Game plan for Kaepernick: Force him out of the pocket?

kearly":3c9743v4 said:

Something to remember is that a QB throwing outside the pocket is usually one that is facing or having just escaped imminent pressure. Kaepernick is a mechanical QB- meaning that if everything goes to plan he's effective, but when things go to hell he tends to shut down mentally. That probably explains the gap in his numbers. Kaepernick has padded his stats on a few big plays that went according to plan in every game.

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Thats pretty much incorrect at every level.

amill87":3miaztl8 said:

kearly":3miaztl8 said:

Something to remember is that a QB throwing outside the pocket is usually one that is facing or having just escaped imminent pressure. Kaepernick is a mechanical QB- meaning that if everything goes to plan he's effective, but when things go to hell he tends to shut down mentally. That probably explains the gap in his numbers. Kaepernick has padded his stats on a few big plays that went according to plan in every game.

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First, I find myself agreeing with you way too often nowadays, it must be the power of Wilson.

Second, this is pretty much my observation as well. Kaep lives off the big play. I would be very curious to see if anyone can find a stat on drives of 80 or more yards that Kaep has completed without a big play.

I already hear the argument that a big play counts for just as many points as a sustained time consuming drive but the flaw in big plays is they are harder to come by. 90% of the time when a big play happens it is because a player(s) made a mistake. While possible, it is more difficult to make another player make a mistake and create that opening.

This is ultimately why I think Harbaugh made his first mistake. Alex Smith, while not flashy, should a consistent ability to sustain drives. Kaep has much more "wow" ability but I think he will struggle with consistency.

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Well I disagree with the poster that you are agreeing with, but I do actually think there is some truth to your second point. Kaep DOES live off the big play and that IS a big reason he's in there. I do not agree however that the 49ers would be better off with Alex. Alex Smiths 3rd down rate is HORRIBLE. He doesn't get too many of those long drives either...AND he doesn't make the big plays.

Kaeps 3rd down rate isn't so hot right now either, but those chunk plays are what the 49ers have been missing.

We'll just have to see if he is able to get any of those against the Seahawks. I don't agree tho that big plays are just because someone made a mistake. Big plays can be engineered by scheming matchups. FOr example, the 49ers got 2 of them for TDs against the Pats by putting the FS in a bind and forcing him who to cover down the field.. They also got their game winner big play when the Pats sent an all out blitz and got cover 0 coverage leaving Crab 1 on 1 on a DB....and thats not good for DBs.

kearly":7uc9vuzt said:

Something to remember is that a QB throwing outside the pocket is usually one that is facing or having just escaped imminent pressure. Kaepernick is a mechanical QB- meaning that if everything goes to plan he's effective, but when things go to hell he tends to shut down mentally. That probably explains the gap in his numbers. Kaepernick has padded his stats on a few big plays that went according to plan in every game.

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no offense or anything, but that may be the worst take on Kaepernick I've ever seen. There have been numerous examples of him improvising (two notable ones in the New England game, where he did an eye fake on a pass to Vernon Davis then hit Delaney Walker for a touchdown, and then the game winning scoring pass to Crabtree where the play was supposed to go elsewhere according to Harbaugh). Saying he's mechanical is just wishful thinking. And everyone's stats get padded on big plays that go according to plan. The eye test says he's effective out of the pocket, he can throw on the run with many different angles, and he's always looking downfield to throw rather than looking to run. It's likely the discrepancy in the stats is due to sample size.

Marvin49":384nk93c said:

kearly":384nk93c said:

Something to remember is that a QB throwing outside the pocket is usually one that is facing or having just escaped imminent pressure. Kaepernick is a mechanical QB- meaning that if everything goes to plan he's effective, but when things go to hell he tends to shut down mentally. That probably explains the gap in his numbers. Kaepernick has padded his stats on a few big plays that went according to plan in every game.

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Thats pretty much incorrect at every level.

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Why am I not surprised to see you guys jump to defend Kaepernick?

