the road without Clemons? That's what worries me.

The only way to beat up tempo offenses like the Pats, Packers and Falcons is to press cover and hope your D-Line and blitzes get home before the QB can find a receiver.

IMO the #1 matchup is old man Trufant on Douglas in the slot. #2 is can Cam and the outside LB's hang with Gonzales.

Shock2k":23iwpx11 said:

SouthSoundHawk":23iwpx11 said:

HOWEVER, I've seen this Seattle Defense run with the best air attacks (NE & GB), so I'm not extremely concerned. Just excited to watch some AWESOME match ups. ATL in the playoffs is nothing to be overly worried about. This is the NFL though, so they're not to be taken lightly by all means! They don't seem to be nearly as physical as Seattle, which IMO will be their downfall. Because, lets face it...Seattle is a solid combination of Physical/Finesse.

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We barely won both those games AT HOME. Just saying.

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a "barely" win is...guess what? Still a win

Of Denver, New England, Atlanta and Green Bay, I would consider Atlanta the weakest of the group. This is a game we need to win by a couple of touchdowns. Vegas is really good at putting up odds, and it's damming to the Falcons they would only give them a point at home. But that first quarter in DC was a wake up call for me. The Hawks showed a ton of heart finishing out that meat grinder of a game.

But the national media is telling the truth, like it or not we played a handicapped RGIII. Move past the excuses and I believe we need to have a much better start. Atlanta hasn't lost a game this season while holding the lead in the first half.

I trust the coaching staff and the team. I trust Russell Wilson is going to give us a great chance to win. But I'm still looking for what's the definative skew in this game. Right now it's dead even if we can put up 24 to 30 points. And this is the weakest team we are going to face over the next three games.

Shock2k":2xpg1uky said:

Of Denver, New England, Atlanta and Green Bay, I would consider Atlanta the weakest of the group. This is a game we need to win by a couple of touchdowns. Vegas is really good at putting up odds, and it's damming to the Falcons they would only give them a point at home. But that first quarter in DC was a wake up call for me. The Hawks showed a ton of heart finishing out that meat grinder of a game.

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Don't pay attention too much to Vegas, that's not necessarily an indicator of who's going to win, it's an indicator of who the money's coming in on.

Obviously the Hawks are hot, so that's who people are betting on. Which is why the line is moving in the Hawks favor. All Vegas cares about is getting an even amount of money on each team..........then they collect their VIG.

Looked over the play by play for last years game. Now remember, this years Falcons have had turnover at key coaching positions. Koetter is the new OC and Nolan the new DC, so their philosophies may have changed a bit since last year. However, what I saw from last years game that stood out most are two things:

In the first half, they keyed on Trufant. They rotated their receivers so that Tru would be facing one guy one time, but another the next. The only times they went away from Trufant was when Jones was on Browner. Browner couldnt' contain Jones well.

In the second half, Carroll made defensive adjustments and the Hawks came storming back from a 27-7 deficit to lose on a last second missed field goal, 28-30. That was with TJack at the helm. Not sure what Carroll did, but Trufant wasn't getting burned anymore.

The key to the Falcons first half success seemed to be to isolate Jones on Browner and force ET to have to help Trufant. So they keyed on Trufant to good effect and when ET was forced to help out Tru, they would go to Jones, who would have Browner beat. To shut down Jones, they had ET help, but then Trufants man was always open. I'd love to know if anyone on here remembers what Carroll did in that second half that basically shut down Atlanta's game plan.

This game will be a huge challenge for our team, especially the defense. If we come out running a zone and get no pass rush on Ryan with the loss of Clemons, we're going to get picked apart all game. Man coverage will be our best option for this one. I'm assuming that Sherm will be one on one with whoever is on his side of the field, while Browner will probably need help from Earl over the top.

It would make sense for Chancelor to be on Gonzalaz, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them using KJ Wright to double him a bit also.

The biggest X factor the the Falcons offense would be Harry Douglas on Trufant, which would be an advantage to the Falcons. Tru has been getting beat badly at Nickelback. Harry Douglas is a very good receiver.

Also, the Falcons may try to use running back screens to Jacquiz and Turner. Our team hasn't really been tested all that much this season with running back screens it seems. If the Falcons run these against us, it would hurt our defense. Irvin's lack of experience would open up huge spaces for the running back on the screens.

The Falcons love to run wide receiver screens as well. Our corners are better at covering these, but we haven't faced a team that runs as many of these plays and executes them as efficiently as the Falcons do.

Discipline will be crucial for all eleven guys on defense. I see a lot of people on here thinking this is a lock for our team for some reason, but it's far from it. The Falcons are the #1 seed for a reason. While they haven't really faced anybody all that great this season outside their beatdown of the Broncos early in the season, they're still an excellent team that will test our team in every way possible. The 10AM kickoff doesn't help, along with the injury to Clemons. The only advantage of this game over last is the better field conditions.

There has been some really great conversation in this thread. I appreciate how "down in the weeds" .Net'rs are willing to go to look at our team.

