The Only Way I See the Skins Winning is.............

Sgt. Largent · Jan 3, 2013

Seahawk Sailor":1fhki4a4 said:
The interesting thing to me is we've been crucifying and vilifying our defense all year for not getting pressure with the sacks. It's been a weakness, and one of the more hand-wringing debate topics around these parts for most of the year. We finished with several more sacks on the season than the Redskins, and yet their fans seem to shrug it off thinking they'll still get to Wilson just fine. Sometimes I wish we had that optimism.

I think there's a difference between sacks and pressure.

Yes Clemons and Irvin have had good years with sacks, but IMO there's still a problem with getting consistent pressure on the QB, especially from the interior. Bradford is a perfect example last week..........WAY too much time in the pocket.

With the Hawks it seems to be feast or famine in regards to the D-Line. I'll still put our line up against 75% of the league, but I'd still like to see more consistent pressure from the front 4.

jlwaters1 · Jan 3, 2013

kmedic":1bk7ocwa said:
Sgt. Largent":1bk7ocwa said:

If our coaching staff, Wilson and our O-Line don't effectively protect against the blitz.

Shanahan and his staff knows that he's outmatched personnel wise, so he's going to do what they did in the Dallas game, blitz the hell out of Wilson to force mistakes and long down and distances. We saw the Rams do it last game, which resulted in six first half sacks and WAY TOO MANY 2nd/3rd and longs.

This game should be a bout quick hits, rollouts, draws, screens and big passing plays down field. If if takes Sweezy and the rest of the O-Line well into the 2nd half like the Rams game to get their protection issues figured out, it could be a long day for our offense.

Click to expand...

This game won't be lost because our offense wasn't good enough. This game will be lost because our defense couldn't hold RGIII and his WR's in the 4th quarter for a game-winning FG/TD. Our defense has not yet proven to anyone that they can stop an opposing offense on the road in the 4th quarter when the game is on the line.

That's not true. They did it twice against Carolina- First in stopping Newton inside the 2 yard line and then Irvin's strip-sack of Newton to end the game.

SonicHawk · Jan 3, 2013

Seahawk Sailor":hbkudlwf said:
The interesting thing to me is we've been crucifying and vilifying our defense all year for not getting pressure with the sacks. It's been a weakness, and one of the more hand-wringing debate topics around these parts for most of the year. We finished with several more sacks on the season than the Redskins, and yet their fans seem to shrug it off thinking they'll still get to Wilson just fine. Sometimes I wish we had that optimism.

While I don't think we'll sack RGIII I think we'll be able to contain him. We're fast, just not good enough to shed the pass block. Unfortunately RGIII is a solid pocket passer. Unfortunately for him, we eat pocket passers for lunch.

Sherman bait time!

LuvMySkins · Jan 3, 2013

Point out where Skins fans are saying they'll get to Wilson just fine please? I think most of us are well aware of our defensive problems. Especially with pressuring the QB. The Cowboys game surprised all of us with both the amount of blitzing we did and the effectiveness of it.

camdawg · Jan 3, 2013

I think the folks that have mentioned that a lack of pass rush will hurt the Seahawks chances are right on the money. That played a big role in our last two losses against Miami and Detroit. Our struggling to block Soliai and Wake when we wanted to run the ball also killed us against the Phins.

Not to mention getting gashed in the run game ourselves against the Phins, and the first San Fran game.

As usual, the team that wins the line of scrimmage battle will win the game.

RolandDeschain · Jan 3, 2013

rdskns4eva":16zs7c9l said:
We have a top 5 offense.

Wait, are you talking yards, points or Pro Football focus stats? Just want to be certain because on this board cause it seems like Pro Football focus are the only stats people look at on here.

Uh, we don't really look at Pro Football Focus around here. We primarily use Football Outsiders, and they have your offense ranked 6th. They're also by FAR the best stats website out there. If you disagree or aren't sure, read the basics of how they calculate their statistics: http://footballoutsiders.com/info/methods They factor in how good your opponents are. Quick example; QB1 and QB2 have identical stats across the board for a particular game, but QB1 took 3 sacks, and QB2 took 2 sacks. If the opponent QB2 faced has a far weaker pass rush than QB1's opponent, QB1 has a better ranking despite worse stats because they factor in how good the opponent is. There's a lot more to it than that, which you can read the basics of on the link I just posted, and I recommend that you do so. Stats can and do lie, but Football Outsiders has by far the most "truthful" stats, you might say. DVOA = win.