I know you guys haven't been here long, but Kearly's one of the most credible guys on the board. You might not like what he says, but that doesn't mean you should flat out disagree with him, which looks to be a common theme whenever he mentions something negative about the 49ers.

hawksfan515":t1e4ezld said:

Marvin49":t1e4ezld said:

kearly":t1e4ezld said:

Something to remember is that a QB throwing outside the pocket is usually one that is facing or having just escaped imminent pressure. Kaepernick is a mechanical QB- meaning that if everything goes to plan he's effective, but when things go to hell he tends to shut down mentally. That probably explains the gap in his numbers. Kaepernick has padded his stats on a few big plays that went according to plan in every game.

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Thats pretty much incorrect at every level.

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Why am I not surprised to see you guys jump to defend Kaepernick?

I know you guys haven't been here long, but Kearly's one of the most credible guys on the board. You might not like what he says, but that doesn't mean you should flat out disagree with him, which looks to be a common theme whenever he mentions something negative about the 49ers.

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I don't care who he is. If he says something I agree with I'll agree with him. When he says stuff that's completely false I'll disagree. So far I've heard him essentially say that Kaep is a "One-Read" QB who can't create anything and his stats only look good because some well designed plays have "padded his stats".

Sorry, but that's ludicrous.

I'd like to think that I'm a fairly well respected poster on my own board, but if I told a Seahawks fan there that Wilson was a one read QB who couldn't create...you'd find that pretty amusing as well. I'd also be wrong....just as Kearly is here.

I get that you might be inclined to agree with him based on your respect for him. Thats all good. That's a good thing. There are posters like that on every board. I don't however have to agree with him when he says something that's flat false just because YOU respect him.

I don't care who he is. If he says something I agree with I'll agree with him. When he says stuff that's completely false I'll disagree. So far I've heard him essentially say that Kaep is a "One-Read" QB who can't create anything and his stats only look good because some well designed plays have "padded his stats".

Sorry, but that's ludicrous.

I'd like to think that I'm a fairly well respected poster on my own board, but if I told a Seahawks fan there that Wilson was a one read QB who couldn't create...you'd find that pretty amusing as well. I'd also be wrong....just as Kearly is here.

I get that you might be inclined to agree with him based on your respect for him. Thats all good. That's a good thing. There are posters like that on every board. I don't however have to agree with him when he says something that's flat false just because YOU respect him.[/quote][/quote][/quote]

Pretty sure Heath Evans on NFL network had a breakdown of Kaepernick showing that he definitely stares down the guy he is throwing to the majority of the time. I don't think Kaepernick has enough games under his belt to really judge him yet. Usually takes most NFL teams having 5 or 6 games of film on a guy to really get a good solid read for how they play and to gameplan defensively for them. Even as a Seahawks fan i have a lot of respect for the 49ers. I won't lie in the fact that i am worried that you can beat us. Our run defense hasn't been the same since that first game and adding Kaepernick to that equation complicates things even more. I respect Kaepernick as a runner but not so much as a passer just yet. But i think you guys will find that Russell has gotten immensely better since the first matchup and you guys have added a more explosive element to the QB position on offense. Will be interesting to see what happens in this game. But teams don't come into our house and win to often. GL on sunday. Should be a great game. GO HAWKS!

Kelly.Orr":24g60zl8 said:

I don't care who he is. If he says something I agree with I'll agree with him. When he says stuff that's completely false I'll disagree. So far I've heard him essentially say that Kaep is a "One-Read" QB who can't create anything and his stats only look good because some well designed plays have "padded his stats".

Sorry, but that's ludicrous.

I'd like to think that I'm a fairly well respected poster on my own board, but if I told a Seahawks fan there that Wilson was a one read QB who couldn't create...you'd find that pretty amusing as well. I'd also be wrong....just as Kearly is here.

I get that you might be inclined to agree with him based on your respect for him. Thats all good. That's a good thing. There are posters like that on every board. I don't however have to agree with him when he says something that's flat false just because YOU respect him.

