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 Post subject: Seahawks Statistical Superbowl Chances
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:15 pm 
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Really cool article from Football Outsiders that shows a statistical Superbowl advantage to the Seahawks (plus addressing home/away).
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-r ... oa-ratings

Article also has a really intersting call out about NFC West Team are the only one's with a statistical home field advantage.

"What makes Seattle's big home-field advantage special is that it actually seems to exist. Well, that's not quite right -- home-field advantage pretty much exists for every team. However, when you look closer at home-field advantage over a period of several years, almost every team generally has the same home-field advantage, which in DVOA works out to about 8.5% on offense and 8.5% on defense. Teams will see their home-field advantage bounce up and down if you only look at things in eight-game periods that coincide with specific seasons, but if you put together six or seven years of data you are going to end up close to 8.5% difference most of the time. The biggest exception seems to be the four NFC West teams, which over the last decade have enjoyed the four largest home-field advantages in the league. And of those four teams, the biggest exception by far is Seattle. You may remember an article that Bill Barnwell wrote in Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 which looked at point differential at home compared to on the road between 2002 and 2010. Seattle outscored its opponents by an average of 11.7 more points at home during those years. The other three NFC West teams were between 9.3 and 9.5, and the only other team above 8.5 was Baltimore at 9.2."


Last edited by Shock2k on Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Seahawks Statistical Superbowl Chances
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:34 pm 
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Link?

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 Post subject: Re: Seahawks Statistical Superbowl Chances
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:43 pm 
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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-r ... oa-ratings
Sorry about that.


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 Post subject: Re: Seahawks Statistical Superbowl Chances
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:11 pm 
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Improbable but imagine if Sea got the second seed, bye, and two home playoff games. That's by far the easiest path to NO.


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 Post subject: Re: Seahawks Statistical Superbowl Chances
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:14 pm 
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I like it, let's go with that.


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 Post subject: Re: Seahawks Statistical Superbowl Chances
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:25 am 
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So this means we don't have to play the games just go right to New Orleans?

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 Post subject: Re: Seahawks Statistical Superbowl Chances
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:29 am 
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