Wilson vs. Kaep straight up.... who do you take?

RolandDeschain":32j26piu said:

I meant to include 1st in that list, Marvin. However, if one QB averages moving to his 3rd read say, 0.7 seconds faster than the other over the course of 5 games...That does tell something, in my opinion. I'm guessing that stat is available somewhere for a fee for signing up for stats, but I don't exactly feel like paying money to 5 different sites just to see if they have it, lol.

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RolandDeschain":19gks1u2 said:

Nothing tells you everything, "everything" is a money-crapping unicorn when it comes to stats. The best you can hope to do is get most of the way there, which Football Outsiders does brilliantly.

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Marvin49":3s4b31ep said:

Scottemojo":3s4b31ep said:

Niner fans have a distinct handicap in using numbers to say whether Kaepernick is better than Wilson; all the numbers say that Alex Smith should be the starter in San Fran.

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Uh...no they don't.

Kaeps average yard per COMPLETION is FAR, FAR higher than Alex and his overall numbers are comparable...which is really saying something considering Kaep has only started 5 games. Alex has also NEVER thrown 4 TDs in a game. Thier rushing statistics aren't even close.

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Marvin49":d6ykgyrv said:

RolandDeschain":d6ykgyrv said:

Kearly shutdown this thread with a shotgun. Nice work, broseph.

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Uh...he might have if he weren't WAY, WAY offbase with his very first comment.

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Marvin49":4ysamoxf said:

Try READING.

I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.Gotcha.

Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.Didn't they get within a Kyle Smith fumble of the SB last year? harbaugh is a good coach, but he didn't predict the future.

Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs. Bullshit. Alex got hurt while on a pretty good tear, and Harbie knows it was his cahnce to install his playmaker. And kaep is a playmaking gambler so far. Don't take offense, he is you future.

First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL.Dead last D in the NFL, right? Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002)Still not a great pass D, and I notice you left out his road trip to St Louis, where a highly ranked pass D kicked his ass. Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already? A playoff loss. That Smith would have probably won.

Thats what this move is about.

Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has febneded him Alex since the day he was drafted.

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Marvin49":82skv3lm said:

Try READING.

I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.

Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.

Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs.

First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002). Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already?

Thats what this move is about.

Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has febneded him Alex since the day he was drafted.

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kearly":1j13vv2t said:

I say this as someone who liked both QBs coming out of college.

Wilson's feel for the game is miles ahead of Kaepernick's. He progresses through reads with more frequency and without any discomfort. Kaepernick is pretty much a pure 1 read QB- he has shown the ability to switch reads on deep throws- when he has all day to throw it. Wilson runs a much more sophisticated offense than Kaepernick does and has a larger number of long drives (at least based on my viewing sample- I've seen three of Kaepernick's games now as a 49er). Wilson is also a more clutch QB in the end of games.

I think the big strength for Kaepernick is that he is a great athlete (though Wilson ran a better forty) with a great arm (Wilson's arm is also very good, but Kaepernick probably has one of the strongest arms in the NFL). He's a very nice fit for Harbaugh's system.

Remember that Harbaugh and Carroll are extremely similar coaches with extremely similar philosophies and the GM that built most of the 49ers current team had connections to Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson, just like Seattle's GM John Schneider does. According to an inside source we have, we heard that Kaepernick was higher on Seattle's board in 2011 than Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, and Christian Ponder. So this isn't about ripping Kaepernick. My heart sank when I saw the 49ers move up and nab him.

That said, statistics only tell you part of the story. In terms of results, the two are very close, but in terms of process, Wilson is way ahead. Kaepernick is still improving and I made the Josh Freeman comparison for a reason, because when Freeman has his act together he's a scary QB. Kaepernick isn't erratic like Freeman is, although I do think he needs to continue his growth or NFL defenses will expose him next season. He's a night and day performer when under pressure / not under pressure. Give him fits and he'll make mistakes- and that's not something you can say about Wilson. If anything he almost gets better when protection breaks down.