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[/quote][/quote]

Pretty sure Heath Evans on NFL network had a breakdown of Kaepernick showing that he definitely stares down the guy he is throwing to the majority of the time. I don't think Kaepernick has enough games under his belt to really judge him yet. Usually takes most NFL teams having 5 or 6 games of film on a guy to really get a good solid read for how they play and to gameplan defensively for them. Even as a Seahawks fan i have a lot of respect for the 49ers. I won't lie in the fact that i am worried that you can beat us. Our run defense hasn't been the same since that first game and adding Kaepernick to that equation complicates things even more. I respect Kaepernick as a runner but not so much as a passer just yet. But i think you guys will find that Russell has gotten immensely better since the first matchup and you guys have added a more explosive element to the QB position on offense. Will be interesting to see what happens in this game. But teams don't come into our house and win to often. GL on sunday. Should be a great game. GO HAWKS![/quote]

I'm pretty sure Heath Evans is a complete moron. LOL. Can't stand that guy.

Both Trent Dilfer and Steve Young have said something very different. I'll trust the guys who have played the position...plus my own eyes.

Your comment about being worried about his legs is fairly typical of the way Kaep is being covered in the media. Yes. He's mobile. He looks like a freakin' deer out there sometimes. That's NOT what has SF fans excited about him tho.

Its his passing that has shocked us. HUGE arm. Accuracy down the field. CALM. Doesn't get nervous. Has made some young QB mistakes, but doesn't make them twice.

I've seen Wilson play and I've been impressed. I think you guys are in for a treat watching Kaep. ;-) I think these 2 teams are going to be fighting for this division every year and these 2 young QBs are part of a new breed of NFL stars.

Marvin49":1sumsyah said:

Its his passing that has shocked us. HUGE arm. Accuracy down the field. CALM. Doesn't get nervous. Has made some young QB mistakes, but doesn't make them twice.

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First, about Kearly. I have disagreed with him quite often. I respect him, he works his ass off to study the game and has a great football mind. But I don't agree with him just because of those things, I agree with him on this because he's seeing what Niner fans are putting blinders on to avoid seeing.

Now on to your quote. I think you guys have had to deal with Smith for so long, ANYBODY that can throw the ball down field is going to get you excited. From what I've seen of him, he is just as likely to miss a deep throw as he is to connect on it.

The mental side of being a QB is the hardest part. It's why so many QBs that are accurate, athletic, and have a big arm fail. And once a QB is outside the pocket (most of the time, designed roll outs are an anomaly), the play has actually started to break down. Things are no longer as the coaches drew it up and it falls on the QB to now re-read the defense and try to find an opening quickly.

The difference between the QBR from the inside the pocket to outside the pocket for Kaep is staggering. It lends merit to Kearly's view that Kaep isn't as good when plays don't go perfect. We can discredit QBR all day (again I know it's not perfect) but it does paint a generic picture of what is going on on the field.

Marvin49":23663gfg said:

I don't care who he is. If he says something I agree with I'll agree with him. When he says stuff that's completely false I'll disagree. So far I've heard him essentially say that Kaep is a "One-Read" QB who can't create anything and his stats only look good because some well designed plays have "padded his stats".

Sorry, but that's ludicrous.

I'd like to think that I'm a fairly well respected poster on my own board, but if I told a Seahawks fan there that Wilson was a one read QB who couldn't create...you'd find that pretty amusing as well. I'd also be wrong....just as Kearly is here.

I get that you might be inclined to agree with him based on your respect for him. Thats all good. That's a good thing. There are posters like that on every board. I don't however have to agree with him when he says something that's flat false just because YOU respect him.

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I think you better go back and read Kearly's post again because I don't know how you get that our of what he said. Where did he say, or even imply "one-read" or padded stats? Sure you're free to disagree with what he says, but I'd suggest that you try to understand it a little better before you start disagreeing with it...otherwise the credibility you are undermining is your own...

amill87":2j8hh0cb said:

Marvin49":2j8hh0cb said:

Its his passing that has shocked us. HUGE arm. Accuracy down the field. CALM. Doesn't get nervous. Has made some young QB mistakes, but doesn't make them twice.

