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 Post subject: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:57 pm 
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You have to be an Insider subscriber to see the article but ESPN.com has a story up by Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders about the year's best and worst QB's according to FO's metrics and Russell Wilson is the head of the rookie pack. In fact RW surpassed Matt Ryan for the top rookie season performance ever in their database. Pretty remarkable stuff.


1) Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: 1,014 DYAR (867 passing DYAR, 147 rushing)
2) Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: 838 DYAR (729 passing DYAR, 109 rushing)
3) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: 379 DYAR (255 passing DYAR, 124 rushing)
4) Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: 39 DYAR (37 passing DYAR, 2 rushing)
5) Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns: -266 DYAR (-290 passing DYAR, 24 rushing)


http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8795870/nfl-year-best-worst-qbs

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:59 pm 
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Russell Wilson=*

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:14 pm 
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Statistics are sure getting hard to follow. I don't even know what DYAR means.

I can't get a feel even to evaluate team ranking anymore. Used to ponder the rankings as a kid looking at the paper. For example, how can I get a read on offensive scoring per game with defensive points stripped out? I'd really like to get a feel for the Redskins this year during the week leading up to the game.

Does anybody do a great statistical analysis that you don't have to pay to look at?


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:17 pm 
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Thats pretty great!

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:20 pm 
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Starrman44 wrote:
Statistics are sure getting hard to follow. I don't even know what DYAR means.

I can't get a feel even to evaluate team ranking anymore. Used to ponder the rankings as a kid looking at the paper. For example, how can I get a read on offensive scoring per game with defensive points stripped out? I'd really like to get a feel for the Redskins this year during the week leading up to the game.

Does anybody do a great statistical analysis that you don't have to pay to look at?


I *think* DYAR is defense-adjusted yards above replacement. Basically, it accounts for the quality of the defense, and outlines how many yards more than a replacement QB Wilson accounts for against those defenses based on his play. I really like FO's metrics, because they look beyond raw stats and tell you exactly how well each player is faring compared to averages against the specific defenses or offenses they have faced.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:47 pm 
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Wow ... see how far back the second placed guy is ... and see where Brandan Weeden is placed ... His numbers are even negative.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:13 pm 
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DYAR is basically the NFL equivalent of WAR from baseball. I like WAR a lot more, but DYAR has it's uses.

Lewin Career forecast undershot, and they still didn't have enough balls to run with it without adding a *. Love it.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:30 pm 
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joeseahawks wrote:
Wow ... see how far back the second placed guy is ... and see where Brandan Weeden is placed ... His numbers are even negative.


lol see how far back 3rd is from second..damn....


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:57 pm 
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Starrman44 wrote:
Statistics are sure getting hard to follow. I don't even know what DYAR means.

I can't get a feel even to evaluate team ranking anymore. Used to ponder the rankings as a kid looking at the paper. For example, how can I get a read on offensive scoring per game with defensive points stripped out? I'd really like to get a feel for the Redskins this year during the week leading up to the game.

Does anybody do a great statistical analysis that you don't have to pay to look at?

Here you go. There's also defensive points per game and special teams points per game on the sidebar.

And if you want more stats, this page links to every single one the website has.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:25 am 
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Thanks for the link,
I enjoyed looking at the defensive stats and seeing the Seahawks at or near the top in every category. They need to keep this up for four more games.
Go Hawks!


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:43 am 
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Thanks for sharing this.

IMO, it has been Russell Wilson and RG3 as contenders for best rookie QB and Offensive Rookie of the Year. I know i'm being a homer here and Luck should be in the debate. But honestly, even if I wasn't a Seahawks fan, I would argue for Russell Wilson as the top QB out of the 2012 draft class. The fact that Russ is even in the discussion, being a third round pick that was constantly looked over because of his height. It's just amazing, the hurdles he has jumped to be where he's at.

The best part, Wilson is a rookie. He has improved more over a single season than I've ever seen any player in NFL history. I am sure there were some players who have improved and definitely accomplished more, but I'm just saying, in the time I have been an NFL fan. No one has looked as sharp as Russell Wilson, especially in the second half of the season. We literally watched this kid go from raw talent to legit NFL starting QB caliber in sixteen games. The fact that he is going to get better as his career progresses is downright scary (for opposing teams).

I doubt there are any teams in the NFL right now that would truthfully say they wouldn't want Russ on their team. Even if its not as an immediate starting quarterback, but a backup rookie that's learning under a seasoned vet like Brady, Manning or Brees. That is exactly what type of QB the league saw Wilson as, a "project". Someone that is supposed to sit behind a veteran for a couple seasons and 'develop'. Fortunately for us, that is not the type of player he is. Russ is a starter, a franchise QB, and he's proven it already.

Didn't seem like Wilson had a significantly hard time beating Matt Flynn out of the starting job. I really doubt Russ would have been able to beat out a QB on most other teams though. I think he would have been a starter on a team like the 49ers, had they drafted Wilson instead of Kaepernick. No doubt in my mind that he could have beat Alex Smith out of a job, although the thought of Russell Wilson in a Niners uniform makes me sick to my stomach now..

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:55 am 
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Perfundle wrote:
Starrman44 wrote:
Statistics are sure getting hard to follow. I don't even know what DYAR means.

I can't get a feel even to evaluate team ranking anymore. Used to ponder the rankings as a kid looking at the paper. For example, how can I get a read on offensive scoring per game with defensive points stripped out? I'd really like to get a feel for the Redskins this year during the week leading up to the game.

Does anybody do a great statistical analysis that you don't have to pay to look at?

Here you go. There's also defensive points per game and special teams points per game on the sidebar.

And if you want more stats, this page links to every single one the website has.


Thanks. That's pretty cool...


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN/Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson best rookie QB
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:45 am 
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This is the link to QB rankings on FO.com. It also explains DYAR. I post a link to a Team DVOA for SEA v RED earlier.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb


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