Yards are almost irrelevant. Look at the Lions, 6,540 total offense yards, good for 3rd in the league; yet they finished 4-12. The Redskins finished the season ranked 4th in points per game, but Football Outsiders penalizes you some for it because of the strength (or lack thereof, in your case) of your opponents.

kmedic · Jan 3, 2013

jlwaters1":hitaw0mc said:
kmedic":hitaw0mc said:

Sgt. Largent":hitaw0mc said:

If our coaching staff, Wilson and our O-Line don't effectively protect against the blitz.

Shanahan and his staff knows that he's outmatched personnel wise, so he's going to do what they did in the Dallas game, blitz the hell out of Wilson to force mistakes and long down and distances. We saw the Rams do it last game, which resulted in six first half sacks and WAY TOO MANY 2nd/3rd and longs.

This game should be a bout quick hits, rollouts, draws, screens and big passing plays down field. If if takes Sweezy and the rest of the O-Line well into the 2nd half like the Rams game to get their protection issues figured out, it could be a long day for our offense.

Click to expand...

This game won't be lost because our offense wasn't good enough. This game will be lost because our defense couldn't hold RGIII and his WR's in the 4th quarter for a game-winning FG/TD. Our defense has not yet proven to anyone that they can stop an opposing offense on the road in the 4th quarter when the game is on the line.

Click to expand...

That's not true. They did it twice against Carolina- First in stopping Newton inside the 2 yard line and then Irvin's strip-sack of Newton to end the game.

Firstly, since that game, they've lost to Detroit and Miami both in the 4th quarter after the defense couldn't hold the lead. They also would have lost the game in Chicago if it hadn't been for the heroics of RW.

Secondly, that game against Carolina we got extremely lucky. Remember they drove down the field and had 1st and goal to put the game away. There was a wide open TE in the end zone and thanks to Newton's horrible throw we got off the hook....barely.

I haven't seen our defense make a "play" late in the 4th quarter in those situations to ice the game. Every single time on the road in a close game the opposing team has driven down the field and either won it or tied (or in the case of Carolina choked).

I'm not saying that we're gonna lose this week's game, but if we do, I would bet money this is the way it will occur.

rdskns4eva · Jan 3, 2013

RolandDeschain":27de7e4g said:
rdskns4eva":27de7e4g said:

We have a top 5 offense.

Wait, are you talking yards, points or Pro Football focus stats? Just want to be certain because on this board cause it seems like Pro Football focus are the only stats people look at on here.

Click to expand...

Uh, we don't really look at Pro Football Focus around here. We primarily use Football Outsiders, and they have your offense ranked 6th. They're also by FAR the best stats website out there. If you disagree or aren't sure, read the basics of how they calculate their statistics: http://footballoutsiders.com/info/methods They factor in how good your opponents are. Quick example; QB1 and QB2 have identical stats across the board for a particular game, but QB1 took 3 sacks, and QB2 took 2 sacks. If the opponent QB2 faced has a far weaker pass rush than QB1's opponent, QB1 has a better ranking despite worse stats because they factor in how good the opponent is. There's a lot more to it than that, which you can read the basics of on the link I just posted, and I recommend that you do so. Stats can and do lie, but Football Outsiders has by far the most "truthful" stats, you might say. DVOA = win.

Yards are almost irrelevant. Look at the Lions, 6,540 total offense yards, good for 3rd in the league; yet they finished 4-12. The Redskins finished the season ranked 4th in points per game, but Football Outsiders penalizes you some for it because of the strength (or lack thereof, in your case) of your opponents.

Sorry, I meant to say Pro Football Outsiders.

I dont think yards are irrelevant to a certain degree...passing yards can be, but not rushing yards. I dont think anyone is saying that Petersons yards are irrelevant. It depends on the context. I said in another post that passing yards are the most overrated stat in football today because everyone throws for 4000+ yards a year now.

Also, while I do like the stats breakdown on PFO, if you are ranked in the top 5 in points and yards and are top 5 in the NFL in turnover ratio (the most important stat of them all), you're doing something right.

RolandDeschain · Jan 3, 2013

You guys have a very good offense, I'm not saying otherwise; but it's not top 5 by the best metric out there, is all. Though, very close to it.

The Only Way I See the Skins Winning is.............

Sgt. Largent

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jlwaters1

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SonicHawk

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LuvMySkins

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camdawg

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RolandDeschain

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kmedic

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rdskns4eva

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RolandDeschain

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