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First, about Kearly. I have disagreed with him quite often. I respect him, he works his ass off to study the game and has a great football mind. But I don't agree with him just because of those things, I agree with him on this because he's seeing what Niner fans are putting blinders on to avoid seeing.

Now on to your quote. I think you guys have had to deal with Smith for so long, ANYBODY that can throw the ball down field is going to get you excited. From what I've seen of him, he is just as likely to miss a deep throw as he is to connect on it.

The mental side of being a QB is the hardest part. It's why so many QBs that are accurate, athletic, and have a big arm fail. And once a QB is outside the pocket (most of the time, designed roll outs are an anomaly), the play has actually started to break down. Things are no longer as the coaches drew it up and it falls on the QB to now re-read the defense and try to find an opening quickly.

The difference between the QBR from the inside the pocket to outside the pocket for Kaep is staggering. It lends merit to Kearly's view that Kaep isn't as good when plays don't go perfect. We can discredit QBR all day (again I know it's not perfect) but it does paint a generic picture of what is going on on the field.

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LOL.

The "blinders" comment is funny. We actually WATCH the Niner games. We see him play every week. I've watched most of his college games as well (tenyardtorrents is a wonderful thing). You expect me to believe that a Seahawk fan can somehow break Kaep down better than WE can when we watch him all the time? Seriously? Do you think I could possibly give you better insight into Russell Wilson than the better posters on your board can? Of course not. I don't even try.

The QBR thing....LOL. That is a completely useless stat. Kaep has the second highest QBR in the NFL behind Manning....but I still think the thing is worthless.

You are looking at numbers alone. Would the numbers tell you that he had a nearly 50 yard completion while scrambling to Michael Crabtree vs the Saints (GREAT throw) that was called back on a holding call? Would it tell you that he made a great throw on the run to Delanie Walker vs the Rams that should have been the game winner had Walker not dropped it? Would it tell you that he's adept at getting away, constantly keeping his eyes downfield and throwing the ball away at the last second to avoid the sack? Would it tell you that on his second NFL TD he looked left to his first covered reciever, moved to his second reciever, moved to his left and slightly backwards coming to his third read (Michael Crabtree who broke off his route) and threw the TD like it was nothing. Link Below...at 2:17. Also note on the first TD, Davis was his second option.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxtqcPPM_3E

It's WAY too small a sample size to make anything of the QBR. An extra 70+ yards and a TD would make it look very different.

The excitement about Kaep has nothing to do with blinders. The blinders here are in Seattle where peeps really don't want the Niners to have a great QB (and yes, it's too early to call him that). You guys should hear Steve Young on the radio here. He's beside himself over Kaep.

gtcotcakya":3cbvmac4 said:

Marvin49":3cbvmac4 said:

I don't care who he is. If he says something I agree with I'll agree with him. When he says stuff that's completely false I'll disagree. So far I've heard him essentially say that Kaep is a "One-Read" QB who can't create anything and his stats only look good because some well designed plays have "padded his stats".

Sorry, but that's ludicrous.

I'd like to think that I'm a fairly well respected poster on my own board, but if I told a Seahawks fan there that Wilson was a one read QB who couldn't create...you'd find that pretty amusing as well. I'd also be wrong....just as Kearly is here.

I get that you might be inclined to agree with him based on your respect for him. Thats all good. That's a good thing. There are posters like that on every board. I don't however have to agree with him when he says something that's flat false just because YOU respect him.

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I think you better go back and read Kearly's post again because I don't know how you get that our of what he said. Where did he say, or even imply "one-read" or padded stats? Sure you're free to disagree with what he says, but I'd suggest that you try to understand it a little better before you start disagreeing with it...otherwise the credibility you are undermining is your own...

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This isn't the only thread in which he has posted in regards to Kaep. I do my research and clearly have been playing more attention than you have.

