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 Post subject: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:28 am 
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"So you're saying there's a chance???"

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds


Last edited by Greenhell on Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:31 am 
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Atlanta has a much higher chance of going to the NFC Championship (understandable given that they have to win one home game and we have to win two road games) yet they have a lower SB win chance. Weird. Go Hawks.

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:35 am 
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I think it's interesting that we have the 4th highest odds to go to the SB seeing that unless we play Minnesota at some point, we will have to win all games on the road. I guess we are not as bad on the road as the media makes us out to be.


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:36 am 
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Even the stats are saying the Donkeys have the best chance at winning the SB in NOLA. Go figure. Mannings birth hometown. Ugh!


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:08 am 
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dumb or dumber :) - love that quote


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:20 am 
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Greenhell wrote:
Even the stats are saying the Donkeys have the best chance at winning the SB in NOLA. Go figure. Mannings birth hometown. Ugh!


If the Seahawks don't win the Super Bowl I want the Broncos to.

Now this is confusing, because I spent so many years hating horse-smile Elway and his team, but I'd like to see Manning get another Super Bowl in the Manning-Brady debate. Brady is top notch but I've always considered Manning to be a level above him because he's a mastermind; Brady's the ultimate play executor. I think too much emphasis is put on Super Bowl wins when we're talking about players, particularly QBs. Marino doesn't get as much credit as Elway (even though I think he and Manning are the best since I started watching football) because of the Super Bowl vacancy.


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:38 pm 
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bmorepunk wrote:
Greenhell wrote:
Even the stats are saying the Donkeys have the best chance at winning the SB in NOLA. Go figure. Mannings birth hometown. Ugh!


If the Seahawks don't win the Super Bowl I want the Broncos to.

Now this is confusing, because I spent so many years hating horse-smile Elway and his team, but I'd like to see Manning get another Super Bowl in the Manning-Brady debate. Brady is top notch but I've always considered Manning to be a level above him because he's a mastermind; Brady's the ultimate play executor. I think too much emphasis is put on Super Bowl wins when we're talking about players, particularly QBs. Marino doesn't get as much credit as Elway (even though I think he and Manning are the best since I started watching football) because of the Super Bowl vacancy.


NEVER! I never want to see Manning or Denver ever win another Super Bowl. You see, I live in Colorado and the rivalry between myself and friends who are Bronco fans still runs deep after all these years. Still to this day, no respect and they think the Hawks are less of a team. Screw that!


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:00 pm 
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It's so amusing when statisticians and other non-scientists run a HUGE number of test simulations using the same deterministic seed data without any account for stochastic drift. As if our grand, bizarre, chaotic universe can be so easily described.

True non-determinism can not be simulated by rolling a dice with a fixed number of faces an infinite number of times. You must roll a dice with an infinite number of faces, and the number of times is unimportant.

Therefore, their results are mathematically less accurate than having a drunken blind man pick names from a hat at random.


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:06 pm 
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HansGruber wrote:
Therefore, their results are mathematically less accurate than having a drunken blind man pick names from a hat at random.


Depends, is it a top hat or a sombrero? budweiser or tequila?

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:13 pm 
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HansGruber wrote:
It's so amusing when statisticians and other non-scientists run a HUGE number of test simulations using the same deterministic seed data without any account for stochastic drift. As if our grand, bizarre, chaotic universe can be so easily described.

True non-determinism can not be simulated by rolling a dice with a fixed number of faces an infinite number of times. You must roll a dice with an infinite number of faces, and the number of times is unimportant.

Therefore, their results are mathematically less accurate than having a drunken blind man pick names from a hat at random.

LOL, So what you're saying, is that these odds are predicated by a desired outcome of these prognosticators?, LOL,if so, I agree


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff odds football outsiders
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:14 pm 
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SNDavidson wrote:
HansGruber wrote:
Therefore, their results are mathematically less accurate than having a drunken blind man pick names from a hat at random.


Depends, is it a top hat or a sombrero? budweiser or tequila?



Mmmmm tequilla...and I'll be wearing my sombrero tonight.


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