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Scottemojo":88urecvy said:

Marvin49":88urecvy said:

Try READING.

I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.Gotcha.

Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.Didn't they get within a Kyle Smith fumble of the SB last year? harbaugh is a good coach, but he didn't predict the future. Yes, but they can't count on not needing a dynamic passer every year. It was pretty clear that the 49ers had one weakness, and he wants to remove it.

Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs. Bullshit. Alex got hurt while on a pretty good tear, and Harbie knows it was his cahnce to install his playmaker. And kaep is a playmaking gambler so far. Don't take offense, he is you future. Not really clear here what's bullshit. I think we said the same thing.

First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL.Dead last D in the NFL, right?Still a very loud stadiumand hard place to play. Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002)Still not a great pass D, and I notice you left out his road trip to St Louis, where a highly ranked pass D kicked his assStill the hardest place in the NFL to play, and I left out St. Louis because there wasn't anything specific in that game that I thought was pertinent to the situation. Ya, he struggled there, but he still had a QB rating of 83 and threw the game-winning pass that Delanie Walker promptly dropped.. Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already? A playoff loss. That Smith would have probably won.Ya...not buying that. SF may very well lose a playoff game, but I highly doubt that Kaep will be the reason why. He's simply better. It may not all show in the numbers, but Kaep is better.

Thats what this move is about.

Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has defended Alex since the day he was drafted.

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themunn":224r5u8v said:

Marvin49":224r5u8v said:

Try READING.

I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.

Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.

Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs.

First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002). Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already?

Thats what this move is about.

Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has febneded him Alex since the day he was drafted.

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Average yard per completion is a stupid stat to judge someone on.
Kaepernick's yards per completion is 12.8
Tim Tebow's career average per completion is 14 yards

All you need to know

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hawksfan515":31bab483 said:

kearly":31bab483 said:

I say this as someone who liked both QBs coming out of college.

Wilson's feel for the game is miles ahead of Kaepernick's. He progresses through reads with more frequency and without any discomfort. Kaepernick is pretty much a pure 1 read QB- he has shown the ability to switch reads on deep throws- when he has all day to throw it. Wilson runs a much more sophisticated offense than Kaepernick does and has a larger number of long drives (at least based on my viewing sample- I've seen three of Kaepernick's games now as a 49er). Wilson is also a more clutch QB in the end of games.

I think the big strength for Kaepernick is that he is a great athlete (though Wilson ran a better forty) with a great arm (Wilson's arm is also very good, but Kaepernick probably has one of the strongest arms in the NFL). He's a very nice fit for Harbaugh's system.

Remember that Harbaugh and Carroll are extremely similar coaches with extremely similar philosophies and the GM that built most of the 49ers current team had connections to Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson, just like Seattle's GM John Schneider does. According to an inside source we have, we heard that Kaepernick was higher on Seattle's board in 2011 than Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, and Christian Ponder. So this isn't about ripping Kaepernick. My heart sank when I saw the 49ers move up and nab him.

That said, statistics only tell you part of the story. In terms of results, the two are very close, but in terms of process, Wilson is way ahead. Kaepernick is still improving and I made the Josh Freeman comparison for a reason, because when Freeman has his act together he's a scary QB. Kaepernick isn't erratic like Freeman is, although I do think he needs to continue his growth or NFL defenses will expose him next season. He's a night and day performer when under pressure / not under pressure. Give him fits and he'll make mistakes- and that's not something you can say about Wilson. If anything he almost gets better when protection breaks down.

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When do you think Kap will get exposed, if at all? Against the Hawks?

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NFSeahawks628":19a3eexi said:

You measure a Quarterback by super bowl wins.

Wilson will win it, Kaep won't.

/trollon

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NFSeahawks628":236aw0tc said:

I'll put money on Wilson out performing Kaep this Sunday.

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