Marvin49":39vk4luw said:

kearly":39vk4luw said:

Something to remember is that a QB throwing outside the pocket is usually one that is facing or having just escaped imminent pressure. Kaepernick is a mechanical QB- meaning that if everything goes to plan he's effective, but when things go to hell he tends to shut down mentally. That probably explains the gap in his numbers. Kaepernick has padded his stats on a few big plays that went according to plan in every game.

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Thats pretty much incorrect at every level.

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Okay, let's go back you your original response than and why don't you try to break it down again. Please explain why you disagree with THIS statement on every level.

Or actually, even better please give us your explanation for why the discrepency between the inside the pocket and outside the pocket numbers. That's what I'm trying to understand. If Kearly's explanation isn't right, what is yours?

Firstly, I completely agree about Heath Evans. The majority of the NFL network pundits are hall of famers/potential hall of famers, great players, or know a lot about the game. Heath Evans is none of those things!

Anyway, I feel before the Patriots game Kaep was good but I think people have got carried away with thinking he is a 'pocket passer', and he has dealt with the pressure well, but I still think Wilson has the edge. only 2 interceptions in his last 7 games and I'm not sure of Kaep's statistics but not sure he has had to make many big throws apart from in the game last week.

And also, nearly all young quarterbacks, including tim tebow can throw the ball well down field (they wudn't be in the NFL if their hand eye co-ordination wasn't amazing) so I don't think that quality means much because there are other attributes that separate the good from the great.

gtcotcakya":uoi5dchb said:

Marvin49":uoi5dchb said:

kearly":uoi5dchb said:

Something to remember is that a QB throwing outside the pocket is usually one that is facing or having just escaped imminent pressure. Kaepernick is a mechanical QB- meaning that if everything goes to plan he's effective, but when things go to hell he tends to shut down mentally. That probably explains the gap in his numbers. Kaepernick has padded his stats on a few big plays that went according to plan in every game.

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Thats pretty much incorrect at every level.

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Okay, let's go back you your original response than and why don't you try to break it down again. Please explain why you disagree with THIS statement on every level.

Or actually, even better please give us your explanation for why the discrepency between the inside the pocket and outside the pocket numbers. That's what I'm trying to understand. If Kearly's explanation isn't right, what is yours?

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Simply read my other posts on this very page.

So you believe an almost 70 point difference in QBR is due solely to sample size?

Really? :roll:

NornIron":ktj0po52 said:

Firstly, I completely agree about Heath Evans. The majority of the NFL network pundits are hall of famers/potential hall of famers, great players, or know a lot about the game. Heath Evans is none of those things!

Anyway, I feel before the Patriots game Kaep was good but I think people have got carried away with thinking he is a 'pocket passer', and he has dealt with the pressure well, but I still think Wilson has the edge. only 2 interceptions in his last 7 games and I'm not sure of Kaep's statistics but not sure he has had to make many big throws apart from in the game last week.

And also, nearly all young quarterbacks, including tim tebow can throw the ball well down field (they wudn't be in the NFL if their hand eye co-ordination wasn't amazing) so I don't think that quality means much because there are other attributes that separate the good from the great.

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LOL...Evans...Moron.

I'm not comparing Kaep to Wilson here. I did that on another thread, but I can only use numbers in that analysis because I don't see him play every game as I do with Kaep. My opinion on Wilson given what little I have seen is that he's very good and will probably be a thorn in the side of my Niners for years to come.

My argument here is specifically with the things people are telling themselves and the board about Kaepernick. It's nuts. Peeps clearly have NO idea what they are talking about. Kaep is FAR from perfect. He has had and issue with fumbling the snap (particularly in New England). He has taken a few sacks he shouldn't have because he was trying to push the ball downfield. He has thrown 2 picks that were clear mistakes (1 was a low snap that took his eyes off the D and he threw it right to a DB dropping into a zone, and the other was a play where he ran play action and he never got his head all the way around to spot the backside safety on a deep route to Moss). There is stuff he needs to work on to be sure...