But I have to say, I'm regretting starting this tread. I came out way to negative. I made it sound like we couldn't win. I'm going to call it temporary insanity. Our team has a GREAT chance to win here. Atlanta at the end of the day is a one trick pony. Now they are very good at that one trick, but we've played tougher and harder this season.

The 49er's are a better version of the Falcons and we played them tough at home when we were just getting started. Not to mention how many ways have the Hawks won this year? No doubt this game we are going to win in a way we have not seen. Because our coaching staff is just that good, our team is just that confidant, and our players are "schwaggerriffic".

Screw doubts, it's totally out of my control anyways. Like I said before, this team has done nothing to deserve my doubt.

GO HAWKS! Eat secondary Falcons!

The Falcons haven't played a top 5 defense at all this year. The best defense they played was arguably the Cardinals, and that was a 4 point game at Atlanta.

(Ranking by Pts/G allowed)
Redskins: #22
Raiders: #28
Eagles: #29
Cowboys: #24
Saints: #31 (1 LOSS)
Cardinals: #17
Buccs: #23 (1 LOSS)
Panthers: #18 (LOSS)
Giants: #12
Lions: #27
Seahawks: #4

(Ranking by Passing Yds/G allowed)
Redskins: #30
Raiders: #20
Eagles: #9
Cowboys: #19
Saints: #31 (1 LOSS)
Cardinals: #5
Buccs: #32 (1 LOSS)
Panthers: #13 (LOSS)
Giants: #28
Lions: #14
Seahawks #6

Lets face it, these teams match perfectly in favor of the Seahawks. If you were to pick any team to defend against Atlanta's passing attack, you would be forced to consider Seattle. I would even argue that Irvin/Scruggs might be a better combo against Atlanta's pass heavy offense than Clemons/part time Irvin. Expect at least two interceptions.

Atlanta's defense is above average, but we've seen what the Seahawks can do against some of the best defenses of the league. We finally have a dual threat QB, with too many options to defend against. Yes, Atlanta played against RG3 in Week 5 (winning by 7), but we have to keep in mind that the Redskins didn't really shine as a team until week 11. Atlanta traded games with Cam Newton, with the only win by only 2 points. The Seahawks are better than both teams in every category.

My prediction? A wild stomping of 35 - 14 Seahawks. Irvin comes up with 2 sacks. Sherman grabs an INT.

This thread has been an interesting read. In this situation, against this quarterback, the defensive ends are less important in applying pressure than the interior defensive linemen. If the Seahawks can get pressure up the middle, they can force Ryan to fade back in the pocket and not be able to step into his throws. They don't have to sack him, or even hit him, just make him uncomfortable.

I'm only worried about us in the slot. I expect to see a lot more cover 3 than cover 1 or cover 2 man.

Who do you guys think Gonzeles compares to today? Hernandez? He's no Gronk.

Shock2k":qyc79xxf said:

Of Denver, New England, Atlanta and Green Bay, I would consider Atlanta the weakest of the group. This is a game we need to win by a couple of touchdowns.

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I agree with your first sentence here.

I could not disagree more with your 2nd sentence. This is a game we need to win, whether it's by 1 point off of a last second FG or it's by 30.

As long as the Seahawks walk out of Atlanta with a win and a team as healthy as we went in there with, that's the ONLY thing that matters. Let other people worry about what messages get sent, what the pundits say, or what Vegas does. The win is the only thing.

volsunghawk":2nndgcqr said:

Shock2k":2nndgcqr said:

Of Denver, New England, Atlanta and Green Bay, I would consider Atlanta the weakest of the group. This is a game we need to win by a couple of touchdowns.

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I agree with your first sentence here.

I could not disagree more with your 2nd sentence. This is a game we need to win, whether it's by 1 point off of a last second FG or it's by 30.

As long as the Seahawks walk out of Atlanta with a win and a team as healthy as we went in there with, that's the ONLY thing that matters. Let other people worry about what messages get sent, what the pundits say, or what Vegas does. The win is the only thing.

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Agree. Though I will say that given the Falcons' ability to strike quickly with Jones, a 2 score lead would not go amiss. It's in Seattle's best interest to score early and often so they can control the tempo the rest of the game.

Sarlacc83":3d7e2dw3 said:

volsunghawk":3d7e2dw3 said:

Shock2k":3d7e2dw3 said:

Of Denver, New England, Atlanta and Green Bay, I would consider Atlanta the weakest of the group. This is a game we need to win by a couple of touchdowns.

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I agree with your first sentence here.

I could not disagree more with your 2nd sentence. This is a game we need to win, whether it's by 1 point off of a last second FG or it's by 30.

As long as the Seahawks walk out of Atlanta with a win and a team as healthy as we went in there with, that's the ONLY thing that matters. Let other people worry about what messages get sent, what the pundits say, or what Vegas does. The win is the only thing.

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Agree. Though I will say that given the Falcons' ability to strike quickly with Jones, a 2 score lead would not go amiss. It's in Seattle's best interest to score early and often so they can control the tempo the rest of the game.

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Yeah, I want to see some of those patented 85-yard, 8-minute drives from the Seahawks while they put up a 2 score lead. But in the end, I don't care how it gets done as long as our season doesn't end this weekend.