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 Post subject: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:17 pm 
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It's a bit interesting if you look at the road teams and who they're playing this week. Odds dictate that one road team should certainly be able to pull an "upset," right? Sure, home teams have a lot more on their side, but road teams do win, and the odds are better than .250. According to NFL.com, since the NFL adopted the current 12-team playoff format in 1990, home teams have a .659 winning percentage. That's a .351 winning percentage for the road team. In the last eight seasons, home teams in the wild card round have fared worse, with only a .531 winning percentage, or a .469 winning percentage for the road team. Last year, no road team won in the wild card round. Someone's due.

So, of the four road teams, which one has the best shot at winning?

Bengals at Texans - The Bengals may be a little "hotter" right now than the Texans, but are you really going to trust them going into Houston for the upset? Not me. They've shown an inability to close when they needed it most, and the Texans are probably a bit pissed they lost last week and have to play this week.

Colts at Ravens - The Colts had one of the easiest regular season schedules, but will face one of the tougher ones in the playoffs. Think they can march into Baltimore on the road, outside, and take a game away from them? I don't think they can. Experience, home field advantage, and weather conditions are all against them. And that's tough odds for even Andrew Luck, even if he doesn't throw a bunch of picks.

Vikings at Packers - The Vikings are returning to the scene of the crime of just a week ago, and the Packers are none too happy about it. Think they'll avoid a letdown now that they've snuck into the playoffs at the expense of a couple of division rivals - one they beat and the other they beat out? Hard to do, I'd say. The Packers are up for a little revenge, and Adrian Peterson can carry them only so far.

Seahawks at Redskins - We've been talking about this all week now, so I won't reiterate anything. Let's just say of all the road teams, I like the chances in this game better than any.

Joe Namath seems to think so too.

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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:22 pm 
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In order;

1. Hawks
2. Bengals
3. Vikings
4. Colts

Both the Hawks and Bengals have nasty defenses, which is step #1 to winning on the road in the playoffs. AP is the man, but I don't see how either the Vikings or Colts win this weekend. With Lewis's retirement announcement I expect the Ravens to destroy the overrated Colts once and for all. Vikings have a chance, but I don't see the Packers letting AP run for another 200 yards.

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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:22 pm 
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Seahawks will be the only road winner this week.

Colts will make an interesting 4th quarter. The Packers will shut down AP and win handily. And the Texans will take care of the Bengals. They may be slumping but i'm not convinced they can go from super bowl favorites to one-and-done, not at home.


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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:25 pm 
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Texans are one and done. Bengals look for real, Texans don't. Packers are not losing at home to the Vikings. Baltimore just isn't scary this year. But Luck will blow the game with an Int.

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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:26 pm 
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Odds imo are:

Seahawks
Colts
Bengals
Vikings


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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:27 pm 
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Winners:

Hawks 24-16
Ravens 30-17
Texans 23-14 (the slave is gonna miss a few FGs)
Packers 34-20

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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:38 pm 
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The thing is...sometimes the road team will actually have a better record then the host. The #5 and #6 seeds are sometimes in the same division as the #1 or #2 seeds, thus many times having better records than the #3 and #4 division winner teams.

This was the case in 2010 where ALL of the road teams had better records than their hosts - and 1 of 4 home teams won - Seahawks were the "1".

Each year is different...I don't have time to compile a list, but it would be interesting to see the success rate of road playoff teams with better records than their hosts.

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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 2:38 pm 
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Seahawk Sailor wrote:

Colts at Ravens - The Colts had one of the easiest regular season schedules, but will face one of the tougher ones in the playoffs. Think they can march into Baltimore on the road, outside, and take a game away from them? I don't think they can. Experience, home field advantage, and weather conditions are all against them. And that's tough odds for even Andrew Luck, even if he doesn't throw a bunch of picks.


This may well be Ray Lewis' last game in the NFL. His team mates won't let him down. :snack:

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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 2:53 pm 
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"Due" isn't a real thing.

But I think the Seahawks win and I'm also picking the Bengals.


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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:17 pm 
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We have Joe Namath's approval?!?! That should counteract Mike Greenberg's kiss of death


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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:20 pm 
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Barthawk wrote:
Winners:

Hawks 24-16
Ravens 30-17
Texans 23-14 (the slave is gonna miss a few FGs)
Packers 34-20


Dang it Barth, don't put that Packers score out into the universe man.... sheesh. (Go back and edit it to "Vikings 30-28")

We're playing for an NFCC at home baby!


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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:33 pm 
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Playoffs are a whole new bird.

Seahawks - win, Vikings (hoping for a win), Bengals - Win, Colts - BAD LOSS - I have 2 winning this week, hopefully 3. Still dreaming of a home NFCCG!

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 Post subject: Re: Odds of a road team winning this week
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:16 pm 
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My prediction is that Green Bay will be the only home team that wins the first round.

Seattle has a big matchup advantage against the Redskins and is also a far stronger team.

Cincy is the best team nobody is talking about, and they have a good QB + good pass rush... the elements needed to be a SB contender. The Texans have more overall talent, but have looked flat in December and if that continues this week they will be one and done.

The Colts, despite being 11-5, are actually among the worst teams in NFL history to make the playoffs (by DVOA). Statistically they are very comparable to the 2010 Seahawks that went 7-9. Here's the catch though: the three teams that made the playoffs and were worse than the 2012 Colts all won their first playoff game. Couple this with Baltimore going through an under-achieving season. Baltimore should win, but over-achieving teams tend to beat under-achieving ones, even when the talent gap is significant. The Colts will then proceed to being eviscerated by Tom Brady (not Manning, since Cincy won) in round two.

The Packers will obliterate the Vikings. After jumping to an early lead, Green Bay will force the Vikings to spurn Peterson rushes for Ponder throws, and I think we know how that will turn out.


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