...but it seems most peeps here are trying to write him off as a flash in the pan, or one trick pony, or whatever more out of HOPE then any actual real information.

gtcotcakya":1166nazj said:

So you believe an almost 70 point difference in QBR is due solely to sample size?

Really? :roll:

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Quite simply? Yes. Watch the games. Wonderful things happen when you put numbers in CONTEXT.

Kaep has 5 starts. FIVE. What did Wilsons #s look like after 5 games? Should I have drawn all my conclusions from those games? Perhaps WATCHING those games would have given me a different story.

Marvin49":3ko9g6zb said:

gtcotcakya":3ko9g6zb said:

So you believe an almost 70 point difference in QBR is due solely to sample size?

Really? :roll:

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Quite simply? Yes. Watch the games. Wonderful things happen when you put numbers in CONTEXT.

Kaep has 5 starts. FIVE. What did Wilsons #s look like after 5 games? Should I have drawn all my conclusions from those games? Perhaps WATCHING those games would have given me a different story.

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looking at what Sando wrote, guys with lots more games, like Alex Smith and Sam Bradford, never got better outside the pocket. Why is Kaepernick the exception?

Scottemojo":3h7sin9k said:

Marvin49":3h7sin9k said:

gtcotcakya":3h7sin9k said:

So you believe an almost 70 point difference in QBR is due solely to sample size?

Really? :roll:

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Quite simply? Yes. Watch the games. Wonderful things happen when you put numbers in CONTEXT.

Kaep has 5 starts. FIVE. What did Wilsons #s look like after 5 games? Should I have drawn all my conclusions from those games? Perhaps WATCHING those games would have given me a different story.

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looking at what Sando wrote, guys with lots more games, like Alex Smith and Sam Bradford, never got better outside the pocket. Why is Kaepernick the exception?

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OK...I don't know how else to put this...WATCH THE GAMES. He is ACCURATE outside the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield. When he was drafted Trent Dilfer said he was the most accurate QB he had ever seen on the run. If you don't believe me, I have in on Youtube as a part of all of the Niner picks that year. I also have a video of a bunch of his college film where he is...wait for it...running and throwing accurately downfield. I can supply that as well but my assumption is that you wouldn't want to waste your time watching Niner vids (I'd be the same way...lol).

This is college tape. I get that, but he has shown signs of the same stuff both in practice and in games. Some plays have been called back on holding and some have been drops by the TE/WR (Delanie Walker can be maddening at times).

Alex Smith and Sam Bradford have NEVER shown signs of that on any level. Alex in particular...and I like Alex...lol. My assumption isnt "yeah, he'll get better because they all do". Its that I'VE SEEN HIM DO IT!!

Marvin49":1zywcwr8 said:

OK...I don't know how else to put this...WATCH THE GAMES. He is ACCURATE outside the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield. When he was drafted Trent Dilfer said he was the most accurate QB he had ever seen on the run. If you don't believe me, I have in on Youtube as a part of all of the Niner picks that year. I also have a video of a bunch of his college film where he is...wait for it...running and throwing accurately downfield. I can supply that as well but my assumption is that you wouldn't want to waste your time watching Niner vids (I'd be the same way...lol).

This is college tape. I get that, but he has shown signs of the same stuff both in practice and in games. Some plays have been called back on holding and some have been drops by the TE/WR (Delanie Walker can be maddening at times).

Alex Smith and Sam Bradford have NEVER shown signs of that on any level. Alex in particular...and I like Alex...lol. My assumption isnt "yeah, he'll get better because they all do". Its that I'VE SEEN HIM DO IT!!

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So you have youtube highlights as your evidence?

I openly admit I haven't seen tons of Kaep but what I have seen from as a passer hasn't made think "wow he's one of the best in the league". His running ability scares me much more than his arm. I HAVE seen him miss wide open guys quite often in such a small sample size. Every QB misses guys but IMO I have seen an alarming amount of misses. Like I said, I think you guys like Kaep so much because he is NOT Alex Smith